2009 NBA Draft: Final Mock & Pre-Draft Thoughts

Less than three hours away from the 2009 NBA Draft as I post this. There is still a lot of flux as to what teams will do, even at the top of the draft. It looks like Griffin and Thabeet will go 1-2 in the draft at this point, and I think Rubio ultimately goes #3 - either to OKC or to the team that trades up with the Thunder. If Sam Presti & Co really want James Harden, then they should trade back with Minnesota to #5 and pick something else up and make the Timberwolves pay a bit more for Rubio. After that, it is a crapshoot, especially as it relates to point guards. At least two guys will end up falling out of the top 10 that did not appear to be available in the middle of the draft as of a few weeks ago, meaning a Charlotte, Detroit, or Chicago should gladly snatch them up. I have an odd feeling that we're going to see a busy night out of Indiana, as they've been too quiet for a team with so many long-term holes. Philly might make some noise too. Just hunches there, nothing factual.

Here is my final mock draft, for historical reference:

1. Blake Griffin (LAC)
2. Thabeet (MEM)
3. Rubio (OKC)
4. Flynn (SAC)
5. Harden (MIN)
6. Curry (MIN)
7. Hill (GS)
8. Evans (NY)
9. Holiday (TOR)
10. Clark (MIL)
11. DeRozan (NJ)
12. T. Williams (CHA)
13. Jennings (IND)
14. J. Johnson (PHO)
15. Derrick Brown (DET)
16. Blair (CHI)
17. Lawson (PHI)
18. Mullins (MIN)
19. Teague (ATL)
20. Daye (UTA)
21. Henderson (NO)
22. Maynor (POR)
23. Casspi (SAC)
24. Hansbrough (DAL)
25. Gibson (OKC)
26. Summers (CHI)
27. Mills (MEM)
28. Budinger (MIN)
29. McClinton (NY)
30. Green (CLE)

And for proof, even though you really can't read it:


The key early on is going to be Golden State at #7. The Warriors have a glut of wing players and almost HAVE to slide Monta Ellis over to the point guard spot to play all their guys (Jackson, Azubuike, Maggette, and Belinelli) at the 2 & 3. That would point towards drafting a post player like Jordan Hill to rotate with Biedrins and the Randolph/Wright lean meat sandwich. The problem? That's no good. I think Golden State would love to deal the #7, a young talent and part of their wing depth for a quality player to make a playoff run this year (see Davis, Baron). If they did this, the draft changes really fast.

The only really odd pick in my mock draft is Derrick Brown, the forward from Xavier, going at #15 to the Pistons. I loved that guy as a young freshman in the NCAA Tournament in 2007 and really think some team is going to get a good player. So yes, that's a personal pick going that high. Danny Green going at #30 might be a bit weird too, but a quality spot-up shooter and versatile defender would help Cleveland a lot.

There will still be some trades this evening, of course, but one of the bigger ones went down around midnight - Shaq heading to Cleveland. I don't mind the one-year rental idea with the Big Diesel, but Cleveland has not solved its two biggest problems: defending the pick-and-roll and building a core around LeBron so he'll stay around long-term. They must find a way to not only re-sign Varejao, but also a versatile big man who can defend and move, but a wing player to take some pressure off LeBron. Trading Big Z and one of their 6-2 shooting guards (West, Gibson, Mo "All-Star Point Guard" Williams) would make that possible - but who wants that bag of potato chips?

And in breaking news, literally as I type this: Vince Carter has been sent to Orlando for Courtney Lee, Tony Battie's contract, and Skip to my Lou (Raefer Alston). More analysis as this deal becomes official, but my initial reaction was something to the effect of "hoooooly, I...I mean...ugh, OMG!!!"...Which roughly translates into "what a deal for Orlando - an energized Vince Carter returning to his home state of Florida and playing with talent for the first time since Jason Kidd & RJ - wow!"

Finally, a big picture point before we end this for the evening: beginning with this week's draft, this off-season is going to shape the next 5-7 years of the league. Though the draft itself is weak on talent, it is NOT weak on drama. This season, it also sets the table for a summer of moves that will give us a good indication of which teams are buying and selling. There are so many teams battling economic problems right now, many of which have been paying luxury taxes in the few seasons. These teams are looking to cut costs in any way possible, which means so guys are going to be readily available for trades. In fact, you're likely to see a few of the "3 quarters for a $1" trades this off-season as a team makes a desperate move. The residual effects are that the teams who acquire players being pawned off are setting themselves up to be very, very good for a number of years. Some team are instead setting themselves up to lure a marquee free agent or two next summer by putting talent in place to have around that player. You have others, like the Knicks, trying to clear as much cap room as possible to make a splash next summer with a guy or two from what could be the most star-studded free agent crop in NBA history.

Take the two most-recent blockbuster deals as examples. Cleveland had to upgrade its roster to try and keep LeBron after next season, so they wanted to make a deal or two for some "great" players (Shaq, Vince Carter, etc). And Phoenix, a major spender in the past years with their luxury tax issues, has made everyone available to the highest bidder (i.e. most saved salary) because owner Robert Sarver has apparently run out of money. Put a team like Cleveland with a team like Phoenix and that's how you ended up with Shaq next to LeBron in 2009. I would have preferred an extended Amar'e and a sign-and-trade Matt Barnes going to Cleveland for Ben Wallace, Sasha Pavlovic, JJ Hickson, and Delonte West, but the Cavs took a less-risky approach.

In the case of Orlando, they needed a good shooting guard to drive the ball and take pressure off Howard in the post. New Jersey has been shopping Carter for months in order to clear a ton of cap room for next summer. Done & Done. The Magic are potentially the favorite for at least the Eastern Conference title in 2009-2010 & the Brooklyn Nets now have plenty of money to woe co-owner Jay-Z's boy LeBron in the infamous summer of 2010.

Enjoy tonight's festivities. I'll be cranking on the live rundown, some CFA, potentially some beverages, and a lot of yelling I'm afraid. The 2009 NBA Draft: Who's Real?