NCAA Tournament Breakdown

Now that we’ve all had a couple of days to digest the NCAA Tournament bracket, allow me to analyze a bit. We’ll discuss the selection committee’s job briefly, and look at the overall bracket itself. Then, an in-depth analysis of each region, complete with possible upsets. Next, my picks (as if anyone would ever use them). Finally, a look at the road ahead for the Tar Heels.

The Selections & Seeding

The NCAA Selection Committee, as usual, had a tough job this season in selecting the 34 at-large bids to the tournament. It was a little different than most years, as many teams attempted to play their way off the proverbial bubble. Seth Greenberg was clearly upset that my resident home team, Virginia Tech, did not make the tournament. Herb Sendek also had a bone to pick out at Arizona St. However, I personally was not floored by any omissions by the committee. If VT or ASU had made the tournament, I would not have been surprised. But, I’m equally as un-stunned that both are playing in the NIT.

My bracket that I put together here on The Blue Team notched 63/65 teams correct. I did miss VT (what a homer) and Illinois St, both teams that I was not sold on. The more I thought about the bracket following the ACC Tournament Final on Sunday, the more I felt like these teams would be left out. However, I was beginning the feel like Arizona St would get in, not Oregon. The Ducks were my only real complaint with this bracket. Not so much that they received a bid, as Ernie Kent’s squad is pretty good and have some quality wins, but more so that they are a nine seed. A nine seems significantly too high, in my opinion, for this team. With that being said, I have no serious gripes with anyone who was included or left out of this dance recital.

There were some surprises on the seeding front. Washington St (4), Vanderbilt (4), Oklahoma (6), Miami (7), and Oregon (9) all were a bit too high for my taste. On the contrary, Butler (7), BYU (8), Indiana (8), and Kansas St (11) might have each been a line too low. Indiana was especially surprising. Though the Hoosiers have struggled a bit since the Kelvin Sampson debacle, they have played some Final Four-caliber basketball this year as well. But, the Hoosiers seeding is consistent with what the Big Ten received. I personally felt like Duke would end up a 3-seed, with Big Ten champion Wisconsin a 2-seed, but the committee disagreed.

All in all, I have to commend the job the selection committee did this season. The right teams are probably in the tournament and everyone left out has significant flaws (yes, even the beloved Hokies). In general, I think the bracket is fairly well balanced from region to region. The Midwest Region looks the toughest to me, as all of the top six seeds could make a run to San Antonio. The Tar Heels’ East Region is not much easier, if any. The South would be next, then the UCLA Invitational known as the West Region. If you’re a fan of the Bruins, go ahead and find a hotel room along the Riverwalk. The only obstacle I really see for UCLA is its second round matchup with either BYU or Texas A&M. The Cougars are a good team for sure and could give UCLA a tough game. In fact, I’d say that the four 8-seeds are all strong teams who have played some tough opponents well throughout the year. It would not surprise me at all to see any one of them pull off an upset in the second round, knocking out a number one seed in the process (UNLV anyone?).

Overall Bracket Thoughts

I felt coming into March that the top seven teams (UNC, UCLA, Memphis, Kansas, Texas, Tennessee, and Georgetown) were head and shoulders better than the rest of the field. However, after seeing the brackets lined up, I see some potential potholes for each squad, even before they have to play one another. In the East, Indiana is clearly a problem for Carolina and Butler or Louisville could give Tennessee all they can handle. In the Midwest, Kansas got no favors with UNLV and Clemson; Georgetown would be challenged by Southern Cal. In the South, Memphis is going to need to survive against physical teams like Mississippi St and Pittsburgh while Rick Barnes’ Texas squad could face former assistant Frank Haith (head coach at Miami) and the twin towers, Brook and Brock Lopez, of Stanford. And, out West, UCLA has to contend with…um…with…oh wait, UCLA has no one to worry about. We already covered that. So to take up space, let’s rename the West Region. Choose one:

a) Paper Doll Lounge Region – cause that’s where the Bruins will be for two weeks after each win
b) Cream Puff Region – playing cream puff opponents, duh
c) No Respek Necessary Region – don’t need to respek the opponents, Ali G style, since Lorenzo Mata could be Ali G’s cousin.
d) The-Refs-Will-Make-Sure-We-Win Region – if you watch college basketball and don’t know what I’m talking about, then you don’t watch enough college basketball. Make sense?

(And yes, for the record, I’m trying to find every way possible to jinx UCLA into losing before the Boys in Baby Blue…nevermind.)

In all seriousness, the Final Four will have three of the top seven teams in my opinion. And UCLA will be one of them.


Regional Breakdown

East Region:

Carolina might be the number one overall seed, but has a difficult road beginning in round two, should they beat Mount St. Mary’s. Indiana had the look of a Final Four team a couple of months ago, so much so that I was considering the 18-1 odds for winning the national title during our Vegas trip in mid-January. Clearly the Hoosiers have struggled recently, but have the talent to take out the Heels. Notre Dame and Washington St should be survive the first round, then bore us to tears in the second round. Both of these squads will be a Sweet 16 battle. The bottom half of the East brings the first real upset possibility to me, in St. Joseph’s vs Oklahoma. With the relative inexperience of OU both on the floor and in its head coach, I like the St. Joe’s Hawk to flap his wings for two rounds (for those that don’t know, the St. Joe’s mascot flaps his wings from the opening tip to the final buzzer of every game, non-stop. If that bird ever quits flapping, then the apocalypse is upon us). Butler vs South Alabama is a game of contrasting styles, as the Bulldogs are methodical and organized while USA is open-court, pressing and pushing tempo. I like the Bulldogs and think they could give Tennessee a run in the second round. If we get a Tennessee vs Louisville Sweet 16 matchup, it’ll be a good one. Both teams can shoot the 3 and push the tempo. And, unfortunately, either could advance to the Final Four.


Midwest Region:

This region is the toughest and most wide-open. UNLV made the Sweet 16 last year and has a player who can take over a game in Wink Adams; look out Jayhawks. Clemson vs Villanova pits two polar-opposite teams from major conferences. Clemson is getting a lot of hype right now, but be wary of the Wildcats. With the 3-guard lineup, they should have enough ball handlers against Clemson’s press, which could lead to easy buckets and an upset. The USC/K-State winner can, and should, beat Wisconsin. Both teams have far more talent and athleticism. Davidson’s hype around North Carolina has gotten old. I will be pulling for the Wildcats for sure, even against everyone’s favorite mid-major, Gonzaga. But, remember that Davidson has only played good teams close this year, not beaten any of them. I see a repeat personally. Georgetown should see the Sweet 16, but will have a tough go-around with USC if the Trojans make it that far. I think Kansas is the best team, but, much like the Tar Heels, they will have to earn their berth in San Antonio.

South Region:

No one loves Memphis. They can’t shoot free throws, they’re undisciplined, haven’t played enough close games, blah blah blah. They’ve beaten Oklahoma, UCONN, USC, Cincinnati, Georgetown, Arizona, Gonzaga, Houston (2), UAB (2). Their only loss was to number two Tennessee, in a game in which the Tigers had a shot to win. Of the non-conference games, only their win over Southern Cal was particularly close (by 4 in OT), which means they haven’t played close games against any of those quality opponents. Which means they blew out quality teams. Blew them out. Just keep that in mind. Sure, the Tigers could go out early, as many “experts” have predicted. But, that doesn’t take away from the fact that Memphis is still really good. In the bottom half of this region, Stanford will have a tough road. The Cardinal are huge up front, but their guards are not quick. Marquette, Texas, and Memphis all have quick guards. Translation: don’t bet your cards on the Cardinal.

West Region:

Chris’ Sports Blog mentioned that the South Region had a lot of teams that start with “M”. The West Region has a lot of teams that end in “Sucks.” As in Duke Sucks, Xavier Sucks, UCONN Sucks, Drake Sucks, Purdue Really Sucks, etc. Have I gotten across my point that I don’t think too highly of many of the teams in the UCLA Invitational West Region.


On the upset front, I like St. Joseph’s, St. Mary’s, Western Kentucky, and Baylor enough to pick them. I’m too chicken to pick Siena, Villanova, Temple, San Diego, or Belmont (just kidding on that last one).

Lower seeds that could see the Sweet 16: St. Joseph’s, Butler, Villanova, Kansas St, St. Mary’s, & Western Kentucky.

First One-Seed to lose: All of them in the Final Four. What a joke. It was unintentional.

Most dangerous seed 5 or lower: USC

Most dangerous seed 9 or lower: Villanova & Western Kentucky (both are 12 seeds)

Contenders in each region (teams that have a legitimate chance at the Final Four):
East – Carolina, Tennessee, Louisville
Midwest – Kansas, Clemson, USC, Georgetown
South – Memphis, Pittsburgh, Texas
West – UCLA, Duke


The Picks

East:
1st Round – Carolina, Indiana, Notre Dame, Washington St, St. Joseph’s, Louisville, Butler, Tennessee
2nd Round – Carolina, Washington St, Louisville, Tennessee
Sweet 16 – Carolina, Louisville
Elite 8 – Carolina

Midwest:
1st Round – Kansas, UNLV, Clemson, Vanderbilt, USC, Wisconsin, Gonzaga, Georgetown
2nd Round – Kansas, Vanderbilt, USC, Georgetown
Sweet 16 – Kansas, Georgetown
Elite 8 – Kansas

South:
1st Round – Memphis, Oregon, Michigan St, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Stanford, St. Mary’s, Texas
2nd Round – Memphis, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Texas
Sweet 16 – Memphis, Texas
Elite 8 – Memphis

West:
1st Round – UCLA, BYU, Western Kentucky, UCONN, Baylor, Xavier, West Virginia, Duke
2nd Round – UCLA, UCONN, Xavier, Duke
Sweet 16 – UCLA, Duke
Elite 8 – UCLA

Final Four:
Kansas over Carolina & UCLA over Memphis

UCLA defeats Kansas 81-77 to win the National Championship


The Blue Team

In order for Carolina to win the national title, a few things are key.

1) Ty Lawson. I cannot emphasize enough how important he is right now. Lawson can get easy buckets when they are needed, beat a press by himself, put pressure on the ball and prevent the opponent from getting into its offense, set up teammates for easy buckets, and keep the turnover numbers down. Furthermore, he is a pretty good shooter, so a lineup that includes Lawson, Ellington, and Green can really hit from downtown. He has to be at or near 100%, not just health-wise but on the court.

2) Hansbrough must continue to emulate Sean May circa 2005. If Tyler can foul guys out, the Heels have a big advantage. That being said…

3) The Tar Heels must not expect to get any calls. This drives many of the ACC fans nuts, as Hansbrough et al draw a lot of contact and, subsequently, a lot of whistles. That doesn’t fly in March. My Dad can sit down and name five games off the top of his head that Carolina didn’t get calls it normally receives in the regular season. This was the case for the ACC Tournament this season, as it probably should be. Let the players decide the outcome, which is how things usually work in the NCAA Tournament. Therefore, Carolina must adjust and play like men. Especially…

4) Deon Thompson. He has been shaky the last six weeks (to put it nicely) in large part due to injuries. Now is the time to get as healthy as possible and play strong. You too Alex Stepheson.

5) Survive. You know the game. Villanova in ’05, Cincinnati in ’93, James Madison in ’82. Carolina plays a sub-par game, loses a key player to fouls, can’t stop at least one player on the other team, and still finds a way to win. Nearly every team does it to win a national title.

6) Play your best on the big stage. Don’t get to the Final Four and crap out (see 1997 & 1998). Four great teams will be there, so bring the A+ game.

I’m looking forward to this tournament. Quietly optimistic, even a bit hopeful. I’ll be heading to Raleigh for the 1st & 2nd rounds, so I don’t see a blog coming until Monday. Go Heels and Happy March Madness.


One Shining Moment you reached for the sky…