Gotta Go Shopping: Okafor Trade Analysis

You know, I had a lot to do tonight. There is a pile of clean laundry (whites & towels) laying under my feet on the sofa. There is more dirty laundry to wash in the foyer. I have a proposal to do for work and a 9:30am meeting to get ready for, not to mention a new employee starting tomorrow (shouts Waddle). Wrestling is on, being hosted by Shaq, and the Cardinals and Dodgers are on ESPN. Most importantly, I have a passport to apply for and a flight to book for a wedding/trip to Canada. So how did I spend my Monday evening?

Because of the Charlotte Bobcats, I was driven to playing the drums, trying a new beverage, and trying to digest the latest trade by MJ & Co.

The drums? A subpar effort on some Billy Joel, Boston, and The Band. New groups to drum to, but not my best. The drink? Orange Crush + Captain = Orange Creamsicle-esque beverage. It was good, but I think it would be better as a frozen treat. The trade? This potential trainwreck.

With the trade still in discussion, I hesitate to write too much on it. However, if I don't write tonight, it's not happening this week. Emeka Okafor for Tyson Chandler, huh? Not so much, 'Cats, not so much.

A few quick notes, then some analysis. First, I find it odd/funny that ESPN.com broke the news of this trade that was apparently agreed to in principle on Friday, as opposed to the Charlotte Observer or a Charlotte news station digging it up. As much as I have defended Rick Bonnell, the Bobcats beat writer for the Observer, it is a bit frustrating that he did not have the scope on this deal first.

Second, Scott Fowler of the Observer has already written an article defending the trade. I know this only because that is what the headline says. I will read his piece only after I finish writing this, as to remain close to my opinion only. However, I would have put $100 that someone, perhaps multiple writers, would defend this trade in the hometown paper. Maybe it is part of the gig; don't totally offend the folks who you need a future story from. And as an amateur blogger, I have no inside information or expert knowledge that a professional might. But, seriously, can someone at this paper please call a spade a spade for once?

And third, this trade (should it happen) is not your average NBA trade for Charlotte. Okafor, though not an NBA superstar (or even All-Star), is/was the face of the Bobcats franchise. He was our first ever draft pick. He is incredibly active in the community. He is unfailingly polite, articulate, and reliable off the court. Though fans may have some frustrations with his lack of offensive development, he still holds a special place within the community. Gerald Wallace might be the team's best player, but Okafor is the most recognizable. A deal like this can only further bury the Bobcats far away from the area's sports spotlight.

Now, let's try and look at this trade objectively. My first reaction, on a -10 to +10 scale (-10 being "I absolutely hate this deal" and +10 being "Oh my Lord, what a steal"), was a -2. After stewing on it for an hour, I went to about a -4. That's where I am as I write this. Why? Let's look at the +/- of the deal:

The negatives:

- Tyson Chandler costs more money short-term than Emeka Okafor. According to Hoops Hype, Chandler is due $11.85 million this season, with a player option (which he will surely exercise) next year for $12.75 million. Okafor is only due $10.5 million in 2009-2010, and $11.5 in 2010-2011. That's about $2.5 million more for Chandler. For a team that is supposedly pinching the pennies just to try and re-sign Raymond Felton and a couple low-dollar free agents, does it really make sense to add salary?

- Tyson Chandler is not as good a player as Emeka Okafor. According to ESPN.com's Trade Machine, this trade would cost the Bobcats 6 wins next season. Chandler's PER is 13.4 while Okafor's is 18.0. Granted, Chandler had a rough, injury-plagued season last season, dropping his PER...which makes me wonder why the Bobcats would trade for him. To further illustrate, consider that Chandler has averaged a double-double in only one season in his career: 2007-2008, thanks in large part to the assists of Chris Paul on his dunks. On the other hand, Okafor has averaged a double-double in all five of his NBA seasons.

- Tyson Chandler has not been as durable a player as Emeka Okafor in recent seasons. Not only did Chandler miss 37 games last year, but he has never played in all 82 games in his career. Okafor has done that both of the last two seasons. In addition, Chandler was traded this past season to Oklahoma City, only to have the trade rescinded due to a failed physical (concern over his toe injury). In fact, New Orleans was so desperate to get rid of him and his salary that they were only getting back Chris Wilcox & Joe Smith in the deal, both of which would have left the Hornets at season's end. Now, instead of dumping Chandler for next to nothing, they get back a durable double-double machine. And the Bobcats get back...well, all of those same issues that made the Hornets want to get rid of Chandler for next to nothing.

- Tyson Chandler, even if healthy and playing at his best, does not bring a lot of what the Bobcats could use. This team really, really needs a big guy who can get easy baskets. Not dunk-off-a-dump-off baskets, but back-your-guy-down-and-score baskets, a la Elton Brand, Tim Duncan, or Pau Gasol. Whether or not this is at power forward or center does not really matter, but it needs to happen. Yes, Boris Diaw is effective as an offensive weapon, but he is not that type of scorer (although I will admit that he's been very good for this team...thus far). For a team to be an efficient offense/tight defense squad, a low-post threat who shoots a high-percentage is necessary.

The positives:

- The Bobcats save a ton of money from 2011-2015. Chandler will likely walk after the end of his deal, or at least earn whatever type of contract he might get from Charlotte (less than what was due Okafor, I'm sure) after two years. That's great, flexibility is key in the NBA. But, that logic also admits a major mistake by the Bobcats' management team: re-signing Okafor to a 6-year deal worth that much money to begin with prior to last season. We just did it! Now, my philosophy is that you only sign marquee, super-duper stars for more than four years and more than $12 million/year at any point in the contract. So yes, I thought the Okafor contract was a bit much when they did it. But, I did see some logic: double-double machine, face of the franchise right now, premium for a big man, and they seemingly had the money to spend (at the time). Since then, the organization has added the $26.5 million over 4 years for Diop & nearly $13 million for 2 more years of VladRad, crippling its short & long term space. In essence, those two added contracts have helped generate the "need" to rid the team of a questionable long-term deal of a solid, if unspectacular, player.

- The Bobcats, specifically Coach Larry Brown, wanted a taller center. This does make some sense. It was clear when Brown signed off on adding Diop to the roster that he values size at the 5-spot. His preference was further driven home by rumors of Samuel Dalembert becoming a Bobcat (he of the equally ridiculous contract). Okafor played center at UCONN, but is a bit undersized at the center position. Long arms, but not a lot of vertical. The really good centers in the league just tear him up (see Howard, Dwight). At the 4-spot, Okafor is way too slow to go out and guard anyone with a face-up game (see Bosh, Chris) and never provided the offense necessary from most power forwards. Chandler, at a legit 7-0, does give Coach Brown a taller, more athletic center. This is honestly a good thing in this trade.

- The Bobcats may have a valuable trade piece for use around January 2011. I believe, and I need to check to make 100% sure, that even after Chandler exercises his player option for 2010-2011, he can still be traded to another team. This would mean the Bobcats would have the ability to trade his $12.75 million worth of salary for another player or two from a team looking to free up cap space after the 2010-2011 season ends. Of course, the Bobcats could also just let Chandler play out his deal and use that cap room to attack a free agent or two of their own: VladRad & Nazi's deals both expire that same summer, meaning that the 'Cats could have as much as $25 million to spend in the summer of 2011. That does require two things to happen though: 1) free agents have to actually agree to play in Charlotte; and 2) the Bobcats have to still exist in Charlotte.

In summary, I see the long-term benefit of this deal after typing all of this out, especially the above point about all the cap room. However, for a team that was "making the playoffs next season" (2009-2010), it sure doesn't look like they have improved in the short-term with this deal. They have further crippled their short-term cap room and no doubt drove away some more fans (do these "fans" even exist?) by trading the face of the franchise. I am therefore officially assigning my trade evaluation as a -3 on this deal. This franchise needed to make a decision to preserve cap room last year or figure out a way to go for it and they made the wrong decision.

As for me, I now have to buy a new Bobcats jersey. My #50 is no longer in style. Personally, I'm planning to wait until this team gives me a long-term player who's worth spending $60 on. Call me in the summer of 2011 I guess.