Dear God:
Lord, you are good. Period. You created us, gave us life, and take away life. More importantly, you also gave us eternal life through your Son, Jesus. For some reason, you chose to grant me the free will to choose you in return. I trust you, Lord, with my life, with this earth, and with the afterlife.
But God, I have some questions following the past month or so. Jason Ray died. Pam Barrow died. Christie Smith is in critcal condition. And today, at least thirty three people were killed in the town I live, Blacksburg, VA, at Virginia Tech. And I don't know why. But God, that's not my question. The "why?" aspect of all these things is far above my grasp. You know, clearly, why each of these things has happened. I don't really need to know why they happened. Besides, there's always the chance I might not like the answer.
But I do want to know, "why not?" As in, "God, why them and not me?" I think that's a natural, albeit morbid, question. I mean, why has J-Ray got to be the first BOFFO member to go to heaven? Why does Christie's incredible heart for God have to be slowed by a horse riding accident? Why does my friend Jessica have to lose her mom so soon after losing her Dad?
And God, you haven't told me the answers to these questions yet. Don't get me wrong, I'm not looking to check out on earth yet. I think there's still some good I can do here. Certainly, I want to glorify you with as much of my life as I can while I'm in this life. But it still makes me wonder why it was a specific person, how do you choose?
God, I don't expect an answer to this question either. I think the ultimate answer is that each bit of sadness on this earth helps create heaven. Without our sadness on earth, there would be no reason to have heaven, where all glory is your's. Obviously there is so much pain and sadness here, in our lives. I just ask that you give each of us the strength to get through it all, and provide us the discernment to know and understand your will and your power over all things.
Love,
KPW
Ok, some thoughts on Virginia Tech. Since I am not a student at Tech, I was not really in danger, nor directly effected (at least thus far) by the shootings today. I do not know a ton of students, but the ones I do are safe. However, to say that today did not effect me in some way would trivialize the events. The best description is surreal. It is really hard to relate what I watched unfold on my office's television and outside our windows as being reality. People really died. And it happened in Blacksburg, VA. The eerieness of the town is...well, eerie. Today will define the college experience for many students at Tech, and the lives of many people in the New River Valley.
Next, it is important, at least in my mind, to try to grasp the magnitude of the events in a historical context. As I have discussed with multiple people, today will be in history books that our children read. The shooter's name, once released, will be infamous. Virginia Tech will be mentioned in the same breath as Columbine, Kent State, University of Texas, Oklahoma City, Olympic Park bombings, and of course, 9/11. Re-read that sentence and let it sink in for a minute. I had to read it aloud.
Also, I tried to put myself in the position of someone in a classroom. Growing up, I often thought about being a hero of sorts in a hostage situation or some other crisis. Ok, that's probably from playing with too many G.I. Joes (I still have over 200 mind you). But, the point is I wanted to put myself in the situation to figure out how I'd react. Ideally, I'd be rushing the gunman, throwing a desk, throwing a chair, and probably getting shot in the process. Certainly helping others and putting myself at risk. But is that what I would actually have done? If you're not close enough to jump the gunman, what do you do?
The news conferences and questions have been a little rough. Hindsight is 20/20. I'm sure that not everything possible was done to prevent this incident, but there is no precedent. No one can be blamed, so quit trying to find someone (ahem, journalists). Just be patient and wait until everything is straightened out. Your grilling of the people involved is not helping the crisis, so back off.
Please continue to pray for Virginia Tech, its students and staff, Blacksburg, and our society. Also, THANK YOU to everyone who called, emailed, Facebook-ed, text messaged, or just spoke to me today. Yes, I am ok, but just to know that such a high number of people would think to inquire and care is amazing. Not really just concern for me, but mainly for how people were doing up here. Some of you I had not spoken with in years and you still got in touch. It means a lot that you care about VT and our community.
I am confident that God is doing great things through this horrible tragedy. He will be glorified somehow, and already has been. Please pray also that His love will pour out on this campus and people will come to Him for eternal love and support. Remember, when everything else is falling apart, God is steadfast in His love for each of us.
Monday, April 16, 2007
Monday, March 26, 2007
When Basketball Does Not Matter: Part 2
A tragic update to the below blog entry: Jason Ray, 21, passed away today. A sad situation is now officially tragic. JRay, we love you man. Your spirit will truly live on in the hearts and lives of everyone you touched during your time on this earth. We know you are in heaven now, perfect and praising Jesus. Thank you, Lord, for giving us time with Jason on this earth. We look forward to being reunited with him for eternity thanks to the sacrifice of your Son.
Boffo is defined as, "extremely successful; great." You certainly fit that definition. Much love Jason Ray, we miss you.
Boffo is defined as, "extremely successful; great." You certainly fit that definition. Much love Jason Ray, we miss you.
Sunday, March 25, 2007
When Basketball Doesn't Matter
There are times in life when you find yourself so absorbed by yourself that nothing else registers in your mind. What I mean is that it is our nature as humans (also known as our sin) to become completely engrossed in Me: what I think, what I want, when I want it, Me. This state of mind comes to different individuals in varying ways. For me, it frequently arises as sports. I become completely and totally engrossed in a particular game or team, blocking out everything else. Two years ago, as Carolina was beginning to make a run at a national championship, I was able to let it all go. The season was not in my control, it was not in our players' control; it was in God's control. This season became much the same the past few weeks. I have watched, cheered, strategized, hoped, and prayed, as I always do, but with a clearer sense that life is much bigger than this particular basketball season. At least I thought I understood that.
Second half. East Regional Semi-Finals. Southern California is kicking my Tar Heel butt. And I really must have thought I was playing. I hollered. I yelled. I screamed at one point. Frustrated and frankly pissed off, I was very close to giving up hope. Translation: I was not just letting it go and turning it over to God. Then Jim Nantz brought the game back from a commercial and basketball ceased to matter.
To summarize, Nantz announced a statement from the University of North Carolina Director of Athletics, Dick Baddour. Jason Ray, a senior from Concord, NC, had been injured in a pedestrian/vehicle accident prior to that evening's game. Ray, who portrays the Ramses mascot, was hit by a car exiting the freeway in New Jersey and was in critical condition at an area hospital. Shocked, I paused the DVR and began to pray. Basketball suddenly did not matter one bit.
JRay is one-of-a-kind. Don't get me wrong, we are not best friends. But, we are definitely friends. He's a guy in my life that I would move through a crowd to say hello to, have a solid conversation, and sincerely mean it when I finished with, "it's good seeing you buddy." Because it's always good to see Jason. He is enthusiastic, passionate, hilarious, and really genuine.
Jason & I share a bond between men. We were in an InterVarsity Bible Study in Morrison Dorm my junior year at Carolina; Jason was a freshmen. BOFFO, as this group became known, was a group of around twenty guys or so who had Jesus in common. We met every week for what was supposed to be an hour and a half or so. Frequently, our fun Tuesday nights would instead last for at least three hours. We cut up, we talked about God, we talked about our lives, and we listened to each other. JRay brought humor and he brought enthusiasm. But, he also brought honesty and a willingness to share. It was rare for a freshman in a group setting be so frank and comfortable talking about stuff. He shared great stories and motivated others to do the same. This group was BOFFO because it was so tight-knit. We were a group of guys from varying backgrounds, of different age, and unique interests. But man, we were close. Green t-shirts, orange letters. BOFFO.
Over the three plus years since our year together, the BOFFO guys have grown up a great deal. That large freshmen class Jason is a part of are now seniors. A number of the rest of us have graduated. We no longer all see each other every day, every week, or even every year. But since my graduation, JRay is someone I have constantly run into. I go to a lot of Tar Heel sporting events, and clearly, so does Ramses. We talked for about an hour last year prior to a home basketball game while killing time. About my job, his classes, girlfriends, life in general, and nothing at all. It was a fun time, just two dudes hanging out and being honest with one another because that's all we know how to be together.
The last time I saw Jason was just last weekend, in Winston-Salem, at the 1st/2nd Round NCAA Tournament games. I only saw him out of costume for a few minutes, but he was in good spirits, of course. My friends and I watched as Ramses directed the Carolina band, pumped up the crowd, and generally acted a fool. But what an enthusiastic, happy fool he was.
As of right now, JRay is still in the hospital. I do not know his exact condition other than what I have been told. His family and closest friends are by his side, providing prayer and support. It does not look good, but things like this never look good. Here's what I do know. Jason Ray is truly an awesome guy, a man who loves God and his friends. He loves life, period. There is no doubt in my mind where his heart is and that he serves God. But his life is not in our control. It is completely up to God as to whether Jason joins Him in heaven now, or later.
I also know this. I always think of JRay with a smile. Everytime I hear a Rage Against the Machine song, I think of him freestyling Rage in our BOFFO group. When I think of my time in college, I think a lot about that BOFFO group and the fun we had, the jokes we still have, the tears we shed, and the close bond of the guys. There are a lot of people that you do not comprehend their impact on your life until something happens. Jason is not one of those people. You are very aware of him and how special he is while you interact with him. To be able to call him a genuine friend is an honor.
There are many others, some who may be reading this, who are much closer to Jason. You are even more blessed than I. You are thinking of inside jokes, funny stories, deep conversations, tears, laughter, and other special times than involve Jason. Treasure those memories.
You see, basketball does not matter. Life matters. Friends matter. Serving Christ and eventually enjoying eternity with Him matters. Yes, Carolina lost tonight to Georgetown to end the season. Choked away the game, quite frankly. Was it fun? Nope. Did it feel good? Not at all. But does it really matter?
I'll write about the NCAA Tournament at some point this week. Analyze the Tar Heels and the upcoming Final Four. Reflect on the season that has been and look ahead to next year. But I'll do it with a heavy heart and a prayerful soul. Please keep Jason Ray, his family, and his friends in your prayers. In BOFFO, we had a verse that we lived by and had embroidered on the back of our t-shirts: Proverbs 27:17. "As iron sharpens iron, so one man sharpens another." It basically means for all men to lift up one another through prayer and your daily walk with God. JRay, that's what we're doing right now. From one BOFFO guy to another, keep fightin'. Know that we love you and are lifting you up always.
Basketball just doesn't matter. Life matters. People matter. And Jason Ray, you matter.
Second half. East Regional Semi-Finals. Southern California is kicking my Tar Heel butt. And I really must have thought I was playing. I hollered. I yelled. I screamed at one point. Frustrated and frankly pissed off, I was very close to giving up hope. Translation: I was not just letting it go and turning it over to God. Then Jim Nantz brought the game back from a commercial and basketball ceased to matter.
To summarize, Nantz announced a statement from the University of North Carolina Director of Athletics, Dick Baddour. Jason Ray, a senior from Concord, NC, had been injured in a pedestrian/vehicle accident prior to that evening's game. Ray, who portrays the Ramses mascot, was hit by a car exiting the freeway in New Jersey and was in critical condition at an area hospital. Shocked, I paused the DVR and began to pray. Basketball suddenly did not matter one bit.
JRay is one-of-a-kind. Don't get me wrong, we are not best friends. But, we are definitely friends. He's a guy in my life that I would move through a crowd to say hello to, have a solid conversation, and sincerely mean it when I finished with, "it's good seeing you buddy." Because it's always good to see Jason. He is enthusiastic, passionate, hilarious, and really genuine.
Jason & I share a bond between men. We were in an InterVarsity Bible Study in Morrison Dorm my junior year at Carolina; Jason was a freshmen. BOFFO, as this group became known, was a group of around twenty guys or so who had Jesus in common. We met every week for what was supposed to be an hour and a half or so. Frequently, our fun Tuesday nights would instead last for at least three hours. We cut up, we talked about God, we talked about our lives, and we listened to each other. JRay brought humor and he brought enthusiasm. But, he also brought honesty and a willingness to share. It was rare for a freshman in a group setting be so frank and comfortable talking about stuff. He shared great stories and motivated others to do the same. This group was BOFFO because it was so tight-knit. We were a group of guys from varying backgrounds, of different age, and unique interests. But man, we were close. Green t-shirts, orange letters. BOFFO.
Over the three plus years since our year together, the BOFFO guys have grown up a great deal. That large freshmen class Jason is a part of are now seniors. A number of the rest of us have graduated. We no longer all see each other every day, every week, or even every year. But since my graduation, JRay is someone I have constantly run into. I go to a lot of Tar Heel sporting events, and clearly, so does Ramses. We talked for about an hour last year prior to a home basketball game while killing time. About my job, his classes, girlfriends, life in general, and nothing at all. It was a fun time, just two dudes hanging out and being honest with one another because that's all we know how to be together.
The last time I saw Jason was just last weekend, in Winston-Salem, at the 1st/2nd Round NCAA Tournament games. I only saw him out of costume for a few minutes, but he was in good spirits, of course. My friends and I watched as Ramses directed the Carolina band, pumped up the crowd, and generally acted a fool. But what an enthusiastic, happy fool he was.
As of right now, JRay is still in the hospital. I do not know his exact condition other than what I have been told. His family and closest friends are by his side, providing prayer and support. It does not look good, but things like this never look good. Here's what I do know. Jason Ray is truly an awesome guy, a man who loves God and his friends. He loves life, period. There is no doubt in my mind where his heart is and that he serves God. But his life is not in our control. It is completely up to God as to whether Jason joins Him in heaven now, or later.
I also know this. I always think of JRay with a smile. Everytime I hear a Rage Against the Machine song, I think of him freestyling Rage in our BOFFO group. When I think of my time in college, I think a lot about that BOFFO group and the fun we had, the jokes we still have, the tears we shed, and the close bond of the guys. There are a lot of people that you do not comprehend their impact on your life until something happens. Jason is not one of those people. You are very aware of him and how special he is while you interact with him. To be able to call him a genuine friend is an honor.
There are many others, some who may be reading this, who are much closer to Jason. You are even more blessed than I. You are thinking of inside jokes, funny stories, deep conversations, tears, laughter, and other special times than involve Jason. Treasure those memories.
You see, basketball does not matter. Life matters. Friends matter. Serving Christ and eventually enjoying eternity with Him matters. Yes, Carolina lost tonight to Georgetown to end the season. Choked away the game, quite frankly. Was it fun? Nope. Did it feel good? Not at all. But does it really matter?
I'll write about the NCAA Tournament at some point this week. Analyze the Tar Heels and the upcoming Final Four. Reflect on the season that has been and look ahead to next year. But I'll do it with a heavy heart and a prayerful soul. Please keep Jason Ray, his family, and his friends in your prayers. In BOFFO, we had a verse that we lived by and had embroidered on the back of our t-shirts: Proverbs 27:17. "As iron sharpens iron, so one man sharpens another." It basically means for all men to lift up one another through prayer and your daily walk with God. JRay, that's what we're doing right now. From one BOFFO guy to another, keep fightin'. Know that we love you and are lifting you up always.
Basketball just doesn't matter. Life matters. People matter. And Jason Ray, you matter.
Saturday, March 10, 2007
Bracket Projection
As of 11:10pm on Saturday night...
Last five in: Texas Tech, Stanford, Purdue, Illinois, Florida St.
Last five out: Kansas St, Drexel, Old Dominion, West Virginia, Air Force
I am least convinced of Illinois & Florida St, as seen by their slots as 64 & 65. Illinois has not impressed me all year, and I've seen them numerous times. FSU has convinced me, but I doubt they will convince the committee. Clearly, my ACC alliance plays a role, but I think FSU is a quality team. I have seen a number of other bubble teams in person this year and think FSU is better than all of them.
I heard Lunardi on ESPN saying that Stanford was out. I disagree completely. They lost to a good USC team in the quarterfinals on Thursday in the Pac-10 tournament, which apparently dropped them from a 9-seed last week to out of the tournament this week. No way. In my opinion, if Stanford misses this year's field, they will have as good or better an argument than Cincinnati had last year.
As far as number one seeds go, I'm all in for Ohio St, UCLA, and Florida. I'm waiting on Carolina or Kansas. The Heels have the better resume as far as RPI, etc, but Kansas has been so hot recently that the human element tells me they deserve a number one seed. I am obviously on UCLA's side, despite their consecutive losses to close the season. How does a team go from number one overall seed to a number two seed with one upset loss? Maybe the margin of error this year is just that tight, but I'm not buying that either. Who would have thought I'd ever come off as a Pac-10 apologist.
Finally, pay close attention to NC State and Arkansas on Sunday. If either wins, that takes a bid away from one of the above bubble candidates. If both were to win, it would practically be a bubble team killing spree this week, with up to five bids stolen. Both teams have a solid chance, but I'm not betting against Florida...and I'm stopping short of jinxing the Tar Heels. You think I'm crazy?
Alright, hopefully one more posting tomorrow pre-brackets. I'll be out of town Mon-Wed, so if I make a pre-tournament posting, it will probably be on Thursday morning. Either way, set your clocks forward an hour (thanks Brilla), and enjoy a happy ultimate holiday: 311 Day & Bracket Day.
"You're a transistor, lightning resistor, connected to the mother star, yeah that's what you are..."
Last five in: Texas Tech, Stanford, Purdue, Illinois, Florida St.
Last five out: Kansas St, Drexel, Old Dominion, West Virginia, Air Force
I am least convinced of Illinois & Florida St, as seen by their slots as 64 & 65. Illinois has not impressed me all year, and I've seen them numerous times. FSU has convinced me, but I doubt they will convince the committee. Clearly, my ACC alliance plays a role, but I think FSU is a quality team. I have seen a number of other bubble teams in person this year and think FSU is better than all of them.
I heard Lunardi on ESPN saying that Stanford was out. I disagree completely. They lost to a good USC team in the quarterfinals on Thursday in the Pac-10 tournament, which apparently dropped them from a 9-seed last week to out of the tournament this week. No way. In my opinion, if Stanford misses this year's field, they will have as good or better an argument than Cincinnati had last year.
As far as number one seeds go, I'm all in for Ohio St, UCLA, and Florida. I'm waiting on Carolina or Kansas. The Heels have the better resume as far as RPI, etc, but Kansas has been so hot recently that the human element tells me they deserve a number one seed. I am obviously on UCLA's side, despite their consecutive losses to close the season. How does a team go from number one overall seed to a number two seed with one upset loss? Maybe the margin of error this year is just that tight, but I'm not buying that either. Who would have thought I'd ever come off as a Pac-10 apologist.
Finally, pay close attention to NC State and Arkansas on Sunday. If either wins, that takes a bid away from one of the above bubble candidates. If both were to win, it would practically be a bubble team killing spree this week, with up to five bids stolen. Both teams have a solid chance, but I'm not betting against Florida...and I'm stopping short of jinxing the Tar Heels. You think I'm crazy?
Alright, hopefully one more posting tomorrow pre-brackets. I'll be out of town Mon-Wed, so if I make a pre-tournament posting, it will probably be on Thursday morning. Either way, set your clocks forward an hour (thanks Brilla), and enjoy a happy ultimate holiday: 311 Day & Bracket Day.
"You're a transistor, lightning resistor, connected to the mother star, yeah that's what you are..."
Thursday, March 01, 2007
NCAA Madness
Let’s cover a few college basketball related items before we get into discussing the NCAA Tournament (editor’s note: most of this blog was typed Sunday night, then somehow put off until Thursday morning for posting. What can I say, I suck at life).
First, the National Player of the Year debate will heat up soon. I’m here to say that Kevin Durant should win it, period. Without Durant, Texas is fighting to be included in the Big Dance. With him, they’re a 3-5 seed, competing with Kansas to win the Big 12 regular season title, while starting four freshmen and a sophomore. Alando Tucker of Wisconsin is a lovely player, a senior who’s stuck around (more because he’s a 6-5 small forward than he loves college that much) and is leading the Badgers to a memorable season. But, he’s not the best player in the country. Neither are Tyler Hansbrough, Aaron Brooks, anyone on Florida, nor Greg Oden (please, he shouldn’t be in the discussion). The only player I could see an argument for is Acie Law IV of Texas A&M. He’s the definition of clutch, leading the Aggies to their best season ever. Need proof? Find a tape of last night’s epic battle with the above-mentioned Longhorns of Texas, where Law IV made two tying three-pointers to extend the game. Better yet, according to Tom Brennan of ESPN, Law IV is outscoring the opposition in the last four minutes of games by himself. Read that again. Sunk in yet? For a term that is thrown around far too often, that is truly a clutch player right there. But, I’m still giving the nod to Durant. You’ve probably heard enough about him by now, so I’ll save all the statistics to back it up. If you want to argue though, just look at his numbers and call me later.
Second, the ACC Player of the Year picture is a little cloudier. Jared Dudley looked like a runaway winner until last week. I’m not certain that Dudley can win the award now, with the recent slide for BC combined with the general bias of the voters on Tobacco Road. However, only Tyler Hansbrough and Josh McRoberts are candidates in that area, and McRoberts is a big stretch. Al Thornton is probably the best player in the league, but he’s buried on a nearly-dead Florida St team. That leaves us with the UVA guards, Singletary and Reynolds, and Virginia Tech guard Zabian Dowdell. Personally, I feel the UVA guards will cancel out votes. Neither is more important or consistently better than the other. That leaves us with Dowdell. Obviously, I am quite biased since I work at Virginia Tech and watch him every night. That being said, I would vote for Dowdell. He is completely vital to Virginia Tech’s success. If the Hokies end up tying for or winning outright the ACC Regular Season championship, then he has to at least be considered. At this point, I say it’s a three player race between Dowdell, Dudley, and Hansbrough.
Third, the Tar Heels. I should caution you, the reader, that I’m typing this incredibly rare blog entry within two hours of the loss at Maryland. So yes, I’m ramming my head into a wall right now. But, far prior to this evening, I’ve come to a conclusion on this team. Think back to 1986, 1995, or 1997 for a reference point, because those are the comparable teams to this one. The ’86 team was very, very good and more experienced than this team, but just didn’t have the killer instinct. The 1995 team was extremely talented, but lacked a vocal leader and defensive stopper. The 1997 team was shaky for half the season, but got hot and road a winning streak into a tie for the ACC Regular Season title, won the ACC Tournament, and flamed out in the Final Four with poor shooting and the inability to maintain a lead. What’s the comparison? All of these teams lacked the ability to successfully go for the kill.
I came to my conclusion during the loss earlier this season at NC State, a less-talented opponent rolling on emotion. Carolina failed to get a big stop, took bad shots, and let State hang in the game. The same thing happened against Virginia Tech at home and again Sunday night against Maryland (minus the bad shots). To me, that reveals two related problems. First, there are times this team does not understand how desperate an opponent is playing. My biggest concern entering the season was that come March, this team would not understand the intensity it takes and the desperation it takes to win. Lose, your season is over. This comes largely from leaders on the team communicating this fact to freshmen who have never experienced it. Obviously this problem still exists (leadership has been shaky, no matter what people have said).
Second, the Tar Heels have an inability to shoot someone execution style. Viewers of any television drama involving Jack Bauer know how many times he has been on the brink of death, but escaped. How many would-be killers are going to put him on his knees, hold a gun to his head, and launch into a five minute monologue about the past, what they did, why they did it, only to see Jack escape and kill them? That is exactly what this team has done this season in its three most-recent losses. The bad guy was down, you are ready to kill him, and you somehow blow it. Carolina doesn’t go for the kill nearly enough and succeed. Yes, it was done at Boston College. Yes, the foot never came off the gas at Clemson. And yes, this team won at Duke in a tough environment. But it has not been consistent and I do not think it will suddenly become a collective assassin in the NCAA Tournament. Can they? Certainly. Will they? Don’t get your hopes up. I’m certainly not.
Ok, on to the real discussion of the upcoming Selection Sunday festivities. For the first time in a while (I’m too lazy to see how long “a while” is), Selection Sunday is the same day as 311 Day. I will celebrate by listening to 311 all day long while watching basketball and editing my bracket. While I’d love to have to pause my CD player during the ACC Tournament final (pending a Carolina appearance), I doubt that will be an issue (see above paragraphs). I will be ending celebrations a bit early that evening because I fly out the following Monday to beautiful Pittsburgh (sarcasm, sarcasm) for a three day sales training academy. Surely I will not be looking at brackets on this trip, right?
Entering the season of brackets, three main topics come up: who are the real contenders for the Final Four/National Title, who are the sleeper teams, and who is on the bubble. In reverse order:
Bubble: Currently, I have 47 tournament bids in “lock” status. This includes the 31 automatic bids that go to league champions, plus 16 at-large bids. Here are those teams:
Automatic Bids (current conference leaders) –
America East
Vermont
A-10
Xavier
ACC
Carolina
Atlantic Sun
ETSU
Big East
Pittsburgh
Big 12
Kansas
Big Sky
Weber St
Big South
Winthrop
Big Ten
Ohio State
Big West
Long Beach St
CAA
Virginia Commonwealth
C-USA
Memphis
Horizon
Wright St
Ivy
Penn
MAAC
Marist
Mid-Con
Oral Roberts
Mid-American
Toledo
MEAC
Delaware St
Missouri Valley
Southern Illinois
Mountain West
BYU
NEC
Cen Conn State
Ohio Valley
Austin Peay
Pac-10
UCLA
Patriot
Holy Cross
SEC
Florida
Southern
Davidson
Southland
A&M C-C
SWAC
Jackson St
Sun Belt
South Alabama
West Coast
Santa Clara
WAC
Nevada
The sixteen at-large spots that are, in my opinion, locks:
Duke
Carolina
UVA
Boston College
Georgetown
Marquette
Wisconsin
Texas A&M
Texas
Washington St
Oregon
Southern Cal
Kentucky
Butler
Air Force
UNLV
That leaves 18 at-large spots to be decided. Of these 18 spots, nine teams started out the week on my bubble, but are currently solidly “in” the tournament. These 9 teams would have to do something drastically bad to not make the Big Dance. They are:
Maryland
Louisville
Notre Dame
Michigan St
Creighton
Stanford
Arizona
Vanderbilt
Tennessee
Obviously, Maryland should move up a category following the wins over Carolina & Duke. Louisville & Vanderbilt move up as well. That leaves us with another nine spots to be decided right now. As of Monday morning, February 26th, the final nine spots go to (in no particular order)…
Georgia Tech
Villanova
Syracuse
Illinois
Texas Tech
Old Dominion
App State
Gonzaga
Alabama
…with the last teams out being:
Kansas State
Purdue
Clemson
Missouri St
Providence
Oklahoma St
Georgia
San Diego St
Keep in mind, these bids are based a full allotment being available. What I mean is there are always a few at-large spots that are essentially stolen when a team that would get in no matter what loses in its conference tournament. For example, if Butler were to lose in the Horizon conference tournament, they would require one of the at-large bids for tournament entry. Obviously, Butler is clearly a tournament team, so their inclusion would bump someone off the bubble into the NIT. This season, by my count, there are an astonishing eight such instances to keep an eye on:
Atlantic 10 – Xavier (only viable at-large candidate, bubble team at best right now)
Big South – Winthrop (bubble team right now, should make it no matter what)
CAA – Virginia Commonwealth (Old Dominion and Drexel are both knocking on the door)
Conference USA – Memphis (definitely only at-large candidate)
Horizon – Butler (currently lead by Wright St)
Southern – Davidson (App State could potentially get an at-large as well)
West Coast – Gonzaga (currently lead by Santa Clara; Gonzaga is barely in right now anyway)
WAC – Nevada (Utah St and New Mexico St are sneaking into the discussion)
Of these teams, Butler, Nevada, Memphis, Winthrop, and Gonzaga would currently be in the field even if they lost in their conference tournaments. I don’t think Gonzaga can afford a loss personally, but the other four teams should dance in my opinion. Right now, Old Dominion would also sneak in from the CAA; strangely, I’m not sure league-leading VCU would get an at-large. Of course, any major conference could have a bid stolen if a team who would not have gotten an at-large berth makes a magical run. I have a strange feeling that this may happen this year, as a number of talented teams have underachieved in multi-bid leagues. The following teams have enough talent to get hot and win their conference tournaments, but would not make the tournament otherwise: Florida St, UCONN, Providence (could still get an at-large bid), Iowa, Bradley, Wichita St, Washington & LSU. LSU scares me the most, as the Tigers have played well in a loss at Kentucky and a win versus Florida.
Now, I don’t get too much into numbers and RPI rankings and strength of schedule and all that mess. These brackets are just my opinion, mostly based on watching a lot of basketball, reading a lot about basketball, and common sense. Things will change, and I will try to post regularly my actual tracking chart of teams and conferences.
Sleepers:
Recall that I divide sleepers into two groups: first round/upset sleepers (Bucknell ‘05, Santa Clara ‘93, Weber-friggin-State ‘99, etc) and Final Four sleepers (Syracuse ’96, Arizona ’97, UNC ’00, etc). An “Upset Sleeper” must be a 12-seed or lower to qualify and a Final Four sleeper must be a 5-seed or lower.
Upset Sleepers: Long Beach State, Holy Cross, South Alabama, Xavier (if applicable)
Final Four Sleepers: Maryland, Vanderbilt, Southern Cal, UNLV
I love Long Beach State if they make the dance. Their top seven players are all seniors, they shoot a ton of threes (and shoot them quickly), and mix up their defense enough to overshadow the fact that they really are not that good defensively. This is important, because those switching defenses will be unfamiliar to their potential first-round opponent and it will take multiple possessions to adjust. However, note that they are the type of team who could come out and have a bad shooting night and get blown out as a result. And all of this, again, is only if they make the NCAA Tournament.
Of course, I also have a category called the Five to Thrive. These are five teams I think will succeed in March, regardless of seed. Doesn’t mean they’re Final Four picks, I just have a feeling they will play well in the tournament and are not getting a ton of publicity as such. Two years ago, this list included Michigan St (Final Four team). Last year’s list included LSU (also a Final Four team). And yes, that made me one out of five last year (the others were UNC, KU, Washington, and Ohio St. Ouch).
As a note, my original list, written on the back of a DORNA signage tracking sheet at a Virginia Tech women’s basketball game a month ago, included Georgetown before they started playing really well and getting hyped up. Kansas was on the same list. Both teams are now on fire and are getting hyped up by the media. Just so you know…
Vanderbilt – Spread the floor, everyone can shoot, Derrick Byers is the go-to guy. Kevin Stallings is one of the more underrated coaches in the country in my opinion, and he will have his team ready. A good matchup could see them in the Sweet 16.
Georgetown – They’re staying on my list, even though they’ll get a higher seed than I generally allow for in the Five to Thrive. Again, style of play will be key; if the Hoyas get a bad matchup, things could end early. As it is, I think they’ll be playing in at least the Sweet 16, possibly the Elite Eight, and certainly have the ability to make it to Atlanta (the site of this year’s Final Four).
Texas – no one wants to play the Horns. They are really young and playing hot basketball right now…just like Kansas was last year before they lost in the first round to Bradley and ruined brackets across the country. But, Texas is different because they have Kevin Durant. He is the entire reason alone that Texas is on this list.
UNLV – Mainly because one of the three/four Mountain West Conference teams is going to make a run of some sort, I just don’t know who. BYU is not as talented as UNLV, Air Force is playing poorly right now, and San Diego St is on the outside looking in today. UNLV is athletic, has played a tough schedule, and has a good coach in Lon Kruger.
Virginia Tech – Because I love my job. And because they have an experienced backcourt, a go-to guy in Zabian Dowdell, and can play multiple styles in the tournament. A slowdown game does not favor Tech, but the Hokies have won games in the fifties this season as well. And yes, I was going to say Maryland, but everyone on ESPN is blowing the Terps right now and I refuse to join the party.
Bonus – Xavier. Just a weird feeling. Which is probably my supper from last night, meaning Xavier will miss the tournament all together.
Final Four Contenders???:
I love Kansas. I like UCLA. I am hott for Texas A&M, but Joseph Jones keeps fouling out of games. I love Carolina as a fan, but…truth is, I don’t really know who is a Final Four Contender. Every team has a weakness in my eyes. It might be easier to say who I don’t like:
Ohio State – Greg Oden plays defense, but he is the lone Buckeye who does so on a regular basis. They did do an admirable job against Wisconsin last Sunday, but I am skeptical of their ability to do it for four straight games in the NCAA Tournament.
Wisconsin – Can’t shoot, lost Brian Butch, Kameron Taylor is too streaky. There defense will keep them in games, but they look more like a second-round upset waiting to happen than a viable national title contender.
Memphis – I don’t think anyone has an accurate gauge on Memphis because they haven’t played a really good team in three months. One of these years under Calipari, they’ll make the Final Four. I just don’t think this is the one.
Florida – teams that try to “turn it on” in March frequently lose. I’ll make a decision on the Gators based on how they play in the SEC Tournament next week. When focused, they are obviously very, very good. When distracted, they lose to LSU and Tennessee. Ugh.
Pittsburgh – just have my doubts. In fact, I don’t know of many people who really like this team’s chances. Not that they will be upset in the first round, but they look like a ho-hum Sweet 16 team.
Nevada – they are ranked in the top ten of the polls right now. However, how many voters have seen the Wolfpack play more than three times? And how many of those voters would think I meant the NC State Wolfpack in the previous sentence? That being said, Nevada just doesn’t do it for me. After all, I’ve seen them play at least twice.
There are some other teams that could make some noise: Washington St, USC, Duke, and Southern Illinois. All four have holes, but wouldn’t be a total shock. Quick problem with Duke: the Blue Devils are already playing with “March desperation”, but have still lost some games. When they win, they out-hustle other teams and just want to win more. When they lose, they still do those things, but don’t have enough talent.
Ok, that is finally enough I reckon. If I were picking a Final Four right now, it would include Kansas, UCLA, North Carolina, and Texas A&M, but obviously all of those highly-ranked teams will not make it to Atlanta. Either way, I’m in full March Madness Mode at this point. Enjoy the beginning of Championship Week, the Duke/Carolina game, the ACC Women’s Tournament, and a cold beverage.
“Baby…would you eat that there snap cracker in your special outfit for me please?”
First, the National Player of the Year debate will heat up soon. I’m here to say that Kevin Durant should win it, period. Without Durant, Texas is fighting to be included in the Big Dance. With him, they’re a 3-5 seed, competing with Kansas to win the Big 12 regular season title, while starting four freshmen and a sophomore. Alando Tucker of Wisconsin is a lovely player, a senior who’s stuck around (more because he’s a 6-5 small forward than he loves college that much) and is leading the Badgers to a memorable season. But, he’s not the best player in the country. Neither are Tyler Hansbrough, Aaron Brooks, anyone on Florida, nor Greg Oden (please, he shouldn’t be in the discussion). The only player I could see an argument for is Acie Law IV of Texas A&M. He’s the definition of clutch, leading the Aggies to their best season ever. Need proof? Find a tape of last night’s epic battle with the above-mentioned Longhorns of Texas, where Law IV made two tying three-pointers to extend the game. Better yet, according to Tom Brennan of ESPN, Law IV is outscoring the opposition in the last four minutes of games by himself. Read that again. Sunk in yet? For a term that is thrown around far too often, that is truly a clutch player right there. But, I’m still giving the nod to Durant. You’ve probably heard enough about him by now, so I’ll save all the statistics to back it up. If you want to argue though, just look at his numbers and call me later.
Second, the ACC Player of the Year picture is a little cloudier. Jared Dudley looked like a runaway winner until last week. I’m not certain that Dudley can win the award now, with the recent slide for BC combined with the general bias of the voters on Tobacco Road. However, only Tyler Hansbrough and Josh McRoberts are candidates in that area, and McRoberts is a big stretch. Al Thornton is probably the best player in the league, but he’s buried on a nearly-dead Florida St team. That leaves us with the UVA guards, Singletary and Reynolds, and Virginia Tech guard Zabian Dowdell. Personally, I feel the UVA guards will cancel out votes. Neither is more important or consistently better than the other. That leaves us with Dowdell. Obviously, I am quite biased since I work at Virginia Tech and watch him every night. That being said, I would vote for Dowdell. He is completely vital to Virginia Tech’s success. If the Hokies end up tying for or winning outright the ACC Regular Season championship, then he has to at least be considered. At this point, I say it’s a three player race between Dowdell, Dudley, and Hansbrough.
Third, the Tar Heels. I should caution you, the reader, that I’m typing this incredibly rare blog entry within two hours of the loss at Maryland. So yes, I’m ramming my head into a wall right now. But, far prior to this evening, I’ve come to a conclusion on this team. Think back to 1986, 1995, or 1997 for a reference point, because those are the comparable teams to this one. The ’86 team was very, very good and more experienced than this team, but just didn’t have the killer instinct. The 1995 team was extremely talented, but lacked a vocal leader and defensive stopper. The 1997 team was shaky for half the season, but got hot and road a winning streak into a tie for the ACC Regular Season title, won the ACC Tournament, and flamed out in the Final Four with poor shooting and the inability to maintain a lead. What’s the comparison? All of these teams lacked the ability to successfully go for the kill.
I came to my conclusion during the loss earlier this season at NC State, a less-talented opponent rolling on emotion. Carolina failed to get a big stop, took bad shots, and let State hang in the game. The same thing happened against Virginia Tech at home and again Sunday night against Maryland (minus the bad shots). To me, that reveals two related problems. First, there are times this team does not understand how desperate an opponent is playing. My biggest concern entering the season was that come March, this team would not understand the intensity it takes and the desperation it takes to win. Lose, your season is over. This comes largely from leaders on the team communicating this fact to freshmen who have never experienced it. Obviously this problem still exists (leadership has been shaky, no matter what people have said).
Second, the Tar Heels have an inability to shoot someone execution style. Viewers of any television drama involving Jack Bauer know how many times he has been on the brink of death, but escaped. How many would-be killers are going to put him on his knees, hold a gun to his head, and launch into a five minute monologue about the past, what they did, why they did it, only to see Jack escape and kill them? That is exactly what this team has done this season in its three most-recent losses. The bad guy was down, you are ready to kill him, and you somehow blow it. Carolina doesn’t go for the kill nearly enough and succeed. Yes, it was done at Boston College. Yes, the foot never came off the gas at Clemson. And yes, this team won at Duke in a tough environment. But it has not been consistent and I do not think it will suddenly become a collective assassin in the NCAA Tournament. Can they? Certainly. Will they? Don’t get your hopes up. I’m certainly not.
Ok, on to the real discussion of the upcoming Selection Sunday festivities. For the first time in a while (I’m too lazy to see how long “a while” is), Selection Sunday is the same day as 311 Day. I will celebrate by listening to 311 all day long while watching basketball and editing my bracket. While I’d love to have to pause my CD player during the ACC Tournament final (pending a Carolina appearance), I doubt that will be an issue (see above paragraphs). I will be ending celebrations a bit early that evening because I fly out the following Monday to beautiful Pittsburgh (sarcasm, sarcasm) for a three day sales training academy. Surely I will not be looking at brackets on this trip, right?
Entering the season of brackets, three main topics come up: who are the real contenders for the Final Four/National Title, who are the sleeper teams, and who is on the bubble. In reverse order:
Bubble: Currently, I have 47 tournament bids in “lock” status. This includes the 31 automatic bids that go to league champions, plus 16 at-large bids. Here are those teams:
Automatic Bids (current conference leaders) –
America East
Vermont
A-10
Xavier
ACC
Carolina
Atlantic Sun
ETSU
Big East
Pittsburgh
Big 12
Kansas
Big Sky
Weber St
Big South
Winthrop
Big Ten
Ohio State
Big West
Long Beach St
CAA
Virginia Commonwealth
C-USA
Memphis
Horizon
Wright St
Ivy
Penn
MAAC
Marist
Mid-Con
Oral Roberts
Mid-American
Toledo
MEAC
Delaware St
Missouri Valley
Southern Illinois
Mountain West
BYU
NEC
Cen Conn State
Ohio Valley
Austin Peay
Pac-10
UCLA
Patriot
Holy Cross
SEC
Florida
Southern
Davidson
Southland
A&M C-C
SWAC
Jackson St
Sun Belt
South Alabama
West Coast
Santa Clara
WAC
Nevada
The sixteen at-large spots that are, in my opinion, locks:
Duke
Carolina
UVA
Boston College
Georgetown
Marquette
Wisconsin
Texas A&M
Texas
Washington St
Oregon
Southern Cal
Kentucky
Butler
Air Force
UNLV
That leaves 18 at-large spots to be decided. Of these 18 spots, nine teams started out the week on my bubble, but are currently solidly “in” the tournament. These 9 teams would have to do something drastically bad to not make the Big Dance. They are:
Maryland
Louisville
Notre Dame
Michigan St
Creighton
Stanford
Arizona
Vanderbilt
Tennessee
Obviously, Maryland should move up a category following the wins over Carolina & Duke. Louisville & Vanderbilt move up as well. That leaves us with another nine spots to be decided right now. As of Monday morning, February 26th, the final nine spots go to (in no particular order)…
Georgia Tech
Villanova
Syracuse
Illinois
Texas Tech
Old Dominion
App State
Gonzaga
Alabama
…with the last teams out being:
Kansas State
Purdue
Clemson
Missouri St
Providence
Oklahoma St
Georgia
San Diego St
Keep in mind, these bids are based a full allotment being available. What I mean is there are always a few at-large spots that are essentially stolen when a team that would get in no matter what loses in its conference tournament. For example, if Butler were to lose in the Horizon conference tournament, they would require one of the at-large bids for tournament entry. Obviously, Butler is clearly a tournament team, so their inclusion would bump someone off the bubble into the NIT. This season, by my count, there are an astonishing eight such instances to keep an eye on:
Atlantic 10 – Xavier (only viable at-large candidate, bubble team at best right now)
Big South – Winthrop (bubble team right now, should make it no matter what)
CAA – Virginia Commonwealth (Old Dominion and Drexel are both knocking on the door)
Conference USA – Memphis (definitely only at-large candidate)
Horizon – Butler (currently lead by Wright St)
Southern – Davidson (App State could potentially get an at-large as well)
West Coast – Gonzaga (currently lead by Santa Clara; Gonzaga is barely in right now anyway)
WAC – Nevada (Utah St and New Mexico St are sneaking into the discussion)
Of these teams, Butler, Nevada, Memphis, Winthrop, and Gonzaga would currently be in the field even if they lost in their conference tournaments. I don’t think Gonzaga can afford a loss personally, but the other four teams should dance in my opinion. Right now, Old Dominion would also sneak in from the CAA; strangely, I’m not sure league-leading VCU would get an at-large. Of course, any major conference could have a bid stolen if a team who would not have gotten an at-large berth makes a magical run. I have a strange feeling that this may happen this year, as a number of talented teams have underachieved in multi-bid leagues. The following teams have enough talent to get hot and win their conference tournaments, but would not make the tournament otherwise: Florida St, UCONN, Providence (could still get an at-large bid), Iowa, Bradley, Wichita St, Washington & LSU. LSU scares me the most, as the Tigers have played well in a loss at Kentucky and a win versus Florida.
Now, I don’t get too much into numbers and RPI rankings and strength of schedule and all that mess. These brackets are just my opinion, mostly based on watching a lot of basketball, reading a lot about basketball, and common sense. Things will change, and I will try to post regularly my actual tracking chart of teams and conferences.
Sleepers:
Recall that I divide sleepers into two groups: first round/upset sleepers (Bucknell ‘05, Santa Clara ‘93, Weber-friggin-State ‘99, etc) and Final Four sleepers (Syracuse ’96, Arizona ’97, UNC ’00, etc). An “Upset Sleeper” must be a 12-seed or lower to qualify and a Final Four sleeper must be a 5-seed or lower.
Upset Sleepers: Long Beach State, Holy Cross, South Alabama, Xavier (if applicable)
Final Four Sleepers: Maryland, Vanderbilt, Southern Cal, UNLV
I love Long Beach State if they make the dance. Their top seven players are all seniors, they shoot a ton of threes (and shoot them quickly), and mix up their defense enough to overshadow the fact that they really are not that good defensively. This is important, because those switching defenses will be unfamiliar to their potential first-round opponent and it will take multiple possessions to adjust. However, note that they are the type of team who could come out and have a bad shooting night and get blown out as a result. And all of this, again, is only if they make the NCAA Tournament.
Of course, I also have a category called the Five to Thrive. These are five teams I think will succeed in March, regardless of seed. Doesn’t mean they’re Final Four picks, I just have a feeling they will play well in the tournament and are not getting a ton of publicity as such. Two years ago, this list included Michigan St (Final Four team). Last year’s list included LSU (also a Final Four team). And yes, that made me one out of five last year (the others were UNC, KU, Washington, and Ohio St. Ouch).
As a note, my original list, written on the back of a DORNA signage tracking sheet at a Virginia Tech women’s basketball game a month ago, included Georgetown before they started playing really well and getting hyped up. Kansas was on the same list. Both teams are now on fire and are getting hyped up by the media. Just so you know…
Vanderbilt – Spread the floor, everyone can shoot, Derrick Byers is the go-to guy. Kevin Stallings is one of the more underrated coaches in the country in my opinion, and he will have his team ready. A good matchup could see them in the Sweet 16.
Georgetown – They’re staying on my list, even though they’ll get a higher seed than I generally allow for in the Five to Thrive. Again, style of play will be key; if the Hoyas get a bad matchup, things could end early. As it is, I think they’ll be playing in at least the Sweet 16, possibly the Elite Eight, and certainly have the ability to make it to Atlanta (the site of this year’s Final Four).
Texas – no one wants to play the Horns. They are really young and playing hot basketball right now…just like Kansas was last year before they lost in the first round to Bradley and ruined brackets across the country. But, Texas is different because they have Kevin Durant. He is the entire reason alone that Texas is on this list.
UNLV – Mainly because one of the three/four Mountain West Conference teams is going to make a run of some sort, I just don’t know who. BYU is not as talented as UNLV, Air Force is playing poorly right now, and San Diego St is on the outside looking in today. UNLV is athletic, has played a tough schedule, and has a good coach in Lon Kruger.
Virginia Tech – Because I love my job. And because they have an experienced backcourt, a go-to guy in Zabian Dowdell, and can play multiple styles in the tournament. A slowdown game does not favor Tech, but the Hokies have won games in the fifties this season as well. And yes, I was going to say Maryland, but everyone on ESPN is blowing the Terps right now and I refuse to join the party.
Bonus – Xavier. Just a weird feeling. Which is probably my supper from last night, meaning Xavier will miss the tournament all together.
Final Four Contenders???:
I love Kansas. I like UCLA. I am hott for Texas A&M, but Joseph Jones keeps fouling out of games. I love Carolina as a fan, but…truth is, I don’t really know who is a Final Four Contender. Every team has a weakness in my eyes. It might be easier to say who I don’t like:
Ohio State – Greg Oden plays defense, but he is the lone Buckeye who does so on a regular basis. They did do an admirable job against Wisconsin last Sunday, but I am skeptical of their ability to do it for four straight games in the NCAA Tournament.
Wisconsin – Can’t shoot, lost Brian Butch, Kameron Taylor is too streaky. There defense will keep them in games, but they look more like a second-round upset waiting to happen than a viable national title contender.
Memphis – I don’t think anyone has an accurate gauge on Memphis because they haven’t played a really good team in three months. One of these years under Calipari, they’ll make the Final Four. I just don’t think this is the one.
Florida – teams that try to “turn it on” in March frequently lose. I’ll make a decision on the Gators based on how they play in the SEC Tournament next week. When focused, they are obviously very, very good. When distracted, they lose to LSU and Tennessee. Ugh.
Pittsburgh – just have my doubts. In fact, I don’t know of many people who really like this team’s chances. Not that they will be upset in the first round, but they look like a ho-hum Sweet 16 team.
Nevada – they are ranked in the top ten of the polls right now. However, how many voters have seen the Wolfpack play more than three times? And how many of those voters would think I meant the NC State Wolfpack in the previous sentence? That being said, Nevada just doesn’t do it for me. After all, I’ve seen them play at least twice.
There are some other teams that could make some noise: Washington St, USC, Duke, and Southern Illinois. All four have holes, but wouldn’t be a total shock. Quick problem with Duke: the Blue Devils are already playing with “March desperation”, but have still lost some games. When they win, they out-hustle other teams and just want to win more. When they lose, they still do those things, but don’t have enough talent.
Ok, that is finally enough I reckon. If I were picking a Final Four right now, it would include Kansas, UCLA, North Carolina, and Texas A&M, but obviously all of those highly-ranked teams will not make it to Atlanta. Either way, I’m in full March Madness Mode at this point. Enjoy the beginning of Championship Week, the Duke/Carolina game, the ACC Women’s Tournament, and a cold beverage.
“Baby…would you eat that there snap cracker in your special outfit for me please?”
Saturday, February 03, 2007
Super Bowl Forty One
It's Da Bears, and here's why:
1) Thomas Jones will be the MVP after running for 122yds and two TDs, as discussed with a noted Bears fan. Or he will lay an egg. I'm going with the former...
2) Because Indy cannot completely stop the run. And after Chicago has run for a while, they'll go play-action pass and make big plays. Grossman throws well when given time and openings like that, so I expect a big play or two from him.
3) Given two weeks to prepare, Chicago's defense should be able to add a wrinkle or two to confuse Manning & Co. As I told my Bears friend, the basic principles will be the same, just the disguising of the formation will differ. Look for an ugly first half with a number of three and outs, then a well-played second half. These two teams will feel each other out for a quarter or so, then play conservative for a bit, then turn it lose.
4) I'm not sold on Manning "blowing" the game for Indy. Most people who I have seen picking Chicago are saying Manning will choke or something to that effect. He will play ok, but will not have the football enough to make a huge difference.
5) Devin Hester will alter the game. Not necessarily by returning a touchdown, but by making Indy kick away from him. The Colts will gladly sacrifice ten to fifteen yards of field position in order to keep the ball away from the flash from the U.
Maybe I am picking a little bit against the norm, but in the past day or two, I have come to the conclusion that Chicago will win. I think I have predicted four Super Bowls correctly in the past five, which is a good reason for me to lose this one. But, I commend myself for actually making a selection after hedging on this game for two weeks.
Major shout-out to Grandpa, post-operation. Many prayers to you Chief. Hopefully the good Lord will give you a clean bill of health so you can get back to eating chicken at a fourteen-meals-per-week rate. This.
go Bears.
1) Thomas Jones will be the MVP after running for 122yds and two TDs, as discussed with a noted Bears fan. Or he will lay an egg. I'm going with the former...
2) Because Indy cannot completely stop the run. And after Chicago has run for a while, they'll go play-action pass and make big plays. Grossman throws well when given time and openings like that, so I expect a big play or two from him.
3) Given two weeks to prepare, Chicago's defense should be able to add a wrinkle or two to confuse Manning & Co. As I told my Bears friend, the basic principles will be the same, just the disguising of the formation will differ. Look for an ugly first half with a number of three and outs, then a well-played second half. These two teams will feel each other out for a quarter or so, then play conservative for a bit, then turn it lose.
4) I'm not sold on Manning "blowing" the game for Indy. Most people who I have seen picking Chicago are saying Manning will choke or something to that effect. He will play ok, but will not have the football enough to make a huge difference.
5) Devin Hester will alter the game. Not necessarily by returning a touchdown, but by making Indy kick away from him. The Colts will gladly sacrifice ten to fifteen yards of field position in order to keep the ball away from the flash from the U.
Maybe I am picking a little bit against the norm, but in the past day or two, I have come to the conclusion that Chicago will win. I think I have predicted four Super Bowls correctly in the past five, which is a good reason for me to lose this one. But, I commend myself for actually making a selection after hedging on this game for two weeks.
Major shout-out to Grandpa, post-operation. Many prayers to you Chief. Hopefully the good Lord will give you a clean bill of health so you can get back to eating chicken at a fourteen-meals-per-week rate. This.
go Bears.
Saturday, January 06, 2007
NFL Playoff Predictions
Ok, fine, these are really more guesses than predictions. Anyway, here we go.
NE over NY Jets
Indy over KC
Seattle over Dallas
Philly over NY Giants (shaky on this one)
SD over NE (shaky here too)
Balt over Indy (shaky here...sense the theme?)
Seattle over Chicago
NO over Philly
Balt over SD
Seattle over NO
Balt over Seattle 24-13 in Super Bowl Xtra-Large I
Thoughts:
Seattle hasn't been truly healthy all year. Therefore, I'm betting on them playing better now that they've been healthy for a little while.
Chicago is being doubted by everyone; maybe this will motivate them. However, I think their injuries on defense will weaken them too much to overcome.
NE is all over the place. I typically pick them in the playoffs, but they really haven't shown me much hopethis year. I originally picked them at SD, but changed my mind. SD's lack of experience really bothers me, and not just Rivers. We'll see though.
I am picking Baltimore by default more than anything. If they get behind to anyone early, they'll lose because the offense still isn't that good. But their defense is the most dominant unit in the playoffs, which makes a difference.
I personally prefer Chicago or NO in the NFC. The AFC has SD, I like watching Baltimore's D, and Peyton deserves to win one. Of course, America will pull for NO and rightfully so, and the Dallas and Chicago fans wil be loud as well. Hopefully it will be a fun post-season for all.
It's da name that's runnin' the game...
NE over NY Jets
Indy over KC
Seattle over Dallas
Philly over NY Giants (shaky on this one)
SD over NE (shaky here too)
Balt over Indy (shaky here...sense the theme?)
Seattle over Chicago
NO over Philly
Balt over SD
Seattle over NO
Balt over Seattle 24-13 in Super Bowl Xtra-Large I
Thoughts:
Seattle hasn't been truly healthy all year. Therefore, I'm betting on them playing better now that they've been healthy for a little while.
Chicago is being doubted by everyone; maybe this will motivate them. However, I think their injuries on defense will weaken them too much to overcome.
NE is all over the place. I typically pick them in the playoffs, but they really haven't shown me much hopethis year. I originally picked them at SD, but changed my mind. SD's lack of experience really bothers me, and not just Rivers. We'll see though.
I am picking Baltimore by default more than anything. If they get behind to anyone early, they'll lose because the offense still isn't that good. But their defense is the most dominant unit in the playoffs, which makes a difference.
I personally prefer Chicago or NO in the NFC. The AFC has SD, I like watching Baltimore's D, and Peyton deserves to win one. Of course, America will pull for NO and rightfully so, and the Dallas and Chicago fans wil be loud as well. Hopefully it will be a fun post-season for all.
It's da name that's runnin' the game...
Thursday, January 04, 2007
Bracketography
Quick pub for the NCAA website for which contributions are made:
www.bracketography.com
New article up on my former employer univeristy, the Clemson Tigers. IPTAY for life.
www.bracketography.com
New article up on my former employer univeristy, the Clemson Tigers. IPTAY for life.
Wednesday, January 03, 2007
This is what I think about...
Nick Saban.
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/columns/story?columnist=forde_pat&id=2718798
In fact, Alabama, long the prototype program for much of what is wrong with college football), may now be among my bottom five teams. But, I will not cast a stone out my glass house, as the new head coach of my alma mater is mentioned in Forde's article for very similar transgressions. Therefore:
Dear Butch Davis:
Please do not leave North Carolina until you retire with four national titles.
Love,
Me.
More on my letter to Butch coming up later.
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/columns/story?columnist=forde_pat&id=2718798
In fact, Alabama, long the prototype program for much of what is wrong with college football), may now be among my bottom five teams. But, I will not cast a stone out my glass house, as the new head coach of my alma mater is mentioned in Forde's article for very similar transgressions. Therefore:
Dear Butch Davis:
Please do not leave North Carolina until you retire with four national titles.
Love,
Me.
More on my letter to Butch coming up later.
Wednesday, December 20, 2006
Shocker
Well, well, well...look who decided to actually post something on his blog. The Pensington Bone, the Winchester Rifle, the Phi Alpha Gamma co-founder has returned. Let me tell you, the working world really does not allow for much time with such nonsense as regularly updating a blog, even one with as devoted a readership as The Blue Team. Devoted to what, I don't know, but you readers as surely all devoted to something. Combine a busy schedule with no internet at my living quarters and you get no posting for three months. After enduring many complaints and much frustration, I decided to post something.
So quickly, let's hit ten topics that I have something to say about.
1. The BCS. Sucks. After defending it for a few years, I've nearly given up. College football's method of deciding a national champion has long been a joke. AP voters, coaches poll voters, the Bowl Alliance, the BCS...it's all the same. None crown a champion without controversy. The BCS is indeed the most effective of the aforementioned systems, but that does not mean it gets the job done. I'm not sure a "Plus One" system is perfect, but at least it's better than this. Try it and in five years (after it's failed at least three times), then move to a playoff. It's just ridiculous when every other sport of relevance has a post-season tournament.
2. AI. Allen Iverson has a new home. My affection for Denver's players just grew even more. I've been riding the Nuggets bandwagon since they drafted Carmelo (and debuted those still-snazzy unis. I'm a sucker for various shades of powder blue). Now they're adding one of my favorite guys to watch in Iverson. I'm concerned long-term about the Nuggs ability to defend on the perimeter (Iverson, JR Smith, and Anthony...not an All-NBA defensive squad) and lack of quality post players, but they are an improved team nonetheless. There comes a point when a team maximizes it's ceiling for contention and Denver had reached that. They were headed to the playoffs again and would, at best, lose in the Western Conference Semi-Finals. When you get to the point that your team can get no better with the players it has, combined with contracts locking you into your foundation players, then it's time to make some changes and take some risks. If you improve, great. If you get worse, it's really not that big of a deal because you weren't going to win the whole thing anyway. Memphis Grizzlies, take notes. LA Clippers, you too.
3. My Carolina Panthers are abysmal. Yes, I picked them to play in the Super Bowl. For the first time in forever, I drank the hype machine kool-aid on a team I pull for. Normally, I downplay the ability to contend for any team I am a true fan of (see Tar Heels, North Carolina, 2004-2005). However, the Panthers looked to be the best NFC team on paper. When healthy, they're still pretty close to that. But sometimes, one bad loss or general bad karma mess up a season. The NFL is the sport most affected by momentum, motivation, and psyche to me because there are only sixteen games in the regular season. The playoffs are a bit of a different story, but in the regular season, a team can just catch a good vibe early on and ride it out. The opposite happened the Carolina. From the season-opening loss to Atlanta, something just felt bad. Certainly the loss at Minnesota is week two furthered that thought. Yes, there is an ebb and flow to every team's season. However, sometimes it's just not your year. New Orleans caught the fever early and has prolonged it to clinching a playoff berth. To me, this is a major reason for the parity in the NFL.
4. Big picture NFL. Everyone has question marks. I can't remember a recent season that there was not a prohibitive favorite entering the playoffs in either league. The Chargers are solid, but they still have a first-year starter at QB. Baltimore has no consistent offense. Chicago is banged up on defense and shaky on offense. Dallas' pass defense is weak. New Orleans is inexperienced. New England is great at times and horrible at times, as is Indianapolis. Everyone else is just inconsistent and flawed in multiple facets. A total crapshoot as far as I am concerned.
5. NCAA Hoops. Finally in full swing, with the conference season right around the corner. UCLA is still unbeaten and has impressed me thus far. Certainly a Final Four contender, even a favorite, at this point. Florida is just hanging out, waiting to turn it on and trying to get healthy. Ohio State is improving by every second closer to "fully healthy" that Greg Oden gets. Wichita State, Butler, and Gonzaga lead the "mid-major" league teams, all with many quality non-conference wins early on.
6. Duke. Overrated. Enough said. Well, maybe not. Currently ranked sixth in the nation, the Blue Devils are vastly overrated. Like hugely. As in, gigantically overrated. This is maybe a top-20 team right now. However, they keep winning. Coach K is just unbelievable. It's like he listened all year last year to how good a job Roy Williams was doing down the road and decided to one-up him this year. Speaking of Roy...
7. Carolina Basketball. This could be a column unto itself and probably will be at some point. First, the bad. Extremely young still. The intangible of playing with desperation is so important in the NCAA Tournament. Last year's team had five new players who didn't understand the finality of losing in the NCAA Tournament until it happened. It so upset Tyler Hansbrough that he sat motionless, jersey on, for five minutes following the upset loss to George Mason. Ok, so Psycho T gets it now. But Ty, Brandan, Wayne, etc haven't been there yet. Communicating to these young players that the effort and "I must win this game or else I don't get to play again" mentaility must be there in March. And yes, I'm worried about March already. Because honestly, the regular season just isn't going to matter that much with this team. The Heels plays at Duke, BC, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Virginia Tech, and Clemson, all teams capable of making the NCAA Tournament. Also, a road game with NC State. And of course, the trip to Arizona at the end of January. All that being said, the team should finish the regular season with no more than six total losses, and probably more like four. Winning at Arizona will be tough, and the three road games at the end of February will produce much worriation. However, this team's goal is to win its last game in April.
8. Carolina Basketball. The Good. Wayne Ellington is way, way, way better than I envisioned. Carolina hasn't had a shooter like this since Joe Forte (shudder). Rashad McCants was a terrific shooter, but was much more of a scorer, posting up, finishing strong on the break, and driving to the basket. I got frustrated with Rashad when he just stood outside the arc and shot three balls all day. But Ellington's shot is great, especially mid-range. He also has the ability to get to the basket and finish, which hopefully can be applied when he has a poor shooting game in the NCAA Tournament (because it will happen, it always does). Ty Lawson has improved greatly from the first game. I'm interested to see how Bobby Frasor fits into this system when he gets healthy. Marcus Ginyard's defense is unbelievable, something that can be relied on every night. However, he and Danny Green do so many other little things to help this team out. Putbacks, running the break, rotating on defense, etc. Brandan Wright is channeling Sam Perkins (yes, I took the easy way out by comparing the two smooth, long lefties like everyone and their brother does) which is a very good thing. He needs to body up better on rebounds, but his loooooong arms help compensate. He will get pushed around in the ACC though by guys like Ogsy, Costner, and the three non-offensive, bulky, near-henchmen at UVA. Tyler Hansbrough...I'm not even going to bother.
9. Carolina Basketball. The Eh. Wes Miller has not contributed much of anything offensively. This is only a problem because I like him a lot and there will be a game that we need him to hit shots. He will. Ultimately, as long as Frasor recovers quickly from his injuries, Miller will not play a lot of crucial minutes. Quentin Thomas is still out and will not factor into the rotation this season. Unfortunate, but not tough to see coming. Reyshawn Terry...sometimes I want to kill him, sometimes I want to hug him. He's playing better recently, but it's only because of open looks. Please drive to the basket. Please. And play defense. Please. Thanks.
10. Carolina Basketball. Two years from now. In two years, Hansbrough & Wright will be gone. Heck, they could be gone in four months. Let's just hope with a national title. Anyway, while I don't want Deon Thompson and Alex Stepheson as the starting lineup next year, I'm not opposed to it in two years. Stepheson is basically what I thought he'd be: solid frame, good rebounder, limited offensively, plays hard. Not a superstar, but he'll be fine and there aren't many times that I feel uncomfortable with him in the lineup. Now for Deon Thompson. There will come a point in two years or so that Carolina will be on ESPN against a ranked opponent. Let's say Duke, who should be good in two years. Ok, they'll be nasty in two years. Anyway, for a stretch of the game, the Carolina point guard (Lawson, Frasor, Larry Drew Jr maybe? Let's hope the first one) will throw Deon the ball in the post and he will score. Then he'll score on a putback. Then he'll hit a baby hook. Then he'll steal the ball, run the floor trailing our super-fast point guard, get the ball dumped off to him in the lane, and slam home a furious two-handed dunk. And the following will take place:
"Oooohhh America, are you serious?!? Neon Deon is amazing!!! He was a diaper dandy, but now he's the Big Man on Campus!!! Ohhhh!!! The aircraft carrier!!! Oooohh!! America!!!! North Carolina!!!!"
At that point, Dickie V might actually levitate. The point is, Thompson will never be spectacular. But, he will be a force inside on the offensive end. Think Elton Brand more than Sean May. Either way, the result will be the same. I'm big on this guy. Turnin' up the Deon Thompson Kool-Aid and chugging it.
Ok, so I cheated. I really only talked about a few topics. Oh well, at least I posted something. Niiice.
Merry Christmas to everyone. All I want for Christmas is you.
So quickly, let's hit ten topics that I have something to say about.
1. The BCS. Sucks. After defending it for a few years, I've nearly given up. College football's method of deciding a national champion has long been a joke. AP voters, coaches poll voters, the Bowl Alliance, the BCS...it's all the same. None crown a champion without controversy. The BCS is indeed the most effective of the aforementioned systems, but that does not mean it gets the job done. I'm not sure a "Plus One" system is perfect, but at least it's better than this. Try it and in five years (after it's failed at least three times), then move to a playoff. It's just ridiculous when every other sport of relevance has a post-season tournament.
2. AI. Allen Iverson has a new home. My affection for Denver's players just grew even more. I've been riding the Nuggets bandwagon since they drafted Carmelo (and debuted those still-snazzy unis. I'm a sucker for various shades of powder blue). Now they're adding one of my favorite guys to watch in Iverson. I'm concerned long-term about the Nuggs ability to defend on the perimeter (Iverson, JR Smith, and Anthony...not an All-NBA defensive squad) and lack of quality post players, but they are an improved team nonetheless. There comes a point when a team maximizes it's ceiling for contention and Denver had reached that. They were headed to the playoffs again and would, at best, lose in the Western Conference Semi-Finals. When you get to the point that your team can get no better with the players it has, combined with contracts locking you into your foundation players, then it's time to make some changes and take some risks. If you improve, great. If you get worse, it's really not that big of a deal because you weren't going to win the whole thing anyway. Memphis Grizzlies, take notes. LA Clippers, you too.
3. My Carolina Panthers are abysmal. Yes, I picked them to play in the Super Bowl. For the first time in forever, I drank the hype machine kool-aid on a team I pull for. Normally, I downplay the ability to contend for any team I am a true fan of (see Tar Heels, North Carolina, 2004-2005). However, the Panthers looked to be the best NFC team on paper. When healthy, they're still pretty close to that. But sometimes, one bad loss or general bad karma mess up a season. The NFL is the sport most affected by momentum, motivation, and psyche to me because there are only sixteen games in the regular season. The playoffs are a bit of a different story, but in the regular season, a team can just catch a good vibe early on and ride it out. The opposite happened the Carolina. From the season-opening loss to Atlanta, something just felt bad. Certainly the loss at Minnesota is week two furthered that thought. Yes, there is an ebb and flow to every team's season. However, sometimes it's just not your year. New Orleans caught the fever early and has prolonged it to clinching a playoff berth. To me, this is a major reason for the parity in the NFL.
4. Big picture NFL. Everyone has question marks. I can't remember a recent season that there was not a prohibitive favorite entering the playoffs in either league. The Chargers are solid, but they still have a first-year starter at QB. Baltimore has no consistent offense. Chicago is banged up on defense and shaky on offense. Dallas' pass defense is weak. New Orleans is inexperienced. New England is great at times and horrible at times, as is Indianapolis. Everyone else is just inconsistent and flawed in multiple facets. A total crapshoot as far as I am concerned.
5. NCAA Hoops. Finally in full swing, with the conference season right around the corner. UCLA is still unbeaten and has impressed me thus far. Certainly a Final Four contender, even a favorite, at this point. Florida is just hanging out, waiting to turn it on and trying to get healthy. Ohio State is improving by every second closer to "fully healthy" that Greg Oden gets. Wichita State, Butler, and Gonzaga lead the "mid-major" league teams, all with many quality non-conference wins early on.
6. Duke. Overrated. Enough said. Well, maybe not. Currently ranked sixth in the nation, the Blue Devils are vastly overrated. Like hugely. As in, gigantically overrated. This is maybe a top-20 team right now. However, they keep winning. Coach K is just unbelievable. It's like he listened all year last year to how good a job Roy Williams was doing down the road and decided to one-up him this year. Speaking of Roy...
7. Carolina Basketball. This could be a column unto itself and probably will be at some point. First, the bad. Extremely young still. The intangible of playing with desperation is so important in the NCAA Tournament. Last year's team had five new players who didn't understand the finality of losing in the NCAA Tournament until it happened. It so upset Tyler Hansbrough that he sat motionless, jersey on, for five minutes following the upset loss to George Mason. Ok, so Psycho T gets it now. But Ty, Brandan, Wayne, etc haven't been there yet. Communicating to these young players that the effort and "I must win this game or else I don't get to play again" mentaility must be there in March. And yes, I'm worried about March already. Because honestly, the regular season just isn't going to matter that much with this team. The Heels plays at Duke, BC, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Virginia Tech, and Clemson, all teams capable of making the NCAA Tournament. Also, a road game with NC State. And of course, the trip to Arizona at the end of January. All that being said, the team should finish the regular season with no more than six total losses, and probably more like four. Winning at Arizona will be tough, and the three road games at the end of February will produce much worriation. However, this team's goal is to win its last game in April.
8. Carolina Basketball. The Good. Wayne Ellington is way, way, way better than I envisioned. Carolina hasn't had a shooter like this since Joe Forte (shudder). Rashad McCants was a terrific shooter, but was much more of a scorer, posting up, finishing strong on the break, and driving to the basket. I got frustrated with Rashad when he just stood outside the arc and shot three balls all day. But Ellington's shot is great, especially mid-range. He also has the ability to get to the basket and finish, which hopefully can be applied when he has a poor shooting game in the NCAA Tournament (because it will happen, it always does). Ty Lawson has improved greatly from the first game. I'm interested to see how Bobby Frasor fits into this system when he gets healthy. Marcus Ginyard's defense is unbelievable, something that can be relied on every night. However, he and Danny Green do so many other little things to help this team out. Putbacks, running the break, rotating on defense, etc. Brandan Wright is channeling Sam Perkins (yes, I took the easy way out by comparing the two smooth, long lefties like everyone and their brother does) which is a very good thing. He needs to body up better on rebounds, but his loooooong arms help compensate. He will get pushed around in the ACC though by guys like Ogsy, Costner, and the three non-offensive, bulky, near-henchmen at UVA. Tyler Hansbrough...I'm not even going to bother.
9. Carolina Basketball. The Eh. Wes Miller has not contributed much of anything offensively. This is only a problem because I like him a lot and there will be a game that we need him to hit shots. He will. Ultimately, as long as Frasor recovers quickly from his injuries, Miller will not play a lot of crucial minutes. Quentin Thomas is still out and will not factor into the rotation this season. Unfortunate, but not tough to see coming. Reyshawn Terry...sometimes I want to kill him, sometimes I want to hug him. He's playing better recently, but it's only because of open looks. Please drive to the basket. Please. And play defense. Please. Thanks.
10. Carolina Basketball. Two years from now. In two years, Hansbrough & Wright will be gone. Heck, they could be gone in four months. Let's just hope with a national title. Anyway, while I don't want Deon Thompson and Alex Stepheson as the starting lineup next year, I'm not opposed to it in two years. Stepheson is basically what I thought he'd be: solid frame, good rebounder, limited offensively, plays hard. Not a superstar, but he'll be fine and there aren't many times that I feel uncomfortable with him in the lineup. Now for Deon Thompson. There will come a point in two years or so that Carolina will be on ESPN against a ranked opponent. Let's say Duke, who should be good in two years. Ok, they'll be nasty in two years. Anyway, for a stretch of the game, the Carolina point guard (Lawson, Frasor, Larry Drew Jr maybe? Let's hope the first one) will throw Deon the ball in the post and he will score. Then he'll score on a putback. Then he'll hit a baby hook. Then he'll steal the ball, run the floor trailing our super-fast point guard, get the ball dumped off to him in the lane, and slam home a furious two-handed dunk. And the following will take place:
"Oooohhh America, are you serious?!? Neon Deon is amazing!!! He was a diaper dandy, but now he's the Big Man on Campus!!! Ohhhh!!! The aircraft carrier!!! Oooohh!! America!!!! North Carolina!!!!"
At that point, Dickie V might actually levitate. The point is, Thompson will never be spectacular. But, he will be a force inside on the offensive end. Think Elton Brand more than Sean May. Either way, the result will be the same. I'm big on this guy. Turnin' up the Deon Thompson Kool-Aid and chugging it.
Ok, so I cheated. I really only talked about a few topics. Oh well, at least I posted something. Niiice.
Merry Christmas to everyone. All I want for Christmas is you.
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