NCAA Thoughts & Five to Thrive

Whew, it's been a while. With that being said, I should have a lot of thoughts on NCAA hoops. Truthfully, I'm a little burnt out on college basketball right now. More on that some other time, maybe it's just a funk of some sort. I will trudge on today through some thoughts, predictions, and analysis nonetheless.

Conference tournaments actually start this week for a number of the one-bid leagues, like the Southern Conference, Big South, & Ohio Valley. The multi-bid Missouri Valley also cranks up in what should be a fun weekend. Tons of pressure on everyone participating in these leagues since so many of them earn only one bid.

A few quick thoughts on the brackets that will be released in two weeks:

• The 34 at-large spots are not set in stone. Yes, 34 bids will be given to teams that do not win conference tourneys. However, there are always teams who win league tournaments for multi-bid conferences that otherwise would not have been an at-large and essentially "steal" an at-large bid. For example: when counting the 31 automatic qualifiers, we would assume Gonzaga would win the West Coast Conference tournament. Since the Zags are a lock for making the tournament, they would not require a precious at-large bid because winning the league tourney automatically gets you in the Big Dance. Should the Zags lose, however, they will take up an at-large bid that no one is counting on at this point. This very scenerio happened in 2003 when San Diego upset the Zags in the WCC final, essentially stealing a bid by forcing Gonzaga to be one of the 34 at-large teams. Just keep this in mind when reading all the bracketologys and bracketographys.
• So who qualifies in the above description? Every major conference could see this happen, but many mid-major leagues have a higher probability of this occurring. Gonzaga, George Washington, Memphis, Air Force, Nevada, and possibly George Mason all come from leagues that will get one or two bids under normal circumstances. My bet is that at least two leagues steal an extra bid, essentially knocking two more at-large spots out (G Wash will not win the A-10 tourney, I promise).
• League tournaments also play a huge role in seeding. Take recent ACC teams for instance. Last year, NC State was projected "out" of the NCAA entering the ACC Tournament in DC. An openig round win plus an upset of Wake Forest and the WolfPack were a comfortable 10-seed. Two years ago, Maryland went from a projected 10-seed or so to a 4-seed by winning the ACC Tournament in Greensboro. My point is that seeding is very much up in the air entering Championship Week next week. Likewise for the so-called bubble teams.

With that out of the way, I have to make some predictions because that's all I can do since I'm not quite patient enough to just let things unfold. First of all, UCONN still looks like the best team. I do think a significant gap exists between [Duke, UCONN, 'Nova, Texas, & Memphis] and the rest of the decent teams. Sure, some other team could get hot and win four games. But, in the end, I just don't see anyone else winning the required six games to become Nat'l Champs. They certainly would have to go through more than one of those five teams to do so.

That being said, I still have a Five to Thrive for 2006. This is my personal gimmick of picking five teams that are not generally expected to make an extended run, but could, in my opinion, do so. Unfortunately, a lot will depend on the matchups for many of these teams. Last year, two of them played one another in the second round (Villinova & Florida). I was right on with Michigan St., but missed badly on Georgia Tech.

This year's Five to Thrive are a bit different. I actually identified four of these teams a few weeks ago and then forgot to post it. I am particularly intrigued by the young teams entering the tournament this year. Therefore, LSU, Kansas, and North Carolina are the first three of my list. I also decided a while back on Ohio St and they have played very well recently. But, I now think they are ripe for an early exit. I'll keep them on my list because they originally made it, but I am not convinced that the Buckeyes can block out the hype and win four games. Finally, I like Washington. The Huskies have, in my opinion, the most underrated great player in college basketball, Brandon Roy. I have seen him play a number of times this year and he is clutch late in games. They also have an experienced team in general, with five seniors I believe on the roster. Plus, this is a squad that advanced to the Sweet 16 last year. That makes my Five to Thrive: LSU, Kansas, UNC, Ohio St, and Washington. Honestly, I could see LSU making a deep run, but I'm not sure John Brady is a good enough coach to do it.

Finally, some random NCAA thoughts:

• Southern Cal could win the Pac-10 tournament; Minnesota could make a run in the Big Ten tourney.
• The CAA has three good teams: George Mason, UNC-W, and Hofstra. Only two will dance, and that's unfortunate.
• The Missouri Valley is either a deep league or an above-average league with no great team. I say watch Missouri State and Creighton come tourney time.
• W. Kentucky is pretty good. No coincidence that I have written about the Hilltoppers.
• Villinova plays harder than any team I have seen this year.
• No one is talking much about Texas. That is an error.
• I'm interested to see if any Big East teams besides UCONN and Villinova can advance past the Sweet 16. I have my doubts, I admit it. Likewise on the ACC other than Duke. Same for the SEC period.
• My current Elite Eight looks like this: Duke, UCONN, Villinova, Texas, LSU, Kansas, UCLA, and some fluke team (Missouri St anyone?).

Ok, that's enough. Trying to make up for too much time off. You all have a good one. Nod ya head to this.

I'm Back

Just an FYI: The Blue Team has been out of commission the last week or so. While away, I did manage to invent a new color to add to the Crayola box in the form of mucus coughed up from my lungs. He who is never sick was just that, with some sort of flu-like grossness. So, I'm not dead, and if you read this blog, it'll be up and running again fairly soon. Actual tournament projections may appear, along with the 5 to Thrive. You all take care and be good.

5 Teams to Watch

I think a well-organized, themed posting would be nice considering the randomness of recent writing. Therefore, to quench that thirst for all things bracket, I give you a list of 5 teams to watch coming down the stretch as they attempt to sneak into the Big Dance. This list focuses on which teams, given their schedules and conference tournaments, may have a chance of sneaking into the bracket at the last minute. Last year, for example, both West Virginia and NC State were on the outside looking in at this point in the season. The 'Neers ended up in the Elite 8 and State lost in the Sweet 16. Both scored 10-seeds in the bracket and upset 2-seeds Wake Forest and UCONN.

Criteria include the chance to notch an eye-catching victory (upset of a highly ranked team), win on the road, improve the RPI, or make some noise in the conference tournament. Without further adieu:

1. South Carolina - The Gamecocks made my initial projection way back in November over Vanderbilt and Arkansas (I think); four months later, this could very well come to fruition. SC must beat Kentucky in Columbia this weekend to keep their at-large case strong. Th G-cocks have games at Georgia and Auburn, both very winnable games. Two home games after Kentucky remain as Vandy and LSU come to town. The NIT Champs from last season are currently in line to defend their crown; however, they have a great shot of improving their status and sneaking into the biggest dance of them all.
   Prediction: Cocks go at least 3-2, win two games in SEC tourney, sneak IN to the NCAA Tournament
2. *Insert ACC Team Here* - Who is it going to be this year? Last year, Maryland fell off the bubble while NC State jumped into the tournament with a strong victory over Wake Forest in the ACC tournament. Virginia Tech and Miami also entered the league tourney last year with a chance to do the same, but both lost their first games. This year, we have Virginia, Florida St, Miami, and Maryland each with a chance to punch a dance ticket late. Florida St controls its own destiny, with games against the other three ACC bubble squads, plus a trip to Va Tech and a home date with Duke. Likewise for Maryland, who sees the other three along with Ga Tech and a trip to Chapel Hill. If either of these teams could pull the upset it needs (Duke or Carolina), that would go a long way.
   Prediction: This will not be decided until the second weekend in March in Greensboro, NC, the site of the ACC Tournament. I think all of the bubble teams will beat up on one another and force one of them to get hot during the league tourney to secure a bid. Florida St has the best shot of any of these teams in my opinion.
3. Louisville - Ah yes, those over-hyped Cardinals. All that pre-season pub and nothing to show for it. But, do not underestimate the ability of this team or its coach. The schedule is tough: @ Syracuse, vs DePaul, @ West Va, vs Marquette, @ UCONN. Yikes. The Cards need to just do enough to make sure they get to play in the 12-team Big East tournament at this point. Even going 4-1 in those games would only get them to .500 in league play. Remember as well that L'ville played a very weak non-conference schedule.
   Prediction: Just short, barring a run in the league tourney. They have to beat Syracuse first of all, which would push the OrangeHomoSapians to the bubble as well. Colleg Gameday will be at the Carrier Dome for what was supposed to be a great matchup this Saturday night. Cards finish a disappointing season in the NIT instead of on the big stage.
4. Nebraska - The Cornhuskers apparently do indeed have a basketball team. Currently 6-5 in the weaker-than-ever Big 12, the Big Red take advantage of the schedule that lies before them. Texas Tech, Colorado, Kansas St at home; Texas A&M and Mizzou on the road. Win out, which would put them at 11-5 in the league, and things are looking good.
   Prediction: Big Red will not make it. The RPI is bad, the Strength of Schedule is horrible, and playing hot down the stretch will not cover for that. The problem is there are so many other bubble teams ahead of Nebraska right now and leapfrogging them all down the stretch with a weak schedule is not going to happen.
5. Arkansas - The Hogs have a solid out-of-conference resume, with wins in Maui over Kansas, at home over Mizzou, and at Texas Tech. However, road wins in the SEC have been singular (at Auburn). On the bright side, Arkansas has two chances for a marquee win: Florida in Fayetteville (that would be at home) and at Tennessee.
   Prediction: Must go at least 3-2 in last five to get to .500 in SEC play; then, win at least one game in the SEC tourney in Atlanta. I think they can do it, but must fight it out with SC and Kentucky for a spot. However, I think they come up short and end up in the NIT yet again.

Other teams to watch include UNC-Wilmington (probably need to win CAA Tournament), Stanford (I doubt it), Air Force (terrible RPI), Butler (long-shot?), Bradley (solid RPI out of the MoVal, but 6 bids for that league would be shocking), Charlotte (RPI behind likes of South Alabama, Winthrop...probly lost any hope by falling at Wake Forest last weekend), Xavier (fading in A-10 play), and Temple (must beat Duke and go deep in A-10 tournament).

In summary, I think South Carolina and a fifth ACC team get in, with Louisville, Arkansas and Bradley having the best shot otherwise.

Check out www.bracketography.com for complete BracketBuster coverage this weekend. Holla at a playa when you see me on da skreet...

Link, quick thoughts

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=cornetta/060214

Click and read, it takes three minutes. Thank you Chief for drawing my attention to the most ghetto V-Day in history. No onions, please.

Did you all know the Winter Olympics are on right now? Yeah, me neither.

I think Duke is getting better. This scares me, as they've only lost once. Why? McRoberts is playing super-efficient and Nelson is contributing now. Add consistent third and fourth option scoring, depth, and athleticism to this team (which those two guys do) and you may have the national champion.

Dear Indiana coach Mike Davis: shut up. I do not feel sorry for you anymore. Two years ago, I thought you got a raw deal. But now, your constant whining about how much the IU fans don't like you is getting on my nerves. You were ahead, now you're not. And ps: win some games and they'll like you. It's pretty simple. Without the fluke run to the NCAA finals in '02, you would have been gone already.

Check out Bracket Buster games on Friday and Saturday on ESPN. Like it or not, the total sports network has done a great job of creating hype for nearly every week of college basketball from from about the third week in January til the tourney. Rivalry Week, Bracket Buster, Championship Week...oversaturating the market, yes, but making good business decisions at the same time.

NCAA stuff coming soon, I promise. O-ohh-ohhh-oh-oh-o (how do you spell out the Zombie Nation song with letters? The song that nearly every NCAA school uses to hype up the crowd and has been popular in Canada, esp hockey games, for years?). Peace.

V-Day & non-sports items

A very happy Valentine's Day to everyone. The Blue Team loves you...not only for the person you are, but for the reading of this blog that you do. Ok, mostly for reading this nonsense. I am not a huge fan of this holiday. No, I'm not mad cause I'm single and can't find love. And no, I'm not mad cause my wife will hold out on doing The Wild Thing with me because my V-Day gift is a letdown. Nonetheless, I'm not a huge fan. Why? Try this one:

My buddy from work and I go to lunch today and he realizes he has not yet sent a card to his girlfriend who lives in another state. This is clearly a problem. We journey to the Hallmark across the street where this story takes place.

Within thirty secnds of entering the store, I want to leave. Cards are everywhere, but none of them are intermediate words. Everything is sexually-charged, flirty, or "to the one I love"; neither of us fit in those categories. I, having been a good boy, had already mailed my cards off, so I had time to waste while he looked around.

I suddenly realized why this sucked so bad: here we stand amongst red and pink in a Hallmark with scented candles, Croc shoes, and Vera Bradley. I see "Francine" cards and love cards everywhere. Whitney Houston is blaring over the speakers (and I do mean blaring) with her early nineties hit "and Iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii will always love yoooooooooou." I looked at my friend and told him this was the very reason that most guys hate this day. Whitney was followed up with Marvin Gaye's "Sexual Healing" and Edwin McCain's "I'll Be," which is still stuck in my head. Mercifully, my friend found a card and some sort of V-Day candle without further delay. $13.96 later, we were out the door. He looked at me and said, "that's 13.96 that I'd have rather given to the homeless...what a waste."

So I don't really hate the holiday as much as it seems. I actually think taht when I'm married, it's kinda sweet to have a day to recognize the love I will hopefully have for my wife. I want her to feel loved and appreciated throughout the year, but especially on such an occasion. I don't believe in trying to make a huge to-do about it, but a sweet and thoughtful gift and card will suffice. However, the above story just goes to show how over-hyped and painful such a day is for most guys. Almost as over-hyped as Terrell Owens (token sports reference). This doesn't even consider the pressure girls put on guys: trust me, you do it and we feel it. No matter how many times you claim to not care and that it is not a big deal, we know better. And guys, if you don't know better, take it from me: giving her a car battery for V-Day is a guarenteed year in the dog house, minimum (yes, I know of someone who actually did that; surprisingly, he is still married).

On a related note, if I saw another Zales or Kay Jewelers commercial this weekend, I thought I would go insane. We get the point, every kiss begins with Kay. Does you kissing my butt begin with Kay?

I hate the chorus on "Grillz" by Nelly and Paul Wall. The girl that sings "yeah, your grill, yeah yeah, your grill" is annoying as crap. Thanks to my co-worker from the shopping adventure for helping me realize this.

Also, Destiny Child's songs are good except for two things: the destiny and the child (or would it be children?). I think their songs are generally catchy; however, repeating the catchy chorus 14 times while showing off your octive range makes catchy become annoying. Listen to the version of "Check up on it" that comes on the hip-hop stations and count how many times the chorus is repeated, especially at the end of the song, and notice how Beyonce sings over the top of it. Then, listen to every single one of their other singles and notice the exact same pattern. Almost as bad as Nickelback now and Creed back in the day.

Ok, enough. Sports update coming soon. Holla atcha boy.

NCAA Buffet

A weekend of isolation, cold weather, plus rain means one thing: lots of NCAA hoops. And I do mean lots. I'll try to stay organized, but no promises.

UCONN, Duke, Memphis, Villinova, & Texas all won fairly easily. UCONN demolished Seton Hall while Duke weathered the storm that is the meanie heads at the Comcast Center in Annapolis, MD. Therefore, it is still crowded at the top, with these five teams plus Illinois, who plays tomorrow at Ohio St (the Buckeyes handed the Illini their only loss until the NCAA Title Game last year), all in the running for a number one seed.

Big winners include George Washington on the road at St. Joe's. A close game throughout, the Colonials scored just enough and got a stop when they needed it to secure the 64-62 victory. Southern Illinois kept pace in the wild MoVal with a huge win over Creighton. Iowa took down Indiana on the road, putting the Hooisers in danger of fading all the way to the NIT. Florida and Tennessee both had tough wins in league play over LSU and Georgia (on the road) respectively. No win was larger however than Washington's defeat of UCLA. A season sweep over the Bruins helps Washington's resume and solidifies its chance of dancing.

On the flip side, a few teams took damaging losses. Iowa St fell to Kansas, who is playing unbelievable ball. The loss pushed the Cyclones to 3-6 in Big 12 play (I think), which is horrible considering that is somewhere around ninth place in a league that will be lucky to place 4 or 5 in the tourney. Old Dominion dropped one on the road at VCU, all but eliminating their chance of an at-large berth. Michigan St and Michigan lost at Big Ten bottom feeders Minnesota and Purdue. MSU is now pressed further out of the Big Ten title race while the Wolverines dropped to 6-5 in the league and toward bubble status. Charlotte lost at Wake Forest, the last place team in the ACC. After years (and I do mean years) of gripping, Charlotte got a shot at an ACC in-state squad and fell flat on its face. Poor officiating and poor play tainted this matchup; regardless, the 49ers' little shot at an at-large right now.

I just watched Stanford lose at Gonzaga. Nice win by the Zags; however, it seems that the number eight team or whatever they are would be able to defeat a team of Stanford's quality at home. I also watched Die Another Day's network TV premier (this is the advantage of having two TVs). The ending dialogue between Bond and Halle Berry's character (Jinx I think) is so stupid: "leave it in, take it out, it fits so well, I'm so bad, how bad are you..." If you've seen the film, you know what I'm talking about. I also just saw Darren Pang, the former ESPN hockey announcer on figure skating with Tom Hammond. My, how NBC has fallen, although I guess that might be considered an honor.

Anyway, the story for NCAA teams is to survive February and hit your stride near the end of the month heading into post-season tournaments. Props to the top teams for doing exactly this. Some predictions, a "Bracket How to Guide," some form of tracking bubble teams, and how things might turn out will come in the next couple weeks.

On a related note, Bracketography is publishing previews for the Bracket Buster games next weekend. I am responsible for Northern Arizona versus Western Kentcuky...I like the Hilltoppers alright, so I volunteered for this matchup. I am also compiling a history of the Bracket Buster weekend and how it has or has not been helpful in achieving its goal: publicizing smaller team and helping them gain at-large bids to the NCAA tournament. Check it out on www.bracketography.com

Alright, much more coming this week I hope. These words were my own, from my heart...

Gauntlet - A Little Bit of Everything Sports

Running the gauntlet since it has been quite a while since the last update. Let's get to it.

First is, of course, the Super Duper Bowl, XL variety. Yes, it was horribly boring. Yes there were some very questionable calls; I believe I went on record three weeks ago saying that officiating is just downright bad presently. And yes, the Steelers won. This was a difficult game to predict, and I missed. I really thought Seattle would win. Honestly, until New England, I don't recall having a good track record of Super Bowl predictions. But, I was happy Pittsburgh won. I think from now on, I will just pick the team that I want to win as my winner to make things easier.

Analysis of the game is not needed, as ESPN, etc, have that well-covered. I do believe the NFL is making a major mistake in claiming the game to be well officiated. I understand the hesitency of calling out officials, especially with a tedious collective barginning agreement between the league and the Officials Union. However, these playoffs may be remembered for only three things: The Bus, the fumble/tackle in the Indy/Pitt game, and the bad calls. I am not one to harp on officials, but I am worried for the league that the average fan will get further frustrated unless something is done about this soon.

Next up, college basketball is heating up as we come off the backstretch and into turn 3. Conference races are tight in places (Big East, Big Ten) and all but decided elsewhere (ACC, Big 12). Quick recent observations:

• Florida looked nasty against Kentucky. If they get running like that in the NCAAs, they will be a tough out.
• Texas is quietly playing terrific basketball. Beatable, yes, but it will take a lot to do it.
• Is Duke ever going to lose in the ACC? BC, FSU, and Carolina all had good chances and lost. FYI: there is not great conspiracy between Coach K and the officials. That is childish to insinuate, much less spend press time writing about. Yes, he intimidates the refs and Duke does get some breaks. But, all good teams do. Good teams play more aggressive, with more skill, and with better coaching, which is why they are good. Everything evens out, so quit crying about it.
• My bracket debut will be pushed back to the weekend I think. I've been logging some good hours at work and in the car, so even doing this blog is tough right now. I know you're all dying to see it, don't be jealous.

There is no way Wayne Gretzky knew nothing about his wife and his close friend/assistant coach's gambling ring. Does The Great one think we are all The Stupid One? Come on Wayne-o, you can't pull the wool over our eyes.

I hate the WWE Smackdown! angle between Mysterio and Orton. Referencing Eddie's memory is fine, but don't go saying that he's watching from hell. That is way over the line.

I think Hacksaw Jim Duggan and Goldust make me laugh more than anything on RAW right now. I'm not sure what the point is of burying Shelton Benjamin with his mama. Ashlee cannot wrestle, but Mickie James trips me out. Hmm, I wonder if HHH will win the Wrestlemania Title Shot tournament? Duh.

College basketball fans need to police themselves in the stands. Leaving a heated battle last night, I witnessed a fan of the home team tell a kid (who was around 13 and with his mother) that he was a "F'-ing faggot". The mother toke up for her son of course, but that family will surely lose any respect for this particular school for quite a while. I was too far away to take care of it myself, but people like that should be forced to eat their own poop upside down with jumper cables on their nuts. Also, yelling things like "F-you ___" and "Rapist" are not appropriate. So the next time you're at a game and someone does something stupid, do the right thing and tell them to shut up. Encourage your team, don't hurl insults at the other team that are generic, in poor taste, or just wrong. And by the way: if a guy puts 35 or so up on your team, he doesn't suck. So don't try and tell him he does. Cause you look like a jackass.

Enough for today, I'm about down for the count. Rolled in about 4am last night and had to be in the office at 8:30am. And I'll be at another game tonight. Dip it pop it twurk it stop it, check on me tonight (cause I'll be asleep).

Super Bowl XL: Prediction

Quick post due to the game starting in 25 mins. I think Seattle wins tonight. Someone steps up from their receivers and has a great game, along the lines of Engram or Jackson, and has a great night. The defense is good enough to get it done. I really have little reasoning except for the fact that I just think Seattle is still overlooked and will play a more even-feel game than Pittsburgh. The Steelers' emotion may get in the way, but it could also help if Seattle comes out tight.

For the record, go Steelers. But, Seattle wins 31-20.

I just turned on the pregame and saw the Steelers are playing a home game. Maybe it is because the terrible towels are bright yellow, but they seem to be everywhere. The crowd will be a factor either being completely silent and stunned, turning the tension up on Pittsburgh; or, it will be loud and rocking, adding pressure to the Seahawks.

I hope it is a good, tight game. More later.