Christmas in March Part I

Welcome to Christmas in March. Selection Sunday is finally here. Hours before the brackets are released, here are the pressing questions:

Who are the number one seeds? Easy answer.
Who are the two-seeds? Tough question, as there are five great candidates.
How high do Clemson and Pittsburgh go? Great conference tournament runs make this a tough one.
Who gets in the Big Dance? Roughly four spots TBD. For now. Because…
How many more bids get stolen? Both Illinois and Georgia play for automatic bids that would potentially eliminate two more bids after Gonzaga, St. Mary’s, and South Alabama already took three bids.


Let’s briefly discuss all of these questions. First, the one-seeds. UNC, UCLA, Memphis, and the Kansas/Texas winner. Easy enough and in that order. UNC will play in Raleigh for the first round site, which is a Friday/Sunday setup. Therefore, the Tar Heels are in line for the number one overall seed as well as the winner of the play-in game.

The two-seeds will come from the following five teams: Duke, Georgetown, Kansas/Texas loser, Wisconsin, and Tennessee. I honestly have no idea who will be bumped down to a three-seed. My guess right now is either Georgetown or Duke. If Wisconsin loses to Illinois, they might drop a seed line to become a three-seed, and I personally think they are the weakest of these five teams. However, the Badgers should beat Illinois and would have to be a two-seed as the regular season and tournament champions of the Big Ten. Truthfully, it looks like Duke to me, as the Blue Devils have lost two of three here late in the season.

On a Carolina note, there are a number of storylines to follow here. As the number one seed in the East Region, the Tar Heels could have either Tennessee or Georgetown as their two. However, should Texas lose to Kansas on Sunday, the Longhorns will be tough to place as a two-seed. They couldn’t be the two-seed in Kansas’ region (likely the Midwest), nor would it be fair to Memphis if the Longhorns were the two-seed in the South Region (to be played in Houston, TX). This leaves only the West (UCLA as the one-seed) and East (UNC as the one-seed). Not that it matters a lot, but Texas and UCLA already played this year. Therefore, there’s a chance the Longhorns could end up in the East Region. Depending on how things fall on the committee’s S-curve (the overall list of all 65 teams in order of strength in comparison to the regional setup), Georgetown could easily become the lowest of the two-seeds (eighth overall) and end up in the East Region with the Tar Heels once again. The worst case scenario is a region that breaks down with UNC as the one-seed, Tennessee as the two-seed, and Georgetown as the three-seed. Not unlikely at this point.

Moving down the seeding list, it’s safe to say that one of the above-mentioned five teams battling for a two-seed will become a three-seed. Stanford as well. However, I’m at a loss for who becomes the other two three-seeds. I’m betting on at least one Big East team, likely Louisville. But what about Pittsburgh? With Lavance Fields in the lineup at full-strength, Pitt is 18-1. The Panthers also just won four games in four days to capture the Big East tournament title. It’s at least possible that Pitt climbs this high based on those two facts. For the record, Xavier looks more likely to be the fourth of the three-seeds to me.

Clemson is also climbing high. A win in the ACC Tournament final over the number one ranked Tar Heels would propel the Tigers to a 4-seed in my opinion. Even with a loss, Clemson is looking like at least a 6, maybe even a 5.

In discussing the bubble, we must first mention the last question I posed earlier: how many more bids are stolen on Sunday? Both Georgia and Illinois have a chance to earn an automatic bid, which were certainly not accounted for prior to this week. Fans of any team on the so-called bubble will be cheering loudly for Wisconsin and Arkansas, two teams who will earn bids regardless of Sunday’s results, to win and keep those bubble spots open.

Now, for the bubble itself. Here’s the breakdown as of right now:

UMBC
Temple
UNC
Belmont
Pittsburgh
Texas
Portland St
Winthrop
Wisconsin
Cal St Northridge
George Mason
Memphis
Butler
Cornell
Siena
Kent St
Coppin St
Drake
UNLV
Mt Saint Mary's
Austin Peay
UCLA
American
Arkansas
Davidson
NW State
Miss Valley St
Oral Roberts
Western Ky
San Diego
Boise St
Duke

Clemson
Xavier
Marquette
Georgetown
UCONN
Lousiville
West Virginia
Notre Dame
Michigan St
Indiana
Purdue
Kansas
Oklahoma
Baylor
Kansas St
Texas A&M
Stanford
Washington St
USC
Tennessee
Vanderbilt
Mississippi St
BYU
Gonzaga
St Mary's
Miami
Arizona
Kentucky
South Alabama
St. Joseph's
Illinois St
Virginia Tech
Villanova

The 31 bold-faced teams are the conference tournament champions/highest remaining seeds playing for the conference tournament championship. Therefore, these are currently classified as automatic bid teams. The remaining 34 teams, numbers 32-65, are at-large spots. They are in no order until you get to number 58 Miami. 58-65 are the spots still somewhat up for grabs. Beginning with St. Joseph’s at number 62 is the real bubble to me, as I feel that 58-61 are pretty safe right now. That would make St. Joe’s, Illinois St., Virginia Tech, and Villanova my last four in as of Saturday night.

As for who is left out, here’s the list:

ASU
Oregon
UMASS
New Mexico
Ohio St
VCU
Florida


Arizona St was tough for sure, as is Ohio St. Both are so-so major conference teams with some strong wins. However, I think Villanova has a stronger resume than both and Virginia Tech is playing better than both (Hokie bias anyone?). UMASS would make four Atlantic 10 teams in the dance, which is ridiculous, but the committee is not supposed to (and should not) consider such things. New Mexico hurt itself by losing early in the MWC tournament, so that made this omission a little easier.

Quickly on the Hokies, my employer and most-watched team. This is a young squad that has improved leaps and bounds the last month. Since being throttled as Carolina by 39 points, the Hokies have played extremely well. However, their best win is still over Miami. The numbers are ok, the quality wins are not there. But, if the committee is considering how well teams are playing right now and the potential for tournament success, then VT should get in. I promise there are 5 & 6 seeds sitting around hoping they don’t draw Virginia Tech in the first round.

Keep in mind that these bubble spots are assuming that Georgia and Illinois both lose on Sunday. Let’s hope that’s the case for the Hokies and Wildcats, as they would both potentially lose spots in the biggest dance of them all.

I hope to get in another update quickly on Sunday prior to the brackets, but don’t bet on it. Heck, I hope to even have an updated bracket done before the selections are made public. I’ll post my (honest) predicted bracket and the actual bracket either late Sunday night or early Monday morning to be checked for accuracy. Until then, Merry March Madness everyone.