5 Teams to Watch

I think a well-organized, themed posting would be nice considering the randomness of recent writing. Therefore, to quench that thirst for all things bracket, I give you a list of 5 teams to watch coming down the stretch as they attempt to sneak into the Big Dance. This list focuses on which teams, given their schedules and conference tournaments, may have a chance of sneaking into the bracket at the last minute. Last year, for example, both West Virginia and NC State were on the outside looking in at this point in the season. The 'Neers ended up in the Elite 8 and State lost in the Sweet 16. Both scored 10-seeds in the bracket and upset 2-seeds Wake Forest and UCONN.

Criteria include the chance to notch an eye-catching victory (upset of a highly ranked team), win on the road, improve the RPI, or make some noise in the conference tournament. Without further adieu:

1. South Carolina - The Gamecocks made my initial projection way back in November over Vanderbilt and Arkansas (I think); four months later, this could very well come to fruition. SC must beat Kentucky in Columbia this weekend to keep their at-large case strong. Th G-cocks have games at Georgia and Auburn, both very winnable games. Two home games after Kentucky remain as Vandy and LSU come to town. The NIT Champs from last season are currently in line to defend their crown; however, they have a great shot of improving their status and sneaking into the biggest dance of them all.
   Prediction: Cocks go at least 3-2, win two games in SEC tourney, sneak IN to the NCAA Tournament
2. *Insert ACC Team Here* - Who is it going to be this year? Last year, Maryland fell off the bubble while NC State jumped into the tournament with a strong victory over Wake Forest in the ACC tournament. Virginia Tech and Miami also entered the league tourney last year with a chance to do the same, but both lost their first games. This year, we have Virginia, Florida St, Miami, and Maryland each with a chance to punch a dance ticket late. Florida St controls its own destiny, with games against the other three ACC bubble squads, plus a trip to Va Tech and a home date with Duke. Likewise for Maryland, who sees the other three along with Ga Tech and a trip to Chapel Hill. If either of these teams could pull the upset it needs (Duke or Carolina), that would go a long way.
   Prediction: This will not be decided until the second weekend in March in Greensboro, NC, the site of the ACC Tournament. I think all of the bubble teams will beat up on one another and force one of them to get hot during the league tourney to secure a bid. Florida St has the best shot of any of these teams in my opinion.
3. Louisville - Ah yes, those over-hyped Cardinals. All that pre-season pub and nothing to show for it. But, do not underestimate the ability of this team or its coach. The schedule is tough: @ Syracuse, vs DePaul, @ West Va, vs Marquette, @ UCONN. Yikes. The Cards need to just do enough to make sure they get to play in the 12-team Big East tournament at this point. Even going 4-1 in those games would only get them to .500 in league play. Remember as well that L'ville played a very weak non-conference schedule.
   Prediction: Just short, barring a run in the league tourney. They have to beat Syracuse first of all, which would push the OrangeHomoSapians to the bubble as well. Colleg Gameday will be at the Carrier Dome for what was supposed to be a great matchup this Saturday night. Cards finish a disappointing season in the NIT instead of on the big stage.
4. Nebraska - The Cornhuskers apparently do indeed have a basketball team. Currently 6-5 in the weaker-than-ever Big 12, the Big Red take advantage of the schedule that lies before them. Texas Tech, Colorado, Kansas St at home; Texas A&M and Mizzou on the road. Win out, which would put them at 11-5 in the league, and things are looking good.
   Prediction: Big Red will not make it. The RPI is bad, the Strength of Schedule is horrible, and playing hot down the stretch will not cover for that. The problem is there are so many other bubble teams ahead of Nebraska right now and leapfrogging them all down the stretch with a weak schedule is not going to happen.
5. Arkansas - The Hogs have a solid out-of-conference resume, with wins in Maui over Kansas, at home over Mizzou, and at Texas Tech. However, road wins in the SEC have been singular (at Auburn). On the bright side, Arkansas has two chances for a marquee win: Florida in Fayetteville (that would be at home) and at Tennessee.
   Prediction: Must go at least 3-2 in last five to get to .500 in SEC play; then, win at least one game in the SEC tourney in Atlanta. I think they can do it, but must fight it out with SC and Kentucky for a spot. However, I think they come up short and end up in the NIT yet again.

Other teams to watch include UNC-Wilmington (probably need to win CAA Tournament), Stanford (I doubt it), Air Force (terrible RPI), Butler (long-shot?), Bradley (solid RPI out of the MoVal, but 6 bids for that league would be shocking), Charlotte (RPI behind likes of South Alabama, Winthrop...probly lost any hope by falling at Wake Forest last weekend), Xavier (fading in A-10 play), and Temple (must beat Duke and go deep in A-10 tournament).

In summary, I think South Carolina and a fifth ACC team get in, with Louisville, Arkansas and Bradley having the best shot otherwise.

Check out www.bracketography.com for complete BracketBuster coverage this weekend. Holla at a playa when you see me on da skreet...