Four teams remain with title aspirations and I'll be there to see them settle it this weekend. Tickets are moving pretty easy this year, so it's possible to go (thank you NCAA folks for choosing Detroit to host this wonderful event. Snow is in the forecast for Monday, so I've got to pack a toboggan and gloves).
UCONN over Michigan St. I think the Huskies are really, really good. They can run with you, but are also perfectly comfortable in the halfcourt. They have the athletes and strength to rebound with the Spartans, plus they can really get out and defend them as well. Louisville's 2-3 zone was a bit soft for my taste last Sunday and did not provide near enough pressure on Michigan State's shooters. Though the Spartans are not a great shooting team, they will readily knock down open shots like the Cardinals gave them. I do not forsee UCONN providing near as many quality looks at the basket. Kemba Walker is a key for the Huskies; if he plays like he did against Missouri, this team will cut down the nets. He's just a freshman, but he will be a high NBA pick one day soon. I am afraid we have not seen his best yet, and what we have seen has been really good. Michigan State certainly has the home-court advantage going for them, but in the end, I just do not think that will be enough. Score: UCONN 70 Michigan St 58.
Carolina over Villanova. The Wildcats remind me a lot of Arizona's 1997 title team (*shudders*): good guards who spread you out, a capable wing player, two solid post guys, and a short bench. Scottie Reynolds has the ability to go for 30 any night and Dante Cunningham can bang with anybody despite being a bit undersized. Contrary to what you might assume, Villanova outrebounds their opponents by four per game, and they do this by being quicker to the ball. It will be essential that the Tar Heels' big men get a body on every Wildcat when heading to the glass. Villanova also has some "destiny" feel to them, plus the revenge factor stemming from 2005 (if I hear one more thing about the "controversy" from that game, I'm going to puke). However, North Carolina is a better team. Lawson is the best point guard in the nation, Hansbrough one of the best big men. Ellington and Green might be the best 2/3 combo and Deon Thompson is no slouch. Add in some good depth and an NBA Lottery big man or two coming off the bench and you have the country's best team. That does not mean anything in the Final Four unless this group plays as a unit and plays effeciently. Defense like last weekend and attacking the boards with tenacity will be required to advance to Monday night. Ultimately, I think Ty Lawson proves yet again to be the difference. Score: Carolina 78 Villanova 74.
Holler at me if you'll be in Detroit.
Rah rah...
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