Let’s cover a few college basketball related items before we get into discussing the NCAA Tournament (editor’s note: most of this blog was typed Sunday night, then somehow put off until Thursday morning for posting. What can I say, I suck at life).
First, the National Player of the Year debate will heat up soon. I’m here to say that Kevin Durant should win it, period. Without Durant, Texas is fighting to be included in the Big Dance. With him, they’re a 3-5 seed, competing with Kansas to win the Big 12 regular season title, while starting four freshmen and a sophomore. Alando Tucker of Wisconsin is a lovely player, a senior who’s stuck around (more because he’s a 6-5 small forward than he loves college that much) and is leading the Badgers to a memorable season. But, he’s not the best player in the country. Neither are Tyler Hansbrough, Aaron Brooks, anyone on Florida, nor Greg Oden (please, he shouldn’t be in the discussion). The only player I could see an argument for is Acie Law IV of Texas A&M. He’s the definition of clutch, leading the Aggies to their best season ever. Need proof? Find a tape of last night’s epic battle with the above-mentioned Longhorns of Texas, where Law IV made two tying three-pointers to extend the game. Better yet, according to Tom Brennan of ESPN, Law IV is outscoring the opposition in the last four minutes of games by himself. Read that again. Sunk in yet? For a term that is thrown around far too often, that is truly a clutch player right there. But, I’m still giving the nod to Durant. You’ve probably heard enough about him by now, so I’ll save all the statistics to back it up. If you want to argue though, just look at his numbers and call me later.
Second, the ACC Player of the Year picture is a little cloudier. Jared Dudley looked like a runaway winner until last week. I’m not certain that Dudley can win the award now, with the recent slide for BC combined with the general bias of the voters on Tobacco Road. However, only Tyler Hansbrough and Josh McRoberts are candidates in that area, and McRoberts is a big stretch. Al Thornton is probably the best player in the league, but he’s buried on a nearly-dead Florida St team. That leaves us with the UVA guards, Singletary and Reynolds, and Virginia Tech guard Zabian Dowdell. Personally, I feel the UVA guards will cancel out votes. Neither is more important or consistently better than the other. That leaves us with Dowdell. Obviously, I am quite biased since I work at Virginia Tech and watch him every night. That being said, I would vote for Dowdell. He is completely vital to Virginia Tech’s success. If the Hokies end up tying for or winning outright the ACC Regular Season championship, then he has to at least be considered. At this point, I say it’s a three player race between Dowdell, Dudley, and Hansbrough.
Third, the Tar Heels. I should caution you, the reader, that I’m typing this incredibly rare blog entry within two hours of the loss at Maryland. So yes, I’m ramming my head into a wall right now. But, far prior to this evening, I’ve come to a conclusion on this team. Think back to 1986, 1995, or 1997 for a reference point, because those are the comparable teams to this one. The ’86 team was very, very good and more experienced than this team, but just didn’t have the killer instinct. The 1995 team was extremely talented, but lacked a vocal leader and defensive stopper. The 1997 team was shaky for half the season, but got hot and road a winning streak into a tie for the ACC Regular Season title, won the ACC Tournament, and flamed out in the Final Four with poor shooting and the inability to maintain a lead. What’s the comparison? All of these teams lacked the ability to successfully go for the kill.
I came to my conclusion during the loss earlier this season at NC State, a less-talented opponent rolling on emotion. Carolina failed to get a big stop, took bad shots, and let State hang in the game. The same thing happened against Virginia Tech at home and again Sunday night against Maryland (minus the bad shots). To me, that reveals two related problems. First, there are times this team does not understand how desperate an opponent is playing. My biggest concern entering the season was that come March, this team would not understand the intensity it takes and the desperation it takes to win. Lose, your season is over. This comes largely from leaders on the team communicating this fact to freshmen who have never experienced it. Obviously this problem still exists (leadership has been shaky, no matter what people have said).
Second, the Tar Heels have an inability to shoot someone execution style. Viewers of any television drama involving Jack Bauer know how many times he has been on the brink of death, but escaped. How many would-be killers are going to put him on his knees, hold a gun to his head, and launch into a five minute monologue about the past, what they did, why they did it, only to see Jack escape and kill them? That is exactly what this team has done this season in its three most-recent losses. The bad guy was down, you are ready to kill him, and you somehow blow it. Carolina doesn’t go for the kill nearly enough and succeed. Yes, it was done at Boston College. Yes, the foot never came off the gas at Clemson. And yes, this team won at Duke in a tough environment. But it has not been consistent and I do not think it will suddenly become a collective assassin in the NCAA Tournament. Can they? Certainly. Will they? Don’t get your hopes up. I’m certainly not.
Ok, on to the real discussion of the upcoming Selection Sunday festivities. For the first time in a while (I’m too lazy to see how long “a while” is), Selection Sunday is the same day as 311 Day. I will celebrate by listening to 311 all day long while watching basketball and editing my bracket. While I’d love to have to pause my CD player during the ACC Tournament final (pending a Carolina appearance), I doubt that will be an issue (see above paragraphs). I will be ending celebrations a bit early that evening because I fly out the following Monday to beautiful Pittsburgh (sarcasm, sarcasm) for a three day sales training academy. Surely I will not be looking at brackets on this trip, right?
Entering the season of brackets, three main topics come up: who are the real contenders for the Final Four/National Title, who are the sleeper teams, and who is on the bubble. In reverse order:
Bubble: Currently, I have 47 tournament bids in “lock” status. This includes the 31 automatic bids that go to league champions, plus 16 at-large bids. Here are those teams:
Automatic Bids (current conference leaders) –
America East
Vermont
A-10
Xavier
ACC
Carolina
Atlantic Sun
ETSU
Big East
Pittsburgh
Big 12
Kansas
Big Sky
Weber St
Big South
Winthrop
Big Ten
Ohio State
Big West
Long Beach St
CAA
Virginia Commonwealth
C-USA
Memphis
Horizon
Wright St
Ivy
Penn
MAAC
Marist
Mid-Con
Oral Roberts
Mid-American
Toledo
MEAC
Delaware St
Missouri Valley
Southern Illinois
Mountain West
BYU
NEC
Cen Conn State
Ohio Valley
Austin Peay
Pac-10
UCLA
Patriot
Holy Cross
SEC
Florida
Southern
Davidson
Southland
A&M C-C
SWAC
Jackson St
Sun Belt
South Alabama
West Coast
Santa Clara
WAC
Nevada
The sixteen at-large spots that are, in my opinion, locks:
Duke
Carolina
UVA
Boston College
Georgetown
Marquette
Wisconsin
Texas A&M
Texas
Washington St
Oregon
Southern Cal
Kentucky
Butler
Air Force
UNLV
That leaves 18 at-large spots to be decided. Of these 18 spots, nine teams started out the week on my bubble, but are currently solidly “in” the tournament. These 9 teams would have to do something drastically bad to not make the Big Dance. They are:
Maryland
Louisville
Notre Dame
Michigan St
Creighton
Stanford
Arizona
Vanderbilt
Tennessee
Obviously, Maryland should move up a category following the wins over Carolina & Duke. Louisville & Vanderbilt move up as well. That leaves us with another nine spots to be decided right now. As of Monday morning, February 26th, the final nine spots go to (in no particular order)…
Georgia Tech
Villanova
Syracuse
Illinois
Texas Tech
Old Dominion
App State
Gonzaga
Alabama
…with the last teams out being:
Kansas State
Purdue
Clemson
Missouri St
Providence
Oklahoma St
Georgia
San Diego St
Keep in mind, these bids are based a full allotment being available. What I mean is there are always a few at-large spots that are essentially stolen when a team that would get in no matter what loses in its conference tournament. For example, if Butler were to lose in the Horizon conference tournament, they would require one of the at-large bids for tournament entry. Obviously, Butler is clearly a tournament team, so their inclusion would bump someone off the bubble into the NIT. This season, by my count, there are an astonishing eight such instances to keep an eye on:
Atlantic 10 – Xavier (only viable at-large candidate, bubble team at best right now)
Big South – Winthrop (bubble team right now, should make it no matter what)
CAA – Virginia Commonwealth (Old Dominion and Drexel are both knocking on the door)
Conference USA – Memphis (definitely only at-large candidate)
Horizon – Butler (currently lead by Wright St)
Southern – Davidson (App State could potentially get an at-large as well)
West Coast – Gonzaga (currently lead by Santa Clara; Gonzaga is barely in right now anyway)
WAC – Nevada (Utah St and New Mexico St are sneaking into the discussion)
Of these teams, Butler, Nevada, Memphis, Winthrop, and Gonzaga would currently be in the field even if they lost in their conference tournaments. I don’t think Gonzaga can afford a loss personally, but the other four teams should dance in my opinion. Right now, Old Dominion would also sneak in from the CAA; strangely, I’m not sure league-leading VCU would get an at-large. Of course, any major conference could have a bid stolen if a team who would not have gotten an at-large berth makes a magical run. I have a strange feeling that this may happen this year, as a number of talented teams have underachieved in multi-bid leagues. The following teams have enough talent to get hot and win their conference tournaments, but would not make the tournament otherwise: Florida St, UCONN, Providence (could still get an at-large bid), Iowa, Bradley, Wichita St, Washington & LSU. LSU scares me the most, as the Tigers have played well in a loss at Kentucky and a win versus Florida.
Now, I don’t get too much into numbers and RPI rankings and strength of schedule and all that mess. These brackets are just my opinion, mostly based on watching a lot of basketball, reading a lot about basketball, and common sense. Things will change, and I will try to post regularly my actual tracking chart of teams and conferences.
Sleepers:
Recall that I divide sleepers into two groups: first round/upset sleepers (Bucknell ‘05, Santa Clara ‘93, Weber-friggin-State ‘99, etc) and Final Four sleepers (Syracuse ’96, Arizona ’97, UNC ’00, etc). An “Upset Sleeper” must be a 12-seed or lower to qualify and a Final Four sleeper must be a 5-seed or lower.
Upset Sleepers: Long Beach State, Holy Cross, South Alabama, Xavier (if applicable)
Final Four Sleepers: Maryland, Vanderbilt, Southern Cal, UNLV
I love Long Beach State if they make the dance. Their top seven players are all seniors, they shoot a ton of threes (and shoot them quickly), and mix up their defense enough to overshadow the fact that they really are not that good defensively. This is important, because those switching defenses will be unfamiliar to their potential first-round opponent and it will take multiple possessions to adjust. However, note that they are the type of team who could come out and have a bad shooting night and get blown out as a result. And all of this, again, is only if they make the NCAA Tournament.
Of course, I also have a category called the Five to Thrive. These are five teams I think will succeed in March, regardless of seed. Doesn’t mean they’re Final Four picks, I just have a feeling they will play well in the tournament and are not getting a ton of publicity as such. Two years ago, this list included Michigan St (Final Four team). Last year’s list included LSU (also a Final Four team). And yes, that made me one out of five last year (the others were UNC, KU, Washington, and Ohio St. Ouch).
As a note, my original list, written on the back of a DORNA signage tracking sheet at a Virginia Tech women’s basketball game a month ago, included Georgetown before they started playing really well and getting hyped up. Kansas was on the same list. Both teams are now on fire and are getting hyped up by the media. Just so you know…
Vanderbilt – Spread the floor, everyone can shoot, Derrick Byers is the go-to guy. Kevin Stallings is one of the more underrated coaches in the country in my opinion, and he will have his team ready. A good matchup could see them in the Sweet 16.
Georgetown – They’re staying on my list, even though they’ll get a higher seed than I generally allow for in the Five to Thrive. Again, style of play will be key; if the Hoyas get a bad matchup, things could end early. As it is, I think they’ll be playing in at least the Sweet 16, possibly the Elite Eight, and certainly have the ability to make it to Atlanta (the site of this year’s Final Four).
Texas – no one wants to play the Horns. They are really young and playing hot basketball right now…just like Kansas was last year before they lost in the first round to Bradley and ruined brackets across the country. But, Texas is different because they have Kevin Durant. He is the entire reason alone that Texas is on this list.
UNLV – Mainly because one of the three/four Mountain West Conference teams is going to make a run of some sort, I just don’t know who. BYU is not as talented as UNLV, Air Force is playing poorly right now, and San Diego St is on the outside looking in today. UNLV is athletic, has played a tough schedule, and has a good coach in Lon Kruger.
Virginia Tech – Because I love my job. And because they have an experienced backcourt, a go-to guy in Zabian Dowdell, and can play multiple styles in the tournament. A slowdown game does not favor Tech, but the Hokies have won games in the fifties this season as well. And yes, I was going to say Maryland, but everyone on ESPN is blowing the Terps right now and I refuse to join the party.
Bonus – Xavier. Just a weird feeling. Which is probably my supper from last night, meaning Xavier will miss the tournament all together.
Final Four Contenders???:
I love Kansas. I like UCLA. I am hott for Texas A&M, but Joseph Jones keeps fouling out of games. I love Carolina as a fan, but…truth is, I don’t really know who is a Final Four Contender. Every team has a weakness in my eyes. It might be easier to say who I don’t like:
Ohio State – Greg Oden plays defense, but he is the lone Buckeye who does so on a regular basis. They did do an admirable job against Wisconsin last Sunday, but I am skeptical of their ability to do it for four straight games in the NCAA Tournament.
Wisconsin – Can’t shoot, lost Brian Butch, Kameron Taylor is too streaky. There defense will keep them in games, but they look more like a second-round upset waiting to happen than a viable national title contender.
Memphis – I don’t think anyone has an accurate gauge on Memphis because they haven’t played a really good team in three months. One of these years under Calipari, they’ll make the Final Four. I just don’t think this is the one.
Florida – teams that try to “turn it on” in March frequently lose. I’ll make a decision on the Gators based on how they play in the SEC Tournament next week. When focused, they are obviously very, very good. When distracted, they lose to LSU and Tennessee. Ugh.
Pittsburgh – just have my doubts. In fact, I don’t know of many people who really like this team’s chances. Not that they will be upset in the first round, but they look like a ho-hum Sweet 16 team.
Nevada – they are ranked in the top ten of the polls right now. However, how many voters have seen the Wolfpack play more than three times? And how many of those voters would think I meant the NC State Wolfpack in the previous sentence? That being said, Nevada just doesn’t do it for me. After all, I’ve seen them play at least twice.
There are some other teams that could make some noise: Washington St, USC, Duke, and Southern Illinois. All four have holes, but wouldn’t be a total shock. Quick problem with Duke: the Blue Devils are already playing with “March desperation”, but have still lost some games. When they win, they out-hustle other teams and just want to win more. When they lose, they still do those things, but don’t have enough talent.
Ok, that is finally enough I reckon. If I were picking a Final Four right now, it would include Kansas, UCLA, North Carolina, and Texas A&M, but obviously all of those highly-ranked teams will not make it to Atlanta. Either way, I’m in full March Madness Mode at this point. Enjoy the beginning of Championship Week, the Duke/Carolina game, the ACC Women’s Tournament, and a cold beverage.
“Baby…would you eat that there snap cracker in your special outfit for me please?”
Thursday, March 01, 2007
Saturday, February 03, 2007
Super Bowl Forty One
It's Da Bears, and here's why:
1) Thomas Jones will be the MVP after running for 122yds and two TDs, as discussed with a noted Bears fan. Or he will lay an egg. I'm going with the former...
2) Because Indy cannot completely stop the run. And after Chicago has run for a while, they'll go play-action pass and make big plays. Grossman throws well when given time and openings like that, so I expect a big play or two from him.
3) Given two weeks to prepare, Chicago's defense should be able to add a wrinkle or two to confuse Manning & Co. As I told my Bears friend, the basic principles will be the same, just the disguising of the formation will differ. Look for an ugly first half with a number of three and outs, then a well-played second half. These two teams will feel each other out for a quarter or so, then play conservative for a bit, then turn it lose.
4) I'm not sold on Manning "blowing" the game for Indy. Most people who I have seen picking Chicago are saying Manning will choke or something to that effect. He will play ok, but will not have the football enough to make a huge difference.
5) Devin Hester will alter the game. Not necessarily by returning a touchdown, but by making Indy kick away from him. The Colts will gladly sacrifice ten to fifteen yards of field position in order to keep the ball away from the flash from the U.
Maybe I am picking a little bit against the norm, but in the past day or two, I have come to the conclusion that Chicago will win. I think I have predicted four Super Bowls correctly in the past five, which is a good reason for me to lose this one. But, I commend myself for actually making a selection after hedging on this game for two weeks.
Major shout-out to Grandpa, post-operation. Many prayers to you Chief. Hopefully the good Lord will give you a clean bill of health so you can get back to eating chicken at a fourteen-meals-per-week rate. This.
go Bears.
1) Thomas Jones will be the MVP after running for 122yds and two TDs, as discussed with a noted Bears fan. Or he will lay an egg. I'm going with the former...
2) Because Indy cannot completely stop the run. And after Chicago has run for a while, they'll go play-action pass and make big plays. Grossman throws well when given time and openings like that, so I expect a big play or two from him.
3) Given two weeks to prepare, Chicago's defense should be able to add a wrinkle or two to confuse Manning & Co. As I told my Bears friend, the basic principles will be the same, just the disguising of the formation will differ. Look for an ugly first half with a number of three and outs, then a well-played second half. These two teams will feel each other out for a quarter or so, then play conservative for a bit, then turn it lose.
4) I'm not sold on Manning "blowing" the game for Indy. Most people who I have seen picking Chicago are saying Manning will choke or something to that effect. He will play ok, but will not have the football enough to make a huge difference.
5) Devin Hester will alter the game. Not necessarily by returning a touchdown, but by making Indy kick away from him. The Colts will gladly sacrifice ten to fifteen yards of field position in order to keep the ball away from the flash from the U.
Maybe I am picking a little bit against the norm, but in the past day or two, I have come to the conclusion that Chicago will win. I think I have predicted four Super Bowls correctly in the past five, which is a good reason for me to lose this one. But, I commend myself for actually making a selection after hedging on this game for two weeks.
Major shout-out to Grandpa, post-operation. Many prayers to you Chief. Hopefully the good Lord will give you a clean bill of health so you can get back to eating chicken at a fourteen-meals-per-week rate. This.
go Bears.
Saturday, January 06, 2007
NFL Playoff Predictions
Ok, fine, these are really more guesses than predictions. Anyway, here we go.
NE over NY Jets
Indy over KC
Seattle over Dallas
Philly over NY Giants (shaky on this one)
SD over NE (shaky here too)
Balt over Indy (shaky here...sense the theme?)
Seattle over Chicago
NO over Philly
Balt over SD
Seattle over NO
Balt over Seattle 24-13 in Super Bowl Xtra-Large I
Thoughts:
Seattle hasn't been truly healthy all year. Therefore, I'm betting on them playing better now that they've been healthy for a little while.
Chicago is being doubted by everyone; maybe this will motivate them. However, I think their injuries on defense will weaken them too much to overcome.
NE is all over the place. I typically pick them in the playoffs, but they really haven't shown me much hopethis year. I originally picked them at SD, but changed my mind. SD's lack of experience really bothers me, and not just Rivers. We'll see though.
I am picking Baltimore by default more than anything. If they get behind to anyone early, they'll lose because the offense still isn't that good. But their defense is the most dominant unit in the playoffs, which makes a difference.
I personally prefer Chicago or NO in the NFC. The AFC has SD, I like watching Baltimore's D, and Peyton deserves to win one. Of course, America will pull for NO and rightfully so, and the Dallas and Chicago fans wil be loud as well. Hopefully it will be a fun post-season for all.
It's da name that's runnin' the game...
NE over NY Jets
Indy over KC
Seattle over Dallas
Philly over NY Giants (shaky on this one)
SD over NE (shaky here too)
Balt over Indy (shaky here...sense the theme?)
Seattle over Chicago
NO over Philly
Balt over SD
Seattle over NO
Balt over Seattle 24-13 in Super Bowl Xtra-Large I
Thoughts:
Seattle hasn't been truly healthy all year. Therefore, I'm betting on them playing better now that they've been healthy for a little while.
Chicago is being doubted by everyone; maybe this will motivate them. However, I think their injuries on defense will weaken them too much to overcome.
NE is all over the place. I typically pick them in the playoffs, but they really haven't shown me much hopethis year. I originally picked them at SD, but changed my mind. SD's lack of experience really bothers me, and not just Rivers. We'll see though.
I am picking Baltimore by default more than anything. If they get behind to anyone early, they'll lose because the offense still isn't that good. But their defense is the most dominant unit in the playoffs, which makes a difference.
I personally prefer Chicago or NO in the NFC. The AFC has SD, I like watching Baltimore's D, and Peyton deserves to win one. Of course, America will pull for NO and rightfully so, and the Dallas and Chicago fans wil be loud as well. Hopefully it will be a fun post-season for all.
It's da name that's runnin' the game...
Thursday, January 04, 2007
Bracketography
Quick pub for the NCAA website for which contributions are made:
www.bracketography.com
New article up on my former employer univeristy, the Clemson Tigers. IPTAY for life.
www.bracketography.com
New article up on my former employer univeristy, the Clemson Tigers. IPTAY for life.
Wednesday, January 03, 2007
This is what I think about...
Nick Saban.
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/columns/story?columnist=forde_pat&id=2718798
In fact, Alabama, long the prototype program for much of what is wrong with college football), may now be among my bottom five teams. But, I will not cast a stone out my glass house, as the new head coach of my alma mater is mentioned in Forde's article for very similar transgressions. Therefore:
Dear Butch Davis:
Please do not leave North Carolina until you retire with four national titles.
Love,
Me.
More on my letter to Butch coming up later.
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/columns/story?columnist=forde_pat&id=2718798
In fact, Alabama, long the prototype program for much of what is wrong with college football), may now be among my bottom five teams. But, I will not cast a stone out my glass house, as the new head coach of my alma mater is mentioned in Forde's article for very similar transgressions. Therefore:
Dear Butch Davis:
Please do not leave North Carolina until you retire with four national titles.
Love,
Me.
More on my letter to Butch coming up later.
Wednesday, December 20, 2006
Shocker
Well, well, well...look who decided to actually post something on his blog. The Pensington Bone, the Winchester Rifle, the Phi Alpha Gamma co-founder has returned. Let me tell you, the working world really does not allow for much time with such nonsense as regularly updating a blog, even one with as devoted a readership as The Blue Team. Devoted to what, I don't know, but you readers as surely all devoted to something. Combine a busy schedule with no internet at my living quarters and you get no posting for three months. After enduring many complaints and much frustration, I decided to post something.
So quickly, let's hit ten topics that I have something to say about.
1. The BCS. Sucks. After defending it for a few years, I've nearly given up. College football's method of deciding a national champion has long been a joke. AP voters, coaches poll voters, the Bowl Alliance, the BCS...it's all the same. None crown a champion without controversy. The BCS is indeed the most effective of the aforementioned systems, but that does not mean it gets the job done. I'm not sure a "Plus One" system is perfect, but at least it's better than this. Try it and in five years (after it's failed at least three times), then move to a playoff. It's just ridiculous when every other sport of relevance has a post-season tournament.
2. AI. Allen Iverson has a new home. My affection for Denver's players just grew even more. I've been riding the Nuggets bandwagon since they drafted Carmelo (and debuted those still-snazzy unis. I'm a sucker for various shades of powder blue). Now they're adding one of my favorite guys to watch in Iverson. I'm concerned long-term about the Nuggs ability to defend on the perimeter (Iverson, JR Smith, and Anthony...not an All-NBA defensive squad) and lack of quality post players, but they are an improved team nonetheless. There comes a point when a team maximizes it's ceiling for contention and Denver had reached that. They were headed to the playoffs again and would, at best, lose in the Western Conference Semi-Finals. When you get to the point that your team can get no better with the players it has, combined with contracts locking you into your foundation players, then it's time to make some changes and take some risks. If you improve, great. If you get worse, it's really not that big of a deal because you weren't going to win the whole thing anyway. Memphis Grizzlies, take notes. LA Clippers, you too.
3. My Carolina Panthers are abysmal. Yes, I picked them to play in the Super Bowl. For the first time in forever, I drank the hype machine kool-aid on a team I pull for. Normally, I downplay the ability to contend for any team I am a true fan of (see Tar Heels, North Carolina, 2004-2005). However, the Panthers looked to be the best NFC team on paper. When healthy, they're still pretty close to that. But sometimes, one bad loss or general bad karma mess up a season. The NFL is the sport most affected by momentum, motivation, and psyche to me because there are only sixteen games in the regular season. The playoffs are a bit of a different story, but in the regular season, a team can just catch a good vibe early on and ride it out. The opposite happened the Carolina. From the season-opening loss to Atlanta, something just felt bad. Certainly the loss at Minnesota is week two furthered that thought. Yes, there is an ebb and flow to every team's season. However, sometimes it's just not your year. New Orleans caught the fever early and has prolonged it to clinching a playoff berth. To me, this is a major reason for the parity in the NFL.
4. Big picture NFL. Everyone has question marks. I can't remember a recent season that there was not a prohibitive favorite entering the playoffs in either league. The Chargers are solid, but they still have a first-year starter at QB. Baltimore has no consistent offense. Chicago is banged up on defense and shaky on offense. Dallas' pass defense is weak. New Orleans is inexperienced. New England is great at times and horrible at times, as is Indianapolis. Everyone else is just inconsistent and flawed in multiple facets. A total crapshoot as far as I am concerned.
5. NCAA Hoops. Finally in full swing, with the conference season right around the corner. UCLA is still unbeaten and has impressed me thus far. Certainly a Final Four contender, even a favorite, at this point. Florida is just hanging out, waiting to turn it on and trying to get healthy. Ohio State is improving by every second closer to "fully healthy" that Greg Oden gets. Wichita State, Butler, and Gonzaga lead the "mid-major" league teams, all with many quality non-conference wins early on.
6. Duke. Overrated. Enough said. Well, maybe not. Currently ranked sixth in the nation, the Blue Devils are vastly overrated. Like hugely. As in, gigantically overrated. This is maybe a top-20 team right now. However, they keep winning. Coach K is just unbelievable. It's like he listened all year last year to how good a job Roy Williams was doing down the road and decided to one-up him this year. Speaking of Roy...
7. Carolina Basketball. This could be a column unto itself and probably will be at some point. First, the bad. Extremely young still. The intangible of playing with desperation is so important in the NCAA Tournament. Last year's team had five new players who didn't understand the finality of losing in the NCAA Tournament until it happened. It so upset Tyler Hansbrough that he sat motionless, jersey on, for five minutes following the upset loss to George Mason. Ok, so Psycho T gets it now. But Ty, Brandan, Wayne, etc haven't been there yet. Communicating to these young players that the effort and "I must win this game or else I don't get to play again" mentaility must be there in March. And yes, I'm worried about March already. Because honestly, the regular season just isn't going to matter that much with this team. The Heels plays at Duke, BC, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Virginia Tech, and Clemson, all teams capable of making the NCAA Tournament. Also, a road game with NC State. And of course, the trip to Arizona at the end of January. All that being said, the team should finish the regular season with no more than six total losses, and probably more like four. Winning at Arizona will be tough, and the three road games at the end of February will produce much worriation. However, this team's goal is to win its last game in April.
8. Carolina Basketball. The Good. Wayne Ellington is way, way, way better than I envisioned. Carolina hasn't had a shooter like this since Joe Forte (shudder). Rashad McCants was a terrific shooter, but was much more of a scorer, posting up, finishing strong on the break, and driving to the basket. I got frustrated with Rashad when he just stood outside the arc and shot three balls all day. But Ellington's shot is great, especially mid-range. He also has the ability to get to the basket and finish, which hopefully can be applied when he has a poor shooting game in the NCAA Tournament (because it will happen, it always does). Ty Lawson has improved greatly from the first game. I'm interested to see how Bobby Frasor fits into this system when he gets healthy. Marcus Ginyard's defense is unbelievable, something that can be relied on every night. However, he and Danny Green do so many other little things to help this team out. Putbacks, running the break, rotating on defense, etc. Brandan Wright is channeling Sam Perkins (yes, I took the easy way out by comparing the two smooth, long lefties like everyone and their brother does) which is a very good thing. He needs to body up better on rebounds, but his loooooong arms help compensate. He will get pushed around in the ACC though by guys like Ogsy, Costner, and the three non-offensive, bulky, near-henchmen at UVA. Tyler Hansbrough...I'm not even going to bother.
9. Carolina Basketball. The Eh. Wes Miller has not contributed much of anything offensively. This is only a problem because I like him a lot and there will be a game that we need him to hit shots. He will. Ultimately, as long as Frasor recovers quickly from his injuries, Miller will not play a lot of crucial minutes. Quentin Thomas is still out and will not factor into the rotation this season. Unfortunate, but not tough to see coming. Reyshawn Terry...sometimes I want to kill him, sometimes I want to hug him. He's playing better recently, but it's only because of open looks. Please drive to the basket. Please. And play defense. Please. Thanks.
10. Carolina Basketball. Two years from now. In two years, Hansbrough & Wright will be gone. Heck, they could be gone in four months. Let's just hope with a national title. Anyway, while I don't want Deon Thompson and Alex Stepheson as the starting lineup next year, I'm not opposed to it in two years. Stepheson is basically what I thought he'd be: solid frame, good rebounder, limited offensively, plays hard. Not a superstar, but he'll be fine and there aren't many times that I feel uncomfortable with him in the lineup. Now for Deon Thompson. There will come a point in two years or so that Carolina will be on ESPN against a ranked opponent. Let's say Duke, who should be good in two years. Ok, they'll be nasty in two years. Anyway, for a stretch of the game, the Carolina point guard (Lawson, Frasor, Larry Drew Jr maybe? Let's hope the first one) will throw Deon the ball in the post and he will score. Then he'll score on a putback. Then he'll hit a baby hook. Then he'll steal the ball, run the floor trailing our super-fast point guard, get the ball dumped off to him in the lane, and slam home a furious two-handed dunk. And the following will take place:
"Oooohhh America, are you serious?!? Neon Deon is amazing!!! He was a diaper dandy, but now he's the Big Man on Campus!!! Ohhhh!!! The aircraft carrier!!! Oooohh!! America!!!! North Carolina!!!!"
At that point, Dickie V might actually levitate. The point is, Thompson will never be spectacular. But, he will be a force inside on the offensive end. Think Elton Brand more than Sean May. Either way, the result will be the same. I'm big on this guy. Turnin' up the Deon Thompson Kool-Aid and chugging it.
Ok, so I cheated. I really only talked about a few topics. Oh well, at least I posted something. Niiice.
Merry Christmas to everyone. All I want for Christmas is you.
So quickly, let's hit ten topics that I have something to say about.
1. The BCS. Sucks. After defending it for a few years, I've nearly given up. College football's method of deciding a national champion has long been a joke. AP voters, coaches poll voters, the Bowl Alliance, the BCS...it's all the same. None crown a champion without controversy. The BCS is indeed the most effective of the aforementioned systems, but that does not mean it gets the job done. I'm not sure a "Plus One" system is perfect, but at least it's better than this. Try it and in five years (after it's failed at least three times), then move to a playoff. It's just ridiculous when every other sport of relevance has a post-season tournament.
2. AI. Allen Iverson has a new home. My affection for Denver's players just grew even more. I've been riding the Nuggets bandwagon since they drafted Carmelo (and debuted those still-snazzy unis. I'm a sucker for various shades of powder blue). Now they're adding one of my favorite guys to watch in Iverson. I'm concerned long-term about the Nuggs ability to defend on the perimeter (Iverson, JR Smith, and Anthony...not an All-NBA defensive squad) and lack of quality post players, but they are an improved team nonetheless. There comes a point when a team maximizes it's ceiling for contention and Denver had reached that. They were headed to the playoffs again and would, at best, lose in the Western Conference Semi-Finals. When you get to the point that your team can get no better with the players it has, combined with contracts locking you into your foundation players, then it's time to make some changes and take some risks. If you improve, great. If you get worse, it's really not that big of a deal because you weren't going to win the whole thing anyway. Memphis Grizzlies, take notes. LA Clippers, you too.
3. My Carolina Panthers are abysmal. Yes, I picked them to play in the Super Bowl. For the first time in forever, I drank the hype machine kool-aid on a team I pull for. Normally, I downplay the ability to contend for any team I am a true fan of (see Tar Heels, North Carolina, 2004-2005). However, the Panthers looked to be the best NFC team on paper. When healthy, they're still pretty close to that. But sometimes, one bad loss or general bad karma mess up a season. The NFL is the sport most affected by momentum, motivation, and psyche to me because there are only sixteen games in the regular season. The playoffs are a bit of a different story, but in the regular season, a team can just catch a good vibe early on and ride it out. The opposite happened the Carolina. From the season-opening loss to Atlanta, something just felt bad. Certainly the loss at Minnesota is week two furthered that thought. Yes, there is an ebb and flow to every team's season. However, sometimes it's just not your year. New Orleans caught the fever early and has prolonged it to clinching a playoff berth. To me, this is a major reason for the parity in the NFL.
4. Big picture NFL. Everyone has question marks. I can't remember a recent season that there was not a prohibitive favorite entering the playoffs in either league. The Chargers are solid, but they still have a first-year starter at QB. Baltimore has no consistent offense. Chicago is banged up on defense and shaky on offense. Dallas' pass defense is weak. New Orleans is inexperienced. New England is great at times and horrible at times, as is Indianapolis. Everyone else is just inconsistent and flawed in multiple facets. A total crapshoot as far as I am concerned.
5. NCAA Hoops. Finally in full swing, with the conference season right around the corner. UCLA is still unbeaten and has impressed me thus far. Certainly a Final Four contender, even a favorite, at this point. Florida is just hanging out, waiting to turn it on and trying to get healthy. Ohio State is improving by every second closer to "fully healthy" that Greg Oden gets. Wichita State, Butler, and Gonzaga lead the "mid-major" league teams, all with many quality non-conference wins early on.
6. Duke. Overrated. Enough said. Well, maybe not. Currently ranked sixth in the nation, the Blue Devils are vastly overrated. Like hugely. As in, gigantically overrated. This is maybe a top-20 team right now. However, they keep winning. Coach K is just unbelievable. It's like he listened all year last year to how good a job Roy Williams was doing down the road and decided to one-up him this year. Speaking of Roy...
7. Carolina Basketball. This could be a column unto itself and probably will be at some point. First, the bad. Extremely young still. The intangible of playing with desperation is so important in the NCAA Tournament. Last year's team had five new players who didn't understand the finality of losing in the NCAA Tournament until it happened. It so upset Tyler Hansbrough that he sat motionless, jersey on, for five minutes following the upset loss to George Mason. Ok, so Psycho T gets it now. But Ty, Brandan, Wayne, etc haven't been there yet. Communicating to these young players that the effort and "I must win this game or else I don't get to play again" mentaility must be there in March. And yes, I'm worried about March already. Because honestly, the regular season just isn't going to matter that much with this team. The Heels plays at Duke, BC, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Virginia Tech, and Clemson, all teams capable of making the NCAA Tournament. Also, a road game with NC State. And of course, the trip to Arizona at the end of January. All that being said, the team should finish the regular season with no more than six total losses, and probably more like four. Winning at Arizona will be tough, and the three road games at the end of February will produce much worriation. However, this team's goal is to win its last game in April.
8. Carolina Basketball. The Good. Wayne Ellington is way, way, way better than I envisioned. Carolina hasn't had a shooter like this since Joe Forte (shudder). Rashad McCants was a terrific shooter, but was much more of a scorer, posting up, finishing strong on the break, and driving to the basket. I got frustrated with Rashad when he just stood outside the arc and shot three balls all day. But Ellington's shot is great, especially mid-range. He also has the ability to get to the basket and finish, which hopefully can be applied when he has a poor shooting game in the NCAA Tournament (because it will happen, it always does). Ty Lawson has improved greatly from the first game. I'm interested to see how Bobby Frasor fits into this system when he gets healthy. Marcus Ginyard's defense is unbelievable, something that can be relied on every night. However, he and Danny Green do so many other little things to help this team out. Putbacks, running the break, rotating on defense, etc. Brandan Wright is channeling Sam Perkins (yes, I took the easy way out by comparing the two smooth, long lefties like everyone and their brother does) which is a very good thing. He needs to body up better on rebounds, but his loooooong arms help compensate. He will get pushed around in the ACC though by guys like Ogsy, Costner, and the three non-offensive, bulky, near-henchmen at UVA. Tyler Hansbrough...I'm not even going to bother.
9. Carolina Basketball. The Eh. Wes Miller has not contributed much of anything offensively. This is only a problem because I like him a lot and there will be a game that we need him to hit shots. He will. Ultimately, as long as Frasor recovers quickly from his injuries, Miller will not play a lot of crucial minutes. Quentin Thomas is still out and will not factor into the rotation this season. Unfortunate, but not tough to see coming. Reyshawn Terry...sometimes I want to kill him, sometimes I want to hug him. He's playing better recently, but it's only because of open looks. Please drive to the basket. Please. And play defense. Please. Thanks.
10. Carolina Basketball. Two years from now. In two years, Hansbrough & Wright will be gone. Heck, they could be gone in four months. Let's just hope with a national title. Anyway, while I don't want Deon Thompson and Alex Stepheson as the starting lineup next year, I'm not opposed to it in two years. Stepheson is basically what I thought he'd be: solid frame, good rebounder, limited offensively, plays hard. Not a superstar, but he'll be fine and there aren't many times that I feel uncomfortable with him in the lineup. Now for Deon Thompson. There will come a point in two years or so that Carolina will be on ESPN against a ranked opponent. Let's say Duke, who should be good in two years. Ok, they'll be nasty in two years. Anyway, for a stretch of the game, the Carolina point guard (Lawson, Frasor, Larry Drew Jr maybe? Let's hope the first one) will throw Deon the ball in the post and he will score. Then he'll score on a putback. Then he'll hit a baby hook. Then he'll steal the ball, run the floor trailing our super-fast point guard, get the ball dumped off to him in the lane, and slam home a furious two-handed dunk. And the following will take place:
"Oooohhh America, are you serious?!? Neon Deon is amazing!!! He was a diaper dandy, but now he's the Big Man on Campus!!! Ohhhh!!! The aircraft carrier!!! Oooohh!! America!!!! North Carolina!!!!"
At that point, Dickie V might actually levitate. The point is, Thompson will never be spectacular. But, he will be a force inside on the offensive end. Think Elton Brand more than Sean May. Either way, the result will be the same. I'm big on this guy. Turnin' up the Deon Thompson Kool-Aid and chugging it.
Ok, so I cheated. I really only talked about a few topics. Oh well, at least I posted something. Niiice.
Merry Christmas to everyone. All I want for Christmas is you.
Monday, September 25, 2006
Welcome back New Orleans
A lot of thoughts on this past weekend of football, but I'm going to start with the present instead. Sitting here watching the pre-game for the first NFL football game in New Orleans since Hurricane Katrina, I have a number of thoughts. There will be contrasts here, so bear with me, as I see many sides to this; after all, I am a moderate.
First, let me say that the emotion of the night for most everyone involved is quite genuine. I have no idea how they really feel except based on what I can see; what I see is people who are thankful to be alive and who seem to be looking to the future. I hope and pray that the future is brighter than the last year has been in many ways. However, the strength of many individuals in the area and the unity that has formed amongst the people is to be commended. Truly, at least that one positive has come about from all of the adversity. To me, that can be seen as part of God's will for those individuals and that region.
However, I have a hard time fully supporting the positive spin of this night. The region is still decimated, as has been covered. I do agree that the football game can be seen as a symbol of a return to normalcy, a beacon of hope, and a rallying point. I also commend ESPN for emphasizing, at least thus far, the need for further assistance in the area during its pregame coverage. What I do not support is this supposed "love for the Saints." Prior to Katrina, the Saints were in the news only as 1) a bad football team, 2) the team whose fans wore bags on their heads during games, & 3) the most likely franchise to be relocated. Support for professional sports in New Orleans is...um...poor. Which is obviously an understatement.
The Saints just blocked a punt for a touchdown. Wow. Amazing. That is really awesome, the Superdome is going nuts.
Anyway, when the Charlotte Hornets moved to New Orleans, my Dad and I laughed about how they had gone out of the frying pan into the fire. Why anyone would move an NBA team to a city that does not have solid support for its NFL team is beyond me. My point is that the Saints franchise may be seashells and balloons right now, but it certainly has not typically been the case. Maybe part of the hurricane's point was to help keep this team in New Orleans. Whatever the divine purpose, the positive spin of the franchise is almost comical. It really took a hurricane to save this team, at least for now.
For more, go to www.chrischase.com. This guy, a Wake Forest grad, has a widely-read blog that is witty and opinionated. He beat me to some of my thoughts, and is a good writer, so check it out. In fact, check out his blog often, it's typically good stuff.
A few more thoughts on this game. The pregame show featuring Green Day and U2 was well done. A New Orleans flavor and helping promote a good cause created by the two bands. Definitely two of my favorite rock bands, Green Day for its fast songs, creativity, and drumming, and U2 for just being awesome.
Good to see Robin Roberts given the task of emceeing the pregame event. It's good to see a woman given the opportunity and no woman is more deserving than Roberts. She has long been the best female in the sportscasting profession in my opinion, as she is thorough, knowledgeable, and smooth on the air.
Kinda ironic that President George Bush Sr. was brought in to do the coin toss, seeing as Ray Nagin, the mayor of New Orleans, has been so critical of his son's policy as President.
I found ESPN's "black church" intro between the concert and the MNF crew taking over to be a little tasteless. Seemed to patronize black churches, football, and the events of the past year. I'm sure it was not intended that way, and was creative...but it was still the wrong creative decision in my opinion.
How do you give a pregame pep talk if you're the coach of the Falcons? "All right , who cares about the stupid hurricane, this is football, let's go kick their &*#$@^! !@$" or "Katrina wiped them out last year, now it's our turn to wipe them out this season"?? I mean, really, what do you say? You know the Saints will be more fired up than usual, and the crowd will be stoked as well. So how do you hype your own team up?
I think we should have seen this early season success coming for the Saints. Between the schedule and the fact that this season has to be easier on them than last year, it was too obvious. Yet, no one noticed it prior to now. So much for the experts and idiots like myself.
Moving on to the NFL weekend. Big, big, big win for Denver at New England. I picked Denver, probably because I was being stubborn since I picked the Broncos to win the Super Bowl. The Broncs really are a good football team and should be around most of the season. Their upcoming games with the Chargers should be fun.
Bigger win for the now 1-2 Panthers. John Kasay with an NFL record in winning the game for Carolina: first kicker in NFL history to make four field goals from 45+ yards in a game. Unfortunately, as most of you have heard by now, Bucs' quarterback Chris Simms had his spleen removed following the game. He got hurt, was bleeding internally, and did not know it, choosing to return to the game and try to help his team win. Never been the biggest Chris Simms fan, but that is gutsy. Literally.
Big news today is that Shaun Alexander, the reigning NFL MVP, has a broken bone in his foot and will miss 4-6 weeks. Maybe that Madden cover jinx is for real. I guess we will see how important Alexander really is to the success of the Seahawks' offense now.
On to college football and the teams I follow. Carolina apparently did not realize they had a game this weekend, so I will not comment other than to say this: John Bunting will not be fired this season. It costs the university too much money, and the recruiting class for next year is strong enough that the administration will not risk losing signees because of a coaching change. Also, keep in mind the schedule softens considerably as the year progresses for Carolina. Unless the team ends up 2-10 or so, Bunting is not really in trouble. Everyone should also note that Marvin Sanders, the Defensive Coordinator, a young, up-and-coming coach, and Frank Cignetti, the new Offensive Coordinator, each have committed to being at Carolina over other schools and should be kept around to be given time to recruit and implement their systems. Finally, keep in mind the goal of football at Carolina right now: make a bowl, stay out of trouble, graduate players, make money. That's it. Anything else is gravy. Bunting and his staff are capable of that.
The gf and I went to Big Al's, a local Blacksburg hot spot, Saturday night to enjoy some refreshments and watch football. Throughout the night, I was ripped for wearing a Notre Dame hat, as the Irish were getting drilled at Michigan St on national television. Needless to say, the Irish comeback was that much sweeter when you get to yell over a loud crowd when no one but you wants to see a team win. Almost as much fun as Carolina winning at Cameron Indoor...
Finally, Georgia had a nice comeback win at home over Colorado, a game that never should have been a tight game given the ineptitude of Colorado thus far. But, give the Buffs credit for coming to play between the hedges. Georgia is a team I generally pull for and prefer in the SEC, but more so recently given the plethora of Independence High School alumni who have gone on to play for the Dawgs. Robert Brannon, Mario Raley (Sr. WR), Mohamed Massaquoi (So. WR), and Joe Cox (RsFr QB). Joe Cox was the QB who came on in the fourth quarter Saturday in relief of "golden child" Matthew Stafford and did nothing other than go 10-13 for 153 yards and two TDs. Joe Cox is a winner, having not lost a game in which he appeared in since sometime prior to high school. My very biased note to UGA: start Joe Cox, he's better than you think. And, we have the same dentist.
Quick overall NCAA thoughts: I like this Florida team, they are legitimately good. Southern Cal is much more balanced than recent years, as the defense is quite good (as evidenced by them holding Arizona to 3 points this past weekend). I'm interested to see what Iowa can do with Ohio St in Iowa City this weekend. The atmosphere will be great. Hopefully the Hawkeyes can at least make it a competitive game. I still like Auburn as the best team, fyi. I'll go as far as to say the winner of Florida/Auburn will play for the national title.
I heard 311 on the radio today as background music on the local Blacksburg rock station. They did not play the song, just the instrumental intro while some stupid deejay talked. I have not heard 311 on the radio since moving here; hearing them used in this way just furthered my dislike of 105.3FM The Bear.
Enjoy the week. Big home game for VT this weekend, hosting Georgia Tech. Hokie Hokie High.
Loos-en up-my but-tons babe...
First, let me say that the emotion of the night for most everyone involved is quite genuine. I have no idea how they really feel except based on what I can see; what I see is people who are thankful to be alive and who seem to be looking to the future. I hope and pray that the future is brighter than the last year has been in many ways. However, the strength of many individuals in the area and the unity that has formed amongst the people is to be commended. Truly, at least that one positive has come about from all of the adversity. To me, that can be seen as part of God's will for those individuals and that region.
However, I have a hard time fully supporting the positive spin of this night. The region is still decimated, as has been covered. I do agree that the football game can be seen as a symbol of a return to normalcy, a beacon of hope, and a rallying point. I also commend ESPN for emphasizing, at least thus far, the need for further assistance in the area during its pregame coverage. What I do not support is this supposed "love for the Saints." Prior to Katrina, the Saints were in the news only as 1) a bad football team, 2) the team whose fans wore bags on their heads during games, & 3) the most likely franchise to be relocated. Support for professional sports in New Orleans is...um...poor. Which is obviously an understatement.
The Saints just blocked a punt for a touchdown. Wow. Amazing. That is really awesome, the Superdome is going nuts.
Anyway, when the Charlotte Hornets moved to New Orleans, my Dad and I laughed about how they had gone out of the frying pan into the fire. Why anyone would move an NBA team to a city that does not have solid support for its NFL team is beyond me. My point is that the Saints franchise may be seashells and balloons right now, but it certainly has not typically been the case. Maybe part of the hurricane's point was to help keep this team in New Orleans. Whatever the divine purpose, the positive spin of the franchise is almost comical. It really took a hurricane to save this team, at least for now.
For more, go to www.chrischase.com. This guy, a Wake Forest grad, has a widely-read blog that is witty and opinionated. He beat me to some of my thoughts, and is a good writer, so check it out. In fact, check out his blog often, it's typically good stuff.
A few more thoughts on this game. The pregame show featuring Green Day and U2 was well done. A New Orleans flavor and helping promote a good cause created by the two bands. Definitely two of my favorite rock bands, Green Day for its fast songs, creativity, and drumming, and U2 for just being awesome.
Good to see Robin Roberts given the task of emceeing the pregame event. It's good to see a woman given the opportunity and no woman is more deserving than Roberts. She has long been the best female in the sportscasting profession in my opinion, as she is thorough, knowledgeable, and smooth on the air.
Kinda ironic that President George Bush Sr. was brought in to do the coin toss, seeing as Ray Nagin, the mayor of New Orleans, has been so critical of his son's policy as President.
I found ESPN's "black church" intro between the concert and the MNF crew taking over to be a little tasteless. Seemed to patronize black churches, football, and the events of the past year. I'm sure it was not intended that way, and was creative...but it was still the wrong creative decision in my opinion.
How do you give a pregame pep talk if you're the coach of the Falcons? "All right , who cares about the stupid hurricane, this is football, let's go kick their &*#$@^! !@$" or "Katrina wiped them out last year, now it's our turn to wipe them out this season"?? I mean, really, what do you say? You know the Saints will be more fired up than usual, and the crowd will be stoked as well. So how do you hype your own team up?
I think we should have seen this early season success coming for the Saints. Between the schedule and the fact that this season has to be easier on them than last year, it was too obvious. Yet, no one noticed it prior to now. So much for the experts and idiots like myself.
Moving on to the NFL weekend. Big, big, big win for Denver at New England. I picked Denver, probably because I was being stubborn since I picked the Broncos to win the Super Bowl. The Broncs really are a good football team and should be around most of the season. Their upcoming games with the Chargers should be fun.
Bigger win for the now 1-2 Panthers. John Kasay with an NFL record in winning the game for Carolina: first kicker in NFL history to make four field goals from 45+ yards in a game. Unfortunately, as most of you have heard by now, Bucs' quarterback Chris Simms had his spleen removed following the game. He got hurt, was bleeding internally, and did not know it, choosing to return to the game and try to help his team win. Never been the biggest Chris Simms fan, but that is gutsy. Literally.
Big news today is that Shaun Alexander, the reigning NFL MVP, has a broken bone in his foot and will miss 4-6 weeks. Maybe that Madden cover jinx is for real. I guess we will see how important Alexander really is to the success of the Seahawks' offense now.
On to college football and the teams I follow. Carolina apparently did not realize they had a game this weekend, so I will not comment other than to say this: John Bunting will not be fired this season. It costs the university too much money, and the recruiting class for next year is strong enough that the administration will not risk losing signees because of a coaching change. Also, keep in mind the schedule softens considerably as the year progresses for Carolina. Unless the team ends up 2-10 or so, Bunting is not really in trouble. Everyone should also note that Marvin Sanders, the Defensive Coordinator, a young, up-and-coming coach, and Frank Cignetti, the new Offensive Coordinator, each have committed to being at Carolina over other schools and should be kept around to be given time to recruit and implement their systems. Finally, keep in mind the goal of football at Carolina right now: make a bowl, stay out of trouble, graduate players, make money. That's it. Anything else is gravy. Bunting and his staff are capable of that.
The gf and I went to Big Al's, a local Blacksburg hot spot, Saturday night to enjoy some refreshments and watch football. Throughout the night, I was ripped for wearing a Notre Dame hat, as the Irish were getting drilled at Michigan St on national television. Needless to say, the Irish comeback was that much sweeter when you get to yell over a loud crowd when no one but you wants to see a team win. Almost as much fun as Carolina winning at Cameron Indoor...
Finally, Georgia had a nice comeback win at home over Colorado, a game that never should have been a tight game given the ineptitude of Colorado thus far. But, give the Buffs credit for coming to play between the hedges. Georgia is a team I generally pull for and prefer in the SEC, but more so recently given the plethora of Independence High School alumni who have gone on to play for the Dawgs. Robert Brannon, Mario Raley (Sr. WR), Mohamed Massaquoi (So. WR), and Joe Cox (RsFr QB). Joe Cox was the QB who came on in the fourth quarter Saturday in relief of "golden child" Matthew Stafford and did nothing other than go 10-13 for 153 yards and two TDs. Joe Cox is a winner, having not lost a game in which he appeared in since sometime prior to high school. My very biased note to UGA: start Joe Cox, he's better than you think. And, we have the same dentist.
Quick overall NCAA thoughts: I like this Florida team, they are legitimately good. Southern Cal is much more balanced than recent years, as the defense is quite good (as evidenced by them holding Arizona to 3 points this past weekend). I'm interested to see what Iowa can do with Ohio St in Iowa City this weekend. The atmosphere will be great. Hopefully the Hawkeyes can at least make it a competitive game. I still like Auburn as the best team, fyi. I'll go as far as to say the winner of Florida/Auburn will play for the national title.
I heard 311 on the radio today as background music on the local Blacksburg rock station. They did not play the song, just the instrumental intro while some stupid deejay talked. I have not heard 311 on the radio since moving here; hearing them used in this way just furthered my dislike of 105.3FM The Bear.
Enjoy the week. Big home game for VT this weekend, hosting Georgia Tech. Hokie Hokie High.
Loos-en up-my but-tons babe...
Monday, September 18, 2006
Football galore
It sure is nice to have cable again, as it has given me the opportunity to watch many a football game. College football is in full swing and the NFL is underway as well. First, looking at the college ranks.
"Separation Saturday" as so eloquently dubbed by ESPN and it's genius marketers (sarcasm) actually lived up to the hype. Thank you Auburn/LSU, Oregon/OU/officials, Tenn/Fla, FSU/Clemson and Carolina/Furman for helping make my Saturday worth watching.
Auburn vs LSU was my favorite game of the day. These two teams simply play another game than most other college teams, as the speed and hitting are unreal. Unlike FSU and Miami, I would wager that both teams are actually pretty good, offenses included. I would still contend that Auburn is the biggest challenger to Ohio St this season, although Auburn's schedule will make it much tougher for the Tigers to go undefeated. Somehow, a 7-3 ballgame held my attention, almost the same way a scoreless hockey game would. This is the time of the year I love the BCS. Yes, I said I love the BCS. Without the system, this game would matter only to see who gets the higher seed in the "playoffs" of college football; instead, with the BCS, the LSU/Auburn game most likely eliminated one team from the national title race. As many a coach would say, you can't win the national title in September, but you sure can lose it.
Moving to other games, the OU/Oregon ending has been criticized thoroughly by the mainstream media, so I will spare us the repetition. Obviously the officials made a questionable series of calls at best, but Oregon still made two or three huge plays to win the game, so props to the Ducks. Don't blame Oregon for taking advantage of the circumstances presented to them.
I was very glad to see Florida win. In my ideal world, now that Carolina and Notre Dame will probably not win the national title, I am hoping the Gators run the table. I have never been a Florida fan, but after Chris Leak graduated from the alma mater, Independence High School, and chose UF, I have to pull for him. Therefore, I want Chris to shut up the ridiculous Florida fans and win the Heisman Trophy and the national title. So it's not as much go Florida as it is go Chris Leak. Independence, by the way, continued its nation-leading high school football win streak of ninety five (?) straight games with a 21-20 victory over Vance High School in Charlotte after stopping a two-point conversion attempt on the game's final play. I think tarheelpwin almost had a heart attack. Go Big I.
On to Notre Dame, as the Irish came back down to earth this weekend, getting spanked by Michigan at home. Clearly overconfident and less athletic, Notre Dame made too many mistakes against a quality opponent and paid the price for it. Disappointing, yes, but not really that surprising. They will most likely lose again before the season is out, as I stand by the claim that ND is top ten good, but no where near numero uno.
Finally, Carolina won its first game of the season in convincing fashion...scrapping by I-AA Furman. Furman is a good I-AA team, yes; but any decent D-I team should defeat them rather easily, especially at home. Clearly, the Tar Heels are not a decent I-A team, period. Analysis from the game is not necessary; the offense played pretty well, the defense was horrid. Looking forward, I would not be at all shocked to see Carolina give Clemson or Miami a good game the next two weeks on the road. Clemson will be a little overconfident having won at Tallahassee and should have a natural letdown. Miami does not look capable of blowing anyone out right now, so hopefully the Heels can at least hang in there at the Orange Bowl.
Quick hits: West VA looked awesome for the first quarter against Maryland last Thursday, just amazing how fast that team is; Georgia and Virginia Tech are playing the same game right now. Both struggle at QB a little bit, but have amazing defenses. Neither will win the national title, but each is in good position to contend for league titles in the SEC & ACC respectively; Speaking of the ACC, way to drop the ball NC State and UVA, and so much for my "Florida St could be really good this year" prediction; Southern Cal is scary right now because they are so young, but so good. So much fun to watch; Louisville is really banged up with Brian Brohm going down in the huge win over Miami, but they are still mauling teams. Imagine if they were healthy. Trust me, their fans are imagining the same thing; TCU defeated Texas Tech Saturday, 12-3, in a game that was overshadowed by the other great games of the day. However, the game has BCS implications, as TCU is now clear to run the table and earn the non-BCS conference berth in the BCS. If that makes sense.
Moving on to the NFL...first, the bad news. The Panthers are 0-2 and have some crucial injury issues. Steve Smith, Ken Lucas, Shawn Williams, Dan Morgan, Travelle Wharton, etc. Weak offensive line play and bonehead decision-making/play-calling unraveled a sure victory this past Sunday at Minnesota. It's not panic time yet, but Carolina must regain it focus and confidence quickly or watch its pre-season hype crash and burn.
On the flip side, a number of teams are 2-0 that are not as talented as Carolina. What happens every year in the NFL is a few teams get off to a good start, wins a game or two they shouldn't, get a good vibe and chemistry going, and find themselves 6-2 or 5-3 at the halfway point, often taking advantage of weaker schedules. Then, one or two fall apart, while another team or two keeps the momentum and ends up in the playoffs. The year Baltimore won the Super Bowl, the Ravens did this. Atlanta when they eventually lost to Denver in the Super Bowl did this. Chicago has done it twice in the last six years or so. This year, Minnesota, New Orleans, Baltimore, San Diego, and Atlanta are five teams who missed the playoffs last year and are currently 2-0. Minnesota has already beaten two teams with more talent and seem to be gaining confidence and buying into new Head Coach Brad Childress' system. New Orleans has defeated two poor teams (Cleveland and Green Bay; so much for my "Cleveland is a sleeper" theory) but is generating excitement nonetheless. Baltimore looks to be legit, dominating Tampa Bay (whose offense has looked inept) on the road, then rolling over the hapless Raiders in the home opener. San Diego and Atlanta both narrowly missed the playoffs last season and were expected by many to bounce back. They are two of the most complete-looking teams at this early juncture of the season. The point of this discussion is to keep an eye on these teams over the next few weeks to see if one or two can develop into quality playoff teams as the season progresses.
I've had enough. I'm typing as I watch Monday Night Football (did you know it moved to ESPN? I had no clue. Why didn't ESPN publicize this? Brilliant marketing again, sarcasm again). As I pointed out to Gramps in our usual Monday night IM chat, it seems like Auburn and LSU changed jerseys and decided to dress up as Jacksonville and Pittsburgh and stage a rematch of their low-scoring, hard-hitting affair from Saturday afternoon. This game is intense right now, a big-time game for this early in the season.
Do ya chain hang low?
(I'm afraid the white people radio stations are quickly ruining this song, as I have heard it far too often and once witnessed a sorority girl singing it...sort of). Therefore, this week's lyric...taking it back a lil bit...
Motown Philly back again...doin' a little east coast swaaang.
Keep it real ya'll.
"Separation Saturday" as so eloquently dubbed by ESPN and it's genius marketers (sarcasm) actually lived up to the hype. Thank you Auburn/LSU, Oregon/OU/officials, Tenn/Fla, FSU/Clemson and Carolina/Furman for helping make my Saturday worth watching.
Auburn vs LSU was my favorite game of the day. These two teams simply play another game than most other college teams, as the speed and hitting are unreal. Unlike FSU and Miami, I would wager that both teams are actually pretty good, offenses included. I would still contend that Auburn is the biggest challenger to Ohio St this season, although Auburn's schedule will make it much tougher for the Tigers to go undefeated. Somehow, a 7-3 ballgame held my attention, almost the same way a scoreless hockey game would. This is the time of the year I love the BCS. Yes, I said I love the BCS. Without the system, this game would matter only to see who gets the higher seed in the "playoffs" of college football; instead, with the BCS, the LSU/Auburn game most likely eliminated one team from the national title race. As many a coach would say, you can't win the national title in September, but you sure can lose it.
Moving to other games, the OU/Oregon ending has been criticized thoroughly by the mainstream media, so I will spare us the repetition. Obviously the officials made a questionable series of calls at best, but Oregon still made two or three huge plays to win the game, so props to the Ducks. Don't blame Oregon for taking advantage of the circumstances presented to them.
I was very glad to see Florida win. In my ideal world, now that Carolina and Notre Dame will probably not win the national title, I am hoping the Gators run the table. I have never been a Florida fan, but after Chris Leak graduated from the alma mater, Independence High School, and chose UF, I have to pull for him. Therefore, I want Chris to shut up the ridiculous Florida fans and win the Heisman Trophy and the national title. So it's not as much go Florida as it is go Chris Leak. Independence, by the way, continued its nation-leading high school football win streak of ninety five (?) straight games with a 21-20 victory over Vance High School in Charlotte after stopping a two-point conversion attempt on the game's final play. I think tarheelpwin almost had a heart attack. Go Big I.
On to Notre Dame, as the Irish came back down to earth this weekend, getting spanked by Michigan at home. Clearly overconfident and less athletic, Notre Dame made too many mistakes against a quality opponent and paid the price for it. Disappointing, yes, but not really that surprising. They will most likely lose again before the season is out, as I stand by the claim that ND is top ten good, but no where near numero uno.
Finally, Carolina won its first game of the season in convincing fashion...scrapping by I-AA Furman. Furman is a good I-AA team, yes; but any decent D-I team should defeat them rather easily, especially at home. Clearly, the Tar Heels are not a decent I-A team, period. Analysis from the game is not necessary; the offense played pretty well, the defense was horrid. Looking forward, I would not be at all shocked to see Carolina give Clemson or Miami a good game the next two weeks on the road. Clemson will be a little overconfident having won at Tallahassee and should have a natural letdown. Miami does not look capable of blowing anyone out right now, so hopefully the Heels can at least hang in there at the Orange Bowl.
Quick hits: West VA looked awesome for the first quarter against Maryland last Thursday, just amazing how fast that team is; Georgia and Virginia Tech are playing the same game right now. Both struggle at QB a little bit, but have amazing defenses. Neither will win the national title, but each is in good position to contend for league titles in the SEC & ACC respectively; Speaking of the ACC, way to drop the ball NC State and UVA, and so much for my "Florida St could be really good this year" prediction; Southern Cal is scary right now because they are so young, but so good. So much fun to watch; Louisville is really banged up with Brian Brohm going down in the huge win over Miami, but they are still mauling teams. Imagine if they were healthy. Trust me, their fans are imagining the same thing; TCU defeated Texas Tech Saturday, 12-3, in a game that was overshadowed by the other great games of the day. However, the game has BCS implications, as TCU is now clear to run the table and earn the non-BCS conference berth in the BCS. If that makes sense.
Moving on to the NFL...first, the bad news. The Panthers are 0-2 and have some crucial injury issues. Steve Smith, Ken Lucas, Shawn Williams, Dan Morgan, Travelle Wharton, etc. Weak offensive line play and bonehead decision-making/play-calling unraveled a sure victory this past Sunday at Minnesota. It's not panic time yet, but Carolina must regain it focus and confidence quickly or watch its pre-season hype crash and burn.
On the flip side, a number of teams are 2-0 that are not as talented as Carolina. What happens every year in the NFL is a few teams get off to a good start, wins a game or two they shouldn't, get a good vibe and chemistry going, and find themselves 6-2 or 5-3 at the halfway point, often taking advantage of weaker schedules. Then, one or two fall apart, while another team or two keeps the momentum and ends up in the playoffs. The year Baltimore won the Super Bowl, the Ravens did this. Atlanta when they eventually lost to Denver in the Super Bowl did this. Chicago has done it twice in the last six years or so. This year, Minnesota, New Orleans, Baltimore, San Diego, and Atlanta are five teams who missed the playoffs last year and are currently 2-0. Minnesota has already beaten two teams with more talent and seem to be gaining confidence and buying into new Head Coach Brad Childress' system. New Orleans has defeated two poor teams (Cleveland and Green Bay; so much for my "Cleveland is a sleeper" theory) but is generating excitement nonetheless. Baltimore looks to be legit, dominating Tampa Bay (whose offense has looked inept) on the road, then rolling over the hapless Raiders in the home opener. San Diego and Atlanta both narrowly missed the playoffs last season and were expected by many to bounce back. They are two of the most complete-looking teams at this early juncture of the season. The point of this discussion is to keep an eye on these teams over the next few weeks to see if one or two can develop into quality playoff teams as the season progresses.
I've had enough. I'm typing as I watch Monday Night Football (did you know it moved to ESPN? I had no clue. Why didn't ESPN publicize this? Brilliant marketing again, sarcasm again). As I pointed out to Gramps in our usual Monday night IM chat, it seems like Auburn and LSU changed jerseys and decided to dress up as Jacksonville and Pittsburgh and stage a rematch of their low-scoring, hard-hitting affair from Saturday afternoon. This game is intense right now, a big-time game for this early in the season.
Do ya chain hang low?
(I'm afraid the white people radio stations are quickly ruining this song, as I have heard it far too often and once witnessed a sorority girl singing it...sort of). Therefore, this week's lyric...taking it back a lil bit...
Motown Philly back again...doin' a little east coast swaaang.
Keep it real ya'll.
Friday, September 08, 2006
NFL Preview
I heard a rumor that the NFL is starting tonight, Thursday night, September 7th. The reason it is a rumor is I have no television still in Blacksburg and have seen the internet for about ten minutes since last week, sans my college football posting on Monday night. By the way, I’m glad Florida St rallied; my ACC pick is still alive. Anyway, my point in telling you this is that Pittsburgh and Miami are kicking off the NFL season as I type this and I have no clue what is going on. This blog entry will be completed on the ole Carolina IBM ThinkPad from 2001 that cost around $3,000. Yes, that’s $3,000 American dollars. It will then be transferred via a USB Memory Key to my work computer at some point on Friday and posted. Basically, I’m grouchy as I preview the NFL, because I should be watching it. Therefore, expect some horrible predictions. Daggum.
Also, most years, I preview the NFL by examining schedules, timing of games, transactions, etc. This year? I’m just putting down what I think about each team and that’s it. No rocket science going on over here.
Now, are you ready for some football? Here’s the preview:
Who’s Good: Denver, Indy, Pittsburgh, New England, probably Cincinnati, Carolina, the NFC East sans Philly, Tampa Bay maybe, and I guess Seattle.
Who’s Bad: Houston, NY Jets, Buffalo, Tennessee, Oakland, San Fran, the NFC North, the NFC West
Who has Potential: Baltimore (I say that every year. Sigh), Atlanta, Miami, Cleveland.
Last year, I was pushing Chicago before the season started. I told my buddy Gramps that Da Bears could be 9-7 good. They weren’t; they were better (I also had Baltimore in the AFC Championship. Nice). I don’t have a feeling on anyone this season like that. Cleveland strikes me as the type of team that could evolve into a “Run, run, run, punt, play defense, improve field position, kick field goal, win by 3 points” team. The whole “Charlie Frye is our QB” thing bothers me, but he can’t be worse than what they’ve had before. Plus, I have Reuben Droughns in the Phi Alpha Gamma Fantasy Football League, so he’s due for a breakout season. Or a broken-in-half season.
As for winning the Super Bowl, most “experts” have favored Indianapolis, Carolina, Seattle, Pittsburgh, and a few New England. I picked the Pats three straight years, keeping with Ric Flair’s “To be the man, whooo, ya gotta beat the man” motto. New England was beaten by Denver last season, opening up the door for the Steelers. Now, picking a winner is tougher for me. There is no favorite in my eyes, so I’m going to do something stupid. I’m picking…the Denver Broncos. Reasons:
Jake Plummer strikes me as the type of QB who chokes year after year, is constantly criticized by the media and fans, underachieves, and then, all of a sudden, wins a Super Bowl. I’ve never thought that until now. Jim Plunkett, the old Oakland Raiders QB, was similar. He was a talented college quarterback, bounced around a bit in the NFL, then had one great season leading the Raiders to a Super Bowl victory over crying Dick Vermeil and the Philadelphia Eagles. Like a complete crackhead, I’m going against everything I know about Plummer already, and saying he does a 180. This is your year Jake Plummer.
The Broncs defense is very, very good. Their linebackers may be the fastest unit in the NFL, led by DJ Williams. If the defensive line continues to be solid (after all coming over from Cleveland), I could see a top-5 D in Denver.
Javon Walker is poised to either have a great comeback season or be a bust. Denver winning the Super Bowl indicates the former.
There are, of course, plenty of reasons why Denver will not win the Super Bowl. Jake Plummer, the lack of a star running back, and Mike Shannahan’s habit of over-complicating things are three. However, I’ve decided to go kind of nuts here and throw out the Broncos as my pick. Yes, they did make the AFC Championship last season, but no one really thought they were that good. Also, keep in mind that both Jake Plummer and Javon Walker ended up on the Hokie Thugs Fantasy Football team. Instant doom. Denver will probably end up 5-11 now. My picks, completely making up projected records for each team:
AFC
East
New England 10-6
Miami 9-7
Buffalo 5-11
NY Jets 3-13
North
Pittsburgh 11-5
Cleveland 9-7
Cincinnati 9-7
Baltimore 7-9
South
Indianapolis 12-4
Jacksonville 9-7
Tennessee 4-12
Houston 4-12
West
Denver 11-5
San Diego 10-6
Kansas City 7-9
Oakland 6-10
NFC
East
Washington 10-6
Dallas 9-7
NY Giants 9-7
Philadelphia 7-9
North
Chicago 10-6
Green Bay 7-9
Minnesota 7-9
Detroit 6-10
South
Carolina 12-4
Tampa Bay 10-6
Atlanta 8-8
New Orleans 5-11
West
Seattle 10-6
Arizona 8-8
St Louis 8-8
San Francisco 4-12
Playoffs
Wild Card Weekend
Pittsburgh over Cleveland
New England over San Diego
Dallas over Chicago
Seattle over Tampa Bay
Divisional Playoffs
Denver over Pittsburgh
Indianapolis over New England
Carolina over Dallas
Washington over Seattle
Championship Games
Denver over Indianapolis
Carolina over Washington
Super Bowl XXXXI
Denver 31 Carolina 21
I know I’m going to catch some serious heat for putting the home team in the Super Bowl, then having them lose. And, of course, I generally (always) refuse to pick “my team” to win anything, being so pessimistic. That being said…
I’m concerned with a few areas for the Panthers this year. Linebacker is a major concern because when Dan Morgan gets his yearly concussion and is out for three games, we will have three new starters at LB. Major problem. The depth is good on the defensive front four, but I am still concerned about our free safety position. The Panthers’ pass coverage is typically as good as its rush; translation being if they are not pressuring the QB, the secondary becomes increasingly vulnerable.
Offensively, Steve Smith’s current hamstring problem is ominous for his year. Let’s face it: he’s just not going to have another 1,400 yd season. But, if he has a 1,100-1,200 yard season and Keyshawn/Colbert/Carter have another 1,200-1,400 yards between them, then we’re doing just fine. I’ve gone on record twice as being skeptical of drafting DeAngelo Williams, but it would be nice for his “home run” potential to pay off this season. It’s funny: three years ago, DeShaun Foster was our “home run” back while Stephen Davis logged all the tough yards. That makes me a little uncomfortable with Foster being the sole feature back.
Finally, the Panthers will need some good old fashioned luck. Injuries are a problem for all teams, but the Panthers had them occur at the worst possible time last season (i.e. during the playoffs). Staying healthy throughout would sure be nice for once. Let’s knock on wood the Jake Delhomme does not suffer a major injury of any sort, as Chris Weinke looks much better in a ballcap that covers his bald noggin on the sideline than he does quarterbacking the Panthers. Most Carolina fans would agree that this team has the most talent and potential of any team in the franchise’s existence, so let’s hope it culminates in a Super Bowl Championship.
But if the Broncos beat the Panthers in the Super Bowl, I’ll either become the next Miss Cleo or run for my life.
Stand and cheer for the Panthers…
Also, most years, I preview the NFL by examining schedules, timing of games, transactions, etc. This year? I’m just putting down what I think about each team and that’s it. No rocket science going on over here.
Now, are you ready for some football? Here’s the preview:
Who’s Good: Denver, Indy, Pittsburgh, New England, probably Cincinnati, Carolina, the NFC East sans Philly, Tampa Bay maybe, and I guess Seattle.
Who’s Bad: Houston, NY Jets, Buffalo, Tennessee, Oakland, San Fran, the NFC North, the NFC West
Who has Potential: Baltimore (I say that every year. Sigh), Atlanta, Miami, Cleveland.
Last year, I was pushing Chicago before the season started. I told my buddy Gramps that Da Bears could be 9-7 good. They weren’t; they were better (I also had Baltimore in the AFC Championship. Nice). I don’t have a feeling on anyone this season like that. Cleveland strikes me as the type of team that could evolve into a “Run, run, run, punt, play defense, improve field position, kick field goal, win by 3 points” team. The whole “Charlie Frye is our QB” thing bothers me, but he can’t be worse than what they’ve had before. Plus, I have Reuben Droughns in the Phi Alpha Gamma Fantasy Football League, so he’s due for a breakout season. Or a broken-in-half season.
As for winning the Super Bowl, most “experts” have favored Indianapolis, Carolina, Seattle, Pittsburgh, and a few New England. I picked the Pats three straight years, keeping with Ric Flair’s “To be the man, whooo, ya gotta beat the man” motto. New England was beaten by Denver last season, opening up the door for the Steelers. Now, picking a winner is tougher for me. There is no favorite in my eyes, so I’m going to do something stupid. I’m picking…the Denver Broncos. Reasons:
Jake Plummer strikes me as the type of QB who chokes year after year, is constantly criticized by the media and fans, underachieves, and then, all of a sudden, wins a Super Bowl. I’ve never thought that until now. Jim Plunkett, the old Oakland Raiders QB, was similar. He was a talented college quarterback, bounced around a bit in the NFL, then had one great season leading the Raiders to a Super Bowl victory over crying Dick Vermeil and the Philadelphia Eagles. Like a complete crackhead, I’m going against everything I know about Plummer already, and saying he does a 180. This is your year Jake Plummer.
The Broncs defense is very, very good. Their linebackers may be the fastest unit in the NFL, led by DJ Williams. If the defensive line continues to be solid (after all coming over from Cleveland), I could see a top-5 D in Denver.
Javon Walker is poised to either have a great comeback season or be a bust. Denver winning the Super Bowl indicates the former.
There are, of course, plenty of reasons why Denver will not win the Super Bowl. Jake Plummer, the lack of a star running back, and Mike Shannahan’s habit of over-complicating things are three. However, I’ve decided to go kind of nuts here and throw out the Broncos as my pick. Yes, they did make the AFC Championship last season, but no one really thought they were that good. Also, keep in mind that both Jake Plummer and Javon Walker ended up on the Hokie Thugs Fantasy Football team. Instant doom. Denver will probably end up 5-11 now. My picks, completely making up projected records for each team:
AFC
East
New England 10-6
Miami 9-7
Buffalo 5-11
NY Jets 3-13
North
Pittsburgh 11-5
Cleveland 9-7
Cincinnati 9-7
Baltimore 7-9
South
Indianapolis 12-4
Jacksonville 9-7
Tennessee 4-12
Houston 4-12
West
Denver 11-5
San Diego 10-6
Kansas City 7-9
Oakland 6-10
NFC
East
Washington 10-6
Dallas 9-7
NY Giants 9-7
Philadelphia 7-9
North
Chicago 10-6
Green Bay 7-9
Minnesota 7-9
Detroit 6-10
South
Carolina 12-4
Tampa Bay 10-6
Atlanta 8-8
New Orleans 5-11
West
Seattle 10-6
Arizona 8-8
St Louis 8-8
San Francisco 4-12
Playoffs
Wild Card Weekend
Pittsburgh over Cleveland
New England over San Diego
Dallas over Chicago
Seattle over Tampa Bay
Divisional Playoffs
Denver over Pittsburgh
Indianapolis over New England
Carolina over Dallas
Washington over Seattle
Championship Games
Denver over Indianapolis
Carolina over Washington
Super Bowl XXXXI
Denver 31 Carolina 21
I know I’m going to catch some serious heat for putting the home team in the Super Bowl, then having them lose. And, of course, I generally (always) refuse to pick “my team” to win anything, being so pessimistic. That being said…
I’m concerned with a few areas for the Panthers this year. Linebacker is a major concern because when Dan Morgan gets his yearly concussion and is out for three games, we will have three new starters at LB. Major problem. The depth is good on the defensive front four, but I am still concerned about our free safety position. The Panthers’ pass coverage is typically as good as its rush; translation being if they are not pressuring the QB, the secondary becomes increasingly vulnerable.
Offensively, Steve Smith’s current hamstring problem is ominous for his year. Let’s face it: he’s just not going to have another 1,400 yd season. But, if he has a 1,100-1,200 yard season and Keyshawn/Colbert/Carter have another 1,200-1,400 yards between them, then we’re doing just fine. I’ve gone on record twice as being skeptical of drafting DeAngelo Williams, but it would be nice for his “home run” potential to pay off this season. It’s funny: three years ago, DeShaun Foster was our “home run” back while Stephen Davis logged all the tough yards. That makes me a little uncomfortable with Foster being the sole feature back.
Finally, the Panthers will need some good old fashioned luck. Injuries are a problem for all teams, but the Panthers had them occur at the worst possible time last season (i.e. during the playoffs). Staying healthy throughout would sure be nice for once. Let’s knock on wood the Jake Delhomme does not suffer a major injury of any sort, as Chris Weinke looks much better in a ballcap that covers his bald noggin on the sideline than he does quarterbacking the Panthers. Most Carolina fans would agree that this team has the most talent and potential of any team in the franchise’s existence, so let’s hope it culminates in a Super Bowl Championship.
But if the Broncos beat the Panthers in the Super Bowl, I’ll either become the next Miss Cleo or run for my life.
Stand and cheer for the Panthers…
Monday, September 04, 2006
College Football Preview
I know, I know...way to make a college football preview after the first weekend of games. In truth, the only game I saw much of all weekend long was Notre Dame's slugfest victory at Georgia Tech. Because of work, I saw about six minutes of Virginia Tech's 38-0 shutout of I-AA Northeastern, but otherwise, saw no one else play. Therefore, I don't feel too bad about making these selections until now.
I will point out that Cal obviously will not be in my national title game after bombing on the road at Tennessee, nor will Louisville after Michael Bush's leg injury, ending his season. My former employer, Clemson University, also suffered a season-ending loss when star MLB Anthony Waters tore his ACL. Both Louisville and Clemson are league title contenders, but have now lost irreplaceable parts of their offense and defense respectively.
On a side note, I'm sitting here at the office watching FSU/Miami. These teams are going to absolutely kill one another. Someone will be broken in half, it's unreal. Even though both team have been down a little bit in recent years, the speed, tackling, and intensity of each is unmatched in Division I. It is certainly a rivalry that I must attend at some point in the future.
Now, on to my season predictions. In the ACC, I like Florida St. As I write that sentence, the Seminoles trail Miami 10-3 at halftime, but I'm sticking with my gut and with my opinion prior to this game. In fact, a rematch of these two teams in Jacksonville for the ACC title looks good to me right now. I'm not sold on my present employer, Virginia Tech, nor the consistency of Georgia Tech over the year. The Jackets lack intensity against lesser opponents and seem to always lose a game or two each year that they shouldn't. Boston College will be tough in the Atlantic division, but FSU comes out on top in the end.
The Big East is now West Virginia's to lose. If the Mountaineers do not go undefeated this season, it will be because of Louisville or Pittsburgh. Both games are on the road on Thursday nights. Prior to Bush's injury in the blowout against Kentucky, I really liked Louisville. All the pre-season attention was on West Virginia, and Louisville was quietly waiting to have their moment. Now, their Heisman candidate is done and so are their national title hopes. I will save myself the typing time and just pick West Virginia as the winner of the Big East, leaving the only question as whether or not the Mountaineers are playing on January 8th.
The Big Ten comes down to three teams in my mind. Ohio St, Michigan, and Iowa are all poised for good seasons. Penn St will also be a contender, but they seem to have a tougher schedule than the other three. Ultimately, Ohio St is the best team of the three. The Buckeyes will make a return to the Rose Bowl this season by winning the Big Ten.
The Big 12 has only four decent teams from what I can tell. Nebraska will have a solid record based solely on playing the North Division. The other five teams each have major flaws. Texas Tech is its usual self, another ho-hum 9-3 year on the horizon. Very good, but not big enough or physical enough to beat Texas or OU. Therefore, the division comes down to the Red River Shootout (excuse me, Red River Rivalry) between the Horns and Sooners. I'm going with Texas. Get'em Mack.
The Pac-10 is not worthy of a paragraph. I might have given Cal a few sentences prior to Saturday, but no more. UCLA, Oregon, and Arizona will be ok, as will the Golden Bears once they figure out what happened at Tennessee. USC is head, shoulders, knees, and toes better than the rest of the league...still.
The SEC will be sick. Just sick. Florida, Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama, Auburn, and LSU are all capable of making the SEC Championship in Atlanta. I'm going with Auburn in the West, as the Tigers' schedule is more manageable than 'Bama or LSU. In the East, South Carolina actually has a favorable schedule as well, with road games at Vandy, Mississsippi St (already won), and Kentucky, along with a homecoming for the Ole Ball Coach at the Swamp in Gainesville. However, the best teams win no matter where they are playing; I don't think the Gamecocks are the best team. Tennessee's season last year was an aberration, as 5-6 will not become the norm in Knoxville. However, I'm not convinced that the QB situation or depth is settled enough for the Vols to win the SEC East. Therefore, the matchup between Florida and Georgia, formerly known as "The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party," will once again decide the division. Though Florida has the more-seasoned QB in fellow Independence alum Chris Leak, I think the toughness, tailback depth, and defensive pressure of Georgia will be the difference. However, I'm taking Auburn over Georgia in the SEC Championship, as the Tigers defeat the Bulldogs for the second time in the season to advance to the BCS.
I have not yet mentioned Notre Dame in my preview, as the Irish are not affiliated with any of the six BCS leagues. Pre-season expectations and hype aside, I just do not think Notre Dame can survive its brutal schedule unscathed. Home games with Penn St, Michigan, and UCLA combined with trips to East Lansing and sunny So-Cal is just so tough.
The National Championship picture is cloudier this season than many in recent memory. Good teams galore, but all with major faults. There is no 2001 Miami, 1996 Nebraska, 2004/2005 USC in this bunch. Looking at the schedules, Texas, Ohio St, Notre Dame, Southern Cal, Auburn, West Virginia and Florida St all have a shot to go undefeated. They could each lose two games as well. Let's look at each quickly:
I will point out that Cal obviously will not be in my national title game after bombing on the road at Tennessee, nor will Louisville after Michael Bush's leg injury, ending his season. My former employer, Clemson University, also suffered a season-ending loss when star MLB Anthony Waters tore his ACL. Both Louisville and Clemson are league title contenders, but have now lost irreplaceable parts of their offense and defense respectively.
On a side note, I'm sitting here at the office watching FSU/Miami. These teams are going to absolutely kill one another. Someone will be broken in half, it's unreal. Even though both team have been down a little bit in recent years, the speed, tackling, and intensity of each is unmatched in Division I. It is certainly a rivalry that I must attend at some point in the future.
Now, on to my season predictions. In the ACC, I like Florida St. As I write that sentence, the Seminoles trail Miami 10-3 at halftime, but I'm sticking with my gut and with my opinion prior to this game. In fact, a rematch of these two teams in Jacksonville for the ACC title looks good to me right now. I'm not sold on my present employer, Virginia Tech, nor the consistency of Georgia Tech over the year. The Jackets lack intensity against lesser opponents and seem to always lose a game or two each year that they shouldn't. Boston College will be tough in the Atlantic division, but FSU comes out on top in the end.
The Big East is now West Virginia's to lose. If the Mountaineers do not go undefeated this season, it will be because of Louisville or Pittsburgh. Both games are on the road on Thursday nights. Prior to Bush's injury in the blowout against Kentucky, I really liked Louisville. All the pre-season attention was on West Virginia, and Louisville was quietly waiting to have their moment. Now, their Heisman candidate is done and so are their national title hopes. I will save myself the typing time and just pick West Virginia as the winner of the Big East, leaving the only question as whether or not the Mountaineers are playing on January 8th.
The Big Ten comes down to three teams in my mind. Ohio St, Michigan, and Iowa are all poised for good seasons. Penn St will also be a contender, but they seem to have a tougher schedule than the other three. Ultimately, Ohio St is the best team of the three. The Buckeyes will make a return to the Rose Bowl this season by winning the Big Ten.
The Big 12 has only four decent teams from what I can tell. Nebraska will have a solid record based solely on playing the North Division. The other five teams each have major flaws. Texas Tech is its usual self, another ho-hum 9-3 year on the horizon. Very good, but not big enough or physical enough to beat Texas or OU. Therefore, the division comes down to the Red River Shootout (excuse me, Red River Rivalry) between the Horns and Sooners. I'm going with Texas. Get'em Mack.
The Pac-10 is not worthy of a paragraph. I might have given Cal a few sentences prior to Saturday, but no more. UCLA, Oregon, and Arizona will be ok, as will the Golden Bears once they figure out what happened at Tennessee. USC is head, shoulders, knees, and toes better than the rest of the league...still.
The SEC will be sick. Just sick. Florida, Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama, Auburn, and LSU are all capable of making the SEC Championship in Atlanta. I'm going with Auburn in the West, as the Tigers' schedule is more manageable than 'Bama or LSU. In the East, South Carolina actually has a favorable schedule as well, with road games at Vandy, Mississsippi St (already won), and Kentucky, along with a homecoming for the Ole Ball Coach at the Swamp in Gainesville. However, the best teams win no matter where they are playing; I don't think the Gamecocks are the best team. Tennessee's season last year was an aberration, as 5-6 will not become the norm in Knoxville. However, I'm not convinced that the QB situation or depth is settled enough for the Vols to win the SEC East. Therefore, the matchup between Florida and Georgia, formerly known as "The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party," will once again decide the division. Though Florida has the more-seasoned QB in fellow Independence alum Chris Leak, I think the toughness, tailback depth, and defensive pressure of Georgia will be the difference. However, I'm taking Auburn over Georgia in the SEC Championship, as the Tigers defeat the Bulldogs for the second time in the season to advance to the BCS.
I have not yet mentioned Notre Dame in my preview, as the Irish are not affiliated with any of the six BCS leagues. Pre-season expectations and hype aside, I just do not think Notre Dame can survive its brutal schedule unscathed. Home games with Penn St, Michigan, and UCLA combined with trips to East Lansing and sunny So-Cal is just so tough.
The National Championship picture is cloudier this season than many in recent memory. Good teams galore, but all with major faults. There is no 2001 Miami, 1996 Nebraska, 2004/2005 USC in this bunch. Looking at the schedules, Texas, Ohio St, Notre Dame, Southern Cal, Auburn, West Virginia and Florida St all have a shot to go undefeated. They could each lose two games as well. Let's look at each quickly:
- Texas: Can afford loss to Ohio St. Season decided on last two weeks in October with back-to-back trips to Nebraska and Texas Tech. Rematch with the Cornhuskers in the Big 12 Championship for a BCS berth.
- Ohio St: Can afford loss at Texas. I think they'll go undefeated in the Big Ten, so 11-1 is looking good for OSU.
- Notre Dame: I'm not sure who they will lose to, but I just have a feeling they'll drop a game before losing at USC. 10-2 and a BCS berth.
- USC: There is just no loss on this schedule. Last three games are all at home versus Oregon, Cal, and Notre Dame. I really think they could run the table again.
- Auburn: I honestly think they are the best team, but the SEC is like the NFL Junior. There has to be a loss somewhere in there for the Tigers.
- West VA: Favorable schedule, yes. Talent, yes. Experience...not really. I may regret doubting them, but I just cannot see this team going undefeated. All the pressure is on them this year, the bull's eye on their back. Somewhere, a loss will occur. BCS, yes; Nat'l Title, no.
- Florida St: As I am typing this, FSU leads Miami 13-10. My thought coming into tonight was "if FSU wins at Miami, they might play for the title." Road games at NC State and Maryland are ahead, along with home matchups featuring Clemson, BC, and Florida. Of course, the ACC Championship game would be a stop on the road to the title game as well. I'm going to say FSU does not go undefeated or play for the national title; but I'm telling you, they are going to be really good and it would not surprise me if they made a run.
What does all of this mean? I have no clue what is going to happen this year.
Rose Bowl: Ohio St vs USC
Orange Bowl: Florida St vs West Virginia
Sugar Bowl: Notre Dame vs LSU
Fiesta Bowl: TCU vs Iowa
BCS Championship: Auburn vs Texas
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