A Buffet of Bracket Goodness

The 2009 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament field has been set and the road to the Final Four is finally laid out before us. Overall, the general consensus has been that this year's committee did a solid job, and I tend to agree. They were consistent across the perceived strength of the conferences and, in my opinion, got the top seeds right. I finished 64/65 on the bracket, missing Arizona (I had San Diego St in). No gripe there, I really thought Arizona had better wins, but figured the committee would go for a stronger Mountain West Conference or have pity on St. Mary's. Oh well. Bracketography nailed it, 65/65, while Joe Lunardi hit on 64/65 teams.

There are a few noticeable trends across the bracket (again, that's a sign of a job well done, because that means things are consistent). First, the committee really likes the Big East's strength. Three one-seeds, yes, but also a three for Syracuse following their tournament run. Also, Marquette remained pretty high (six-seed) despite a late-season swoon after Dominic James' season-ending injury. Second, the committee was also high on the Pac-10. A four-seed for Washington, was strong, but especially the ten-seed USC was rewarded with after winning the Pac-10 tournament. Of course, Arizona making the field was also good for the league. On the flip side, the ACC was not given as much prestige as some had thought. Wake Forest, FSU, and Clemson were all a seed line lower than I thought they would be. Also, the SEC was given harsh treatment, with an 8, 9, and 13 seed. I found that ironic considering the chairman of the committee is Mike Slive, the commissioner of the SEC.

Another thing that is consistent across this bracket is the equal strength found in each region. Last year, I was really appalled at how easy UCLA's region was; this year, none such region exists. Certain matchups may prove especially difficult for individual teams, and it looks like each one-seed has at least one such issue prior to the Elite Eight.

In the Midwest Region, Louisville will either see a feisty Siena squad or Ohio State (playing in Dayton, an hour or so from Columbus) in the second round. Arizona looks dangerous as can be, a la Villanova last year, as a team that just snuck in but has plenty of talent to advance. Doug Gottlieb made a great point on ESPN's show that Wake Forest could potentially see Arizona's zone defense in the second round, which could be a serious problem considering their issues when facing zones this season. A young-in-places Kansas team is staring at West Virginia's athleticism in the second round and Michigan St will either grind one out with BC or face a hot Southern Cal team. Louisville is still the best team in the region, but the Cards will have to earn a Final Four berth.

The West Region brings some potentially delicious matchups in the Sweet 16. If UCONN and Purdue can both navigate tricky second rounders, they would face off in Phoenix. Missouri's press should wear down Cornell, but the Bison will do their best to slow things down against an inexperienced foe. I wish Marquette was healthy, because to see their guards attack Mizzou would sure be fun. Memphis likely awaits to form a Tigers vs Tigers game in the tournament's third round. It seems to me that UCONN's toughest foe could indeed be Purdue, who is finally healthy and focused as a unit.

Over in the East Region, Pittsburgh's reward for a great season is either a tussle with Okie State or a horrendous date with Tennessee. The Vols run a high flex offense (the perimeter flex, a la Illinois or Ohio St, as opposed to Maryland and Boston College's interior or post flex) which forces the defense to fight through screens or switch. It also pulls the opposition's big men away from the lane and into easy foul trouble from trying to hedge the screens or guard smaller players off switches. DeJuan Blair in foul trouble could mean big trouble in that scenario. If the Panthers survive, they'd see Florida St (LOVE the 'Noles, more on that another day) or a really athletic Xavier team, or even a resilient Wisconsin team. No favors for Pitt. On the bottom half of the bracket, Villanova and UCLA are headed for a great second round game. That is, if the Bruins can survive Eric Maynor and VCU. Duke will be forced to play another small team in Texas, but a small team who is far more athletic than the Blue Devils. This region is, in my opinion, the one most likely to implode and give us a surprise or two. While Pittsburgh is a terrific team with a defense that never slumps, the road ahead of them is chock full of land mines.

Finally, the South Region and the beloved Tar Heels. I saw Radford play in person a few weeks back in the Big South Tournament final and really like their team. Artsiom Parakhouski is a talented big man and will relish the opportunity to body up with Psycho T. I was quite surprised to see LSU, a team that won a BCS conference regular-season title by three games, listed as an eight-seed. I do not think LSU over Butler is a foregone conclusion, but the Tigers are more athletic and bigger than a young Bulldogs unit. That very athleticism and a great coach, first-year head man Trent Johnson, scare me a bit. Illinois will be fortunate to escape Western Kentucky and Gonzaga could struggle with Akron. The Zags, though, are the team who could really present problems for Carolina thanks to a tremendous starting five and the nation's stingiest defense (#1 ranked field-goal percentage defense in America) in the form of a 2-3 zone. Down below, red-hot (and tired) Syracuse and another 2-3 zone will tangle with either Dionte Christmas and Temple's matchup zone or James Harden and former NC State-turned-Arizona State coach Herb Sendek in the second round. Yikes. Oklahoma's road to hoe is no better, with the 1-3-1 of Michigan and John Beilein or the diamond press of Clemson awaiting. Ugh. Carolina's chances honestly hinge on the right big toe of Tywon Lawson. If it heals, the Heels could at least see the mean streets of Detroit for one night.

All in all, a job well done by the selection committee, possibly the best I've ever seen. The balance and consistency are excellent and the right teams are mostly in the field. A much more successful process than the BCS, don't you think? Personally, I think we're in for a fun few weeks and hopefully a fun celebration on a particular street in Chapel Hill on April 6th/7th. Rah rah...