I will point out that Cal obviously will not be in my national title game after bombing on the road at Tennessee, nor will Louisville after Michael Bush's leg injury, ending his season. My former employer, Clemson University, also suffered a season-ending loss when star MLB Anthony Waters tore his ACL. Both Louisville and Clemson are league title contenders, but have now lost irreplaceable parts of their offense and defense respectively.
On a side note, I'm sitting here at the office watching FSU/Miami. These teams are going to absolutely kill one another. Someone will be broken in half, it's unreal. Even though both team have been down a little bit in recent years, the speed, tackling, and intensity of each is unmatched in Division I. It is certainly a rivalry that I must attend at some point in the future.
Now, on to my season predictions. In the ACC, I like Florida St. As I write that sentence, the Seminoles trail Miami 10-3 at halftime, but I'm sticking with my gut and with my opinion prior to this game. In fact, a rematch of these two teams in Jacksonville for the ACC title looks good to me right now. I'm not sold on my present employer, Virginia Tech, nor the consistency of Georgia Tech over the year. The Jackets lack intensity against lesser opponents and seem to always lose a game or two each year that they shouldn't. Boston College will be tough in the Atlantic division, but FSU comes out on top in the end.
The Big East is now West Virginia's to lose. If the Mountaineers do not go undefeated this season, it will be because of Louisville or Pittsburgh. Both games are on the road on Thursday nights. Prior to Bush's injury in the blowout against Kentucky, I really liked Louisville. All the pre-season attention was on West Virginia, and Louisville was quietly waiting to have their moment. Now, their Heisman candidate is done and so are their national title hopes. I will save myself the typing time and just pick West Virginia as the winner of the Big East, leaving the only question as whether or not the Mountaineers are playing on January 8th.
The Big Ten comes down to three teams in my mind. Ohio St, Michigan, and Iowa are all poised for good seasons. Penn St will also be a contender, but they seem to have a tougher schedule than the other three. Ultimately, Ohio St is the best team of the three. The Buckeyes will make a return to the Rose Bowl this season by winning the Big Ten.
The Big 12 has only four decent teams from what I can tell. Nebraska will have a solid record based solely on playing the North Division. The other five teams each have major flaws. Texas Tech is its usual self, another ho-hum 9-3 year on the horizon. Very good, but not big enough or physical enough to beat Texas or OU. Therefore, the division comes down to the Red River Shootout (excuse me, Red River Rivalry) between the Horns and Sooners. I'm going with Texas. Get'em Mack.
The Pac-10 is not worthy of a paragraph. I might have given Cal a few sentences prior to Saturday, but no more. UCLA, Oregon, and Arizona will be ok, as will the Golden Bears once they figure out what happened at Tennessee. USC is head, shoulders, knees, and toes better than the rest of the league...still.
The SEC will be sick. Just sick. Florida, Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama, Auburn, and LSU are all capable of making the SEC Championship in Atlanta. I'm going with Auburn in the West, as the Tigers' schedule is more manageable than 'Bama or LSU. In the East, South Carolina actually has a favorable schedule as well, with road games at Vandy, Mississsippi St (already won), and Kentucky, along with a homecoming for the Ole Ball Coach at the Swamp in Gainesville. However, the best teams win no matter where they are playing; I don't think the Gamecocks are the best team. Tennessee's season last year was an aberration, as 5-6 will not become the norm in Knoxville. However, I'm not convinced that the QB situation or depth is settled enough for the Vols to win the SEC East. Therefore, the matchup between Florida and Georgia, formerly known as "The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party," will once again decide the division. Though Florida has the more-seasoned QB in fellow Independence alum Chris Leak, I think the toughness, tailback depth, and defensive pressure of Georgia will be the difference. However, I'm taking Auburn over Georgia in the SEC Championship, as the Tigers defeat the Bulldogs for the second time in the season to advance to the BCS.
I have not yet mentioned Notre Dame in my preview, as the Irish are not affiliated with any of the six BCS leagues. Pre-season expectations and hype aside, I just do not think Notre Dame can survive its brutal schedule unscathed. Home games with Penn St, Michigan, and UCLA combined with trips to East Lansing and sunny So-Cal is just so tough.
The National Championship picture is cloudier this season than many in recent memory. Good teams galore, but all with major faults. There is no 2001 Miami, 1996 Nebraska, 2004/2005 USC in this bunch. Looking at the schedules, Texas, Ohio St, Notre Dame, Southern Cal, Auburn, West Virginia and Florida St all have a shot to go undefeated. They could each lose two games as well. Let's look at each quickly:
- Texas: Can afford loss to Ohio St. Season decided on last two weeks in October with back-to-back trips to Nebraska and Texas Tech. Rematch with the Cornhuskers in the Big 12 Championship for a BCS berth.
- Ohio St: Can afford loss at Texas. I think they'll go undefeated in the Big Ten, so 11-1 is looking good for OSU.
- Notre Dame: I'm not sure who they will lose to, but I just have a feeling they'll drop a game before losing at USC. 10-2 and a BCS berth.
- USC: There is just no loss on this schedule. Last three games are all at home versus Oregon, Cal, and Notre Dame. I really think they could run the table again.
- Auburn: I honestly think they are the best team, but the SEC is like the NFL Junior. There has to be a loss somewhere in there for the Tigers.
- West VA: Favorable schedule, yes. Talent, yes. Experience...not really. I may regret doubting them, but I just cannot see this team going undefeated. All the pressure is on them this year, the bull's eye on their back. Somewhere, a loss will occur. BCS, yes; Nat'l Title, no.
- Florida St: As I am typing this, FSU leads Miami 13-10. My thought coming into tonight was "if FSU wins at Miami, they might play for the title." Road games at NC State and Maryland are ahead, along with home matchups featuring Clemson, BC, and Florida. Of course, the ACC Championship game would be a stop on the road to the title game as well. I'm going to say FSU does not go undefeated or play for the national title; but I'm telling you, they are going to be really good and it would not surprise me if they made a run.
What does all of this mean? I have no clue what is going to happen this year.
Rose Bowl: Ohio St vs USC
Orange Bowl: Florida St vs West Virginia
Sugar Bowl: Notre Dame vs LSU
Fiesta Bowl: TCU vs Iowa
BCS Championship: Auburn vs Texas
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