Bracket Projection

As of 11:10pm on Saturday night...

Last five in: Texas Tech, Stanford, Purdue, Illinois, Florida St.

Last five out: Kansas St, Drexel, Old Dominion, West Virginia, Air Force

I am least convinced of Illinois & Florida St, as seen by their slots as 64 & 65. Illinois has not impressed me all year, and I've seen them numerous times. FSU has convinced me, but I doubt they will convince the committee. Clearly, my ACC alliance plays a role, but I think FSU is a quality team. I have seen a number of other bubble teams in person this year and think FSU is better than all of them.

I heard Lunardi on ESPN saying that Stanford was out. I disagree completely. They lost to a good USC team in the quarterfinals on Thursday in the Pac-10 tournament, which apparently dropped them from a 9-seed last week to out of the tournament this week. No way. In my opinion, if Stanford misses this year's field, they will have as good or better an argument than Cincinnati had last year.

As far as number one seeds go, I'm all in for Ohio St, UCLA, and Florida. I'm waiting on Carolina or Kansas. The Heels have the better resume as far as RPI, etc, but Kansas has been so hot recently that the human element tells me they deserve a number one seed. I am obviously on UCLA's side, despite their consecutive losses to close the season. How does a team go from number one overall seed to a number two seed with one upset loss? Maybe the margin of error this year is just that tight, but I'm not buying that either. Who would have thought I'd ever come off as a Pac-10 apologist.

Finally, pay close attention to NC State and Arkansas on Sunday. If either wins, that takes a bid away from one of the above bubble candidates. If both were to win, it would practically be a bubble team killing spree this week, with up to five bids stolen. Both teams have a solid chance, but I'm not betting against Florida...and I'm stopping short of jinxing the Tar Heels. You think I'm crazy?

Alright, hopefully one more posting tomorrow pre-brackets. I'll be out of town Mon-Wed, so if I make a pre-tournament posting, it will probably be on Thursday morning. Either way, set your clocks forward an hour (thanks Brilla), and enjoy a happy ultimate holiday: 311 Day & Bracket Day.

"You're a transistor, lightning resistor, connected to the mother star, yeah that's what you are..."