Picks

Atlanta Region:
1st round: Duke, UNC-W, Syracuse, LSU, So Illinois, Iowa, NC State, Texas
2nd round: Duke, LSU, Iowa, Texas
Sweet 16: Duke, Texas'
Elite 8: Duke
Thoughts: As alluded to yesterday, picking Duke over Texas was my toughest pick in this entire pool. I initially went with the Longhorns and honestly think they have a great chance. They are deep and have a huge frontline. But I have seen Duke so much this year and really just picked them because they've won close games all year. SIU over West Virginia is the only real upset here, and I honestly think the Salukis could dance their way to the Sweet 16. On the flip side, no one has said a word about Iowa. No one said anything about Marquette or Syracuse three years ago either.

Oakland Region:
1st round: Memphis, Arkansas, Pitt, Kansas, Indiana, Gonzaga, Marquette, UCLA
2nd round: Memphis, Kansas, Indiana, UCLA
Sweet 16: Kansas, UCLA
Elite 8: UCLA
Thoughts: Obviously I haven't let go of the talent Indiana has yet. Now that I made this selection, they will probably lose in the first round to SDSU. Pitt/KU is an impossible selection, a toss-up really. Great potential matchup by the selection committee. Marquette/Bama also was a tough pick. I think Memphis can beat Pitt, but KU is a tougher matchup. Very similar teams, keep in mind that Memphis has no tournament experience aside from Rodney Carney. In the end, UCLA gets it done if they get by IU. This region will make/break everyone's bracket because there is no favorite.

DC Region:
1st round: UCONN, UAB, Washington, Illinois, Michigan St, N Carolina, Seton Hall, Tennessee
2nd round: UCONN, Washington, N Carolina, Tennessee
Sweet 16: UCONN, N Carolina
Elite 8: UCONN
Thoughts: UCONN's to lose, like I said in my preview. No really tough picks here for me, I just hope I did not jinx my boys. Keep in mind, for those who know me, that UCONN has been my number two team for about 17 years now. I have faith in Coach Calhoun to fire these guys up, and I will be pulling for them (but only after the Tar Heels are eliminated). In a head-to-head matchup, it's not even a question as to who I cheer for. UCONN - I support; Carolina - I am.

Minneapolis Region:
1st round: Villanova, Arizona, Nevada, BC, Wisc-Milwaukee, Florida, G'town, Ohio St
2nd round: Villanova, BC, Florida, G'town
Sweet 16: Villanova, G'town
Elite 8: Villanova
Thoughts: The bottom half of this bracket is going to explode, like I said yesterday. I went the safe route, picking only OU to lose in the first round. But Georgetown was too tempting to pass up in round two. My luck will probably be that No Iowa beats the Hoyas and then Ohio St. Oh well. Villanova vs BC is a huge potential matchup. Overall, I could see this region falling apart as well, especially if 'Nova fell in the second round to underachieving Arizona or steady Wisconsin. The Wildcats kind of remind me of the 2000 Tar Heels squad that knocked off Stanford, etc, en route to a surprise Final Four berth. Not saying Arizona will do it (I did not pick them to do so), but just that the pattern of their season is similar.

Final Four:
UCONN over Villanova in the rubber match (both teams won at home in matchups earlier this season). I just think UCONN is too big up front and Coach Cal will provide an advantage in preparing his Huskies to play a team they have already seen twice. In the other matchup, I like Duke over UCLA. Just too much talent and experience, plus the Coach K edge. I also think Texas would defeat UCLA if they were to play here.

UCONN over Duke in the National Championship Game. We've seen this exact matchup in the '99 title game and the '04 Final Four. UCONN won both times. I think depth would be a factor, as will Marcus Williams having a size/strength advantage over Greg Paulus.

Summary:
For UCONN to win, a perimeter player has to get hot and stay hot, a la Rip Hamilton or Ben Gordon. Rudy Gay is the most talented player, but a hot shooting Denham Brown or Rashad Anderson will be necessary to win it all.

Remember how exciting last year's tournament was? Some good first round upsets (KU, Syracuse), huge second rounders (West Va, NC State, etc), and the best day of Elite Eight games in history. This year will be great, but last year may have set us up for a letdown. The big early upsets are fun, but they often cut down on the number of quality games later in the tournament. Hopefully we'll see some of both.

Carolina fans, as I wrote two weeks ago, remember how it felt last season. Some team, some fanbase will experience the same thing this season. Be happy for them, for they will deserve it. Enjoy everyone.