NCAA Tournament Breakdown

Now that we’ve all had a couple of days to digest the NCAA Tournament bracket, allow me to analyze a bit. We’ll discuss the selection committee’s job briefly, and look at the overall bracket itself. Then, an in-depth analysis of each region, complete with possible upsets. Next, my picks (as if anyone would ever use them). Finally, a look at the road ahead for the Tar Heels.

The Selections & Seeding

The NCAA Selection Committee, as usual, had a tough job this season in selecting the 34 at-large bids to the tournament. It was a little different than most years, as many teams attempted to play their way off the proverbial bubble. Seth Greenberg was clearly upset that my resident home team, Virginia Tech, did not make the tournament. Herb Sendek also had a bone to pick out at Arizona St. However, I personally was not floored by any omissions by the committee. If VT or ASU had made the tournament, I would not have been surprised. But, I’m equally as un-stunned that both are playing in the NIT.

My bracket that I put together here on The Blue Team notched 63/65 teams correct. I did miss VT (what a homer) and Illinois St, both teams that I was not sold on. The more I thought about the bracket following the ACC Tournament Final on Sunday, the more I felt like these teams would be left out. However, I was beginning the feel like Arizona St would get in, not Oregon. The Ducks were my only real complaint with this bracket. Not so much that they received a bid, as Ernie Kent’s squad is pretty good and have some quality wins, but more so that they are a nine seed. A nine seems significantly too high, in my opinion, for this team. With that being said, I have no serious gripes with anyone who was included or left out of this dance recital.

There were some surprises on the seeding front. Washington St (4), Vanderbilt (4), Oklahoma (6), Miami (7), and Oregon (9) all were a bit too high for my taste. On the contrary, Butler (7), BYU (8), Indiana (8), and Kansas St (11) might have each been a line too low. Indiana was especially surprising. Though the Hoosiers have struggled a bit since the Kelvin Sampson debacle, they have played some Final Four-caliber basketball this year as well. But, the Hoosiers seeding is consistent with what the Big Ten received. I personally felt like Duke would end up a 3-seed, with Big Ten champion Wisconsin a 2-seed, but the committee disagreed.

All in all, I have to commend the job the selection committee did this season. The right teams are probably in the tournament and everyone left out has significant flaws (yes, even the beloved Hokies). In general, I think the bracket is fairly well balanced from region to region. The Midwest Region looks the toughest to me, as all of the top six seeds could make a run to San Antonio. The Tar Heels’ East Region is not much easier, if any. The South would be next, then the UCLA Invitational known as the West Region. If you’re a fan of the Bruins, go ahead and find a hotel room along the Riverwalk. The only obstacle I really see for UCLA is its second round matchup with either BYU or Texas A&M. The Cougars are a good team for sure and could give UCLA a tough game. In fact, I’d say that the four 8-seeds are all strong teams who have played some tough opponents well throughout the year. It would not surprise me at all to see any one of them pull off an upset in the second round, knocking out a number one seed in the process (UNLV anyone?).

Overall Bracket Thoughts

I felt coming into March that the top seven teams (UNC, UCLA, Memphis, Kansas, Texas, Tennessee, and Georgetown) were head and shoulders better than the rest of the field. However, after seeing the brackets lined up, I see some potential potholes for each squad, even before they have to play one another. In the East, Indiana is clearly a problem for Carolina and Butler or Louisville could give Tennessee all they can handle. In the Midwest, Kansas got no favors with UNLV and Clemson; Georgetown would be challenged by Southern Cal. In the South, Memphis is going to need to survive against physical teams like Mississippi St and Pittsburgh while Rick Barnes’ Texas squad could face former assistant Frank Haith (head coach at Miami) and the twin towers, Brook and Brock Lopez, of Stanford. And, out West, UCLA has to contend with…um…with…oh wait, UCLA has no one to worry about. We already covered that. So to take up space, let’s rename the West Region. Choose one:

a) Paper Doll Lounge Region – cause that’s where the Bruins will be for two weeks after each win
b) Cream Puff Region – playing cream puff opponents, duh
c) No Respek Necessary Region – don’t need to respek the opponents, Ali G style, since Lorenzo Mata could be Ali G’s cousin.
d) The-Refs-Will-Make-Sure-We-Win Region – if you watch college basketball and don’t know what I’m talking about, then you don’t watch enough college basketball. Make sense?

(And yes, for the record, I’m trying to find every way possible to jinx UCLA into losing before the Boys in Baby Blue…nevermind.)

In all seriousness, the Final Four will have three of the top seven teams in my opinion. And UCLA will be one of them.


Regional Breakdown

East Region:

Carolina might be the number one overall seed, but has a difficult road beginning in round two, should they beat Mount St. Mary’s. Indiana had the look of a Final Four team a couple of months ago, so much so that I was considering the 18-1 odds for winning the national title during our Vegas trip in mid-January. Clearly the Hoosiers have struggled recently, but have the talent to take out the Heels. Notre Dame and Washington St should be survive the first round, then bore us to tears in the second round. Both of these squads will be a Sweet 16 battle. The bottom half of the East brings the first real upset possibility to me, in St. Joseph’s vs Oklahoma. With the relative inexperience of OU both on the floor and in its head coach, I like the St. Joe’s Hawk to flap his wings for two rounds (for those that don’t know, the St. Joe’s mascot flaps his wings from the opening tip to the final buzzer of every game, non-stop. If that bird ever quits flapping, then the apocalypse is upon us). Butler vs South Alabama is a game of contrasting styles, as the Bulldogs are methodical and organized while USA is open-court, pressing and pushing tempo. I like the Bulldogs and think they could give Tennessee a run in the second round. If we get a Tennessee vs Louisville Sweet 16 matchup, it’ll be a good one. Both teams can shoot the 3 and push the tempo. And, unfortunately, either could advance to the Final Four.


Midwest Region:

This region is the toughest and most wide-open. UNLV made the Sweet 16 last year and has a player who can take over a game in Wink Adams; look out Jayhawks. Clemson vs Villanova pits two polar-opposite teams from major conferences. Clemson is getting a lot of hype right now, but be wary of the Wildcats. With the 3-guard lineup, they should have enough ball handlers against Clemson’s press, which could lead to easy buckets and an upset. The USC/K-State winner can, and should, beat Wisconsin. Both teams have far more talent and athleticism. Davidson’s hype around North Carolina has gotten old. I will be pulling for the Wildcats for sure, even against everyone’s favorite mid-major, Gonzaga. But, remember that Davidson has only played good teams close this year, not beaten any of them. I see a repeat personally. Georgetown should see the Sweet 16, but will have a tough go-around with USC if the Trojans make it that far. I think Kansas is the best team, but, much like the Tar Heels, they will have to earn their berth in San Antonio.

South Region:

No one loves Memphis. They can’t shoot free throws, they’re undisciplined, haven’t played enough close games, blah blah blah. They’ve beaten Oklahoma, UCONN, USC, Cincinnati, Georgetown, Arizona, Gonzaga, Houston (2), UAB (2). Their only loss was to number two Tennessee, in a game in which the Tigers had a shot to win. Of the non-conference games, only their win over Southern Cal was particularly close (by 4 in OT), which means they haven’t played close games against any of those quality opponents. Which means they blew out quality teams. Blew them out. Just keep that in mind. Sure, the Tigers could go out early, as many “experts” have predicted. But, that doesn’t take away from the fact that Memphis is still really good. In the bottom half of this region, Stanford will have a tough road. The Cardinal are huge up front, but their guards are not quick. Marquette, Texas, and Memphis all have quick guards. Translation: don’t bet your cards on the Cardinal.

West Region:

Chris’ Sports Blog mentioned that the South Region had a lot of teams that start with “M”. The West Region has a lot of teams that end in “Sucks.” As in Duke Sucks, Xavier Sucks, UCONN Sucks, Drake Sucks, Purdue Really Sucks, etc. Have I gotten across my point that I don’t think too highly of many of the teams in the UCLA Invitational West Region.


On the upset front, I like St. Joseph’s, St. Mary’s, Western Kentucky, and Baylor enough to pick them. I’m too chicken to pick Siena, Villanova, Temple, San Diego, or Belmont (just kidding on that last one).

Lower seeds that could see the Sweet 16: St. Joseph’s, Butler, Villanova, Kansas St, St. Mary’s, & Western Kentucky.

First One-Seed to lose: All of them in the Final Four. What a joke. It was unintentional.

Most dangerous seed 5 or lower: USC

Most dangerous seed 9 or lower: Villanova & Western Kentucky (both are 12 seeds)

Contenders in each region (teams that have a legitimate chance at the Final Four):
East – Carolina, Tennessee, Louisville
Midwest – Kansas, Clemson, USC, Georgetown
South – Memphis, Pittsburgh, Texas
West – UCLA, Duke


The Picks

East:
1st Round – Carolina, Indiana, Notre Dame, Washington St, St. Joseph’s, Louisville, Butler, Tennessee
2nd Round – Carolina, Washington St, Louisville, Tennessee
Sweet 16 – Carolina, Louisville
Elite 8 – Carolina

Midwest:
1st Round – Kansas, UNLV, Clemson, Vanderbilt, USC, Wisconsin, Gonzaga, Georgetown
2nd Round – Kansas, Vanderbilt, USC, Georgetown
Sweet 16 – Kansas, Georgetown
Elite 8 – Kansas

South:
1st Round – Memphis, Oregon, Michigan St, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Stanford, St. Mary’s, Texas
2nd Round – Memphis, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Texas
Sweet 16 – Memphis, Texas
Elite 8 – Memphis

West:
1st Round – UCLA, BYU, Western Kentucky, UCONN, Baylor, Xavier, West Virginia, Duke
2nd Round – UCLA, UCONN, Xavier, Duke
Sweet 16 – UCLA, Duke
Elite 8 – UCLA

Final Four:
Kansas over Carolina & UCLA over Memphis

UCLA defeats Kansas 81-77 to win the National Championship


The Blue Team

In order for Carolina to win the national title, a few things are key.

1) Ty Lawson. I cannot emphasize enough how important he is right now. Lawson can get easy buckets when they are needed, beat a press by himself, put pressure on the ball and prevent the opponent from getting into its offense, set up teammates for easy buckets, and keep the turnover numbers down. Furthermore, he is a pretty good shooter, so a lineup that includes Lawson, Ellington, and Green can really hit from downtown. He has to be at or near 100%, not just health-wise but on the court.

2) Hansbrough must continue to emulate Sean May circa 2005. If Tyler can foul guys out, the Heels have a big advantage. That being said…

3) The Tar Heels must not expect to get any calls. This drives many of the ACC fans nuts, as Hansbrough et al draw a lot of contact and, subsequently, a lot of whistles. That doesn’t fly in March. My Dad can sit down and name five games off the top of his head that Carolina didn’t get calls it normally receives in the regular season. This was the case for the ACC Tournament this season, as it probably should be. Let the players decide the outcome, which is how things usually work in the NCAA Tournament. Therefore, Carolina must adjust and play like men. Especially…

4) Deon Thompson. He has been shaky the last six weeks (to put it nicely) in large part due to injuries. Now is the time to get as healthy as possible and play strong. You too Alex Stepheson.

5) Survive. You know the game. Villanova in ’05, Cincinnati in ’93, James Madison in ’82. Carolina plays a sub-par game, loses a key player to fouls, can’t stop at least one player on the other team, and still finds a way to win. Nearly every team does it to win a national title.

6) Play your best on the big stage. Don’t get to the Final Four and crap out (see 1997 & 1998). Four great teams will be there, so bring the A+ game.

I’m looking forward to this tournament. Quietly optimistic, even a bit hopeful. I’ll be heading to Raleigh for the 1st & 2nd rounds, so I don’t see a blog coming until Monday. Go Heels and Happy March Madness.


One Shining Moment you reached for the sky…

Christmas in March Part Ib

A little bit more bubble analysis on this Selection Sunday morning. After looking around at other brackets, it seems that Oregon and Ohio St are the two teams I've left out that others are including. I really don't have a problem with Oregon at all, but I'm not sure how their resume is much different than Arizona St. Ohio St is a team I've seen fairly often this season, but have not been impressed with in the least. Illinois St to me seems to be hotly debated as well. In the end, it's likely that at least one of the teams I've left out (Oregon, Ohio St, UMASS, Arizona St) will be in and rob me of the perfectly-projected bracket yet again. For the record, if Georgia or Illinois win, Villanova and Illinois St are the teams to go out, in that order. I'm keeping the Hokies in, I don't want to lose my job.

Christmas in March Part I

Welcome to Christmas in March. Selection Sunday is finally here. Hours before the brackets are released, here are the pressing questions:

Who are the number one seeds? Easy answer.
Who are the two-seeds? Tough question, as there are five great candidates.
How high do Clemson and Pittsburgh go? Great conference tournament runs make this a tough one.
Who gets in the Big Dance? Roughly four spots TBD. For now. Because…
How many more bids get stolen? Both Illinois and Georgia play for automatic bids that would potentially eliminate two more bids after Gonzaga, St. Mary’s, and South Alabama already took three bids.


Let’s briefly discuss all of these questions. First, the one-seeds. UNC, UCLA, Memphis, and the Kansas/Texas winner. Easy enough and in that order. UNC will play in Raleigh for the first round site, which is a Friday/Sunday setup. Therefore, the Tar Heels are in line for the number one overall seed as well as the winner of the play-in game.

The two-seeds will come from the following five teams: Duke, Georgetown, Kansas/Texas loser, Wisconsin, and Tennessee. I honestly have no idea who will be bumped down to a three-seed. My guess right now is either Georgetown or Duke. If Wisconsin loses to Illinois, they might drop a seed line to become a three-seed, and I personally think they are the weakest of these five teams. However, the Badgers should beat Illinois and would have to be a two-seed as the regular season and tournament champions of the Big Ten. Truthfully, it looks like Duke to me, as the Blue Devils have lost two of three here late in the season.

On a Carolina note, there are a number of storylines to follow here. As the number one seed in the East Region, the Tar Heels could have either Tennessee or Georgetown as their two. However, should Texas lose to Kansas on Sunday, the Longhorns will be tough to place as a two-seed. They couldn’t be the two-seed in Kansas’ region (likely the Midwest), nor would it be fair to Memphis if the Longhorns were the two-seed in the South Region (to be played in Houston, TX). This leaves only the West (UCLA as the one-seed) and East (UNC as the one-seed). Not that it matters a lot, but Texas and UCLA already played this year. Therefore, there’s a chance the Longhorns could end up in the East Region. Depending on how things fall on the committee’s S-curve (the overall list of all 65 teams in order of strength in comparison to the regional setup), Georgetown could easily become the lowest of the two-seeds (eighth overall) and end up in the East Region with the Tar Heels once again. The worst case scenario is a region that breaks down with UNC as the one-seed, Tennessee as the two-seed, and Georgetown as the three-seed. Not unlikely at this point.

Moving down the seeding list, it’s safe to say that one of the above-mentioned five teams battling for a two-seed will become a three-seed. Stanford as well. However, I’m at a loss for who becomes the other two three-seeds. I’m betting on at least one Big East team, likely Louisville. But what about Pittsburgh? With Lavance Fields in the lineup at full-strength, Pitt is 18-1. The Panthers also just won four games in four days to capture the Big East tournament title. It’s at least possible that Pitt climbs this high based on those two facts. For the record, Xavier looks more likely to be the fourth of the three-seeds to me.

Clemson is also climbing high. A win in the ACC Tournament final over the number one ranked Tar Heels would propel the Tigers to a 4-seed in my opinion. Even with a loss, Clemson is looking like at least a 6, maybe even a 5.

In discussing the bubble, we must first mention the last question I posed earlier: how many more bids are stolen on Sunday? Both Georgia and Illinois have a chance to earn an automatic bid, which were certainly not accounted for prior to this week. Fans of any team on the so-called bubble will be cheering loudly for Wisconsin and Arkansas, two teams who will earn bids regardless of Sunday’s results, to win and keep those bubble spots open.

Now, for the bubble itself. Here’s the breakdown as of right now:

UMBC
Temple
UNC
Belmont
Pittsburgh
Texas
Portland St
Winthrop
Wisconsin
Cal St Northridge
George Mason
Memphis
Butler
Cornell
Siena
Kent St
Coppin St
Drake
UNLV
Mt Saint Mary's
Austin Peay
UCLA
American
Arkansas
Davidson
NW State
Miss Valley St
Oral Roberts
Western Ky
San Diego
Boise St
Duke

Clemson
Xavier
Marquette
Georgetown
UCONN
Lousiville
West Virginia
Notre Dame
Michigan St
Indiana
Purdue
Kansas
Oklahoma
Baylor
Kansas St
Texas A&M
Stanford
Washington St
USC
Tennessee
Vanderbilt
Mississippi St
BYU
Gonzaga
St Mary's
Miami
Arizona
Kentucky
South Alabama
St. Joseph's
Illinois St
Virginia Tech
Villanova

The 31 bold-faced teams are the conference tournament champions/highest remaining seeds playing for the conference tournament championship. Therefore, these are currently classified as automatic bid teams. The remaining 34 teams, numbers 32-65, are at-large spots. They are in no order until you get to number 58 Miami. 58-65 are the spots still somewhat up for grabs. Beginning with St. Joseph’s at number 62 is the real bubble to me, as I feel that 58-61 are pretty safe right now. That would make St. Joe’s, Illinois St., Virginia Tech, and Villanova my last four in as of Saturday night.

As for who is left out, here’s the list:

ASU
Oregon
UMASS
New Mexico
Ohio St
VCU
Florida


Arizona St was tough for sure, as is Ohio St. Both are so-so major conference teams with some strong wins. However, I think Villanova has a stronger resume than both and Virginia Tech is playing better than both (Hokie bias anyone?). UMASS would make four Atlantic 10 teams in the dance, which is ridiculous, but the committee is not supposed to (and should not) consider such things. New Mexico hurt itself by losing early in the MWC tournament, so that made this omission a little easier.

Quickly on the Hokies, my employer and most-watched team. This is a young squad that has improved leaps and bounds the last month. Since being throttled as Carolina by 39 points, the Hokies have played extremely well. However, their best win is still over Miami. The numbers are ok, the quality wins are not there. But, if the committee is considering how well teams are playing right now and the potential for tournament success, then VT should get in. I promise there are 5 & 6 seeds sitting around hoping they don’t draw Virginia Tech in the first round.

Keep in mind that these bubble spots are assuming that Georgia and Illinois both lose on Sunday. Let’s hope that’s the case for the Hokies and Wildcats, as they would both potentially lose spots in the biggest dance of them all.

I hope to get in another update quickly on Sunday prior to the brackets, but don’t bet on it. Heck, I hope to even have an updated bracket done before the selections are made public. I’ll post my (honest) predicted bracket and the actual bracket either late Sunday night or early Monday morning to be checked for accuracy. Until then, Merry March Madness everyone.

Carolina Spirit

I have a feeling she'd be celebrating right now. Dancing around her house or some bar on Franklin St, decked out in Carolina garb, toasting her beloved Tar Heels' 26th ACC Regular Season Championship. Better yet, you know she'd be thrilled that it was attained thanks to a victory on the road, at supposedly the toughest place to play in America, against the hated rival. I don't know if she'd have tuned in for the post-game show or not, but surely she'd have read Roy Williams' quotes today online. Of course, she'd have read Adam Lucas' piece too; who doesn't?

Last night, throughout this epic contest for the top spot in the ACC, she was probably cheering from elsewhere, looking down on the game and wondering why no one thought it mattered that much in the big picture. She might not fully understand why everyone in our family, the Carolina family, has been so shaken by her passing. "Just win the game" might have been the thought. I honestly don't know. But I do know is that throughout the game, she was never far from anyone's mind. Her beloved coach, Roy Williams, said as much following the game. She was honored before the game by our hated rival, who showed tremendous class and empathy; honestly, exactly as expected. As a result, she might admit, as would I quite readily, that they aren't that different from us. The Dookies hurt too, they grieve and can understand the human side of our rivalry. They know that a loss on Senior Night pales in comparison to a loss of a senior's life. And, we thank them for that. The support, the honor, even the love they've shown. She was on our jerseys, their jerseys, their hats, and in everyone's heart.

So today, the day after the big game, she'd wonder why the first articles her fellow Tar Heels are reading are not about the game. They are about her. Her life. Her death.

You see, a lot of us didn't know you Eve. We've graduated and begun our lives in the real world. Our lives that have half the promise that your's did. Yet, we see some of ourselves in you. Your zeal, your innocence, your Carolina spirit. And we love it and love you. We love you because you're part of our Carolina family. And now, our family is once again grieving. See, it has been nearly a year since another of our Carolina brethren was tragically lost. A little less than a year ago, the tears flowed and the grief stung. Our school grieved a life full of energy and promise lost. To me, the big picture of both your life and Jason's life are incredibly similar. Such a positive impact on people, a diverse skill set, the habit of getting so excited about something that you could hardly get a sentence out. We see a lot of the same things in your lives and feel a lot of the same things in your deaths. Both of you were loved and befriended by many; today, all of those people continue to grieve. We grieve for you and for ourselves.

But most of all, Eve, we thank you. We thank you for your Carolina spirit and passion for our school. We thank you for your service as Student Body President. We thank you for loving life and living it 100%. I know you were not perfect, but it has been an honor to get to know you these past few days. Through articles, quotes, facebook pages, and other people, we've become friends. I am sure our paths crossed at some point your freshman year, but I was not fortunate enough to meet you. Now, in your passing, I finally have. And I look forward to meeting you again in heaven one day, as you truly seem to be such a special person.

For now, Eve, we are praying for you, your family, your friends. And, we're praying for us, our Carolina family, our Carolina friends. We'll continue cheering on our Boys in Baby Blue as they chase a national title. We will be cheering with heavy hearts. But, it helps a bit to know that you're cheering from above as well. So go Tar Heels, Eve. I hope we embody that Carolina Spirit that you talked about in your honor. RIP.