MLB 2006 "Guesses"

So I guess it is about time I actually posted my Major League Baseball picks for this season. Allow me to forewarn everyone: these are actually guesses. In a weird way, I find professional sports very difficult to pick. Maybe it is because the seasons are so long, especially baseball, and injuries have more time to creep up or devastate a good team. In general, I think everyone has a sense of who is going to be competitive and who just stinks. But, choosing between these competitive teams is tough. And, I know I will be wrong, so that helps.

I’ll put it like this: seven AL teams have a chance, six NL teams have a chance, and each league will have one surprise team to make a division race interesting. With that being said, here are the teams that will compete:

AL East: NY, Boston, Toronto; AL Central: Minnesota, Chicago; AL West: Oakland, Anaheim; Surprise: either the Detroit Tigers or Minnesota Twins

NL East: Atlanta, NY; NL Central: St. Louis, Houston, Milwaukee; NL West: whatever .500 ballclub wins this debacle of a division; Surprise: Philly? Washington? Chicago? Cubs baby.

Discussion:

The AL East is possibly the deepest division in baseball, as Tampa Bay and Baltimore are at least marginally competitive teams. The Blue Jays improved significantly in the off-season, but the key areas for Toronto are Vernon Wells and Lyle Overbay. Wells has to have an MVP-candidate season for the Jays to contend and Overbay must be an RBI machine. I’m a huge fan of Overbay personally, but I’m just not sure this team is quite ready yet. Add in the fact that come the July 31st trade deadline, the Yankees and Red Sox will go acquire whatever each needs for the stretch run while Toronto will have to be more frugal. Therefore, Boston and the Yanks are still at the top. If Papalbon can close for Boston, they should be fine. It is also disconcerting for New York to be counting on solid years from Aaron Small, Chien-Ming Wang, Jaret Wright, and Shawn Chacon. Yikes. That being said, the Yankees will still win the division because I could be their fifth starter, have an ERA of 6.50, and still win 12 games because my run support would be 8.2 runs/gm.

The AL Central could be interesting if Detroit plays well for even half a season. I felt like the Tigers’ pitching was actually pretty solid entering the season, but they just don’t have the bats. Somewhat similar to Kansas City’s feel-good story a few years back. Minnesota is also capable because they have such good pitching. Chicago and Cleveland are both very solid. Hopefully we’ll have a neck-and-neck race between them down to the final week of the season.

The AL West has two great teams and two not-so-great teams. Oakland and Anaheim will battle all year long as Seattle and Texas struggle.

AL Picks: Yankees, Indians, A’s, White Sox (Wild Card)

The NL East is pretty solid as well, much like its AL counterpart. I’m not sold on Philadelphia, plus I hate the Phillies. The Nats are decent, but young. I think they can compete if Nick Johnson hits 35 HRs and drives in 125 or so. Add former Virginia star 3B Ryan Zimmerman to the mix of Johnson, Jose Guillen, and Left Field Soriano and Washington will hang around much like last season. The Metropolitans upgraded significantly, but they are old at key postions (starting pitching and closer Billy Wagner mainly). The Mets will be very, very good. And I see Atlanta struggling when Jeff Francoeur is hitting .240 in June before he hurts his shoulder and is out for the season. But, the Braves will win the division because…well, that’s what the Braves do. They also choke in the playoffs and surely will suck everyone in to believing this could be the year after winning 90+ regular season games. They will then proceed to rip everyone’s heart out, step on it, push it around in the dirt, poop on it, and break it piece by piece. I hate the Braves. And by hate, I mean love them to the point of hating them. Chop chop.

The NL Central will be fun. St. Louis will win the division because the Cards are still the best team in the NL, have a great pitching staff, and have some kid named Pujols. But I like the Cubs’ chances of having a decent season. It almost helps to have Prior and Wood on the DL already, as there is little optimism or increased pressure. Carlos Zambrano is good enough to carry the staff and will do it as the bona fide number one starter this year. Milwaukee is solid, but young, and lacks the pitching depth. Houston should never be as good as they are, but somehow they find a way to be around the wild card race in September. Pittsburgh and Cincinnati are two cities responsible for ESPN deciding to donate a week of coverage to the NFL releasing its schedule last week. Ridiculous. As in, maybe the dumbest thing ESPN has ever done outside of Barry Bonds. There is an NFL Network that covers this “event” each year. But I’m sure people in SteelTown and Cincy tuned in. I obviously did not.

The NL West should be disqualified. That being said, the Braves will likely lose to some sorry team out of this division in October , so I’m probably just bitter. Let’s just say the teams in the NL West all have flaws and end it there. I’m going with a shocker pick here because it is fun.

NL Picks: Atlanta, St. Louis, Colorado, Chicago (Wild Card)

Post-season Picks/Awards

AL MVP: A-Rod, Eric Chavez, Big Papi, Travis Hafner
AL Cy Young: Johan Santana, Huston Street, Jeremy Bonderman, Randy Johnson
AL Rookie of the Year: Francisco Liriano, Ian Kisler

NL MVP: Albert Pujols…Albert Pujols…Albert Pujols…
NL Cy Young: Carlos Zambrano, Roy Oswalt, Jason Schmidt, Tim Hudson
NL Rookie of the Year: Ryan Zimmerman, Prince Fielder

Oakland over White Sox as Frank Thomas hits .413 in the series
Yankees over Cleveland because Randy Johnson scares Cleveland’s kids

Yankees over Oakland because I don’t want to jinx Oakland

St. Louis over Colorado after Pujols hits 6 home runs in the series
Chicago over Atlanta after Zambrano shuts down the Braves twice

Albert Pujols

Yankees over Al & the gang in six games because 9 Yankee hitters > Albert Pujols. But just barely.