Merry Bracket Christmas

In less than twenty four hours, we will not have to hear the term "bubble" for a solid eleven months. The brackets will be out and, after a couple hours of hearing every "expert" tell us who got screwed and left out of the tournament that should have gotten in, we can just sit back and dissect the actual road to the Final Four. Sadly, we will not get to sit through the annual Billy Packer/Jim Nantz attack on the tournament committee chairperson. I'll really miss that actually, highly entertaining.

Anyway, as many of you are well aware, I've been sitting around predicting the tournament field for the last six or seven years. It started out in college as a good way to stay awake in class from late-January through the tournament selection show and has evolved into a less-complicated-but-more-efficient Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. Last year, The Blue Team hit home 63/65 teams, which is really an average performance. That dastardly Joe Lunardi nailed the entire field. Screw him and the horse he rode in on.

2009 is a new year though, and I'm here striving for perfection. Keep in mind that the bubble has shrunk considerably in recent days, thanks to Cleveland St, Temple, & Southern Cal winning their conference tournaments. Each of these teams "stole" a bid, and Mississippi St remains to try and do so on Sunday. As of now, here are your last eight teams according to seed who are at-large squads in the tournmament: St. Mary's, San Diego St, Minnesota, Maryland, Dayton, Michigan, Texas A&M, Oklahoma St., and those are listed from the bottom up. I have the "out" teams as Arizona, Creighton, Penn St, Providence, Auburn, New Mexico, Florida, listed from the bubble down.

Simple math would show that if Mississippi St wins the SEC Tournament, they will take St. Mary's bid away. However, I am still hedging on St. Mary's vs San Diego St vs Arizona. I've seen the Wildcats a bunch of times and I know they have the most talent of those three; the question, though, is do they have the best resume? I think San Diego St is solid, but I am also hesitant due to Arizona's head-to-head victory over San Diego St. Past history has shown us that does not really play a factor with the committee. As you may recall, last year, Arizona benefitted from this scenario, as they had lost two games to Arizona St, yet made the field of 65 just ahead of the disappointed Sun Devils.

Without really delving into the why's and why not's of things, let's just look at The Blue Team's Field of 65:

I am still waiting on a few automatic bids as I type this, so apologies for having to fill in a league instead of a team. Please note, again, that this bracket assumes Mississippi St does not win the SEC title on Sunday. Adjustments will be made prior to the Selection Show, which is a 6pm Sunday evening.

The briefest explanation possible for what you may be thinking: yes, three Big East teams as one-seeds. I am not convinced the committee will do it, but UCONN has better wins than Memphis, period. Strangely, they both played Syracuse and Georgetown: UCONN split with Syracuse but lost to Georgetown while Memphis lost to both. I really think UCONN has better numbers than the Tigers. Either way, I assume the two teams will be sent out west and will be the number four and five overall seeds based on the S-curve. For my bracket, I assumed the regions as East, Midwest, South, West in that order.

As a brief aside, my official Five to Thrive will be written this week as part of the tournament preview. The teams I selected two weeks ago: Louisville (not sure they count anymore), Florida St, Tennessee, Purdue, VCU. Three of these teams have already gotten kind of hot, so I guess the cat is out of the bag there. Oh well, that's what I get for being lazy and not writing.

Finally, I would like to point out that I selected the 65 teams at my house this evening. However, I put my bracket together, seeding the teams and placing them in their regions, at Big Al's, a bar in Blacksburg. So yes, I sat at a high-top table with a Diet Coke and scibbled on a piece of paper while my friends played mini-Shuffleboard and downed pitchers of beer, keeping an eye on Louisville's dominate performance. I am not sure if that is dedication or nerdiness, but either way, that's how it went down yo.

Merriest of Bracket Days to everyone. Enjoy the last few conference tournament finals and get ready for a fun three weeks of madness. Everybody dance now...