NCAA Tournament Preview

No doubt this will be the longest entry I have ever had, as the coverage of the NCAA Tournament is quite extensive. I will try to remain organized in this order: Region-by-region preview, potential upsets, darkhorse teams, overhyped/underhyped, key players, coaches, conferences, the ACC more specifically, 5 to Thrive review, and finally the Tar Heels.

Atlanta Region:
I honestly think the committee did a good job of one thing: balancing the regions. For instance, ESPN.com broke down the bracket thoughts of seven or eight analysts into a chart. The toughest region and easiest region answers all varied. The parody of teams seeded 2-6 is largely to thank. It all depends on the matchup and which team shows up, as many of these squads have been very inconsistent.
That being said, I think Atlanta is fairly easy for Duke & Texas to meet in the Elite 8. George Washington is a squad I have doubted all year; add in the injury to Pops M-B and they have no chance against Duke if they play them. Texas’ strength is its frontline play, which Cal could match in the second round. However, Cal must be a wounded NC State team first. Either way, the ‘Horns are the strongest of these teams. This region gets interesting in the 3/6 pod. So Illinois is strong and West Va has been up and down all year. That being said, if the Mountaineers got hot, they could see the Elite 8 again this year. Iowa is not a strong shooting team, but finds a way to win (as you should). Everyone is sleeping on the Hawkeyes… me included. Finally, LSU is by far the best team in the 4/5 pod. Syracuse is prime for an upset and Texas A&M has improved.
The Sweet 16 & Elite 8 rounds are the toughest to predict here. Texas could have a fit with West Va, but should defeat either Iowa or WVU. LSU may not have quite enough against Duke; plus, I think the coaching edge favors Duke in a huge way. Duke & Texas meeting in the regional final was the game I sat and stared at the longest. I’m still not sure who I would pick if they met. I have seen Duke all year though and find them to be the real deal. What a game it would be…hopefully better this time than it was in December when Duke won by 31 points.

Oakland Region:
No clue on this region. I think overall it is the weakest region, and could provide the most upsets (esp in the second round). No one believes in Memphis, but I think they will see the Sweet 16 at least. Kansas/Pitt in the second round is a toss-up if they were to play. I do not buy Gonzaga and really think Indiana would beat them, but only if SDSU does not knock IU out first. UCLA is the most balanced team in the region. They hit shots and play great defense that keeps them in ballgames when their offense is dragging.
It is tough to predict anything here because every single high seed has a tough road to the Sweet 16. I can predict that this region will make or break brackets across the country (except for the choice of the correct Nat’l Champ). The reason is there is no clear favorite because so many people will pick a team other than Memphis or UCLA to win it. Gonzaga got the national vote on ESPN.com, KU is hot, Pitt is solid, and Indiana has a coach to play for. Should be fun.

Washington DC Region:
UCONN is the overwhelming favorite to win this region. Mainly because it is the most talented team and no one else in the region is particularly scary. I really believe the only way someone else advances is if UCONN falls early. The Huskies (of Connecticut) matchup well with most everyone here because of their overwhelming size, depth, and experience. The key area is defense. If UCONN fails to play solid defense, the road to Indy will prove much tougher. Regardless, they can probably still get there.
The other teams in this region face challenges early. Tennessee has been a sexy pick to be upset in the first round. I think Bruce Pearl will use this to motivate his team to play well, as he is a master motivator already. The second round game for the Vols against either Seton Hall or Wichita St has also been a popular upset choice. It certainly could happen. Michigan St has also been a popular Sweet 16/Elite 8 choice for many. George Mason will not go quietly in the first round and the Tar Heels also provide a solid roadblock mule. This potential second round matchup has fans drooling. Washington and Illinois both should watch out early on, especially the Huskies. Utah St is a good team and could pull the upset.
Overall, this region is UCONN’s to lose. It is a very tough region for everyone else because the lower seeds are all so good. Add the potential of playing UCONN and everyone else would call this a tough region. But not the Huskies.

Minneapolis Region:
I have seen analysts and brackets that picked Villanova and Boston College from this group and that is really about all. Only Hubert Davis (former Tar Heel) on ESPN picked Ohio St that I have seen, but I am sure there are others. Villanova obviously needs Allen Ray to be healthy and play strong to advance. After watching BC last weekend in person, I know they are hot right now. Just don’t pick them because they are hot. Pick the Eagles because they are experienced and seem to be on a mission. I was not sold on them at the start of the season and I was right until late January. Now, they look pretty good. However, a tough first round game with Pacific awaits in Salt Lake City on Thursday at 12:30EST…all that after a brutal weekend in the ACC Tournament. Survive and advance.
The bottom half of this bracket is a time bomb waiting to explode, 24 style. Every team has a tough first round matchup, including Ohio St. The Davidson Wildcats are good, but more on this later. Georgetown has also been a popular Sweet 16 choice, but getting by No Iowa will be a challenge. The game will be low scoring and could look a great deal like the West Va/Creighton first rounder last year. Florida & Oklahoma will both be pushed and each has shaky tournament resumes in recent years. Each team has been to a Final Four (UF in 2000, OU in 2002), but each has been upset numerous other years.
All in all, the trend has been to anoint the winner of BC/Villanova as the Final 4 team from this region. I would put my money there at this point, mostly because the lower half of the region looks prime to fall apart. In general, both BC & ‘Nova are stronger right now than anyone else. That does not mean that logic or a hot streak will hold up.

Potential Upsets:
Five upsets that could happen, but I more than likely do not have the coconuts to pick:
Davidson over Ohio St. I know, OSU is one of my 5 to Thrive. And I do not think this will happen. But it could. I would even say it is more likely than Winthrop over Tennessee.
South Alabama over Florida. Both teams love to run, so I do not think the style of USA (that’s South Alabama) will be as much of an advantage as it could have been. This will only happen if the Gators forget about Hortford and Noah inside and chuck up threes all day. Just dump the ball low where you have a huge advantage and advance.
SDSU over Indiana. A make-or-break game for me, as IU has Sweet 16 potential. I thought the Hoosiers were Final Four good back in December, and the talent (minus injured DJ White) is still there. But the Aztecs are a solid club. It could happen, and lots of people will predict it too.
UAB over UCONN. Huh? I thought UCONN was unbeatable. Well, yeah, but UAB is faster a lightning. If UAB get by Kentucky, if UAB pressures UCONN into a ton of turnovers, and if UAB rebounds harder than it ever has, the Blazers will lose by five. But if Marcus Williams got in foul trouble for UCONN…
Oral Roberts over Memphis. Nah.


Darkhorse Teams:
· Indiana. Like I said, the talent is still there and the
region is not that tough. The first round game will be very tough and they must hit their threes the entire way. The reason I stand by them is Marco Killingsworth in the middle could be this tournament’s Sean May inside. Having said that, SDSU will probably beat them and make me look stupid.
· Georgetown. Princeton-style offense with Hibbert inside
could be a problem for the Minneapolis region. Furthermore, if G’town played Villanova in the regional finals, familiarity would play a factor, as it did the last time these teams met in the NCAA Tournament (’85 finals won by 8-seed Villanova).
· Others to watch – Arizona/Wisconsin winner, Boston College (do they count?), Marquette (Novak could be this year’s Pittsnogle), So Illinois (the darkest horse of them all).

Over/Under Hyped:
Over: Tennessee, Syracuse, Michigan St (I may regret that), Florida, Gonzaga, West Va.
Under: LSU, Indiana, Nevada, Washington

Players:
I like Brandon Roy at Washington, Steve Novak at Marquette, Terence Dials at Ohio St, Joakim Noah at Florida, all the freshmen at LSU/KU/UNC, and Marcus Williams for UCONN. Other guys who are more of role players on good teams will be instrumental to their teams’ advancing include McRoberts and Paulus at Duke (if Paulus play like he did in the ACC Tournament, they will be in the Final Four at least), Denham Brown at UCONN, Jason Frazier at Villanova, Darius Washington Jr. at Memphis, and Brad Buckman at Texas.

Coaches:
Nothing specific, but mid-major coaches will use the big stage to project themselves into bigger jobs. Funny, if mod-majors are supposed to be this great thing, why do coaches always leave these schools for BCS conference jobs? Oh yeah, they make more money because these programs make more money. Yeah, college basketball is an educating business. I wouldn’t mind seeing Rick Barnes win himself a title; same for Bill Self. They are two of the best coaches to have not won a title at this point. Oh wait, Rick Barnes fought with Dean Smith and I went to Carolina…but seriously, Barnes is a terrific coach and deserves to win it someday.

Conferences:
The Missouri Valley has a lot to prove. A LOT. BM-ing about not getting enough teams in can only be validated by wining in the tournament, which the league has not done much of recently. Utah St and Air Force had better not get blown out, as their bids were quite controversial. I also think the SEC and Pac-10 must have good showings. The Pac-10 has been bashed all year and needs a good run. The SEC, I personally believe, is over-seeded in the regions except for LSU (who should have been higher maybe). Tennessee and Florida are over-seeded, as are Kentucky and possibly Arkansas. Furthermore, since Kentucky’s mid-90s dominance and consecutive ’94-’95 appearances by the Arkansas Hogs, only Florida in 2000 has made the Final Four from the league. The Pac-10 has had only one team (Arizona in ’01) in the Final Four during the same time period. Time to walk the walk fellas.

ACC:
Duke will be disappointed with anything less than a Nat’l Title. I think they are at least Final Four good. Avoiding LSU and/or Texas would make their path very smooth. What I do not think people outside the league recognize is Duke never lacks intensity for an entire game. Coach K recognizes it before they take the court and kicks it out of his guys immediately. But the Devils talent is solid this year as well. Last year’s squad clearly overachieved in garnering a 1-seed; this year’s is legit.
Boston College & Carolina each have the ability to make Final Four runs. BC is truthfully a better team and would have its toughest matchup in the Sweet 16 potentially with Villanova. I think one weakness here is how laid back Al Skinner is. He is a terrific coach and has implemented a perfect system for this squad. However, BC has traditionally come out flat in games against lesser competition. I’m not knocking Coach Skinner, as I think he is underrated nationally. I am questioning the team’s ability to maintain intensity and close out a game.
Carolina on the other hand still has little tournament experience. I think the youngsters will be wide-eyed Friday night against Murray St, much like they were the first time they put on the Carolina uniforms in the season-opener against Gardner Webb. Hansbrough actually mouthed “whoa” coming out of the tunnel and Ginyard could not stop smiling during warmups. If the Heels survive what could be a close opening round game with Murray St, they should be fine after that.
Finally, NC State must ignore the doubt everyone else has about them and play its game. The Wolfpack’s largest weakness right now (besides health) is confidence. Cedric Simmons is a key down low. Getting him going inside will free the shooters up for better shots around the perimeter. State has a tendency to shoot bad early on and get down on themselves. Instead, work the ball inside and then start firing at will. Texas will pose a tremendous challenge in the second round should State knock off over-seeded Cal.

5 to Thrive:
Kansas, North Carolina, Ohio St, Washington, and LSU. Those were my choices two weeks ago, really a month ago. All have Final Four ability, but some got a tough draw. Kansas has the best chance because the Jayhawks were placed in a wide-open region. Washington has the worst path simply because Utah St, Illinois, UCONN is a tough road for any team. Ohio St, as I mentioned early, does not look as promising to me, but I do not know why. Honestly, I liked this squad under the radar more than as a favorite. If the Buckeyes feed the beast in the middle, Big Ten POY Terence Dials, they may be ok. UNC, like Washington, has to contend with UCONN should they advance that far. Michigan St is clearly in the way should both teams advance; remember, the Spartans were picked by many prognosticators in the pre-season as a Final Four team. Finally, LSU is a wildcard right now. I know they have the talent, but Tyrus Thomas must be fully healthy for the Tigers to be at full strength. The Tigers could definitely give Duke a problem and have the frontcourt to play with Texas. So, we’ll see how well I predicted a month ago in about two weeks.

North Carolina Tar Heels:
If you aren’t a Carolina fan, quit reading and skip to the bottom. Quickly, the Tar Heels must work everyone into the offense. Relying on Tyler down low will win a game, but not a championship. Terry must play smarter than he did in the ACC Tournament, especially where foul trouble is concerned. Other teams outside the league are at a disadvantage because they do not realize how strong and durable Hansbrough is, how good a shooter Wes Miller is, or how athletic Noel and Terry are. As a team, rebounding, taking care of the ball, and free throws are keys (like always for most every team). All in all, someone must get hot along with Hansbrough down low for the tournament and just fill the bucket (that would be you Reyshawn Terry). Big picture: one game at a time for UNC, but looking ahead, pray UCONN loses. I like the chances against Illinois again and think Washington is a decent matchup. However, I would not bother thinking about that too much. Either way, it has been a great season, far exceeding most fans’ expectations. When we all sat around and counted wins that we needed to get just to make the tournament, we allowed ourselves the best-case scenario. That scenario was 10-6 in the league, a 5-seed, and losing in the Sweet 16. So far, the team exceeded both those best-case scenarios. It will be sad if they lose, but sad only because a great ride ended in disappointment for the players and coaches. As fans, we have been treated to the most fun season in quite sometime. Remember this as you watch the next few weeks.


Ok, that wraps it up. I am ready for some Madness. My picks will be up tomorrow at some point, maybe as late as tomorrow night. They will be the same picks I enter in a private league on yahoo!, so there are plenty of close friends to verify their legitimacy. Enjoy the tournament everyone.