A tragic update to the below blog entry: Jason Ray, 21, passed away today. A sad situation is now officially tragic. JRay, we love you man. Your spirit will truly live on in the hearts and lives of everyone you touched during your time on this earth. We know you are in heaven now, perfect and praising Jesus. Thank you, Lord, for giving us time with Jason on this earth. We look forward to being reunited with him for eternity thanks to the sacrifice of your Son.
Boffo is defined as, "extremely successful; great." You certainly fit that definition. Much love Jason Ray, we miss you.
Monday, March 26, 2007
Sunday, March 25, 2007
When Basketball Doesn't Matter
There are times in life when you find yourself so absorbed by yourself that nothing else registers in your mind. What I mean is that it is our nature as humans (also known as our sin) to become completely engrossed in Me: what I think, what I want, when I want it, Me. This state of mind comes to different individuals in varying ways. For me, it frequently arises as sports. I become completely and totally engrossed in a particular game or team, blocking out everything else. Two years ago, as Carolina was beginning to make a run at a national championship, I was able to let it all go. The season was not in my control, it was not in our players' control; it was in God's control. This season became much the same the past few weeks. I have watched, cheered, strategized, hoped, and prayed, as I always do, but with a clearer sense that life is much bigger than this particular basketball season. At least I thought I understood that.
Second half. East Regional Semi-Finals. Southern California is kicking my Tar Heel butt. And I really must have thought I was playing. I hollered. I yelled. I screamed at one point. Frustrated and frankly pissed off, I was very close to giving up hope. Translation: I was not just letting it go and turning it over to God. Then Jim Nantz brought the game back from a commercial and basketball ceased to matter.
To summarize, Nantz announced a statement from the University of North Carolina Director of Athletics, Dick Baddour. Jason Ray, a senior from Concord, NC, had been injured in a pedestrian/vehicle accident prior to that evening's game. Ray, who portrays the Ramses mascot, was hit by a car exiting the freeway in New Jersey and was in critical condition at an area hospital. Shocked, I paused the DVR and began to pray. Basketball suddenly did not matter one bit.
JRay is one-of-a-kind. Don't get me wrong, we are not best friends. But, we are definitely friends. He's a guy in my life that I would move through a crowd to say hello to, have a solid conversation, and sincerely mean it when I finished with, "it's good seeing you buddy." Because it's always good to see Jason. He is enthusiastic, passionate, hilarious, and really genuine.
Jason & I share a bond between men. We were in an InterVarsity Bible Study in Morrison Dorm my junior year at Carolina; Jason was a freshmen. BOFFO, as this group became known, was a group of around twenty guys or so who had Jesus in common. We met every week for what was supposed to be an hour and a half or so. Frequently, our fun Tuesday nights would instead last for at least three hours. We cut up, we talked about God, we talked about our lives, and we listened to each other. JRay brought humor and he brought enthusiasm. But, he also brought honesty and a willingness to share. It was rare for a freshman in a group setting be so frank and comfortable talking about stuff. He shared great stories and motivated others to do the same. This group was BOFFO because it was so tight-knit. We were a group of guys from varying backgrounds, of different age, and unique interests. But man, we were close. Green t-shirts, orange letters. BOFFO.
Over the three plus years since our year together, the BOFFO guys have grown up a great deal. That large freshmen class Jason is a part of are now seniors. A number of the rest of us have graduated. We no longer all see each other every day, every week, or even every year. But since my graduation, JRay is someone I have constantly run into. I go to a lot of Tar Heel sporting events, and clearly, so does Ramses. We talked for about an hour last year prior to a home basketball game while killing time. About my job, his classes, girlfriends, life in general, and nothing at all. It was a fun time, just two dudes hanging out and being honest with one another because that's all we know how to be together.
The last time I saw Jason was just last weekend, in Winston-Salem, at the 1st/2nd Round NCAA Tournament games. I only saw him out of costume for a few minutes, but he was in good spirits, of course. My friends and I watched as Ramses directed the Carolina band, pumped up the crowd, and generally acted a fool. But what an enthusiastic, happy fool he was.
As of right now, JRay is still in the hospital. I do not know his exact condition other than what I have been told. His family and closest friends are by his side, providing prayer and support. It does not look good, but things like this never look good. Here's what I do know. Jason Ray is truly an awesome guy, a man who loves God and his friends. He loves life, period. There is no doubt in my mind where his heart is and that he serves God. But his life is not in our control. It is completely up to God as to whether Jason joins Him in heaven now, or later.
I also know this. I always think of JRay with a smile. Everytime I hear a Rage Against the Machine song, I think of him freestyling Rage in our BOFFO group. When I think of my time in college, I think a lot about that BOFFO group and the fun we had, the jokes we still have, the tears we shed, and the close bond of the guys. There are a lot of people that you do not comprehend their impact on your life until something happens. Jason is not one of those people. You are very aware of him and how special he is while you interact with him. To be able to call him a genuine friend is an honor.
There are many others, some who may be reading this, who are much closer to Jason. You are even more blessed than I. You are thinking of inside jokes, funny stories, deep conversations, tears, laughter, and other special times than involve Jason. Treasure those memories.
You see, basketball does not matter. Life matters. Friends matter. Serving Christ and eventually enjoying eternity with Him matters. Yes, Carolina lost tonight to Georgetown to end the season. Choked away the game, quite frankly. Was it fun? Nope. Did it feel good? Not at all. But does it really matter?
I'll write about the NCAA Tournament at some point this week. Analyze the Tar Heels and the upcoming Final Four. Reflect on the season that has been and look ahead to next year. But I'll do it with a heavy heart and a prayerful soul. Please keep Jason Ray, his family, and his friends in your prayers. In BOFFO, we had a verse that we lived by and had embroidered on the back of our t-shirts: Proverbs 27:17. "As iron sharpens iron, so one man sharpens another." It basically means for all men to lift up one another through prayer and your daily walk with God. JRay, that's what we're doing right now. From one BOFFO guy to another, keep fightin'. Know that we love you and are lifting you up always.
Basketball just doesn't matter. Life matters. People matter. And Jason Ray, you matter.
Second half. East Regional Semi-Finals. Southern California is kicking my Tar Heel butt. And I really must have thought I was playing. I hollered. I yelled. I screamed at one point. Frustrated and frankly pissed off, I was very close to giving up hope. Translation: I was not just letting it go and turning it over to God. Then Jim Nantz brought the game back from a commercial and basketball ceased to matter.
To summarize, Nantz announced a statement from the University of North Carolina Director of Athletics, Dick Baddour. Jason Ray, a senior from Concord, NC, had been injured in a pedestrian/vehicle accident prior to that evening's game. Ray, who portrays the Ramses mascot, was hit by a car exiting the freeway in New Jersey and was in critical condition at an area hospital. Shocked, I paused the DVR and began to pray. Basketball suddenly did not matter one bit.
JRay is one-of-a-kind. Don't get me wrong, we are not best friends. But, we are definitely friends. He's a guy in my life that I would move through a crowd to say hello to, have a solid conversation, and sincerely mean it when I finished with, "it's good seeing you buddy." Because it's always good to see Jason. He is enthusiastic, passionate, hilarious, and really genuine.
Jason & I share a bond between men. We were in an InterVarsity Bible Study in Morrison Dorm my junior year at Carolina; Jason was a freshmen. BOFFO, as this group became known, was a group of around twenty guys or so who had Jesus in common. We met every week for what was supposed to be an hour and a half or so. Frequently, our fun Tuesday nights would instead last for at least three hours. We cut up, we talked about God, we talked about our lives, and we listened to each other. JRay brought humor and he brought enthusiasm. But, he also brought honesty and a willingness to share. It was rare for a freshman in a group setting be so frank and comfortable talking about stuff. He shared great stories and motivated others to do the same. This group was BOFFO because it was so tight-knit. We were a group of guys from varying backgrounds, of different age, and unique interests. But man, we were close. Green t-shirts, orange letters. BOFFO.
Over the three plus years since our year together, the BOFFO guys have grown up a great deal. That large freshmen class Jason is a part of are now seniors. A number of the rest of us have graduated. We no longer all see each other every day, every week, or even every year. But since my graduation, JRay is someone I have constantly run into. I go to a lot of Tar Heel sporting events, and clearly, so does Ramses. We talked for about an hour last year prior to a home basketball game while killing time. About my job, his classes, girlfriends, life in general, and nothing at all. It was a fun time, just two dudes hanging out and being honest with one another because that's all we know how to be together.
The last time I saw Jason was just last weekend, in Winston-Salem, at the 1st/2nd Round NCAA Tournament games. I only saw him out of costume for a few minutes, but he was in good spirits, of course. My friends and I watched as Ramses directed the Carolina band, pumped up the crowd, and generally acted a fool. But what an enthusiastic, happy fool he was.
As of right now, JRay is still in the hospital. I do not know his exact condition other than what I have been told. His family and closest friends are by his side, providing prayer and support. It does not look good, but things like this never look good. Here's what I do know. Jason Ray is truly an awesome guy, a man who loves God and his friends. He loves life, period. There is no doubt in my mind where his heart is and that he serves God. But his life is not in our control. It is completely up to God as to whether Jason joins Him in heaven now, or later.
I also know this. I always think of JRay with a smile. Everytime I hear a Rage Against the Machine song, I think of him freestyling Rage in our BOFFO group. When I think of my time in college, I think a lot about that BOFFO group and the fun we had, the jokes we still have, the tears we shed, and the close bond of the guys. There are a lot of people that you do not comprehend their impact on your life until something happens. Jason is not one of those people. You are very aware of him and how special he is while you interact with him. To be able to call him a genuine friend is an honor.
There are many others, some who may be reading this, who are much closer to Jason. You are even more blessed than I. You are thinking of inside jokes, funny stories, deep conversations, tears, laughter, and other special times than involve Jason. Treasure those memories.
You see, basketball does not matter. Life matters. Friends matter. Serving Christ and eventually enjoying eternity with Him matters. Yes, Carolina lost tonight to Georgetown to end the season. Choked away the game, quite frankly. Was it fun? Nope. Did it feel good? Not at all. But does it really matter?
I'll write about the NCAA Tournament at some point this week. Analyze the Tar Heels and the upcoming Final Four. Reflect on the season that has been and look ahead to next year. But I'll do it with a heavy heart and a prayerful soul. Please keep Jason Ray, his family, and his friends in your prayers. In BOFFO, we had a verse that we lived by and had embroidered on the back of our t-shirts: Proverbs 27:17. "As iron sharpens iron, so one man sharpens another." It basically means for all men to lift up one another through prayer and your daily walk with God. JRay, that's what we're doing right now. From one BOFFO guy to another, keep fightin'. Know that we love you and are lifting you up always.
Basketball just doesn't matter. Life matters. People matter. And Jason Ray, you matter.
Saturday, March 10, 2007
Bracket Projection
As of 11:10pm on Saturday night...
Last five in: Texas Tech, Stanford, Purdue, Illinois, Florida St.
Last five out: Kansas St, Drexel, Old Dominion, West Virginia, Air Force
I am least convinced of Illinois & Florida St, as seen by their slots as 64 & 65. Illinois has not impressed me all year, and I've seen them numerous times. FSU has convinced me, but I doubt they will convince the committee. Clearly, my ACC alliance plays a role, but I think FSU is a quality team. I have seen a number of other bubble teams in person this year and think FSU is better than all of them.
I heard Lunardi on ESPN saying that Stanford was out. I disagree completely. They lost to a good USC team in the quarterfinals on Thursday in the Pac-10 tournament, which apparently dropped them from a 9-seed last week to out of the tournament this week. No way. In my opinion, if Stanford misses this year's field, they will have as good or better an argument than Cincinnati had last year.
As far as number one seeds go, I'm all in for Ohio St, UCLA, and Florida. I'm waiting on Carolina or Kansas. The Heels have the better resume as far as RPI, etc, but Kansas has been so hot recently that the human element tells me they deserve a number one seed. I am obviously on UCLA's side, despite their consecutive losses to close the season. How does a team go from number one overall seed to a number two seed with one upset loss? Maybe the margin of error this year is just that tight, but I'm not buying that either. Who would have thought I'd ever come off as a Pac-10 apologist.
Finally, pay close attention to NC State and Arkansas on Sunday. If either wins, that takes a bid away from one of the above bubble candidates. If both were to win, it would practically be a bubble team killing spree this week, with up to five bids stolen. Both teams have a solid chance, but I'm not betting against Florida...and I'm stopping short of jinxing the Tar Heels. You think I'm crazy?
Alright, hopefully one more posting tomorrow pre-brackets. I'll be out of town Mon-Wed, so if I make a pre-tournament posting, it will probably be on Thursday morning. Either way, set your clocks forward an hour (thanks Brilla), and enjoy a happy ultimate holiday: 311 Day & Bracket Day.
"You're a transistor, lightning resistor, connected to the mother star, yeah that's what you are..."
Last five in: Texas Tech, Stanford, Purdue, Illinois, Florida St.
Last five out: Kansas St, Drexel, Old Dominion, West Virginia, Air Force
I am least convinced of Illinois & Florida St, as seen by their slots as 64 & 65. Illinois has not impressed me all year, and I've seen them numerous times. FSU has convinced me, but I doubt they will convince the committee. Clearly, my ACC alliance plays a role, but I think FSU is a quality team. I have seen a number of other bubble teams in person this year and think FSU is better than all of them.
I heard Lunardi on ESPN saying that Stanford was out. I disagree completely. They lost to a good USC team in the quarterfinals on Thursday in the Pac-10 tournament, which apparently dropped them from a 9-seed last week to out of the tournament this week. No way. In my opinion, if Stanford misses this year's field, they will have as good or better an argument than Cincinnati had last year.
As far as number one seeds go, I'm all in for Ohio St, UCLA, and Florida. I'm waiting on Carolina or Kansas. The Heels have the better resume as far as RPI, etc, but Kansas has been so hot recently that the human element tells me they deserve a number one seed. I am obviously on UCLA's side, despite their consecutive losses to close the season. How does a team go from number one overall seed to a number two seed with one upset loss? Maybe the margin of error this year is just that tight, but I'm not buying that either. Who would have thought I'd ever come off as a Pac-10 apologist.
Finally, pay close attention to NC State and Arkansas on Sunday. If either wins, that takes a bid away from one of the above bubble candidates. If both were to win, it would practically be a bubble team killing spree this week, with up to five bids stolen. Both teams have a solid chance, but I'm not betting against Florida...and I'm stopping short of jinxing the Tar Heels. You think I'm crazy?
Alright, hopefully one more posting tomorrow pre-brackets. I'll be out of town Mon-Wed, so if I make a pre-tournament posting, it will probably be on Thursday morning. Either way, set your clocks forward an hour (thanks Brilla), and enjoy a happy ultimate holiday: 311 Day & Bracket Day.
"You're a transistor, lightning resistor, connected to the mother star, yeah that's what you are..."
Thursday, March 01, 2007
NCAA Madness
Let’s cover a few college basketball related items before we get into discussing the NCAA Tournament (editor’s note: most of this blog was typed Sunday night, then somehow put off until Thursday morning for posting. What can I say, I suck at life).
First, the National Player of the Year debate will heat up soon. I’m here to say that Kevin Durant should win it, period. Without Durant, Texas is fighting to be included in the Big Dance. With him, they’re a 3-5 seed, competing with Kansas to win the Big 12 regular season title, while starting four freshmen and a sophomore. Alando Tucker of Wisconsin is a lovely player, a senior who’s stuck around (more because he’s a 6-5 small forward than he loves college that much) and is leading the Badgers to a memorable season. But, he’s not the best player in the country. Neither are Tyler Hansbrough, Aaron Brooks, anyone on Florida, nor Greg Oden (please, he shouldn’t be in the discussion). The only player I could see an argument for is Acie Law IV of Texas A&M. He’s the definition of clutch, leading the Aggies to their best season ever. Need proof? Find a tape of last night’s epic battle with the above-mentioned Longhorns of Texas, where Law IV made two tying three-pointers to extend the game. Better yet, according to Tom Brennan of ESPN, Law IV is outscoring the opposition in the last four minutes of games by himself. Read that again. Sunk in yet? For a term that is thrown around far too often, that is truly a clutch player right there. But, I’m still giving the nod to Durant. You’ve probably heard enough about him by now, so I’ll save all the statistics to back it up. If you want to argue though, just look at his numbers and call me later.
Second, the ACC Player of the Year picture is a little cloudier. Jared Dudley looked like a runaway winner until last week. I’m not certain that Dudley can win the award now, with the recent slide for BC combined with the general bias of the voters on Tobacco Road. However, only Tyler Hansbrough and Josh McRoberts are candidates in that area, and McRoberts is a big stretch. Al Thornton is probably the best player in the league, but he’s buried on a nearly-dead Florida St team. That leaves us with the UVA guards, Singletary and Reynolds, and Virginia Tech guard Zabian Dowdell. Personally, I feel the UVA guards will cancel out votes. Neither is more important or consistently better than the other. That leaves us with Dowdell. Obviously, I am quite biased since I work at Virginia Tech and watch him every night. That being said, I would vote for Dowdell. He is completely vital to Virginia Tech’s success. If the Hokies end up tying for or winning outright the ACC Regular Season championship, then he has to at least be considered. At this point, I say it’s a three player race between Dowdell, Dudley, and Hansbrough.
Third, the Tar Heels. I should caution you, the reader, that I’m typing this incredibly rare blog entry within two hours of the loss at Maryland. So yes, I’m ramming my head into a wall right now. But, far prior to this evening, I’ve come to a conclusion on this team. Think back to 1986, 1995, or 1997 for a reference point, because those are the comparable teams to this one. The ’86 team was very, very good and more experienced than this team, but just didn’t have the killer instinct. The 1995 team was extremely talented, but lacked a vocal leader and defensive stopper. The 1997 team was shaky for half the season, but got hot and road a winning streak into a tie for the ACC Regular Season title, won the ACC Tournament, and flamed out in the Final Four with poor shooting and the inability to maintain a lead. What’s the comparison? All of these teams lacked the ability to successfully go for the kill.
I came to my conclusion during the loss earlier this season at NC State, a less-talented opponent rolling on emotion. Carolina failed to get a big stop, took bad shots, and let State hang in the game. The same thing happened against Virginia Tech at home and again Sunday night against Maryland (minus the bad shots). To me, that reveals two related problems. First, there are times this team does not understand how desperate an opponent is playing. My biggest concern entering the season was that come March, this team would not understand the intensity it takes and the desperation it takes to win. Lose, your season is over. This comes largely from leaders on the team communicating this fact to freshmen who have never experienced it. Obviously this problem still exists (leadership has been shaky, no matter what people have said).
Second, the Tar Heels have an inability to shoot someone execution style. Viewers of any television drama involving Jack Bauer know how many times he has been on the brink of death, but escaped. How many would-be killers are going to put him on his knees, hold a gun to his head, and launch into a five minute monologue about the past, what they did, why they did it, only to see Jack escape and kill them? That is exactly what this team has done this season in its three most-recent losses. The bad guy was down, you are ready to kill him, and you somehow blow it. Carolina doesn’t go for the kill nearly enough and succeed. Yes, it was done at Boston College. Yes, the foot never came off the gas at Clemson. And yes, this team won at Duke in a tough environment. But it has not been consistent and I do not think it will suddenly become a collective assassin in the NCAA Tournament. Can they? Certainly. Will they? Don’t get your hopes up. I’m certainly not.
Ok, on to the real discussion of the upcoming Selection Sunday festivities. For the first time in a while (I’m too lazy to see how long “a while” is), Selection Sunday is the same day as 311 Day. I will celebrate by listening to 311 all day long while watching basketball and editing my bracket. While I’d love to have to pause my CD player during the ACC Tournament final (pending a Carolina appearance), I doubt that will be an issue (see above paragraphs). I will be ending celebrations a bit early that evening because I fly out the following Monday to beautiful Pittsburgh (sarcasm, sarcasm) for a three day sales training academy. Surely I will not be looking at brackets on this trip, right?
Entering the season of brackets, three main topics come up: who are the real contenders for the Final Four/National Title, who are the sleeper teams, and who is on the bubble. In reverse order:
Bubble: Currently, I have 47 tournament bids in “lock” status. This includes the 31 automatic bids that go to league champions, plus 16 at-large bids. Here are those teams:
Automatic Bids (current conference leaders) –
America East
Vermont
A-10
Xavier
ACC
Carolina
Atlantic Sun
ETSU
Big East
Pittsburgh
Big 12
Kansas
Big Sky
Weber St
Big South
Winthrop
Big Ten
Ohio State
Big West
Long Beach St
CAA
Virginia Commonwealth
C-USA
Memphis
Horizon
Wright St
Ivy
Penn
MAAC
Marist
Mid-Con
Oral Roberts
Mid-American
Toledo
MEAC
Delaware St
Missouri Valley
Southern Illinois
Mountain West
BYU
NEC
Cen Conn State
Ohio Valley
Austin Peay
Pac-10
UCLA
Patriot
Holy Cross
SEC
Florida
Southern
Davidson
Southland
A&M C-C
SWAC
Jackson St
Sun Belt
South Alabama
West Coast
Santa Clara
WAC
Nevada
The sixteen at-large spots that are, in my opinion, locks:
Duke
Carolina
UVA
Boston College
Georgetown
Marquette
Wisconsin
Texas A&M
Texas
Washington St
Oregon
Southern Cal
Kentucky
Butler
Air Force
UNLV
That leaves 18 at-large spots to be decided. Of these 18 spots, nine teams started out the week on my bubble, but are currently solidly “in” the tournament. These 9 teams would have to do something drastically bad to not make the Big Dance. They are:
Maryland
Louisville
Notre Dame
Michigan St
Creighton
Stanford
Arizona
Vanderbilt
Tennessee
Obviously, Maryland should move up a category following the wins over Carolina & Duke. Louisville & Vanderbilt move up as well. That leaves us with another nine spots to be decided right now. As of Monday morning, February 26th, the final nine spots go to (in no particular order)…
Georgia Tech
Villanova
Syracuse
Illinois
Texas Tech
Old Dominion
App State
Gonzaga
Alabama
…with the last teams out being:
Kansas State
Purdue
Clemson
Missouri St
Providence
Oklahoma St
Georgia
San Diego St
Keep in mind, these bids are based a full allotment being available. What I mean is there are always a few at-large spots that are essentially stolen when a team that would get in no matter what loses in its conference tournament. For example, if Butler were to lose in the Horizon conference tournament, they would require one of the at-large bids for tournament entry. Obviously, Butler is clearly a tournament team, so their inclusion would bump someone off the bubble into the NIT. This season, by my count, there are an astonishing eight such instances to keep an eye on:
Atlantic 10 – Xavier (only viable at-large candidate, bubble team at best right now)
Big South – Winthrop (bubble team right now, should make it no matter what)
CAA – Virginia Commonwealth (Old Dominion and Drexel are both knocking on the door)
Conference USA – Memphis (definitely only at-large candidate)
Horizon – Butler (currently lead by Wright St)
Southern – Davidson (App State could potentially get an at-large as well)
West Coast – Gonzaga (currently lead by Santa Clara; Gonzaga is barely in right now anyway)
WAC – Nevada (Utah St and New Mexico St are sneaking into the discussion)
Of these teams, Butler, Nevada, Memphis, Winthrop, and Gonzaga would currently be in the field even if they lost in their conference tournaments. I don’t think Gonzaga can afford a loss personally, but the other four teams should dance in my opinion. Right now, Old Dominion would also sneak in from the CAA; strangely, I’m not sure league-leading VCU would get an at-large. Of course, any major conference could have a bid stolen if a team who would not have gotten an at-large berth makes a magical run. I have a strange feeling that this may happen this year, as a number of talented teams have underachieved in multi-bid leagues. The following teams have enough talent to get hot and win their conference tournaments, but would not make the tournament otherwise: Florida St, UCONN, Providence (could still get an at-large bid), Iowa, Bradley, Wichita St, Washington & LSU. LSU scares me the most, as the Tigers have played well in a loss at Kentucky and a win versus Florida.
Now, I don’t get too much into numbers and RPI rankings and strength of schedule and all that mess. These brackets are just my opinion, mostly based on watching a lot of basketball, reading a lot about basketball, and common sense. Things will change, and I will try to post regularly my actual tracking chart of teams and conferences.
Sleepers:
Recall that I divide sleepers into two groups: first round/upset sleepers (Bucknell ‘05, Santa Clara ‘93, Weber-friggin-State ‘99, etc) and Final Four sleepers (Syracuse ’96, Arizona ’97, UNC ’00, etc). An “Upset Sleeper” must be a 12-seed or lower to qualify and a Final Four sleeper must be a 5-seed or lower.
Upset Sleepers: Long Beach State, Holy Cross, South Alabama, Xavier (if applicable)
Final Four Sleepers: Maryland, Vanderbilt, Southern Cal, UNLV
I love Long Beach State if they make the dance. Their top seven players are all seniors, they shoot a ton of threes (and shoot them quickly), and mix up their defense enough to overshadow the fact that they really are not that good defensively. This is important, because those switching defenses will be unfamiliar to their potential first-round opponent and it will take multiple possessions to adjust. However, note that they are the type of team who could come out and have a bad shooting night and get blown out as a result. And all of this, again, is only if they make the NCAA Tournament.
Of course, I also have a category called the Five to Thrive. These are five teams I think will succeed in March, regardless of seed. Doesn’t mean they’re Final Four picks, I just have a feeling they will play well in the tournament and are not getting a ton of publicity as such. Two years ago, this list included Michigan St (Final Four team). Last year’s list included LSU (also a Final Four team). And yes, that made me one out of five last year (the others were UNC, KU, Washington, and Ohio St. Ouch).
As a note, my original list, written on the back of a DORNA signage tracking sheet at a Virginia Tech women’s basketball game a month ago, included Georgetown before they started playing really well and getting hyped up. Kansas was on the same list. Both teams are now on fire and are getting hyped up by the media. Just so you know…
Vanderbilt – Spread the floor, everyone can shoot, Derrick Byers is the go-to guy. Kevin Stallings is one of the more underrated coaches in the country in my opinion, and he will have his team ready. A good matchup could see them in the Sweet 16.
Georgetown – They’re staying on my list, even though they’ll get a higher seed than I generally allow for in the Five to Thrive. Again, style of play will be key; if the Hoyas get a bad matchup, things could end early. As it is, I think they’ll be playing in at least the Sweet 16, possibly the Elite Eight, and certainly have the ability to make it to Atlanta (the site of this year’s Final Four).
Texas – no one wants to play the Horns. They are really young and playing hot basketball right now…just like Kansas was last year before they lost in the first round to Bradley and ruined brackets across the country. But, Texas is different because they have Kevin Durant. He is the entire reason alone that Texas is on this list.
UNLV – Mainly because one of the three/four Mountain West Conference teams is going to make a run of some sort, I just don’t know who. BYU is not as talented as UNLV, Air Force is playing poorly right now, and San Diego St is on the outside looking in today. UNLV is athletic, has played a tough schedule, and has a good coach in Lon Kruger.
Virginia Tech – Because I love my job. And because they have an experienced backcourt, a go-to guy in Zabian Dowdell, and can play multiple styles in the tournament. A slowdown game does not favor Tech, but the Hokies have won games in the fifties this season as well. And yes, I was going to say Maryland, but everyone on ESPN is blowing the Terps right now and I refuse to join the party.
Bonus – Xavier. Just a weird feeling. Which is probably my supper from last night, meaning Xavier will miss the tournament all together.
Final Four Contenders???:
I love Kansas. I like UCLA. I am hott for Texas A&M, but Joseph Jones keeps fouling out of games. I love Carolina as a fan, but…truth is, I don’t really know who is a Final Four Contender. Every team has a weakness in my eyes. It might be easier to say who I don’t like:
Ohio State – Greg Oden plays defense, but he is the lone Buckeye who does so on a regular basis. They did do an admirable job against Wisconsin last Sunday, but I am skeptical of their ability to do it for four straight games in the NCAA Tournament.
Wisconsin – Can’t shoot, lost Brian Butch, Kameron Taylor is too streaky. There defense will keep them in games, but they look more like a second-round upset waiting to happen than a viable national title contender.
Memphis – I don’t think anyone has an accurate gauge on Memphis because they haven’t played a really good team in three months. One of these years under Calipari, they’ll make the Final Four. I just don’t think this is the one.
Florida – teams that try to “turn it on” in March frequently lose. I’ll make a decision on the Gators based on how they play in the SEC Tournament next week. When focused, they are obviously very, very good. When distracted, they lose to LSU and Tennessee. Ugh.
Pittsburgh – just have my doubts. In fact, I don’t know of many people who really like this team’s chances. Not that they will be upset in the first round, but they look like a ho-hum Sweet 16 team.
Nevada – they are ranked in the top ten of the polls right now. However, how many voters have seen the Wolfpack play more than three times? And how many of those voters would think I meant the NC State Wolfpack in the previous sentence? That being said, Nevada just doesn’t do it for me. After all, I’ve seen them play at least twice.
There are some other teams that could make some noise: Washington St, USC, Duke, and Southern Illinois. All four have holes, but wouldn’t be a total shock. Quick problem with Duke: the Blue Devils are already playing with “March desperation”, but have still lost some games. When they win, they out-hustle other teams and just want to win more. When they lose, they still do those things, but don’t have enough talent.
Ok, that is finally enough I reckon. If I were picking a Final Four right now, it would include Kansas, UCLA, North Carolina, and Texas A&M, but obviously all of those highly-ranked teams will not make it to Atlanta. Either way, I’m in full March Madness Mode at this point. Enjoy the beginning of Championship Week, the Duke/Carolina game, the ACC Women’s Tournament, and a cold beverage.
“Baby…would you eat that there snap cracker in your special outfit for me please?”
First, the National Player of the Year debate will heat up soon. I’m here to say that Kevin Durant should win it, period. Without Durant, Texas is fighting to be included in the Big Dance. With him, they’re a 3-5 seed, competing with Kansas to win the Big 12 regular season title, while starting four freshmen and a sophomore. Alando Tucker of Wisconsin is a lovely player, a senior who’s stuck around (more because he’s a 6-5 small forward than he loves college that much) and is leading the Badgers to a memorable season. But, he’s not the best player in the country. Neither are Tyler Hansbrough, Aaron Brooks, anyone on Florida, nor Greg Oden (please, he shouldn’t be in the discussion). The only player I could see an argument for is Acie Law IV of Texas A&M. He’s the definition of clutch, leading the Aggies to their best season ever. Need proof? Find a tape of last night’s epic battle with the above-mentioned Longhorns of Texas, where Law IV made two tying three-pointers to extend the game. Better yet, according to Tom Brennan of ESPN, Law IV is outscoring the opposition in the last four minutes of games by himself. Read that again. Sunk in yet? For a term that is thrown around far too often, that is truly a clutch player right there. But, I’m still giving the nod to Durant. You’ve probably heard enough about him by now, so I’ll save all the statistics to back it up. If you want to argue though, just look at his numbers and call me later.
Second, the ACC Player of the Year picture is a little cloudier. Jared Dudley looked like a runaway winner until last week. I’m not certain that Dudley can win the award now, with the recent slide for BC combined with the general bias of the voters on Tobacco Road. However, only Tyler Hansbrough and Josh McRoberts are candidates in that area, and McRoberts is a big stretch. Al Thornton is probably the best player in the league, but he’s buried on a nearly-dead Florida St team. That leaves us with the UVA guards, Singletary and Reynolds, and Virginia Tech guard Zabian Dowdell. Personally, I feel the UVA guards will cancel out votes. Neither is more important or consistently better than the other. That leaves us with Dowdell. Obviously, I am quite biased since I work at Virginia Tech and watch him every night. That being said, I would vote for Dowdell. He is completely vital to Virginia Tech’s success. If the Hokies end up tying for or winning outright the ACC Regular Season championship, then he has to at least be considered. At this point, I say it’s a three player race between Dowdell, Dudley, and Hansbrough.
Third, the Tar Heels. I should caution you, the reader, that I’m typing this incredibly rare blog entry within two hours of the loss at Maryland. So yes, I’m ramming my head into a wall right now. But, far prior to this evening, I’ve come to a conclusion on this team. Think back to 1986, 1995, or 1997 for a reference point, because those are the comparable teams to this one. The ’86 team was very, very good and more experienced than this team, but just didn’t have the killer instinct. The 1995 team was extremely talented, but lacked a vocal leader and defensive stopper. The 1997 team was shaky for half the season, but got hot and road a winning streak into a tie for the ACC Regular Season title, won the ACC Tournament, and flamed out in the Final Four with poor shooting and the inability to maintain a lead. What’s the comparison? All of these teams lacked the ability to successfully go for the kill.
I came to my conclusion during the loss earlier this season at NC State, a less-talented opponent rolling on emotion. Carolina failed to get a big stop, took bad shots, and let State hang in the game. The same thing happened against Virginia Tech at home and again Sunday night against Maryland (minus the bad shots). To me, that reveals two related problems. First, there are times this team does not understand how desperate an opponent is playing. My biggest concern entering the season was that come March, this team would not understand the intensity it takes and the desperation it takes to win. Lose, your season is over. This comes largely from leaders on the team communicating this fact to freshmen who have never experienced it. Obviously this problem still exists (leadership has been shaky, no matter what people have said).
Second, the Tar Heels have an inability to shoot someone execution style. Viewers of any television drama involving Jack Bauer know how many times he has been on the brink of death, but escaped. How many would-be killers are going to put him on his knees, hold a gun to his head, and launch into a five minute monologue about the past, what they did, why they did it, only to see Jack escape and kill them? That is exactly what this team has done this season in its three most-recent losses. The bad guy was down, you are ready to kill him, and you somehow blow it. Carolina doesn’t go for the kill nearly enough and succeed. Yes, it was done at Boston College. Yes, the foot never came off the gas at Clemson. And yes, this team won at Duke in a tough environment. But it has not been consistent and I do not think it will suddenly become a collective assassin in the NCAA Tournament. Can they? Certainly. Will they? Don’t get your hopes up. I’m certainly not.
Ok, on to the real discussion of the upcoming Selection Sunday festivities. For the first time in a while (I’m too lazy to see how long “a while” is), Selection Sunday is the same day as 311 Day. I will celebrate by listening to 311 all day long while watching basketball and editing my bracket. While I’d love to have to pause my CD player during the ACC Tournament final (pending a Carolina appearance), I doubt that will be an issue (see above paragraphs). I will be ending celebrations a bit early that evening because I fly out the following Monday to beautiful Pittsburgh (sarcasm, sarcasm) for a three day sales training academy. Surely I will not be looking at brackets on this trip, right?
Entering the season of brackets, three main topics come up: who are the real contenders for the Final Four/National Title, who are the sleeper teams, and who is on the bubble. In reverse order:
Bubble: Currently, I have 47 tournament bids in “lock” status. This includes the 31 automatic bids that go to league champions, plus 16 at-large bids. Here are those teams:
Automatic Bids (current conference leaders) –
America East
Vermont
A-10
Xavier
ACC
Carolina
Atlantic Sun
ETSU
Big East
Pittsburgh
Big 12
Kansas
Big Sky
Weber St
Big South
Winthrop
Big Ten
Ohio State
Big West
Long Beach St
CAA
Virginia Commonwealth
C-USA
Memphis
Horizon
Wright St
Ivy
Penn
MAAC
Marist
Mid-Con
Oral Roberts
Mid-American
Toledo
MEAC
Delaware St
Missouri Valley
Southern Illinois
Mountain West
BYU
NEC
Cen Conn State
Ohio Valley
Austin Peay
Pac-10
UCLA
Patriot
Holy Cross
SEC
Florida
Southern
Davidson
Southland
A&M C-C
SWAC
Jackson St
Sun Belt
South Alabama
West Coast
Santa Clara
WAC
Nevada
The sixteen at-large spots that are, in my opinion, locks:
Duke
Carolina
UVA
Boston College
Georgetown
Marquette
Wisconsin
Texas A&M
Texas
Washington St
Oregon
Southern Cal
Kentucky
Butler
Air Force
UNLV
That leaves 18 at-large spots to be decided. Of these 18 spots, nine teams started out the week on my bubble, but are currently solidly “in” the tournament. These 9 teams would have to do something drastically bad to not make the Big Dance. They are:
Maryland
Louisville
Notre Dame
Michigan St
Creighton
Stanford
Arizona
Vanderbilt
Tennessee
Obviously, Maryland should move up a category following the wins over Carolina & Duke. Louisville & Vanderbilt move up as well. That leaves us with another nine spots to be decided right now. As of Monday morning, February 26th, the final nine spots go to (in no particular order)…
Georgia Tech
Villanova
Syracuse
Illinois
Texas Tech
Old Dominion
App State
Gonzaga
Alabama
…with the last teams out being:
Kansas State
Purdue
Clemson
Missouri St
Providence
Oklahoma St
Georgia
San Diego St
Keep in mind, these bids are based a full allotment being available. What I mean is there are always a few at-large spots that are essentially stolen when a team that would get in no matter what loses in its conference tournament. For example, if Butler were to lose in the Horizon conference tournament, they would require one of the at-large bids for tournament entry. Obviously, Butler is clearly a tournament team, so their inclusion would bump someone off the bubble into the NIT. This season, by my count, there are an astonishing eight such instances to keep an eye on:
Atlantic 10 – Xavier (only viable at-large candidate, bubble team at best right now)
Big South – Winthrop (bubble team right now, should make it no matter what)
CAA – Virginia Commonwealth (Old Dominion and Drexel are both knocking on the door)
Conference USA – Memphis (definitely only at-large candidate)
Horizon – Butler (currently lead by Wright St)
Southern – Davidson (App State could potentially get an at-large as well)
West Coast – Gonzaga (currently lead by Santa Clara; Gonzaga is barely in right now anyway)
WAC – Nevada (Utah St and New Mexico St are sneaking into the discussion)
Of these teams, Butler, Nevada, Memphis, Winthrop, and Gonzaga would currently be in the field even if they lost in their conference tournaments. I don’t think Gonzaga can afford a loss personally, but the other four teams should dance in my opinion. Right now, Old Dominion would also sneak in from the CAA; strangely, I’m not sure league-leading VCU would get an at-large. Of course, any major conference could have a bid stolen if a team who would not have gotten an at-large berth makes a magical run. I have a strange feeling that this may happen this year, as a number of talented teams have underachieved in multi-bid leagues. The following teams have enough talent to get hot and win their conference tournaments, but would not make the tournament otherwise: Florida St, UCONN, Providence (could still get an at-large bid), Iowa, Bradley, Wichita St, Washington & LSU. LSU scares me the most, as the Tigers have played well in a loss at Kentucky and a win versus Florida.
Now, I don’t get too much into numbers and RPI rankings and strength of schedule and all that mess. These brackets are just my opinion, mostly based on watching a lot of basketball, reading a lot about basketball, and common sense. Things will change, and I will try to post regularly my actual tracking chart of teams and conferences.
Sleepers:
Recall that I divide sleepers into two groups: first round/upset sleepers (Bucknell ‘05, Santa Clara ‘93, Weber-friggin-State ‘99, etc) and Final Four sleepers (Syracuse ’96, Arizona ’97, UNC ’00, etc). An “Upset Sleeper” must be a 12-seed or lower to qualify and a Final Four sleeper must be a 5-seed or lower.
Upset Sleepers: Long Beach State, Holy Cross, South Alabama, Xavier (if applicable)
Final Four Sleepers: Maryland, Vanderbilt, Southern Cal, UNLV
I love Long Beach State if they make the dance. Their top seven players are all seniors, they shoot a ton of threes (and shoot them quickly), and mix up their defense enough to overshadow the fact that they really are not that good defensively. This is important, because those switching defenses will be unfamiliar to their potential first-round opponent and it will take multiple possessions to adjust. However, note that they are the type of team who could come out and have a bad shooting night and get blown out as a result. And all of this, again, is only if they make the NCAA Tournament.
Of course, I also have a category called the Five to Thrive. These are five teams I think will succeed in March, regardless of seed. Doesn’t mean they’re Final Four picks, I just have a feeling they will play well in the tournament and are not getting a ton of publicity as such. Two years ago, this list included Michigan St (Final Four team). Last year’s list included LSU (also a Final Four team). And yes, that made me one out of five last year (the others were UNC, KU, Washington, and Ohio St. Ouch).
As a note, my original list, written on the back of a DORNA signage tracking sheet at a Virginia Tech women’s basketball game a month ago, included Georgetown before they started playing really well and getting hyped up. Kansas was on the same list. Both teams are now on fire and are getting hyped up by the media. Just so you know…
Vanderbilt – Spread the floor, everyone can shoot, Derrick Byers is the go-to guy. Kevin Stallings is one of the more underrated coaches in the country in my opinion, and he will have his team ready. A good matchup could see them in the Sweet 16.
Georgetown – They’re staying on my list, even though they’ll get a higher seed than I generally allow for in the Five to Thrive. Again, style of play will be key; if the Hoyas get a bad matchup, things could end early. As it is, I think they’ll be playing in at least the Sweet 16, possibly the Elite Eight, and certainly have the ability to make it to Atlanta (the site of this year’s Final Four).
Texas – no one wants to play the Horns. They are really young and playing hot basketball right now…just like Kansas was last year before they lost in the first round to Bradley and ruined brackets across the country. But, Texas is different because they have Kevin Durant. He is the entire reason alone that Texas is on this list.
UNLV – Mainly because one of the three/four Mountain West Conference teams is going to make a run of some sort, I just don’t know who. BYU is not as talented as UNLV, Air Force is playing poorly right now, and San Diego St is on the outside looking in today. UNLV is athletic, has played a tough schedule, and has a good coach in Lon Kruger.
Virginia Tech – Because I love my job. And because they have an experienced backcourt, a go-to guy in Zabian Dowdell, and can play multiple styles in the tournament. A slowdown game does not favor Tech, but the Hokies have won games in the fifties this season as well. And yes, I was going to say Maryland, but everyone on ESPN is blowing the Terps right now and I refuse to join the party.
Bonus – Xavier. Just a weird feeling. Which is probably my supper from last night, meaning Xavier will miss the tournament all together.
Final Four Contenders???:
I love Kansas. I like UCLA. I am hott for Texas A&M, but Joseph Jones keeps fouling out of games. I love Carolina as a fan, but…truth is, I don’t really know who is a Final Four Contender. Every team has a weakness in my eyes. It might be easier to say who I don’t like:
Ohio State – Greg Oden plays defense, but he is the lone Buckeye who does so on a regular basis. They did do an admirable job against Wisconsin last Sunday, but I am skeptical of their ability to do it for four straight games in the NCAA Tournament.
Wisconsin – Can’t shoot, lost Brian Butch, Kameron Taylor is too streaky. There defense will keep them in games, but they look more like a second-round upset waiting to happen than a viable national title contender.
Memphis – I don’t think anyone has an accurate gauge on Memphis because they haven’t played a really good team in three months. One of these years under Calipari, they’ll make the Final Four. I just don’t think this is the one.
Florida – teams that try to “turn it on” in March frequently lose. I’ll make a decision on the Gators based on how they play in the SEC Tournament next week. When focused, they are obviously very, very good. When distracted, they lose to LSU and Tennessee. Ugh.
Pittsburgh – just have my doubts. In fact, I don’t know of many people who really like this team’s chances. Not that they will be upset in the first round, but they look like a ho-hum Sweet 16 team.
Nevada – they are ranked in the top ten of the polls right now. However, how many voters have seen the Wolfpack play more than three times? And how many of those voters would think I meant the NC State Wolfpack in the previous sentence? That being said, Nevada just doesn’t do it for me. After all, I’ve seen them play at least twice.
There are some other teams that could make some noise: Washington St, USC, Duke, and Southern Illinois. All four have holes, but wouldn’t be a total shock. Quick problem with Duke: the Blue Devils are already playing with “March desperation”, but have still lost some games. When they win, they out-hustle other teams and just want to win more. When they lose, they still do those things, but don’t have enough talent.
Ok, that is finally enough I reckon. If I were picking a Final Four right now, it would include Kansas, UCLA, North Carolina, and Texas A&M, but obviously all of those highly-ranked teams will not make it to Atlanta. Either way, I’m in full March Madness Mode at this point. Enjoy the beginning of Championship Week, the Duke/Carolina game, the ACC Women’s Tournament, and a cold beverage.
“Baby…would you eat that there snap cracker in your special outfit for me please?”
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