Is there a more fascinating hip-hop star than Paul Wall today? How does a white dude from Houston (not historically the mecca of hip-hop) turn into a chart-topping artist? It's a simple formula really, but the execution and precision are what make his schtick fascinating to me.
1. Create a distinct look - how is it supposed to get more distinct than a white guy with sparkly teeth?
2. Create a distinct sound - His lyrics are incredibly simple. Which is why his singles catch on so easily, everyone can sing them. When I hear a 14 year-old female hick (and that's putting it mildly) at a basketball game singing "lemme see ya grill, yeah yo grill," then it's easy to sing. But, Paul Wall also works in everyday culture into his lyrics. He raps about being rich & fly, having a nice car, nice teeth, and women, like most rappers. But, he also works in lyrics about sports, other songs, cities, and people. Nelly is well-known for combining a great deal of sports references with catchy beats, and Paul Wall has taken this formula to the next level.
3. Create a personna - when you tell someone, "hey, he looks like Paul Wall," they know exactly what you mean. There is an image associated with him that is easy to remember.
4. Create good music - ok, I wouldn't label most of Paul Wall's songs as deep, or even good at times. But, catchy, definitely. To the point of being over-played by stations that play "everything" (aka Top 40) and hip-hop. Also, most of his rhymes are analogies. Similes and metaphors galore. Example - "Now to broads I'm a sharp-shooter like Steve Kerr..." is a line in his new single, I'm Throwed. Somehow, making a reference to Steve Kerr, a retired basketball player, is fascinating to me. At the least, his music is creative.
With this formula, Paul Wall has worked his way into the mainstream music culture and helped put Houston on the hip-hop map, even working in some reference to Texas along the way. I do wonder if he is resented or portrayed as a wanna-be by our culture. I'm not sure, feedback is welcome. But, I do know that he is very, very different from Eminem. Eminem, first of all, can flow with the best of 'em. I'm sure Paul Wall is talented, but Eminem seems to have a little more substance than show. Also, Eminem predominately used shock value and Dr. Dre to enter into our thoughts; Paul Wall has more or less elbowed his way in with his teeth, if that's possible. Finally, Eminem really has a look that a lot of girls seem to go for. I knew numerous girls in high school who had him in their Hot Five. Paul Wall doesn't seem to have that going from him, at least from this heterosexual male perspective.
Though different, both white rappers have seemed to make a place for themselves in a mostly black industry. Personally, I could care less what color an artist is; I just want some good music. White rappers or black country singers ("clickity clack, I'm big and black" - Cowboy Troy) ...I just like good music. For now, I'm just going to enjoy the catchiness of Paul Wall and continue to marvel at his climb into prominence within the hip-hop and mainstream music fronts.
"It's the Ice Man baby and you know what it do, I'm throwed."
Thursday, April 26, 2007
Tuesday, April 24, 2007
The Sports World
It is nice to write about something as meaningless and unnecessary as sports again. However, please continue to keep Jason Ray’s family, the victims & families at Virginia Tech, and Christie Smith in your prayers.
Random thoughts on sports, both recent past, present, and near future:
On a national scope, three major events right now. The NBA Playoffs are underway, which basically means the NBA season has finally commenced. After six months of boredom and tanking, the good teams are remaining and their stars will begin taking it to the next level. Of course, the excitement of the playoffs can be destroyed with an NBA Finals matchup of San Antonio & Detroit, or enhanced with Phoenix & Cleveland. Either way, I unashamedly love the NBA Playoffs. LOVE it. After discussing the matchups and big picture of the post-season with a few friends, I really have no gauge on who will win the title. San Antonio and Detroit have a huge advantage because of each team’s defensive prowess. Houston could say the same thing, but I just don’t see them going three rounds to even make the finals. I like Chicago’s squad, but there is no way they can ride four jump shooters to a title. Denver was the darkhorse, until they beat San Antonio in the first game of that series…now they’re the lighthorse I guess. Thanks, I’ll be here all weekend.
Seriously, as a buddy mentioned to me, Detroit should be the favorite because of their balance, experience, hunger, and the fact that they will be more rested if they make the finals than their counterparts. Cleveland looks to be the only Eastern Conference squad who could give the Pistons a run, seeing as Dwayne Wade is playing at about 65% health. Out west, I almost always pick the Spurs. However, I think Dallas will come back, defeat the pesky Warriors in a long series, then gain some confidence as they roll back to the finals. But go Spurs. And go Raptors, like anyone in Canada has anything else to cheer for, besides…
The NHL Playoffs. The NBA & NHL have identically long regular and post-seasons, but exactly the opposite color of dudes playing their sports. And I have no clue why. Either way, I love everyone, so I watch the mullets in hockey just as much as the afros & dreads in basketball. The NHL has already moved to the second round, with Vancouver the lone remaining representative from the Great White North, hence why Canadians have only the Canucks to cheer for besides the Toronto Raptors. Keeping this short and sweet, I like the Buffalo Sabres to roll through the east, even though the New York Rangers looked nasty in the opening round. Out west, Anaheim is the team to beat in my mind. What a great Stanley Cup Finals matchup that would produce, for all 17 of the hockey fans to watch. By the way, I love how last year everyone in North Carolina, especially the Triangle area, became a hockey fan for two months. Now, no one watches the playoffs since the Canes are not participating. And we want a Major League Baseball team in North Carolina? We don’t support the Bobcats, only support the Canes & Panthers when they’re winning, but we want a team in the state that has 81 home games a year? Just stick to college athletics and NASCAR.
Finally, the NFL Draft is coming up this weekend. Straight up, the Panthers should pick Patrick Willis, the linebacker from Ole Miss if he’s available at the fourteenth pick. They shouldn’t even use the entirely-too-long fifteen minute time block that’s allotted to them to make that selection. However, if he’s gone (which he should be), then we have a problem on our hands. I’m not a huge fan of picking a safety there if his name is not LaRon Landry, but I guess I could deal with Reggie Nelson. No other linebacker is supposed to be selected that high, with that Timmons guy from FSU as the only viable candidate. A WR is a possibility, as the draft has lots of those. Personally, if Willis is gone, I’m hoping Jamal Anderson, the defensive end from Arkansas, slides to the Panthers. Mike Rucker is a great human being, but not a healthy football player. I really think a decent safety can be had later in the draft while an elite pass rusher should be taken as early as possible. All I know is if I read one more mock draft that has the Panthers taking Greg Olsen at tight end in the first round, I’m going to flip out. I could be wrong, but it just doesn’t make sense that the team would waste its first rounder selection on the position it values the least. Yes, I’d love to have a great threat at tight end, but John Fox, Marty Hurney, et al do not value that spot. Last time I checked, they’re still in charge. My guess is we end up with Ted Ginn Jr. or a defensive end.
On to the more-localized portion of our show. Brandan Wright declared for the NBA Draft and Tar Heel fans everywhere shed a small tear. Ok, that’s an exaggeration, but the tantalizing thought of, “my, what could have been” is now in the past. Truthfully, any knowledgeable fan would agree that Wright made the correct decision. Yes, college is great, and yes, life is so much fan…but $3.5 million guaranteed dollars is still $3.5 million guaranteed dollars. Hel-lo. There is little tangible gain in staying. Of course winning an NCAA Championship is awesome and no feeling or amount of money can replace that, but it is not guaranteed. The last time I checked, the $3.5 million dollars are guaranteed. End of discussion.
So what does that mean for next year? Not a lot really. Carolina will still be top five pre-season and will more than likely finish in the top five at the end of the regular season. As a regular reader would know (can you be a regular reader of someone’s blog who writes on an irregular basis?), I am madly in love with Deon Thompson’s game. His offensive moves are solid and he has the chance to be an All-ACC player in his college career. More PT for Big D is a good thing. Alex Stepheson will also benefit. Not much was made of Stepheson’s season in 2006-2007, but he should be a more-than-adequate sub off the bench for Roy’s Boys. I am quietly optimistic that his shot-blocking skills will prove solid enough to make a difference for the team’s defense, as lack of a shot-blocking presence has been an Achilles heal for the Heels in recent years.
In truth, the success of next season will depend greatly on the success of this off-season. How much improvement will the freshmen make? Can Danny Green step into the roll of a consistent offensive threat at the 3-spot, whether he starts or not? Vitally important is the re-development of Bobby Frasor after last season became a lost cause due to injury. There is no real backup to Wayne Ellington at the 2-guard spot (assuming Ginyard is a 3) and Frasor has also proven to be a steady point guard when healthy. Also, Mike Copeland will be called on for spot minutes next season. I am afraid of Deon Thompson trying to guard the 4-spot, so foul trouble could become a regular issue, forcing Copeland into more minutes. I can really see Copeland becoming the Wes Miller of next year’s team. No, not a short white guy who shoots threes, but a high-energy, scrappy player who the fans and especially the students can rally behind. Ultimately, the Tar Heels will be fine next season. I’m not sure a national championship is on the horizon, but a solid year and hopefully an ACC title to boot.
Quick thoughts, then I’m out. Sebastian Telfair is immature and selfish. He’s at a crossroads, much like Pacman Jones: either be a man and grow up or keep acting like a thug and remain immature. One will lead to a great NBA comeback story, the other to the NBDL and eventually cleaning toilets.
TNT’s studio show consisting of Ernie Johnson, Magic Johnson, Charles Barkley, & Kenny “The Jet” Smith (Tar Heel) is the best on television. I LOL-ed last night listening to a rant about Brokeback Mountain, the halftime show in Dallas, and Charles & Kenny’s quality time the previous evening. I’m not sure how they got away with it, but it was hilarious. Just like I said last season, it’s must-see TV.
The Braves are winning with smoke and mirrors. There will come a time this season that the starting pitching will be beaten up and broken down, and the bats will become silent in unison. As the boys and I have contended for three seasons now, this team’s reliance on the long ball looks good when it’s working, but can go into hibernation for extended periods of time. Please give us improved team speed and the ability to play some small ball when needed. Please.
I too am addicted to the possibilities of the upcoming NBA Draft. I will give my arm to have Kevin Durant on the Bobcats. More on that soon. Long drives on Fridays somehow lead to me talking to God in the car about the Bobcats.
Billy Gillispie is the right guy at Kentucky. I wanted State to hire him last year (and by wanted, I mean hoped they would not, because he’s good) and thought Kentucky should make a push for him after Donovan. In fact, I felt from the outset that if Donovan turned them down, he was the next best candidate. Sometimes a resume can be outweighed by potential and being a good fit. This is one of those cases.
Spoiler Alert for Bachelor watchers: Dear Andy the Midshipmen – please pick Amber.
Spoiler Alert for 24 watchers: Jack Bauer, please stop taking projects on your own. And quit producing a show that has stupid plot items that involve ridiculous inner-office politics.
I’m out. If sexy never left, then why’s everybody on my s-…
Random thoughts on sports, both recent past, present, and near future:
On a national scope, three major events right now. The NBA Playoffs are underway, which basically means the NBA season has finally commenced. After six months of boredom and tanking, the good teams are remaining and their stars will begin taking it to the next level. Of course, the excitement of the playoffs can be destroyed with an NBA Finals matchup of San Antonio & Detroit, or enhanced with Phoenix & Cleveland. Either way, I unashamedly love the NBA Playoffs. LOVE it. After discussing the matchups and big picture of the post-season with a few friends, I really have no gauge on who will win the title. San Antonio and Detroit have a huge advantage because of each team’s defensive prowess. Houston could say the same thing, but I just don’t see them going three rounds to even make the finals. I like Chicago’s squad, but there is no way they can ride four jump shooters to a title. Denver was the darkhorse, until they beat San Antonio in the first game of that series…now they’re the lighthorse I guess. Thanks, I’ll be here all weekend.
Seriously, as a buddy mentioned to me, Detroit should be the favorite because of their balance, experience, hunger, and the fact that they will be more rested if they make the finals than their counterparts. Cleveland looks to be the only Eastern Conference squad who could give the Pistons a run, seeing as Dwayne Wade is playing at about 65% health. Out west, I almost always pick the Spurs. However, I think Dallas will come back, defeat the pesky Warriors in a long series, then gain some confidence as they roll back to the finals. But go Spurs. And go Raptors, like anyone in Canada has anything else to cheer for, besides…
The NHL Playoffs. The NBA & NHL have identically long regular and post-seasons, but exactly the opposite color of dudes playing their sports. And I have no clue why. Either way, I love everyone, so I watch the mullets in hockey just as much as the afros & dreads in basketball. The NHL has already moved to the second round, with Vancouver the lone remaining representative from the Great White North, hence why Canadians have only the Canucks to cheer for besides the Toronto Raptors. Keeping this short and sweet, I like the Buffalo Sabres to roll through the east, even though the New York Rangers looked nasty in the opening round. Out west, Anaheim is the team to beat in my mind. What a great Stanley Cup Finals matchup that would produce, for all 17 of the hockey fans to watch. By the way, I love how last year everyone in North Carolina, especially the Triangle area, became a hockey fan for two months. Now, no one watches the playoffs since the Canes are not participating. And we want a Major League Baseball team in North Carolina? We don’t support the Bobcats, only support the Canes & Panthers when they’re winning, but we want a team in the state that has 81 home games a year? Just stick to college athletics and NASCAR.
Finally, the NFL Draft is coming up this weekend. Straight up, the Panthers should pick Patrick Willis, the linebacker from Ole Miss if he’s available at the fourteenth pick. They shouldn’t even use the entirely-too-long fifteen minute time block that’s allotted to them to make that selection. However, if he’s gone (which he should be), then we have a problem on our hands. I’m not a huge fan of picking a safety there if his name is not LaRon Landry, but I guess I could deal with Reggie Nelson. No other linebacker is supposed to be selected that high, with that Timmons guy from FSU as the only viable candidate. A WR is a possibility, as the draft has lots of those. Personally, if Willis is gone, I’m hoping Jamal Anderson, the defensive end from Arkansas, slides to the Panthers. Mike Rucker is a great human being, but not a healthy football player. I really think a decent safety can be had later in the draft while an elite pass rusher should be taken as early as possible. All I know is if I read one more mock draft that has the Panthers taking Greg Olsen at tight end in the first round, I’m going to flip out. I could be wrong, but it just doesn’t make sense that the team would waste its first rounder selection on the position it values the least. Yes, I’d love to have a great threat at tight end, but John Fox, Marty Hurney, et al do not value that spot. Last time I checked, they’re still in charge. My guess is we end up with Ted Ginn Jr. or a defensive end.
On to the more-localized portion of our show. Brandan Wright declared for the NBA Draft and Tar Heel fans everywhere shed a small tear. Ok, that’s an exaggeration, but the tantalizing thought of, “my, what could have been” is now in the past. Truthfully, any knowledgeable fan would agree that Wright made the correct decision. Yes, college is great, and yes, life is so much fan…but $3.5 million guaranteed dollars is still $3.5 million guaranteed dollars. Hel-lo. There is little tangible gain in staying. Of course winning an NCAA Championship is awesome and no feeling or amount of money can replace that, but it is not guaranteed. The last time I checked, the $3.5 million dollars are guaranteed. End of discussion.
So what does that mean for next year? Not a lot really. Carolina will still be top five pre-season and will more than likely finish in the top five at the end of the regular season. As a regular reader would know (can you be a regular reader of someone’s blog who writes on an irregular basis?), I am madly in love with Deon Thompson’s game. His offensive moves are solid and he has the chance to be an All-ACC player in his college career. More PT for Big D is a good thing. Alex Stepheson will also benefit. Not much was made of Stepheson’s season in 2006-2007, but he should be a more-than-adequate sub off the bench for Roy’s Boys. I am quietly optimistic that his shot-blocking skills will prove solid enough to make a difference for the team’s defense, as lack of a shot-blocking presence has been an Achilles heal for the Heels in recent years.
In truth, the success of next season will depend greatly on the success of this off-season. How much improvement will the freshmen make? Can Danny Green step into the roll of a consistent offensive threat at the 3-spot, whether he starts or not? Vitally important is the re-development of Bobby Frasor after last season became a lost cause due to injury. There is no real backup to Wayne Ellington at the 2-guard spot (assuming Ginyard is a 3) and Frasor has also proven to be a steady point guard when healthy. Also, Mike Copeland will be called on for spot minutes next season. I am afraid of Deon Thompson trying to guard the 4-spot, so foul trouble could become a regular issue, forcing Copeland into more minutes. I can really see Copeland becoming the Wes Miller of next year’s team. No, not a short white guy who shoots threes, but a high-energy, scrappy player who the fans and especially the students can rally behind. Ultimately, the Tar Heels will be fine next season. I’m not sure a national championship is on the horizon, but a solid year and hopefully an ACC title to boot.
Quick thoughts, then I’m out. Sebastian Telfair is immature and selfish. He’s at a crossroads, much like Pacman Jones: either be a man and grow up or keep acting like a thug and remain immature. One will lead to a great NBA comeback story, the other to the NBDL and eventually cleaning toilets.
TNT’s studio show consisting of Ernie Johnson, Magic Johnson, Charles Barkley, & Kenny “The Jet” Smith (Tar Heel) is the best on television. I LOL-ed last night listening to a rant about Brokeback Mountain, the halftime show in Dallas, and Charles & Kenny’s quality time the previous evening. I’m not sure how they got away with it, but it was hilarious. Just like I said last season, it’s must-see TV.
The Braves are winning with smoke and mirrors. There will come a time this season that the starting pitching will be beaten up and broken down, and the bats will become silent in unison. As the boys and I have contended for three seasons now, this team’s reliance on the long ball looks good when it’s working, but can go into hibernation for extended periods of time. Please give us improved team speed and the ability to play some small ball when needed. Please.
I too am addicted to the possibilities of the upcoming NBA Draft. I will give my arm to have Kevin Durant on the Bobcats. More on that soon. Long drives on Fridays somehow lead to me talking to God in the car about the Bobcats.
Billy Gillispie is the right guy at Kentucky. I wanted State to hire him last year (and by wanted, I mean hoped they would not, because he’s good) and thought Kentucky should make a push for him after Donovan. In fact, I felt from the outset that if Donovan turned them down, he was the next best candidate. Sometimes a resume can be outweighed by potential and being a good fit. This is one of those cases.
Spoiler Alert for Bachelor watchers: Dear Andy the Midshipmen – please pick Amber.
Spoiler Alert for 24 watchers: Jack Bauer, please stop taking projects on your own. And quit producing a show that has stupid plot items that involve ridiculous inner-office politics.
I’m out. If sexy never left, then why’s everybody on my s-…
Monday, April 16, 2007
Virginia Tech Tragedy
Dear God:
Lord, you are good. Period. You created us, gave us life, and take away life. More importantly, you also gave us eternal life through your Son, Jesus. For some reason, you chose to grant me the free will to choose you in return. I trust you, Lord, with my life, with this earth, and with the afterlife.
But God, I have some questions following the past month or so. Jason Ray died. Pam Barrow died. Christie Smith is in critcal condition. And today, at least thirty three people were killed in the town I live, Blacksburg, VA, at Virginia Tech. And I don't know why. But God, that's not my question. The "why?" aspect of all these things is far above my grasp. You know, clearly, why each of these things has happened. I don't really need to know why they happened. Besides, there's always the chance I might not like the answer.
But I do want to know, "why not?" As in, "God, why them and not me?" I think that's a natural, albeit morbid, question. I mean, why has J-Ray got to be the first BOFFO member to go to heaven? Why does Christie's incredible heart for God have to be slowed by a horse riding accident? Why does my friend Jessica have to lose her mom so soon after losing her Dad?
And God, you haven't told me the answers to these questions yet. Don't get me wrong, I'm not looking to check out on earth yet. I think there's still some good I can do here. Certainly, I want to glorify you with as much of my life as I can while I'm in this life. But it still makes me wonder why it was a specific person, how do you choose?
God, I don't expect an answer to this question either. I think the ultimate answer is that each bit of sadness on this earth helps create heaven. Without our sadness on earth, there would be no reason to have heaven, where all glory is your's. Obviously there is so much pain and sadness here, in our lives. I just ask that you give each of us the strength to get through it all, and provide us the discernment to know and understand your will and your power over all things.
Love,
KPW
Ok, some thoughts on Virginia Tech. Since I am not a student at Tech, I was not really in danger, nor directly effected (at least thus far) by the shootings today. I do not know a ton of students, but the ones I do are safe. However, to say that today did not effect me in some way would trivialize the events. The best description is surreal. It is really hard to relate what I watched unfold on my office's television and outside our windows as being reality. People really died. And it happened in Blacksburg, VA. The eerieness of the town is...well, eerie. Today will define the college experience for many students at Tech, and the lives of many people in the New River Valley.
Next, it is important, at least in my mind, to try to grasp the magnitude of the events in a historical context. As I have discussed with multiple people, today will be in history books that our children read. The shooter's name, once released, will be infamous. Virginia Tech will be mentioned in the same breath as Columbine, Kent State, University of Texas, Oklahoma City, Olympic Park bombings, and of course, 9/11. Re-read that sentence and let it sink in for a minute. I had to read it aloud.
Also, I tried to put myself in the position of someone in a classroom. Growing up, I often thought about being a hero of sorts in a hostage situation or some other crisis. Ok, that's probably from playing with too many G.I. Joes (I still have over 200 mind you). But, the point is I wanted to put myself in the situation to figure out how I'd react. Ideally, I'd be rushing the gunman, throwing a desk, throwing a chair, and probably getting shot in the process. Certainly helping others and putting myself at risk. But is that what I would actually have done? If you're not close enough to jump the gunman, what do you do?
The news conferences and questions have been a little rough. Hindsight is 20/20. I'm sure that not everything possible was done to prevent this incident, but there is no precedent. No one can be blamed, so quit trying to find someone (ahem, journalists). Just be patient and wait until everything is straightened out. Your grilling of the people involved is not helping the crisis, so back off.
Please continue to pray for Virginia Tech, its students and staff, Blacksburg, and our society. Also, THANK YOU to everyone who called, emailed, Facebook-ed, text messaged, or just spoke to me today. Yes, I am ok, but just to know that such a high number of people would think to inquire and care is amazing. Not really just concern for me, but mainly for how people were doing up here. Some of you I had not spoken with in years and you still got in touch. It means a lot that you care about VT and our community.
I am confident that God is doing great things through this horrible tragedy. He will be glorified somehow, and already has been. Please pray also that His love will pour out on this campus and people will come to Him for eternal love and support. Remember, when everything else is falling apart, God is steadfast in His love for each of us.
Lord, you are good. Period. You created us, gave us life, and take away life. More importantly, you also gave us eternal life through your Son, Jesus. For some reason, you chose to grant me the free will to choose you in return. I trust you, Lord, with my life, with this earth, and with the afterlife.
But God, I have some questions following the past month or so. Jason Ray died. Pam Barrow died. Christie Smith is in critcal condition. And today, at least thirty three people were killed in the town I live, Blacksburg, VA, at Virginia Tech. And I don't know why. But God, that's not my question. The "why?" aspect of all these things is far above my grasp. You know, clearly, why each of these things has happened. I don't really need to know why they happened. Besides, there's always the chance I might not like the answer.
But I do want to know, "why not?" As in, "God, why them and not me?" I think that's a natural, albeit morbid, question. I mean, why has J-Ray got to be the first BOFFO member to go to heaven? Why does Christie's incredible heart for God have to be slowed by a horse riding accident? Why does my friend Jessica have to lose her mom so soon after losing her Dad?
And God, you haven't told me the answers to these questions yet. Don't get me wrong, I'm not looking to check out on earth yet. I think there's still some good I can do here. Certainly, I want to glorify you with as much of my life as I can while I'm in this life. But it still makes me wonder why it was a specific person, how do you choose?
God, I don't expect an answer to this question either. I think the ultimate answer is that each bit of sadness on this earth helps create heaven. Without our sadness on earth, there would be no reason to have heaven, where all glory is your's. Obviously there is so much pain and sadness here, in our lives. I just ask that you give each of us the strength to get through it all, and provide us the discernment to know and understand your will and your power over all things.
Love,
KPW
Ok, some thoughts on Virginia Tech. Since I am not a student at Tech, I was not really in danger, nor directly effected (at least thus far) by the shootings today. I do not know a ton of students, but the ones I do are safe. However, to say that today did not effect me in some way would trivialize the events. The best description is surreal. It is really hard to relate what I watched unfold on my office's television and outside our windows as being reality. People really died. And it happened in Blacksburg, VA. The eerieness of the town is...well, eerie. Today will define the college experience for many students at Tech, and the lives of many people in the New River Valley.
Next, it is important, at least in my mind, to try to grasp the magnitude of the events in a historical context. As I have discussed with multiple people, today will be in history books that our children read. The shooter's name, once released, will be infamous. Virginia Tech will be mentioned in the same breath as Columbine, Kent State, University of Texas, Oklahoma City, Olympic Park bombings, and of course, 9/11. Re-read that sentence and let it sink in for a minute. I had to read it aloud.
Also, I tried to put myself in the position of someone in a classroom. Growing up, I often thought about being a hero of sorts in a hostage situation or some other crisis. Ok, that's probably from playing with too many G.I. Joes (I still have over 200 mind you). But, the point is I wanted to put myself in the situation to figure out how I'd react. Ideally, I'd be rushing the gunman, throwing a desk, throwing a chair, and probably getting shot in the process. Certainly helping others and putting myself at risk. But is that what I would actually have done? If you're not close enough to jump the gunman, what do you do?
The news conferences and questions have been a little rough. Hindsight is 20/20. I'm sure that not everything possible was done to prevent this incident, but there is no precedent. No one can be blamed, so quit trying to find someone (ahem, journalists). Just be patient and wait until everything is straightened out. Your grilling of the people involved is not helping the crisis, so back off.
Please continue to pray for Virginia Tech, its students and staff, Blacksburg, and our society. Also, THANK YOU to everyone who called, emailed, Facebook-ed, text messaged, or just spoke to me today. Yes, I am ok, but just to know that such a high number of people would think to inquire and care is amazing. Not really just concern for me, but mainly for how people were doing up here. Some of you I had not spoken with in years and you still got in touch. It means a lot that you care about VT and our community.
I am confident that God is doing great things through this horrible tragedy. He will be glorified somehow, and already has been. Please pray also that His love will pour out on this campus and people will come to Him for eternal love and support. Remember, when everything else is falling apart, God is steadfast in His love for each of us.
Monday, March 26, 2007
When Basketball Does Not Matter: Part 2
A tragic update to the below blog entry: Jason Ray, 21, passed away today. A sad situation is now officially tragic. JRay, we love you man. Your spirit will truly live on in the hearts and lives of everyone you touched during your time on this earth. We know you are in heaven now, perfect and praising Jesus. Thank you, Lord, for giving us time with Jason on this earth. We look forward to being reunited with him for eternity thanks to the sacrifice of your Son.
Boffo is defined as, "extremely successful; great." You certainly fit that definition. Much love Jason Ray, we miss you.
Boffo is defined as, "extremely successful; great." You certainly fit that definition. Much love Jason Ray, we miss you.
Sunday, March 25, 2007
When Basketball Doesn't Matter
There are times in life when you find yourself so absorbed by yourself that nothing else registers in your mind. What I mean is that it is our nature as humans (also known as our sin) to become completely engrossed in Me: what I think, what I want, when I want it, Me. This state of mind comes to different individuals in varying ways. For me, it frequently arises as sports. I become completely and totally engrossed in a particular game or team, blocking out everything else. Two years ago, as Carolina was beginning to make a run at a national championship, I was able to let it all go. The season was not in my control, it was not in our players' control; it was in God's control. This season became much the same the past few weeks. I have watched, cheered, strategized, hoped, and prayed, as I always do, but with a clearer sense that life is much bigger than this particular basketball season. At least I thought I understood that.
Second half. East Regional Semi-Finals. Southern California is kicking my Tar Heel butt. And I really must have thought I was playing. I hollered. I yelled. I screamed at one point. Frustrated and frankly pissed off, I was very close to giving up hope. Translation: I was not just letting it go and turning it over to God. Then Jim Nantz brought the game back from a commercial and basketball ceased to matter.
To summarize, Nantz announced a statement from the University of North Carolina Director of Athletics, Dick Baddour. Jason Ray, a senior from Concord, NC, had been injured in a pedestrian/vehicle accident prior to that evening's game. Ray, who portrays the Ramses mascot, was hit by a car exiting the freeway in New Jersey and was in critical condition at an area hospital. Shocked, I paused the DVR and began to pray. Basketball suddenly did not matter one bit.
JRay is one-of-a-kind. Don't get me wrong, we are not best friends. But, we are definitely friends. He's a guy in my life that I would move through a crowd to say hello to, have a solid conversation, and sincerely mean it when I finished with, "it's good seeing you buddy." Because it's always good to see Jason. He is enthusiastic, passionate, hilarious, and really genuine.
Jason & I share a bond between men. We were in an InterVarsity Bible Study in Morrison Dorm my junior year at Carolina; Jason was a freshmen. BOFFO, as this group became known, was a group of around twenty guys or so who had Jesus in common. We met every week for what was supposed to be an hour and a half or so. Frequently, our fun Tuesday nights would instead last for at least three hours. We cut up, we talked about God, we talked about our lives, and we listened to each other. JRay brought humor and he brought enthusiasm. But, he also brought honesty and a willingness to share. It was rare for a freshman in a group setting be so frank and comfortable talking about stuff. He shared great stories and motivated others to do the same. This group was BOFFO because it was so tight-knit. We were a group of guys from varying backgrounds, of different age, and unique interests. But man, we were close. Green t-shirts, orange letters. BOFFO.
Over the three plus years since our year together, the BOFFO guys have grown up a great deal. That large freshmen class Jason is a part of are now seniors. A number of the rest of us have graduated. We no longer all see each other every day, every week, or even every year. But since my graduation, JRay is someone I have constantly run into. I go to a lot of Tar Heel sporting events, and clearly, so does Ramses. We talked for about an hour last year prior to a home basketball game while killing time. About my job, his classes, girlfriends, life in general, and nothing at all. It was a fun time, just two dudes hanging out and being honest with one another because that's all we know how to be together.
The last time I saw Jason was just last weekend, in Winston-Salem, at the 1st/2nd Round NCAA Tournament games. I only saw him out of costume for a few minutes, but he was in good spirits, of course. My friends and I watched as Ramses directed the Carolina band, pumped up the crowd, and generally acted a fool. But what an enthusiastic, happy fool he was.
As of right now, JRay is still in the hospital. I do not know his exact condition other than what I have been told. His family and closest friends are by his side, providing prayer and support. It does not look good, but things like this never look good. Here's what I do know. Jason Ray is truly an awesome guy, a man who loves God and his friends. He loves life, period. There is no doubt in my mind where his heart is and that he serves God. But his life is not in our control. It is completely up to God as to whether Jason joins Him in heaven now, or later.
I also know this. I always think of JRay with a smile. Everytime I hear a Rage Against the Machine song, I think of him freestyling Rage in our BOFFO group. When I think of my time in college, I think a lot about that BOFFO group and the fun we had, the jokes we still have, the tears we shed, and the close bond of the guys. There are a lot of people that you do not comprehend their impact on your life until something happens. Jason is not one of those people. You are very aware of him and how special he is while you interact with him. To be able to call him a genuine friend is an honor.
There are many others, some who may be reading this, who are much closer to Jason. You are even more blessed than I. You are thinking of inside jokes, funny stories, deep conversations, tears, laughter, and other special times than involve Jason. Treasure those memories.
You see, basketball does not matter. Life matters. Friends matter. Serving Christ and eventually enjoying eternity with Him matters. Yes, Carolina lost tonight to Georgetown to end the season. Choked away the game, quite frankly. Was it fun? Nope. Did it feel good? Not at all. But does it really matter?
I'll write about the NCAA Tournament at some point this week. Analyze the Tar Heels and the upcoming Final Four. Reflect on the season that has been and look ahead to next year. But I'll do it with a heavy heart and a prayerful soul. Please keep Jason Ray, his family, and his friends in your prayers. In BOFFO, we had a verse that we lived by and had embroidered on the back of our t-shirts: Proverbs 27:17. "As iron sharpens iron, so one man sharpens another." It basically means for all men to lift up one another through prayer and your daily walk with God. JRay, that's what we're doing right now. From one BOFFO guy to another, keep fightin'. Know that we love you and are lifting you up always.
Basketball just doesn't matter. Life matters. People matter. And Jason Ray, you matter.
Second half. East Regional Semi-Finals. Southern California is kicking my Tar Heel butt. And I really must have thought I was playing. I hollered. I yelled. I screamed at one point. Frustrated and frankly pissed off, I was very close to giving up hope. Translation: I was not just letting it go and turning it over to God. Then Jim Nantz brought the game back from a commercial and basketball ceased to matter.
To summarize, Nantz announced a statement from the University of North Carolina Director of Athletics, Dick Baddour. Jason Ray, a senior from Concord, NC, had been injured in a pedestrian/vehicle accident prior to that evening's game. Ray, who portrays the Ramses mascot, was hit by a car exiting the freeway in New Jersey and was in critical condition at an area hospital. Shocked, I paused the DVR and began to pray. Basketball suddenly did not matter one bit.
JRay is one-of-a-kind. Don't get me wrong, we are not best friends. But, we are definitely friends. He's a guy in my life that I would move through a crowd to say hello to, have a solid conversation, and sincerely mean it when I finished with, "it's good seeing you buddy." Because it's always good to see Jason. He is enthusiastic, passionate, hilarious, and really genuine.
Jason & I share a bond between men. We were in an InterVarsity Bible Study in Morrison Dorm my junior year at Carolina; Jason was a freshmen. BOFFO, as this group became known, was a group of around twenty guys or so who had Jesus in common. We met every week for what was supposed to be an hour and a half or so. Frequently, our fun Tuesday nights would instead last for at least three hours. We cut up, we talked about God, we talked about our lives, and we listened to each other. JRay brought humor and he brought enthusiasm. But, he also brought honesty and a willingness to share. It was rare for a freshman in a group setting be so frank and comfortable talking about stuff. He shared great stories and motivated others to do the same. This group was BOFFO because it was so tight-knit. We were a group of guys from varying backgrounds, of different age, and unique interests. But man, we were close. Green t-shirts, orange letters. BOFFO.
Over the three plus years since our year together, the BOFFO guys have grown up a great deal. That large freshmen class Jason is a part of are now seniors. A number of the rest of us have graduated. We no longer all see each other every day, every week, or even every year. But since my graduation, JRay is someone I have constantly run into. I go to a lot of Tar Heel sporting events, and clearly, so does Ramses. We talked for about an hour last year prior to a home basketball game while killing time. About my job, his classes, girlfriends, life in general, and nothing at all. It was a fun time, just two dudes hanging out and being honest with one another because that's all we know how to be together.
The last time I saw Jason was just last weekend, in Winston-Salem, at the 1st/2nd Round NCAA Tournament games. I only saw him out of costume for a few minutes, but he was in good spirits, of course. My friends and I watched as Ramses directed the Carolina band, pumped up the crowd, and generally acted a fool. But what an enthusiastic, happy fool he was.
As of right now, JRay is still in the hospital. I do not know his exact condition other than what I have been told. His family and closest friends are by his side, providing prayer and support. It does not look good, but things like this never look good. Here's what I do know. Jason Ray is truly an awesome guy, a man who loves God and his friends. He loves life, period. There is no doubt in my mind where his heart is and that he serves God. But his life is not in our control. It is completely up to God as to whether Jason joins Him in heaven now, or later.
I also know this. I always think of JRay with a smile. Everytime I hear a Rage Against the Machine song, I think of him freestyling Rage in our BOFFO group. When I think of my time in college, I think a lot about that BOFFO group and the fun we had, the jokes we still have, the tears we shed, and the close bond of the guys. There are a lot of people that you do not comprehend their impact on your life until something happens. Jason is not one of those people. You are very aware of him and how special he is while you interact with him. To be able to call him a genuine friend is an honor.
There are many others, some who may be reading this, who are much closer to Jason. You are even more blessed than I. You are thinking of inside jokes, funny stories, deep conversations, tears, laughter, and other special times than involve Jason. Treasure those memories.
You see, basketball does not matter. Life matters. Friends matter. Serving Christ and eventually enjoying eternity with Him matters. Yes, Carolina lost tonight to Georgetown to end the season. Choked away the game, quite frankly. Was it fun? Nope. Did it feel good? Not at all. But does it really matter?
I'll write about the NCAA Tournament at some point this week. Analyze the Tar Heels and the upcoming Final Four. Reflect on the season that has been and look ahead to next year. But I'll do it with a heavy heart and a prayerful soul. Please keep Jason Ray, his family, and his friends in your prayers. In BOFFO, we had a verse that we lived by and had embroidered on the back of our t-shirts: Proverbs 27:17. "As iron sharpens iron, so one man sharpens another." It basically means for all men to lift up one another through prayer and your daily walk with God. JRay, that's what we're doing right now. From one BOFFO guy to another, keep fightin'. Know that we love you and are lifting you up always.
Basketball just doesn't matter. Life matters. People matter. And Jason Ray, you matter.
Saturday, March 10, 2007
Bracket Projection
As of 11:10pm on Saturday night...
Last five in: Texas Tech, Stanford, Purdue, Illinois, Florida St.
Last five out: Kansas St, Drexel, Old Dominion, West Virginia, Air Force
I am least convinced of Illinois & Florida St, as seen by their slots as 64 & 65. Illinois has not impressed me all year, and I've seen them numerous times. FSU has convinced me, but I doubt they will convince the committee. Clearly, my ACC alliance plays a role, but I think FSU is a quality team. I have seen a number of other bubble teams in person this year and think FSU is better than all of them.
I heard Lunardi on ESPN saying that Stanford was out. I disagree completely. They lost to a good USC team in the quarterfinals on Thursday in the Pac-10 tournament, which apparently dropped them from a 9-seed last week to out of the tournament this week. No way. In my opinion, if Stanford misses this year's field, they will have as good or better an argument than Cincinnati had last year.
As far as number one seeds go, I'm all in for Ohio St, UCLA, and Florida. I'm waiting on Carolina or Kansas. The Heels have the better resume as far as RPI, etc, but Kansas has been so hot recently that the human element tells me they deserve a number one seed. I am obviously on UCLA's side, despite their consecutive losses to close the season. How does a team go from number one overall seed to a number two seed with one upset loss? Maybe the margin of error this year is just that tight, but I'm not buying that either. Who would have thought I'd ever come off as a Pac-10 apologist.
Finally, pay close attention to NC State and Arkansas on Sunday. If either wins, that takes a bid away from one of the above bubble candidates. If both were to win, it would practically be a bubble team killing spree this week, with up to five bids stolen. Both teams have a solid chance, but I'm not betting against Florida...and I'm stopping short of jinxing the Tar Heels. You think I'm crazy?
Alright, hopefully one more posting tomorrow pre-brackets. I'll be out of town Mon-Wed, so if I make a pre-tournament posting, it will probably be on Thursday morning. Either way, set your clocks forward an hour (thanks Brilla), and enjoy a happy ultimate holiday: 311 Day & Bracket Day.
"You're a transistor, lightning resistor, connected to the mother star, yeah that's what you are..."
Last five in: Texas Tech, Stanford, Purdue, Illinois, Florida St.
Last five out: Kansas St, Drexel, Old Dominion, West Virginia, Air Force
I am least convinced of Illinois & Florida St, as seen by their slots as 64 & 65. Illinois has not impressed me all year, and I've seen them numerous times. FSU has convinced me, but I doubt they will convince the committee. Clearly, my ACC alliance plays a role, but I think FSU is a quality team. I have seen a number of other bubble teams in person this year and think FSU is better than all of them.
I heard Lunardi on ESPN saying that Stanford was out. I disagree completely. They lost to a good USC team in the quarterfinals on Thursday in the Pac-10 tournament, which apparently dropped them from a 9-seed last week to out of the tournament this week. No way. In my opinion, if Stanford misses this year's field, they will have as good or better an argument than Cincinnati had last year.
As far as number one seeds go, I'm all in for Ohio St, UCLA, and Florida. I'm waiting on Carolina or Kansas. The Heels have the better resume as far as RPI, etc, but Kansas has been so hot recently that the human element tells me they deserve a number one seed. I am obviously on UCLA's side, despite their consecutive losses to close the season. How does a team go from number one overall seed to a number two seed with one upset loss? Maybe the margin of error this year is just that tight, but I'm not buying that either. Who would have thought I'd ever come off as a Pac-10 apologist.
Finally, pay close attention to NC State and Arkansas on Sunday. If either wins, that takes a bid away from one of the above bubble candidates. If both were to win, it would practically be a bubble team killing spree this week, with up to five bids stolen. Both teams have a solid chance, but I'm not betting against Florida...and I'm stopping short of jinxing the Tar Heels. You think I'm crazy?
Alright, hopefully one more posting tomorrow pre-brackets. I'll be out of town Mon-Wed, so if I make a pre-tournament posting, it will probably be on Thursday morning. Either way, set your clocks forward an hour (thanks Brilla), and enjoy a happy ultimate holiday: 311 Day & Bracket Day.
"You're a transistor, lightning resistor, connected to the mother star, yeah that's what you are..."
Thursday, March 01, 2007
NCAA Madness
Let’s cover a few college basketball related items before we get into discussing the NCAA Tournament (editor’s note: most of this blog was typed Sunday night, then somehow put off until Thursday morning for posting. What can I say, I suck at life).
First, the National Player of the Year debate will heat up soon. I’m here to say that Kevin Durant should win it, period. Without Durant, Texas is fighting to be included in the Big Dance. With him, they’re a 3-5 seed, competing with Kansas to win the Big 12 regular season title, while starting four freshmen and a sophomore. Alando Tucker of Wisconsin is a lovely player, a senior who’s stuck around (more because he’s a 6-5 small forward than he loves college that much) and is leading the Badgers to a memorable season. But, he’s not the best player in the country. Neither are Tyler Hansbrough, Aaron Brooks, anyone on Florida, nor Greg Oden (please, he shouldn’t be in the discussion). The only player I could see an argument for is Acie Law IV of Texas A&M. He’s the definition of clutch, leading the Aggies to their best season ever. Need proof? Find a tape of last night’s epic battle with the above-mentioned Longhorns of Texas, where Law IV made two tying three-pointers to extend the game. Better yet, according to Tom Brennan of ESPN, Law IV is outscoring the opposition in the last four minutes of games by himself. Read that again. Sunk in yet? For a term that is thrown around far too often, that is truly a clutch player right there. But, I’m still giving the nod to Durant. You’ve probably heard enough about him by now, so I’ll save all the statistics to back it up. If you want to argue though, just look at his numbers and call me later.
Second, the ACC Player of the Year picture is a little cloudier. Jared Dudley looked like a runaway winner until last week. I’m not certain that Dudley can win the award now, with the recent slide for BC combined with the general bias of the voters on Tobacco Road. However, only Tyler Hansbrough and Josh McRoberts are candidates in that area, and McRoberts is a big stretch. Al Thornton is probably the best player in the league, but he’s buried on a nearly-dead Florida St team. That leaves us with the UVA guards, Singletary and Reynolds, and Virginia Tech guard Zabian Dowdell. Personally, I feel the UVA guards will cancel out votes. Neither is more important or consistently better than the other. That leaves us with Dowdell. Obviously, I am quite biased since I work at Virginia Tech and watch him every night. That being said, I would vote for Dowdell. He is completely vital to Virginia Tech’s success. If the Hokies end up tying for or winning outright the ACC Regular Season championship, then he has to at least be considered. At this point, I say it’s a three player race between Dowdell, Dudley, and Hansbrough.
Third, the Tar Heels. I should caution you, the reader, that I’m typing this incredibly rare blog entry within two hours of the loss at Maryland. So yes, I’m ramming my head into a wall right now. But, far prior to this evening, I’ve come to a conclusion on this team. Think back to 1986, 1995, or 1997 for a reference point, because those are the comparable teams to this one. The ’86 team was very, very good and more experienced than this team, but just didn’t have the killer instinct. The 1995 team was extremely talented, but lacked a vocal leader and defensive stopper. The 1997 team was shaky for half the season, but got hot and road a winning streak into a tie for the ACC Regular Season title, won the ACC Tournament, and flamed out in the Final Four with poor shooting and the inability to maintain a lead. What’s the comparison? All of these teams lacked the ability to successfully go for the kill.
I came to my conclusion during the loss earlier this season at NC State, a less-talented opponent rolling on emotion. Carolina failed to get a big stop, took bad shots, and let State hang in the game. The same thing happened against Virginia Tech at home and again Sunday night against Maryland (minus the bad shots). To me, that reveals two related problems. First, there are times this team does not understand how desperate an opponent is playing. My biggest concern entering the season was that come March, this team would not understand the intensity it takes and the desperation it takes to win. Lose, your season is over. This comes largely from leaders on the team communicating this fact to freshmen who have never experienced it. Obviously this problem still exists (leadership has been shaky, no matter what people have said).
Second, the Tar Heels have an inability to shoot someone execution style. Viewers of any television drama involving Jack Bauer know how many times he has been on the brink of death, but escaped. How many would-be killers are going to put him on his knees, hold a gun to his head, and launch into a five minute monologue about the past, what they did, why they did it, only to see Jack escape and kill them? That is exactly what this team has done this season in its three most-recent losses. The bad guy was down, you are ready to kill him, and you somehow blow it. Carolina doesn’t go for the kill nearly enough and succeed. Yes, it was done at Boston College. Yes, the foot never came off the gas at Clemson. And yes, this team won at Duke in a tough environment. But it has not been consistent and I do not think it will suddenly become a collective assassin in the NCAA Tournament. Can they? Certainly. Will they? Don’t get your hopes up. I’m certainly not.
Ok, on to the real discussion of the upcoming Selection Sunday festivities. For the first time in a while (I’m too lazy to see how long “a while” is), Selection Sunday is the same day as 311 Day. I will celebrate by listening to 311 all day long while watching basketball and editing my bracket. While I’d love to have to pause my CD player during the ACC Tournament final (pending a Carolina appearance), I doubt that will be an issue (see above paragraphs). I will be ending celebrations a bit early that evening because I fly out the following Monday to beautiful Pittsburgh (sarcasm, sarcasm) for a three day sales training academy. Surely I will not be looking at brackets on this trip, right?
Entering the season of brackets, three main topics come up: who are the real contenders for the Final Four/National Title, who are the sleeper teams, and who is on the bubble. In reverse order:
Bubble: Currently, I have 47 tournament bids in “lock” status. This includes the 31 automatic bids that go to league champions, plus 16 at-large bids. Here are those teams:
Automatic Bids (current conference leaders) –
America East
Vermont
A-10
Xavier
ACC
Carolina
Atlantic Sun
ETSU
Big East
Pittsburgh
Big 12
Kansas
Big Sky
Weber St
Big South
Winthrop
Big Ten
Ohio State
Big West
Long Beach St
CAA
Virginia Commonwealth
C-USA
Memphis
Horizon
Wright St
Ivy
Penn
MAAC
Marist
Mid-Con
Oral Roberts
Mid-American
Toledo
MEAC
Delaware St
Missouri Valley
Southern Illinois
Mountain West
BYU
NEC
Cen Conn State
Ohio Valley
Austin Peay
Pac-10
UCLA
Patriot
Holy Cross
SEC
Florida
Southern
Davidson
Southland
A&M C-C
SWAC
Jackson St
Sun Belt
South Alabama
West Coast
Santa Clara
WAC
Nevada
The sixteen at-large spots that are, in my opinion, locks:
Duke
Carolina
UVA
Boston College
Georgetown
Marquette
Wisconsin
Texas A&M
Texas
Washington St
Oregon
Southern Cal
Kentucky
Butler
Air Force
UNLV
That leaves 18 at-large spots to be decided. Of these 18 spots, nine teams started out the week on my bubble, but are currently solidly “in” the tournament. These 9 teams would have to do something drastically bad to not make the Big Dance. They are:
Maryland
Louisville
Notre Dame
Michigan St
Creighton
Stanford
Arizona
Vanderbilt
Tennessee
Obviously, Maryland should move up a category following the wins over Carolina & Duke. Louisville & Vanderbilt move up as well. That leaves us with another nine spots to be decided right now. As of Monday morning, February 26th, the final nine spots go to (in no particular order)…
Georgia Tech
Villanova
Syracuse
Illinois
Texas Tech
Old Dominion
App State
Gonzaga
Alabama
…with the last teams out being:
Kansas State
Purdue
Clemson
Missouri St
Providence
Oklahoma St
Georgia
San Diego St
Keep in mind, these bids are based a full allotment being available. What I mean is there are always a few at-large spots that are essentially stolen when a team that would get in no matter what loses in its conference tournament. For example, if Butler were to lose in the Horizon conference tournament, they would require one of the at-large bids for tournament entry. Obviously, Butler is clearly a tournament team, so their inclusion would bump someone off the bubble into the NIT. This season, by my count, there are an astonishing eight such instances to keep an eye on:
Atlantic 10 – Xavier (only viable at-large candidate, bubble team at best right now)
Big South – Winthrop (bubble team right now, should make it no matter what)
CAA – Virginia Commonwealth (Old Dominion and Drexel are both knocking on the door)
Conference USA – Memphis (definitely only at-large candidate)
Horizon – Butler (currently lead by Wright St)
Southern – Davidson (App State could potentially get an at-large as well)
West Coast – Gonzaga (currently lead by Santa Clara; Gonzaga is barely in right now anyway)
WAC – Nevada (Utah St and New Mexico St are sneaking into the discussion)
Of these teams, Butler, Nevada, Memphis, Winthrop, and Gonzaga would currently be in the field even if they lost in their conference tournaments. I don’t think Gonzaga can afford a loss personally, but the other four teams should dance in my opinion. Right now, Old Dominion would also sneak in from the CAA; strangely, I’m not sure league-leading VCU would get an at-large. Of course, any major conference could have a bid stolen if a team who would not have gotten an at-large berth makes a magical run. I have a strange feeling that this may happen this year, as a number of talented teams have underachieved in multi-bid leagues. The following teams have enough talent to get hot and win their conference tournaments, but would not make the tournament otherwise: Florida St, UCONN, Providence (could still get an at-large bid), Iowa, Bradley, Wichita St, Washington & LSU. LSU scares me the most, as the Tigers have played well in a loss at Kentucky and a win versus Florida.
Now, I don’t get too much into numbers and RPI rankings and strength of schedule and all that mess. These brackets are just my opinion, mostly based on watching a lot of basketball, reading a lot about basketball, and common sense. Things will change, and I will try to post regularly my actual tracking chart of teams and conferences.
Sleepers:
Recall that I divide sleepers into two groups: first round/upset sleepers (Bucknell ‘05, Santa Clara ‘93, Weber-friggin-State ‘99, etc) and Final Four sleepers (Syracuse ’96, Arizona ’97, UNC ’00, etc). An “Upset Sleeper” must be a 12-seed or lower to qualify and a Final Four sleeper must be a 5-seed or lower.
Upset Sleepers: Long Beach State, Holy Cross, South Alabama, Xavier (if applicable)
Final Four Sleepers: Maryland, Vanderbilt, Southern Cal, UNLV
I love Long Beach State if they make the dance. Their top seven players are all seniors, they shoot a ton of threes (and shoot them quickly), and mix up their defense enough to overshadow the fact that they really are not that good defensively. This is important, because those switching defenses will be unfamiliar to their potential first-round opponent and it will take multiple possessions to adjust. However, note that they are the type of team who could come out and have a bad shooting night and get blown out as a result. And all of this, again, is only if they make the NCAA Tournament.
Of course, I also have a category called the Five to Thrive. These are five teams I think will succeed in March, regardless of seed. Doesn’t mean they’re Final Four picks, I just have a feeling they will play well in the tournament and are not getting a ton of publicity as such. Two years ago, this list included Michigan St (Final Four team). Last year’s list included LSU (also a Final Four team). And yes, that made me one out of five last year (the others were UNC, KU, Washington, and Ohio St. Ouch).
As a note, my original list, written on the back of a DORNA signage tracking sheet at a Virginia Tech women’s basketball game a month ago, included Georgetown before they started playing really well and getting hyped up. Kansas was on the same list. Both teams are now on fire and are getting hyped up by the media. Just so you know…
Vanderbilt – Spread the floor, everyone can shoot, Derrick Byers is the go-to guy. Kevin Stallings is one of the more underrated coaches in the country in my opinion, and he will have his team ready. A good matchup could see them in the Sweet 16.
Georgetown – They’re staying on my list, even though they’ll get a higher seed than I generally allow for in the Five to Thrive. Again, style of play will be key; if the Hoyas get a bad matchup, things could end early. As it is, I think they’ll be playing in at least the Sweet 16, possibly the Elite Eight, and certainly have the ability to make it to Atlanta (the site of this year’s Final Four).
Texas – no one wants to play the Horns. They are really young and playing hot basketball right now…just like Kansas was last year before they lost in the first round to Bradley and ruined brackets across the country. But, Texas is different because they have Kevin Durant. He is the entire reason alone that Texas is on this list.
UNLV – Mainly because one of the three/four Mountain West Conference teams is going to make a run of some sort, I just don’t know who. BYU is not as talented as UNLV, Air Force is playing poorly right now, and San Diego St is on the outside looking in today. UNLV is athletic, has played a tough schedule, and has a good coach in Lon Kruger.
Virginia Tech – Because I love my job. And because they have an experienced backcourt, a go-to guy in Zabian Dowdell, and can play multiple styles in the tournament. A slowdown game does not favor Tech, but the Hokies have won games in the fifties this season as well. And yes, I was going to say Maryland, but everyone on ESPN is blowing the Terps right now and I refuse to join the party.
Bonus – Xavier. Just a weird feeling. Which is probably my supper from last night, meaning Xavier will miss the tournament all together.
Final Four Contenders???:
I love Kansas. I like UCLA. I am hott for Texas A&M, but Joseph Jones keeps fouling out of games. I love Carolina as a fan, but…truth is, I don’t really know who is a Final Four Contender. Every team has a weakness in my eyes. It might be easier to say who I don’t like:
Ohio State – Greg Oden plays defense, but he is the lone Buckeye who does so on a regular basis. They did do an admirable job against Wisconsin last Sunday, but I am skeptical of their ability to do it for four straight games in the NCAA Tournament.
Wisconsin – Can’t shoot, lost Brian Butch, Kameron Taylor is too streaky. There defense will keep them in games, but they look more like a second-round upset waiting to happen than a viable national title contender.
Memphis – I don’t think anyone has an accurate gauge on Memphis because they haven’t played a really good team in three months. One of these years under Calipari, they’ll make the Final Four. I just don’t think this is the one.
Florida – teams that try to “turn it on” in March frequently lose. I’ll make a decision on the Gators based on how they play in the SEC Tournament next week. When focused, they are obviously very, very good. When distracted, they lose to LSU and Tennessee. Ugh.
Pittsburgh – just have my doubts. In fact, I don’t know of many people who really like this team’s chances. Not that they will be upset in the first round, but they look like a ho-hum Sweet 16 team.
Nevada – they are ranked in the top ten of the polls right now. However, how many voters have seen the Wolfpack play more than three times? And how many of those voters would think I meant the NC State Wolfpack in the previous sentence? That being said, Nevada just doesn’t do it for me. After all, I’ve seen them play at least twice.
There are some other teams that could make some noise: Washington St, USC, Duke, and Southern Illinois. All four have holes, but wouldn’t be a total shock. Quick problem with Duke: the Blue Devils are already playing with “March desperation”, but have still lost some games. When they win, they out-hustle other teams and just want to win more. When they lose, they still do those things, but don’t have enough talent.
Ok, that is finally enough I reckon. If I were picking a Final Four right now, it would include Kansas, UCLA, North Carolina, and Texas A&M, but obviously all of those highly-ranked teams will not make it to Atlanta. Either way, I’m in full March Madness Mode at this point. Enjoy the beginning of Championship Week, the Duke/Carolina game, the ACC Women’s Tournament, and a cold beverage.
“Baby…would you eat that there snap cracker in your special outfit for me please?”
First, the National Player of the Year debate will heat up soon. I’m here to say that Kevin Durant should win it, period. Without Durant, Texas is fighting to be included in the Big Dance. With him, they’re a 3-5 seed, competing with Kansas to win the Big 12 regular season title, while starting four freshmen and a sophomore. Alando Tucker of Wisconsin is a lovely player, a senior who’s stuck around (more because he’s a 6-5 small forward than he loves college that much) and is leading the Badgers to a memorable season. But, he’s not the best player in the country. Neither are Tyler Hansbrough, Aaron Brooks, anyone on Florida, nor Greg Oden (please, he shouldn’t be in the discussion). The only player I could see an argument for is Acie Law IV of Texas A&M. He’s the definition of clutch, leading the Aggies to their best season ever. Need proof? Find a tape of last night’s epic battle with the above-mentioned Longhorns of Texas, where Law IV made two tying three-pointers to extend the game. Better yet, according to Tom Brennan of ESPN, Law IV is outscoring the opposition in the last four minutes of games by himself. Read that again. Sunk in yet? For a term that is thrown around far too often, that is truly a clutch player right there. But, I’m still giving the nod to Durant. You’ve probably heard enough about him by now, so I’ll save all the statistics to back it up. If you want to argue though, just look at his numbers and call me later.
Second, the ACC Player of the Year picture is a little cloudier. Jared Dudley looked like a runaway winner until last week. I’m not certain that Dudley can win the award now, with the recent slide for BC combined with the general bias of the voters on Tobacco Road. However, only Tyler Hansbrough and Josh McRoberts are candidates in that area, and McRoberts is a big stretch. Al Thornton is probably the best player in the league, but he’s buried on a nearly-dead Florida St team. That leaves us with the UVA guards, Singletary and Reynolds, and Virginia Tech guard Zabian Dowdell. Personally, I feel the UVA guards will cancel out votes. Neither is more important or consistently better than the other. That leaves us with Dowdell. Obviously, I am quite biased since I work at Virginia Tech and watch him every night. That being said, I would vote for Dowdell. He is completely vital to Virginia Tech’s success. If the Hokies end up tying for or winning outright the ACC Regular Season championship, then he has to at least be considered. At this point, I say it’s a three player race between Dowdell, Dudley, and Hansbrough.
Third, the Tar Heels. I should caution you, the reader, that I’m typing this incredibly rare blog entry within two hours of the loss at Maryland. So yes, I’m ramming my head into a wall right now. But, far prior to this evening, I’ve come to a conclusion on this team. Think back to 1986, 1995, or 1997 for a reference point, because those are the comparable teams to this one. The ’86 team was very, very good and more experienced than this team, but just didn’t have the killer instinct. The 1995 team was extremely talented, but lacked a vocal leader and defensive stopper. The 1997 team was shaky for half the season, but got hot and road a winning streak into a tie for the ACC Regular Season title, won the ACC Tournament, and flamed out in the Final Four with poor shooting and the inability to maintain a lead. What’s the comparison? All of these teams lacked the ability to successfully go for the kill.
I came to my conclusion during the loss earlier this season at NC State, a less-talented opponent rolling on emotion. Carolina failed to get a big stop, took bad shots, and let State hang in the game. The same thing happened against Virginia Tech at home and again Sunday night against Maryland (minus the bad shots). To me, that reveals two related problems. First, there are times this team does not understand how desperate an opponent is playing. My biggest concern entering the season was that come March, this team would not understand the intensity it takes and the desperation it takes to win. Lose, your season is over. This comes largely from leaders on the team communicating this fact to freshmen who have never experienced it. Obviously this problem still exists (leadership has been shaky, no matter what people have said).
Second, the Tar Heels have an inability to shoot someone execution style. Viewers of any television drama involving Jack Bauer know how many times he has been on the brink of death, but escaped. How many would-be killers are going to put him on his knees, hold a gun to his head, and launch into a five minute monologue about the past, what they did, why they did it, only to see Jack escape and kill them? That is exactly what this team has done this season in its three most-recent losses. The bad guy was down, you are ready to kill him, and you somehow blow it. Carolina doesn’t go for the kill nearly enough and succeed. Yes, it was done at Boston College. Yes, the foot never came off the gas at Clemson. And yes, this team won at Duke in a tough environment. But it has not been consistent and I do not think it will suddenly become a collective assassin in the NCAA Tournament. Can they? Certainly. Will they? Don’t get your hopes up. I’m certainly not.
Ok, on to the real discussion of the upcoming Selection Sunday festivities. For the first time in a while (I’m too lazy to see how long “a while” is), Selection Sunday is the same day as 311 Day. I will celebrate by listening to 311 all day long while watching basketball and editing my bracket. While I’d love to have to pause my CD player during the ACC Tournament final (pending a Carolina appearance), I doubt that will be an issue (see above paragraphs). I will be ending celebrations a bit early that evening because I fly out the following Monday to beautiful Pittsburgh (sarcasm, sarcasm) for a three day sales training academy. Surely I will not be looking at brackets on this trip, right?
Entering the season of brackets, three main topics come up: who are the real contenders for the Final Four/National Title, who are the sleeper teams, and who is on the bubble. In reverse order:
Bubble: Currently, I have 47 tournament bids in “lock” status. This includes the 31 automatic bids that go to league champions, plus 16 at-large bids. Here are those teams:
Automatic Bids (current conference leaders) –
America East
Vermont
A-10
Xavier
ACC
Carolina
Atlantic Sun
ETSU
Big East
Pittsburgh
Big 12
Kansas
Big Sky
Weber St
Big South
Winthrop
Big Ten
Ohio State
Big West
Long Beach St
CAA
Virginia Commonwealth
C-USA
Memphis
Horizon
Wright St
Ivy
Penn
MAAC
Marist
Mid-Con
Oral Roberts
Mid-American
Toledo
MEAC
Delaware St
Missouri Valley
Southern Illinois
Mountain West
BYU
NEC
Cen Conn State
Ohio Valley
Austin Peay
Pac-10
UCLA
Patriot
Holy Cross
SEC
Florida
Southern
Davidson
Southland
A&M C-C
SWAC
Jackson St
Sun Belt
South Alabama
West Coast
Santa Clara
WAC
Nevada
The sixteen at-large spots that are, in my opinion, locks:
Duke
Carolina
UVA
Boston College
Georgetown
Marquette
Wisconsin
Texas A&M
Texas
Washington St
Oregon
Southern Cal
Kentucky
Butler
Air Force
UNLV
That leaves 18 at-large spots to be decided. Of these 18 spots, nine teams started out the week on my bubble, but are currently solidly “in” the tournament. These 9 teams would have to do something drastically bad to not make the Big Dance. They are:
Maryland
Louisville
Notre Dame
Michigan St
Creighton
Stanford
Arizona
Vanderbilt
Tennessee
Obviously, Maryland should move up a category following the wins over Carolina & Duke. Louisville & Vanderbilt move up as well. That leaves us with another nine spots to be decided right now. As of Monday morning, February 26th, the final nine spots go to (in no particular order)…
Georgia Tech
Villanova
Syracuse
Illinois
Texas Tech
Old Dominion
App State
Gonzaga
Alabama
…with the last teams out being:
Kansas State
Purdue
Clemson
Missouri St
Providence
Oklahoma St
Georgia
San Diego St
Keep in mind, these bids are based a full allotment being available. What I mean is there are always a few at-large spots that are essentially stolen when a team that would get in no matter what loses in its conference tournament. For example, if Butler were to lose in the Horizon conference tournament, they would require one of the at-large bids for tournament entry. Obviously, Butler is clearly a tournament team, so their inclusion would bump someone off the bubble into the NIT. This season, by my count, there are an astonishing eight such instances to keep an eye on:
Atlantic 10 – Xavier (only viable at-large candidate, bubble team at best right now)
Big South – Winthrop (bubble team right now, should make it no matter what)
CAA – Virginia Commonwealth (Old Dominion and Drexel are both knocking on the door)
Conference USA – Memphis (definitely only at-large candidate)
Horizon – Butler (currently lead by Wright St)
Southern – Davidson (App State could potentially get an at-large as well)
West Coast – Gonzaga (currently lead by Santa Clara; Gonzaga is barely in right now anyway)
WAC – Nevada (Utah St and New Mexico St are sneaking into the discussion)
Of these teams, Butler, Nevada, Memphis, Winthrop, and Gonzaga would currently be in the field even if they lost in their conference tournaments. I don’t think Gonzaga can afford a loss personally, but the other four teams should dance in my opinion. Right now, Old Dominion would also sneak in from the CAA; strangely, I’m not sure league-leading VCU would get an at-large. Of course, any major conference could have a bid stolen if a team who would not have gotten an at-large berth makes a magical run. I have a strange feeling that this may happen this year, as a number of talented teams have underachieved in multi-bid leagues. The following teams have enough talent to get hot and win their conference tournaments, but would not make the tournament otherwise: Florida St, UCONN, Providence (could still get an at-large bid), Iowa, Bradley, Wichita St, Washington & LSU. LSU scares me the most, as the Tigers have played well in a loss at Kentucky and a win versus Florida.
Now, I don’t get too much into numbers and RPI rankings and strength of schedule and all that mess. These brackets are just my opinion, mostly based on watching a lot of basketball, reading a lot about basketball, and common sense. Things will change, and I will try to post regularly my actual tracking chart of teams and conferences.
Sleepers:
Recall that I divide sleepers into two groups: first round/upset sleepers (Bucknell ‘05, Santa Clara ‘93, Weber-friggin-State ‘99, etc) and Final Four sleepers (Syracuse ’96, Arizona ’97, UNC ’00, etc). An “Upset Sleeper” must be a 12-seed or lower to qualify and a Final Four sleeper must be a 5-seed or lower.
Upset Sleepers: Long Beach State, Holy Cross, South Alabama, Xavier (if applicable)
Final Four Sleepers: Maryland, Vanderbilt, Southern Cal, UNLV
I love Long Beach State if they make the dance. Their top seven players are all seniors, they shoot a ton of threes (and shoot them quickly), and mix up their defense enough to overshadow the fact that they really are not that good defensively. This is important, because those switching defenses will be unfamiliar to their potential first-round opponent and it will take multiple possessions to adjust. However, note that they are the type of team who could come out and have a bad shooting night and get blown out as a result. And all of this, again, is only if they make the NCAA Tournament.
Of course, I also have a category called the Five to Thrive. These are five teams I think will succeed in March, regardless of seed. Doesn’t mean they’re Final Four picks, I just have a feeling they will play well in the tournament and are not getting a ton of publicity as such. Two years ago, this list included Michigan St (Final Four team). Last year’s list included LSU (also a Final Four team). And yes, that made me one out of five last year (the others were UNC, KU, Washington, and Ohio St. Ouch).
As a note, my original list, written on the back of a DORNA signage tracking sheet at a Virginia Tech women’s basketball game a month ago, included Georgetown before they started playing really well and getting hyped up. Kansas was on the same list. Both teams are now on fire and are getting hyped up by the media. Just so you know…
Vanderbilt – Spread the floor, everyone can shoot, Derrick Byers is the go-to guy. Kevin Stallings is one of the more underrated coaches in the country in my opinion, and he will have his team ready. A good matchup could see them in the Sweet 16.
Georgetown – They’re staying on my list, even though they’ll get a higher seed than I generally allow for in the Five to Thrive. Again, style of play will be key; if the Hoyas get a bad matchup, things could end early. As it is, I think they’ll be playing in at least the Sweet 16, possibly the Elite Eight, and certainly have the ability to make it to Atlanta (the site of this year’s Final Four).
Texas – no one wants to play the Horns. They are really young and playing hot basketball right now…just like Kansas was last year before they lost in the first round to Bradley and ruined brackets across the country. But, Texas is different because they have Kevin Durant. He is the entire reason alone that Texas is on this list.
UNLV – Mainly because one of the three/four Mountain West Conference teams is going to make a run of some sort, I just don’t know who. BYU is not as talented as UNLV, Air Force is playing poorly right now, and San Diego St is on the outside looking in today. UNLV is athletic, has played a tough schedule, and has a good coach in Lon Kruger.
Virginia Tech – Because I love my job. And because they have an experienced backcourt, a go-to guy in Zabian Dowdell, and can play multiple styles in the tournament. A slowdown game does not favor Tech, but the Hokies have won games in the fifties this season as well. And yes, I was going to say Maryland, but everyone on ESPN is blowing the Terps right now and I refuse to join the party.
Bonus – Xavier. Just a weird feeling. Which is probably my supper from last night, meaning Xavier will miss the tournament all together.
Final Four Contenders???:
I love Kansas. I like UCLA. I am hott for Texas A&M, but Joseph Jones keeps fouling out of games. I love Carolina as a fan, but…truth is, I don’t really know who is a Final Four Contender. Every team has a weakness in my eyes. It might be easier to say who I don’t like:
Ohio State – Greg Oden plays defense, but he is the lone Buckeye who does so on a regular basis. They did do an admirable job against Wisconsin last Sunday, but I am skeptical of their ability to do it for four straight games in the NCAA Tournament.
Wisconsin – Can’t shoot, lost Brian Butch, Kameron Taylor is too streaky. There defense will keep them in games, but they look more like a second-round upset waiting to happen than a viable national title contender.
Memphis – I don’t think anyone has an accurate gauge on Memphis because they haven’t played a really good team in three months. One of these years under Calipari, they’ll make the Final Four. I just don’t think this is the one.
Florida – teams that try to “turn it on” in March frequently lose. I’ll make a decision on the Gators based on how they play in the SEC Tournament next week. When focused, they are obviously very, very good. When distracted, they lose to LSU and Tennessee. Ugh.
Pittsburgh – just have my doubts. In fact, I don’t know of many people who really like this team’s chances. Not that they will be upset in the first round, but they look like a ho-hum Sweet 16 team.
Nevada – they are ranked in the top ten of the polls right now. However, how many voters have seen the Wolfpack play more than three times? And how many of those voters would think I meant the NC State Wolfpack in the previous sentence? That being said, Nevada just doesn’t do it for me. After all, I’ve seen them play at least twice.
There are some other teams that could make some noise: Washington St, USC, Duke, and Southern Illinois. All four have holes, but wouldn’t be a total shock. Quick problem with Duke: the Blue Devils are already playing with “March desperation”, but have still lost some games. When they win, they out-hustle other teams and just want to win more. When they lose, they still do those things, but don’t have enough talent.
Ok, that is finally enough I reckon. If I were picking a Final Four right now, it would include Kansas, UCLA, North Carolina, and Texas A&M, but obviously all of those highly-ranked teams will not make it to Atlanta. Either way, I’m in full March Madness Mode at this point. Enjoy the beginning of Championship Week, the Duke/Carolina game, the ACC Women’s Tournament, and a cold beverage.
“Baby…would you eat that there snap cracker in your special outfit for me please?”
Saturday, February 03, 2007
Super Bowl Forty One
It's Da Bears, and here's why:
1) Thomas Jones will be the MVP after running for 122yds and two TDs, as discussed with a noted Bears fan. Or he will lay an egg. I'm going with the former...
2) Because Indy cannot completely stop the run. And after Chicago has run for a while, they'll go play-action pass and make big plays. Grossman throws well when given time and openings like that, so I expect a big play or two from him.
3) Given two weeks to prepare, Chicago's defense should be able to add a wrinkle or two to confuse Manning & Co. As I told my Bears friend, the basic principles will be the same, just the disguising of the formation will differ. Look for an ugly first half with a number of three and outs, then a well-played second half. These two teams will feel each other out for a quarter or so, then play conservative for a bit, then turn it lose.
4) I'm not sold on Manning "blowing" the game for Indy. Most people who I have seen picking Chicago are saying Manning will choke or something to that effect. He will play ok, but will not have the football enough to make a huge difference.
5) Devin Hester will alter the game. Not necessarily by returning a touchdown, but by making Indy kick away from him. The Colts will gladly sacrifice ten to fifteen yards of field position in order to keep the ball away from the flash from the U.
Maybe I am picking a little bit against the norm, but in the past day or two, I have come to the conclusion that Chicago will win. I think I have predicted four Super Bowls correctly in the past five, which is a good reason for me to lose this one. But, I commend myself for actually making a selection after hedging on this game for two weeks.
Major shout-out to Grandpa, post-operation. Many prayers to you Chief. Hopefully the good Lord will give you a clean bill of health so you can get back to eating chicken at a fourteen-meals-per-week rate. This.
go Bears.
1) Thomas Jones will be the MVP after running for 122yds and two TDs, as discussed with a noted Bears fan. Or he will lay an egg. I'm going with the former...
2) Because Indy cannot completely stop the run. And after Chicago has run for a while, they'll go play-action pass and make big plays. Grossman throws well when given time and openings like that, so I expect a big play or two from him.
3) Given two weeks to prepare, Chicago's defense should be able to add a wrinkle or two to confuse Manning & Co. As I told my Bears friend, the basic principles will be the same, just the disguising of the formation will differ. Look for an ugly first half with a number of three and outs, then a well-played second half. These two teams will feel each other out for a quarter or so, then play conservative for a bit, then turn it lose.
4) I'm not sold on Manning "blowing" the game for Indy. Most people who I have seen picking Chicago are saying Manning will choke or something to that effect. He will play ok, but will not have the football enough to make a huge difference.
5) Devin Hester will alter the game. Not necessarily by returning a touchdown, but by making Indy kick away from him. The Colts will gladly sacrifice ten to fifteen yards of field position in order to keep the ball away from the flash from the U.
Maybe I am picking a little bit against the norm, but in the past day or two, I have come to the conclusion that Chicago will win. I think I have predicted four Super Bowls correctly in the past five, which is a good reason for me to lose this one. But, I commend myself for actually making a selection after hedging on this game for two weeks.
Major shout-out to Grandpa, post-operation. Many prayers to you Chief. Hopefully the good Lord will give you a clean bill of health so you can get back to eating chicken at a fourteen-meals-per-week rate. This.
go Bears.
Saturday, January 06, 2007
NFL Playoff Predictions
Ok, fine, these are really more guesses than predictions. Anyway, here we go.
NE over NY Jets
Indy over KC
Seattle over Dallas
Philly over NY Giants (shaky on this one)
SD over NE (shaky here too)
Balt over Indy (shaky here...sense the theme?)
Seattle over Chicago
NO over Philly
Balt over SD
Seattle over NO
Balt over Seattle 24-13 in Super Bowl Xtra-Large I
Thoughts:
Seattle hasn't been truly healthy all year. Therefore, I'm betting on them playing better now that they've been healthy for a little while.
Chicago is being doubted by everyone; maybe this will motivate them. However, I think their injuries on defense will weaken them too much to overcome.
NE is all over the place. I typically pick them in the playoffs, but they really haven't shown me much hopethis year. I originally picked them at SD, but changed my mind. SD's lack of experience really bothers me, and not just Rivers. We'll see though.
I am picking Baltimore by default more than anything. If they get behind to anyone early, they'll lose because the offense still isn't that good. But their defense is the most dominant unit in the playoffs, which makes a difference.
I personally prefer Chicago or NO in the NFC. The AFC has SD, I like watching Baltimore's D, and Peyton deserves to win one. Of course, America will pull for NO and rightfully so, and the Dallas and Chicago fans wil be loud as well. Hopefully it will be a fun post-season for all.
It's da name that's runnin' the game...
NE over NY Jets
Indy over KC
Seattle over Dallas
Philly over NY Giants (shaky on this one)
SD over NE (shaky here too)
Balt over Indy (shaky here...sense the theme?)
Seattle over Chicago
NO over Philly
Balt over SD
Seattle over NO
Balt over Seattle 24-13 in Super Bowl Xtra-Large I
Thoughts:
Seattle hasn't been truly healthy all year. Therefore, I'm betting on them playing better now that they've been healthy for a little while.
Chicago is being doubted by everyone; maybe this will motivate them. However, I think their injuries on defense will weaken them too much to overcome.
NE is all over the place. I typically pick them in the playoffs, but they really haven't shown me much hopethis year. I originally picked them at SD, but changed my mind. SD's lack of experience really bothers me, and not just Rivers. We'll see though.
I am picking Baltimore by default more than anything. If they get behind to anyone early, they'll lose because the offense still isn't that good. But their defense is the most dominant unit in the playoffs, which makes a difference.
I personally prefer Chicago or NO in the NFC. The AFC has SD, I like watching Baltimore's D, and Peyton deserves to win one. Of course, America will pull for NO and rightfully so, and the Dallas and Chicago fans wil be loud as well. Hopefully it will be a fun post-season for all.
It's da name that's runnin' the game...
Thursday, January 04, 2007
Bracketography
Quick pub for the NCAA website for which contributions are made:
www.bracketography.com
New article up on my former employer univeristy, the Clemson Tigers. IPTAY for life.
www.bracketography.com
New article up on my former employer univeristy, the Clemson Tigers. IPTAY for life.
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