2009 NBA Draft Preview: Bobcats

Continuing with this week's NBA Draft analysis, we'll take a look at the hometown Bobcats and their draft outlook real fast. But, before you look at the draft, you must first look at what's in place and the needs of the team.

Raymond Felton will receive a qualifying offer and return for at least one year, plus DJ Augustin (last year's first-rounder) remains at point guard. In fact, word is Augustin grew almost four inches this summer - he's now 5-7. A third point guard or a shooting guard who can play some minutes at the one will probably come via a small free agent signing this summer. Thus, point guard is set. The 2-guard spot is a different story, as incumbent starter Raja Bell was rumored to be headed to Golden State earlier this week. Even though that fell through, it still lets us know that the 'Cats are not sold on Bell or anyone else who might return as the shooting guard (Cartier Martin was a late-season addition). Gerald Wallace, the team's best player, returns at the small forward spot. Injury prone, in large part due to his aggressiveness, Wallace needs a capable backup who is a true small forward - not Juwan Howard, Boris Diaw, or Vlad Radmanovic moonlighting as a 3. The power forward position is lined by Diaw and Rad, both of whom are heavy on the offensive capabilities, but a bit low on the toughness/rebounding angle. Okafor and Desagana Diop are in the middle, with Nazi holding down the over-paid-and-never-play spot in the post.

So, the summary: no long-term solution at shooting guard, no real backup at the small forward spot, and the need for some defense and rebounding at the power forward. However, look closer at the roster...now envision what a bonafide NBA contender looks like...now think again about the Bobcats...now spit the barf out of your mouth...rinse...ok. Obviously Charlotte does not have the pieces in place to be successful in terms of competing for a title.

What the Bobcats need is a guy their opponent has to gameplan around defensively. Yes, that means a super-duper star. Okafor scores off dump-and-dunks and rebounds, Diaw scores off deep post isolation, Wallace scores on the break and at the line, and Felton scores when no one else will take a shot and he has to throw one up there. Raja Bell is aging at the shooting guard spot and should not be counted on for 70+ games this year, much less 82 and maybe the playoffs. I sincerely think Tyreke Evans can become a guy who the other team must plan around. In the short-term, he would be another guy who can't shoot (like Felton and Wallace) and his turnovers would drive Larry Brown nuts. Plus, he won't be on the board at #12. Regardless, I don't think the odds are high that Charlotte finds a team-changer at #12. Here is a list of the past fifteen years worth of #12 picks and the team who selected him:

2008: Jason Thompson (Sac)
2007: Thaddeus Young (Phi)
2006: Hilton Armstrong (NO)
2005: Yaroslav Korolev (Lac)
2004: Robert Swift (Sea)
2003: Nick Collison (Sea)
2002: Melvin Ely (Lac)
2001: Vlad Radmonovic (Sea)
2000: Etan Thomas (Dal)
1999: Alek Radojevic (Tor)
1998: Michael Doleac (Orl)
1997: Austin Croshere (Ind)
1996: Vitaly Potapenko (Cle)
1995: Cherokee Parks (Dal)
1994:Khalid Reeves (Mia)

Um, yeah. Not so much, huh? The two most recent guys have shown some promise, but it's early yet on both Thompson & Young. Not a single All-Star appearance on this list, unless you count Cherokee Parks' appearance on the NBA's All-Tattoo team. Oh, Robert Swift made an appearance too? I had no idea he was even still alive. For those of you scoring at home, that's 12,348 tattoos and ZERO All-Stars from the past 15 years worth of #12 picks. Log on to Basketball Reference and keep digging through the annals of drafts past; the #12 pick has not been kind to teams.

So what should the Bobcats do? Make a trade, of course. Either trade up or trade out. If there is a guy earlier in the draft that the team loves, then b-e aggressive and trade up for him. I'm not sold on Stephen Curry, but if they think he's the guy, then go get him. If it's Evans, go get him. Now, what would it take to trade up? Probably the #12 pick and one of the point guards - either a contractually extended Raymond Felton or DJ Augustin. Of course, it depends on how high you're trying to move up and who is targeted. After looking at that option, I don't think the pieces are there, nor the trade partner, to be able to move up and get a great player in this draft.

The other option is to trade the #12 pick and move back or out of the first round all together. Pair the pick with a bad contract (Nazi, Vlad, or Diop, in that order) and either get a good player or just the cap space in return. I personally don't love the idea of just moving back in the first round unless it gets rid of a contract too - there just aren't enough good players to be had. I'd much rather try to get a stud who can be good long-term. This idea is essentially what the team tried to do in 2007 in the Jason Richardson deal. The problem with that deal was two-fold: Richardson was not as good as they hoped, and neither were the parts around him. Now, the parts are a bit better, but finding the right player might be tough. Here's my point for the Bobcats - no more role players. No more above average guys. They need a stud, and they aren't going to find one at #12. Unless...

If the Bobcats keep the #12 pick, they need to take Earl Clark, upon availability. Not Terrence Williams, not Gerald Henderson, not a midget point guard. Why? He has the upside to turn into a great player, and fairly soon. Clark is 6-10 and a combo forward out of Louisville. He has decent handle, good range, rebounds pretty well, and can impact the game on both ends. His shot is a bit streaky and he's too light to play the 4-spot right now, but the major knock on him is supposedly his motivation/intensity. Not so much in a "I'm too cool for school and won't try hard" way, but more like a "I just don't show a ton of emotion" way. I was personally sold on Clark for a while as a decent player, but really warmed up to him after reading this analysis. (If you like the NBA, click that link. Just a fantastic, in-depth piece.)

Clark's skillset lends itself to becoming a face-up 4-man down the road. He'll add strength and some weight as a result of the NBA-level workout regiment, so I think the issue of being a bit too light will fix itself in a year or two. At the 4-spot, Clark immediately becomes quicker than many guys trying to guard him, providing the matchup problems that we discussed yesterday in regards to Tyreke Evans. As his shot improves and bigs have to guard him closer, the driving lanes will open up and you suddenly have a tough matchup. His ceiling is something like a Rashard Lewis, but more physical defending and rebounding. Clark definitely is not in Lewis' class as a shooter right now, but he could evolve into that type of guy. For now, Clark can play behind Wallace at the 3-spot and move over to the 4 occasionally. In three years? Maybe you have a stud.

Hopefully the Bobcats make a good decision with this pick. I'm fine with drafting Clark or trading the pick, especially if it unloads a bad deal or two. Unfortunately the Bobcats have apparently made a promise to Clark's collegiate teammate, Terrence Williams, to draft him at #12 if he's still there. That's awesome, considering Chad Ford said today on his ESPN Podcast with Bill Simmons that Williams carried a Barbie bookbag in college and "reminds him mentally of Ron Artest...minus the attacking fans thing, of course" (fast-forward to the 58-minute mark or so). I'll keep the liquor close by Thursday night in case this scenario unfolds. Goooooo Bobcats.

One more update coming pre-draft, with my mock draft and some bigger picture impact of this draft. Then, we'll hit up the live rundown during the draft. And I can't wait. Ain't I...