State of the Union: Charlotte Bobcats

The 2009-2010 season ended for the Charlotte Bobcats tonight, a 4-0 series sweep at the hands of the defending Eastern Conference Champion Orlando Magic. The series was never in doubt, as all but one game was won easily by Orlando. While I think most people who really follow them (all six of us) knew this was an awful matchup for the Cats, a number of national media types and analysts thought Charlotte had a chance to spring an upset or at least test Orlando. So much for that. Dwight Howard was a virtual non-factor in all four games, yet Orlando dominated most of the series. Jameer Nelson, Rashard Lewis, Vince Carter, etc...each had a hand in the series win. Now, with the season officially over following the Bobcats' first ever playoff appearance, we must address what's next. Who stays, who goes, who coaches: a Bobcats State of the Union.

First, we need to acknowledge where this current team is. As constructed, the Bobcats just about maximized their potential this season. A better first-round matchup might have allowed for a playoff win or two, perhaps even stealing one series, but that is it. Charlotte wins games when they out-hustle & out-focus opponents. However, that is not an effective formula for playoff wins when everyone is engaged and ready to go. So, this exact team is not going to do much better than this.

Second, all decisions are going to be made in relation to the salary cap. Hoopshype has an organized, easy-to-follow NBA Salaries section, which any fan of the league should reference when considering his or her team's moves. Seriously, take two minutes to click the link and see how things break down for the Bobcats and others, it is much easier than you think. Now, we can assume Tyson Chandler will exercise his Player Option for a sparkling $12.75 million (yay!). Obviously that sucks, but this was known when the Bobcats traded for him in exchange for Emeka Okafor's ridiculously terrible contract that has four more years on it. The $59.536 million total the Bobcats are on the hook for is about $9 million below the estimated luxury tax threshold for 2010-2011, but that does not include Raymond Felton being re-signed or getting someone to take his place, nor does it account for any drafted players. It does, however, take into account a potential qualifying offer for Tyrus Thomas.

Speaking of, that brings us to the third item for the upcoming off-season: who to re-sign. I don't so much want to speculate much about who potential free agents might be to target, but maybe we can at least establish who might be back. I actually think Felton could return in spite of a ridiculously poor effort against Jameer Nelson in the playoff series. The reason is two-fold: 1) Felton's cost just went down a bit, as other teams are not going to be anxious to sign him and sell their fan base on it being a good move; and 2) Felton wants to stay in Charlotte and continue growing under Larry Brown (assuming he is back as coach...more on that later). An issue for the Cats is that by my count, Ray is one of only three current starting PG's who are on the open market this summer: Felton, Derek Fisher, & Chris Duhon. Add in guys like Steve Blake, Luke Ridnour, potentially Jordan Farmar & TJ Ford among others, and what you get is a terrible class of free agent point guards. Felton looks like Isaiah Thomas in comparison to those guys, so we'll see if the dearth of quality lead guards drives up his price and force Charlotte to move in a different direction.

The team's other major free agent decision is what to do about Ty Thomas. Acquired from Chicago to provide depth up front, Thomas has been his typical erratic self: invisible for two games, then great off the bench for two games...rinse, repeat. The kid has a ton of athletic ability and a good jumper from eighteen feet, but he has the label of being difficult to keep dialed in and lacks a great deal of basketball IQ. Taking a one-year deal from Charlotte at $6.25 million and trying to play his value up for the following summer might be in Thomas' best interest. But, can Charlotte afford that price? The answer lies in the next point.

And that point, #4 if you're keeping count, is who gets traded? MJ already alluded to the high likelihood that some trades will be made this summer. Between His Airness and His Suitcaseness, you know they will be trying to move some guys out. This team has no first-round draft pick and no really promising young players, unless there is a midget league looking to sign Augustin. We just established that the team is perilously close to the luxury tax line if they re-sign Felton & Thomas, not to mention Larry Hughes or his replacement. Therefore, some moves to clear some space and/or acquire some better players will have to be made.

At this point, Charlotte is probably willing to discuss anyone except Gerald Wallace or Stephen Jackson (unless a great offer was made). Boris Diaw or Thomas will end up playing power forward, but I don't think both stay on the team. Diaw has two years and $18 million left on his contract, but he is really a poor fit playing alongside Jackson (who has the ball in his hands a lot, making it hard for Diaw to facilitate) and the invisible man who plays center (Diaw needs a tough, defensive-minded big man next to him to cover up his PLAP tendencies). The Frenchman can be had for cheap and someone like Mike D'Antoni and the Knicks might be willing to make a deal after the July 1st free agent shakedown. Otherwise, again, everyone but Crash & Captain Jack had better be renting.

Fifth, and perhaps most important, the Bobcats must figure out who is going to be their coach. Will Suitcase Larry return to continue building this organization? A month ago, it sounded like a no. Two weeks ago, it sounded more likely. Now, it is back to no. This is unfortunately what you get with Larry Brown: rebuilding, trading, making progress, limited success...then the rumors and ultimately, a peace sign as he walks out the door. While I hope Coach Brown returns, I just don't see it happening. Too many rumors and reports for there to not be fire behind this smoke. Changing coaches means changing philosophies, changing players, changing needs, changing underwear...I feel like Tupac. Continuity means so much to a professional sports organization, especially in the NBA (see Spurs, San Antonio) and another complete turnover is not what the Bobcats need.

As you can tell, I am not particularly high on the NBA Championship potential of the Bobcats, next year or anytime soon. This team lacks the stud player needed to win a title and can't draft one (oddly, they've never sucked bad enough unless you count the time we drafted third and took Adam Morri-...%#&@*#) and won't be able to sign one (not enough $ or ability to lure someone to play for a non-descript franchise in a college market). They have too many dollars committed to guys who are average players or worse and probably will have their fourth coach in five seasons. The current team has hit its ceiling and the flexibility needed to take the next step is missing.

This summer will be very important for the Bobcats. A 45-37 record, a playoff appearance, a new owner who happens to have grown up in the state and the greatest player in the history of professional basketball...the momentum is there, but it has to be sustained. Somehow, the front office has to convince Larry Brown to commit to staying and must make the personnel moves that will maximize the roster. The wild card in Rod Higgins' pocket is $19.5 million in expiring contracts that another team might be willing to take on in exchange for an expensive piece or two with long-term deals (Chandler & Nazi). I'll be interested to see how the organization comes out of the summer and if they continue going in the right direction. Hopefully this time next year, the Bobcats will still be playing basketball and might can double its devoted fan base from 6 to 12. Time will tell.