Hammer Time

I was going to come up with a clever intro to this column analyzing the brackets involving MC Hammer and the Tar Heels, but I lost my train of thought once I got to youtube and started watching the Too Legit to Quit video. Seriously, I can't remember where it was originally headed because I got up and broke out the old dance moves from second grade along with the video. And yes, this was in a shirt and tie at the office on my lunch break. Too Legit was actually my favorite Hammer track, along with "Have You Seen Her", which I belt out in the car and shower. "U Can't Touch This" is a bit overrated in my opinion...

Kind of like Duke! There, we did it. A successful segue from MC Hammer to college hoops. And I did not spell it "segway" and have to back space and look it up either!


Alright, focus. My goal today is to give some opinions on specific teams and some potential matchups that could have an effect on your bracket. There are not a lot of comprehensive tournament guides for the individual teams (lots of storylines, some players, and gimmick columns or ESPN, CBS Sports, SI, and others), so I am hoping that you will learn a few things that might be of service to your selections. USA Today does have a decent team-by-team with key stats, as does Yahoo! that I have found useful before. Then, I'll make my actual picks and put together a little something about the Tar Heels. For now, let's again go region-by-region starting with the...


Midwest Region:


Louisville is the favorite, of course. The Cardinals were originally part of my Five to Thrive a few weeks back, but played so well down the stretch that they no longer qualify for F2T status. Sad. I was terrified (yes, terrified) of Louisville being the two-seed in the Heels' region prior to their closing couple of weeks, making me quite relieved that both teams would have to win five games to play each other. What makes Louisville so good? Depth, great defense (a 3/4 court press that sags back into a 2-3 zone in the halfcourt), two stars capable of changing a game (Terrance Williams and Earl Clark), and a number of supporting cast guys who can light it up. And oh yeah, Rick Pitino is still a heckuva coach. Siena and Ohio St are both decent teams, but I just cannot see either hanging with Louisville for the full forty minutes.


Wake Forest, as alluded to on Sunday night, got a horrible draw. Arizona's zone, Utah's slow-it-down efficiency, and Cleveland State's athleticism are all issues. The Deacs will have to step it up to make it to the second weekend. This team had a rough time blending Ish Smith back into their starting lineup, as he has been turnover prone and is another guy who simply has no jump shot. Chas McFarland, on a related note, has been plagued with foul trouble (even though he's never committed a foul in his life - just ask him) and has not contributed the easy buckets in the paint they need. This is a dangerous team, despite these flaws, because Teague is terrific and they can pound people on the glass when focused. Can they win four straight games against good team/bad matchups though? Eh.


West Virginia, how I love thee. Bob Huggins, for all his shortcomings off the court, is a wonderful coach. He somehow has blended the leftovers from John Beilein's tenure with the athletes he likes to recruit and enjoyed the best of both worlds. WVU should have enough to survive Dayton and I really think they can knock out Kansas in the second round. KU can ride Sherron Collins as far as he can take them, but will have to get some other points from their auxiliary scorers in order to go far. Southern Cal vs Boston College is intriguing in the 7-10 game, as both teams prefer to keep the tempo down a bit and convert quality shots in the paint. USC should be able to switch everything on the post-flex that BC will run, and I think that is enough to make a difference. The Trojans could also prove challenging to Michigan St, as they start five guys between 6-5 and 6-9. I have not been impressed with the Spartans much this year, but still see a Sweet 16 in the works for the Coach to the Izzo.


West Region:


Everyone seems really down on UCONN. The Huskies lost at home to Georgetown in early January (fluke?), twice to Pittsburgh (tough matchup against a great team), and in 6 overtimes to Syracuse (and I stayed out watching it...on a work night). I don't see much to be that worried about really. Not a really deep team, and some guys are a bit inconsistent, but UCONN is still really, really good. I honestly have trouble seeing anyone in this region beating them except possibly Purdue. The Boilermakers are finally healthy (hence their Five to Thrive status), play outstanding defense, and have a number of guys who can hurt you. I am hesitant on that matchup due to Purdue's rebounding deficiencies combined by UCONN's propensity to gobble up boards. This is the kind of game that the Huskies will really miss Jerome Dyson and his outside shooting ability. Kemba Walker, in my opinion, is going to really have to step up and control this team from the point guard spot, which would enable AJ Price to concentrate on scoring the ball. Lord knows Price is dying for an extended tournament run following his knee injury he sustained in last year's first-round upset loss.


The bottom of the West bracket is headed by Memphis. Though the Tigers lost a ton of talent from last year's shoulda-woulda-coulda champions, they have pretty much replaced it all and continued to harass people defensively. Like, really harass. John Cal's boys should make the Sweet 16 with ease, and probably the Elite 8. I am not high on Missouri or Marquette, but for different reason. The Tigers are best when they run and gun and force teams into turnovers, but have issues against slower folks. Marquette just has not been right since James' injury. So who does that leave? Utah State, an efficient, slow, experienced team. Hello Cinderella's castle. If the Aggies can play their way and force Marquette and Mizzou out of their comfort zones, we could have quite a story on our hands.


East Region:


For years, Pittsburgh has been good, but not quite good enough. They defend, they rebound, they wear you down...but if you're a great team, you usually beat them. Under first Ben Howland, then Jamie Dixon, they have danced nearly every year, but not made it past the Sweet 16. This might be the year to change that, thanks in large part to Sam Young. When he blew out his knee last year, I had no clue how good he was, very similar to the season Brandon Roy missed at Washington in 2005. Young is the inside-outside scorer and do-everything guy that the Panthers have been lacking. Blair and Fields are good, but Young makes this team go. That being said, I think Pitt could have a tough opponent in every round. Oklahoma St can do nothing with the Panthers, but Tennessee's ability to stretch them out would cause major problems. Florida St was another Five to Thrive team of mine and I think they can handle Wisconsin and Xavier. FSU plays outstanding defense as a team. Their wings take some chances on the outside for steals because they know that Solomon Alabi is standing behind them to erase mistakes. I loved this team when they played in Blacksburg and still like them now. I'm not sure they can beat Pittsburgh, but a Sweet 16 is not out of the question.


The Dookies are the number two seed in this region, but probably are not the favorite to make the Elite 8. That falls instead to Villanova. Behind an experienced point guard in Scottie Reynolds and two solid front-court mates, Shane Clark and Dante Cunningham, the Wildcats have the pieces in place to go deep into this event. UCLA might pose a problem if they make it to the second round, but the Bruins have not put together consistent offense this year. Duke is almost a sleeper in the region, as I cannot recall having seen anyone pick the Blue Devils to emerge in the Final Four. Their defensive ability is unmatched along the perimeter; the questions are 1) can they get any rebounds if/when they start missing; and 2) can they avoid being torched by another point guard? I just can't see both of these turning up "yes" for four consecutive games.


South Region:

For the sake of speed, we'll largely ignore the Tar Heels in this analysis. LSU vs Butler is a toss-up in my opinion, but I think LSU's athleticism, combined with the youth in the Butler backcourt (start two freshmen guards), will sway this game in favor of the Bayou Bengals. Illinois was one of the worst "good" teams I saw all season and I love Western Kentucky in general, so...Gonzaga is playing its best ball and is the biggest threat in this region to a healthy Carolina squad. They are actually second in defensive field-goal percentage now (Memphis passed them after the C-USA tournament) and have five capable guys on the offensive end.

Down below, Oklahoma is the high seed and not one that I particularly like. Blake and Taylor Griffin are excellent, but I thought the Sooners benefited from a soft schedule early in the Big 12 season. I do not think their guards are ready to handle Clemson or Michigan - either the pressure of the Tigers or the zone of the Wolverines. I am taking Michigan because of Clemson's half-court deficiencies and riding them two rounds I think. Syracuse should be fine, too much is being made of the Orange's 6 OT game as it relates to their legs. They should see the second weekend at least in my opinion, but could see a dangerous Temple team. The Owls are traditionally a squad you never want to see in your bracket because of their matchup zone, but John Chaney is gone and this team rides the scoring of Dionte Christmas as much as their defense.

Big Picture:

There are five teams that I think can win six games: Louisville, UCONN, Pitt, Villanova, & UNC. So yes, I think the Big East is good. Wake Forest, WVU, Purdue, Memphis, Duke, Gonzaga, and Syracuse are all good enough to win four. And yes, I left out Oklahoma and Michigan St intentionally. Who you pick to win depends on one big toe and the subsequent health of its owner. Otherwise, the Louisville/UCONN semi-final would decide things for me.