At the risk of divorce, let’s weigh in on some 2012 NBA Draft thoughts prior to tonight’s festivities – live from Punta Cana, Dominican Republic. I'm freshly married, slightly sunburned, and very anxious to see what the Charlotte Bobcats do to change the path of the franchise this evening. Without further adieu, let me get under a cabana and lay it out for you.
The Lottery:
Pick 1: New Orleans – Anthony Davis
Pick 2: Charlotte – trade with Cleveland for #4, #32, & #33. Cavs take Bradley Beal
Pick 3: Washington – Michael Kidd-Gilchrest. This is a really important pick here, as taking Barnes over MKG changes a lot for the remainder of the lottery. I think we can safely assume Beal is gone at #3, as I think Charlotte almost has to settle for one of the trade options that would still net them Thomas Robinson. The question is whether that comes from Washington or Cleveland, and the Cavs have better assets right now.
Pick 4: Cleveland – aforementioned trade with Charlotte. Bobcats take Thomas Robinson - see below for further thoughts
Pick 5: Sacramento – trade with Houston for #12 & #18 or a pick & Kyle Lowry. Rockets take Andre Drummond. I love what Darryl Morely is trying to do - convert numerous assets into 2-3 major assets. Is it a gamble? Of course, but a calculated one. Gather pieces, evaluate for a few years, decide who is expendable, then make some moves and get the pieces you ultimately need. I hope it works out for him & their franchise, the NBA is more fun when Houston is good.
Pick 6: Portland – Damian Lillard
Pick 7: Golden State – Dion Waiters
Pick 8: Toronto – I think they trade out of this pick in most scenarios, but not if Harrison Barnes hangs around. They keep it & draft him here.
Pick 9: Detroit – Tyler Zeller – can bang & pick-and-roll, solid rebounder, better fit at center spot for Detroit than Henson would be. Drafting Henson would force them to keep Greg Monroe at center, which does not seem to be their plan (nor should it be). Zeller makes more sense here.
Pick 10: New Orleans – Austin Rivers. Chad Ford, among others, has dubbed him the most-polarizing player in the draft. My take, which will likely be mentioned again later, is if he learns how to be a scoring point guard, then he’s one of the 3-5 best players in this draft. If he tries to be exclusively a shooting guard, he’ll be a bench scoring ball-hog and nothing more – Ricky Davis or Jamal Crawford at best.
Pick 11: Portland – Myers Leonard
Pick 12: Houston – traded to Sacramento, who I’m not sure would keep both picks. Sounds like they want a veteran or two more than more young players. I don’t like the idea of giving up on Tyreke Evans so soon, I think he’ll be much better moved back to a guard spot – better meaning both happier & more effective. Anyway, Sacto takes Terrance Ross here if they keep the pick.
Pick 13: Phoenix – Terrance Jones
Pick 14: Milwaukee – Fab Melo (way too high, I know)
The Bobcats:
For Charlotte, tonight means a lot – getting a good player, filling needs, trying to put some salve on the sting of losing out on Anthony Davis. I’ve been consistent in saying Bradley Beal is the second-best prospect in the draft, but it just doesn’t seem like MJ & Co are that interested in taking him, even before the Ben Gordon trade (which I liked pretty well, by the way). Thomas Robinson is a decent enough selection and was a great college player, but it’s just really hard to see him improving a ton. Adding a jumper to play pick-and-roll in the new offense is essential to his success, and I think he has the tools to do it without much problem. However, in the short-term, selecting Robinson will make the likelihood of moving Tyrus Thomas for a bag of chips increase. He & his terrible salary have got to go if the Cats have Robinson & Biyombo already, perhaps in exchange for an equally-useless contract that at least plays small forward. Biyombo was drafted with the idea of playing power forward long-term, and so would Robinson, but Cho & Higgins have both said numerous times recently that they are most concerned about getting talent than exactly how all the pieces fit.
To me, the above scenario is about the best option for Charlotte if they have honed in on Robinson – pick up some additional assets and still get the guy they seem to want. Having picks 31, 33, & 34 could allow the Cats to pair two of those together to move back into the late first round as well, targeting teams who enjoy don’t want the higher salary guarantee next season & could look to draft-and-stash a guy as well. Memphis (pressed against the cap), Chicago or San Antonio could all make sense (past stashers). I could also see a scenario developing where Sacramento finally decides to move up for Robinson, but they’d have to really overwhelm Charlotte with an offer to take the guy Charlotte seems to want.
The other trade option has long been using pick numero dos to acquire a veteran scorer – Rudy Gay & James Harden having both been mentioned. I’d be here until the draft listing the reasons I don’t like that option, so we’ll just summarize by saying “no por favor”.
The Tar Heels:
Lastly, at least for this afternoon, Kendall Marshall is the only remaining UNC draftee I have not yet mentioned. It seems that unless someone really falls in love with him and trades up, he’ll likely fall to at least Dallas at #17, if not further. I would not be surprised at all to see a team take Marquis Teague ahead of him, as today’s game seems to really value speed at the point guard spot. Remember, teams are drafting prospects, not just players as they are now. Marshall will be great on the right team – I really believe that – but there are plenty of “bad” spots for him that I just hope pass him by. Either way, four more UNC guys are going in the first round tonight, making the NBA Draft another #GDTBATH.
Thursday, June 28, 2012
Thursday, July 28, 2011
The Day Carolina Lost Its Way
The Carolina Way. That's what we stand for. Everyone who has matriculated through the hallowed grounds of dear ol' Chapel Hill. Play Hard. Play Smart. Play Together. It's The Carolina Way. Per Coach Dean E. Smith, who knows a thing or two about leadership, these are the foundations to a successful program. The concepts apply to a basketball team, a business organization, and, one might assume, an entire university. The characteristics of being a Tar Heel, of this revered level of operation in life, are embodied in each student-turned-alumni at UNC. We talk about it, subscribe to it, carry it out in an almost cult-like fashion. And yes, it is obnoxious. If you didn't go to Carolina, you don't get it, and that's ok. Sometimes, our own don't get it either.
"Coach Butch Davis" is now known as "former Coach, Butch Davis". As of right now, we do not have a head football coach in Chapel Hill. No longer is BMFD the caretaker of The Carolina Way for our football program. And it's July 27th. And practice starts in, oh, eight days.
You know the story, the gory details: agents, not-so-studious athletes, benefits, works cited pages, tutors, suspensions, Black Santa, etc. Hell, this blog has been practically MIA because of it. It sucks, it's been really tough to sit through and watch. Few weeks went by without something else leaking out, another violation being reveled or at least speculated about. I recall being really upset when the initial story broke, thinking I was a bit embarrassed to be a Tar Heel. And then Thursday happened.
I am not here to argue whether or not Butch Davis deserved to be fired. What's done is done. It's really tough when your program is in disarray to distance yourself from it and make an unbiased evaluation as to what the proper reaction should be. Apparently it took our Chancellor over a year to successful distance himself from things to make an evaluation, and subsequently a decision, about how to handle things. In the process, he apparently forgot what The Carolina Way is really all about.
Playing Hard. We've done that. The program took this opportunity (if you can call Marvin Austin's initial mess an "opportunity") to delve into the entire athletic program (so we are lead to believe) and leave no stone unturned. That's how the entire academic scandal came about anyway, from the self-evaluation. And we've tried to fix things. Staff has been re-educated on how to monitor, how to hire tutors, how to ensure that assistance is provided in the appropriate fashion. We're trying really hard to clean things up. I have a hard time believing that our program is any "dirtier" than most others, but hey, we got caught and are trying to fix it. Not so much to avoid punishment, but to reiterate our commitment to The Carolina Way. And that's a good thing, something all major programs should do on a regular basis. The complacency within UNC, the idea that "we're Carolina and we don't screw up like that" was a big factor in allowing things to spiral out of control with few checks and balances in place and properly enforced to prevent an issue. The problem is this "fixing of issues" is at the long-term expense of the football program.
Play Smart. We have not. For an institution lead by so many intelligent people, playing smart could not be further from the truth. There was the overreaction of sitting every player who may or may not have had anything to do with a tutor. There was the misrepresentation of Michael McAdoo and what his role was in the scandal, basically telling the NCAA that he was permanently ineligible when the punishment did not fit the crime, then trying to backtrack almost a year later. And of course, there was firing a coach on July 27th. No mater how you cut it, that's not smart. The lack of common sense by people in power is baffling. Yet, while I say on one hand that I can't believe this has happened, I say on the other that this was an almost-predictable mismanagement by UNC.
Play Together. Again, we have not. And never have. What a lot of folks do not realize is that there has long been a power struggle within UNC. On one side, there are the supporters of our athletics program (that would be me, duh). They want to see the Tar Heels succeed in every sport, winning championships along the way. They want to grow revenue, outsource marketing rights, build new facilities, and compete at the highest level. And, they want to do this The Carolina Way. On the other side, you have the detractors of our athletics program. OK, "detractors" is an understatement, but I can't think of a bigger word without going to Dictionary.com (I placed out of English 11, they assumed I already knew those synonyms - oops), and I'm on a roll here and can't stop to look it up. Let's just say they freakin' hate sports and think college should only involve a classroom, not an athletics field. This faction of academia is present at a lot of higher education institutions, but is particularly prominent in Chapel Hill. They protect the value and emphasis placed on academics, many times in good faith. Usually within an institution, this group is a minority that just talks a lot, but really can't win. Athletics is the snowball rolling downhill that can't be stopped; haters gone hate, but they ultimately have to deal with it. Until now.
A bit more detail on this battle at UNC reveals that the football program has been a target for a long, long time. The men's basketball program has been so good and so clean (knock on all the wood you can find) for so long that the academia couldn't say much. To attack the basketball team, especially under Coach Smith or Coach Williams, is blasphemous. Other sports have been successful: men's lacrosse, women's soccer, baseball to name a few. But none of these sports garner the attention or revenue of football, nor carry the negative stereotypes that are frequently placed on the football program - don't worry, I'm not going there. But, the fact remains that there is a large contingency of power players at Carolina who don't want to Play Together. They would rather football remain obsolete as it has for thirty years or so and protect its emphasis on academics at the expense of the program. The supporters of Carolina football finally garnered enough support and power in recent years to hire a big-name coach and staff, raise funds for growth, and expand Kenan Stadium. This momentum has now been halted. The scandal, in the minds of the academia, only validates what they feared would happen with a big-time football program. But that's where they get a bit off-kilter.
The division within UNC has driven the leadership of the institution to overreact at an inopportune time. Firing Coach Davis early in the investigation would have been without proper cause (not enough information at the time). Firing him after last season was tough after the bowl win and probably would not have been quite justified given that the NCAA had not released any findings at the time. Once the allegations were communicated, if Chancellor Thorp felt Davis was ultimately responsible (which Coach Davis said at the ACC Kick-off event this week) and deserved to be fired, the prudent decision would have been to allow him to coach out the season and then make a move. At least that was the right thing to do in the best long-term interest of the football program. It is clearly to the detriment of the program as a whole (current players, staff, fans, etc) to make this move right now. As I stated after the firing was announced, it shows a complete lack of the big picture effect on the program. The allegations-turned-violations-turned-sanctions are in and of themselves enough to really put the program in a bad spot. Add in firing the coach and you've got a worse spot. But essentially ruining another season while undermining the supposed emphasis and support the football program receives is enough to set this program back for years and years to come - and that's the worst spot of all: hopeless.
An already-bad situation has been made worse. This is not a mole hill; the issues are bigger than that. But a situation that should have been just a rolling hill has now been made into a mountain. It's almost like we're trying to give ourselves the Death Penalty (SMU-style, not electric chair). The self-flagellation by the institution's leadership is set to ruin the program long-term. No prominent coach will look at UNC as the "sleeping giant" it is; instead, they will see a coach fired after trying to fix his errors. They see an institution that does not truly support, and nearly attempts to screw over, its football program.
To me, the Play Together trait should have led to the entire university coming, you know, together, to build towards a solution. A program that wins the right way, year after year. When a child makes a mistake, yelling at him or her and putting them in the corner is only half the battle. The NCAA and/or self-imposed sanctions are punishment enough, the equivalent of putting UNC in the corner. But, teaching that child the error of his or her ways and allowing the issue to be fixed moving forward - i.e. "learning their lesson" - seems to be the other half. A unified institution would have done this. And it would have done this at the proper time, not at a time where it screws over the current football student-athletes and remaining staff. How are we supposed to play with our own university leadership against us? How are fans expected to fill the new Blue Zone and support the school, along with these players? How are we supposed to recruit the next generation of student-athletes when they don't know who might be around to coach them? Until the University of North Carolina decides to Play Together, these types of problems will continue.
For now, academia has won. The right people are ultimately in power to make these decisions and have done so....at completely the wrong time, at the expense of the student-athletes and the program as a whole. It's a really tough time, a time when it's a little bit embarrassing to be a Tar Heel. Tough to encourage and implement The Carolina Way when our leadership is not embodying the traits themselves.
A few other thoughts, in a less-poetic form:
"Coach Butch Davis" is now known as "former Coach, Butch Davis". As of right now, we do not have a head football coach in Chapel Hill. No longer is BMFD the caretaker of The Carolina Way for our football program. And it's July 27th. And practice starts in, oh, eight days.
You know the story, the gory details: agents, not-so-studious athletes, benefits, works cited pages, tutors, suspensions, Black Santa, etc. Hell, this blog has been practically MIA because of it. It sucks, it's been really tough to sit through and watch. Few weeks went by without something else leaking out, another violation being reveled or at least speculated about. I recall being really upset when the initial story broke, thinking I was a bit embarrassed to be a Tar Heel. And then Thursday happened.
I am not here to argue whether or not Butch Davis deserved to be fired. What's done is done. It's really tough when your program is in disarray to distance yourself from it and make an unbiased evaluation as to what the proper reaction should be. Apparently it took our Chancellor over a year to successful distance himself from things to make an evaluation, and subsequently a decision, about how to handle things. In the process, he apparently forgot what The Carolina Way is really all about.
Playing Hard. We've done that. The program took this opportunity (if you can call Marvin Austin's initial mess an "opportunity") to delve into the entire athletic program (so we are lead to believe) and leave no stone unturned. That's how the entire academic scandal came about anyway, from the self-evaluation. And we've tried to fix things. Staff has been re-educated on how to monitor, how to hire tutors, how to ensure that assistance is provided in the appropriate fashion. We're trying really hard to clean things up. I have a hard time believing that our program is any "dirtier" than most others, but hey, we got caught and are trying to fix it. Not so much to avoid punishment, but to reiterate our commitment to The Carolina Way. And that's a good thing, something all major programs should do on a regular basis. The complacency within UNC, the idea that "we're Carolina and we don't screw up like that" was a big factor in allowing things to spiral out of control with few checks and balances in place and properly enforced to prevent an issue. The problem is this "fixing of issues" is at the long-term expense of the football program.
Play Smart. We have not. For an institution lead by so many intelligent people, playing smart could not be further from the truth. There was the overreaction of sitting every player who may or may not have had anything to do with a tutor. There was the misrepresentation of Michael McAdoo and what his role was in the scandal, basically telling the NCAA that he was permanently ineligible when the punishment did not fit the crime, then trying to backtrack almost a year later. And of course, there was firing a coach on July 27th. No mater how you cut it, that's not smart. The lack of common sense by people in power is baffling. Yet, while I say on one hand that I can't believe this has happened, I say on the other that this was an almost-predictable mismanagement by UNC.
Play Together. Again, we have not. And never have. What a lot of folks do not realize is that there has long been a power struggle within UNC. On one side, there are the supporters of our athletics program (that would be me, duh). They want to see the Tar Heels succeed in every sport, winning championships along the way. They want to grow revenue, outsource marketing rights, build new facilities, and compete at the highest level. And, they want to do this The Carolina Way. On the other side, you have the detractors of our athletics program. OK, "detractors" is an understatement, but I can't think of a bigger word without going to Dictionary.com (I placed out of English 11, they assumed I already knew those synonyms - oops), and I'm on a roll here and can't stop to look it up. Let's just say they freakin' hate sports and think college should only involve a classroom, not an athletics field. This faction of academia is present at a lot of higher education institutions, but is particularly prominent in Chapel Hill. They protect the value and emphasis placed on academics, many times in good faith. Usually within an institution, this group is a minority that just talks a lot, but really can't win. Athletics is the snowball rolling downhill that can't be stopped; haters gone hate, but they ultimately have to deal with it. Until now.
A bit more detail on this battle at UNC reveals that the football program has been a target for a long, long time. The men's basketball program has been so good and so clean (knock on all the wood you can find) for so long that the academia couldn't say much. To attack the basketball team, especially under Coach Smith or Coach Williams, is blasphemous. Other sports have been successful: men's lacrosse, women's soccer, baseball to name a few. But none of these sports garner the attention or revenue of football, nor carry the negative stereotypes that are frequently placed on the football program - don't worry, I'm not going there. But, the fact remains that there is a large contingency of power players at Carolina who don't want to Play Together. They would rather football remain obsolete as it has for thirty years or so and protect its emphasis on academics at the expense of the program. The supporters of Carolina football finally garnered enough support and power in recent years to hire a big-name coach and staff, raise funds for growth, and expand Kenan Stadium. This momentum has now been halted. The scandal, in the minds of the academia, only validates what they feared would happen with a big-time football program. But that's where they get a bit off-kilter.
The division within UNC has driven the leadership of the institution to overreact at an inopportune time. Firing Coach Davis early in the investigation would have been without proper cause (not enough information at the time). Firing him after last season was tough after the bowl win and probably would not have been quite justified given that the NCAA had not released any findings at the time. Once the allegations were communicated, if Chancellor Thorp felt Davis was ultimately responsible (which Coach Davis said at the ACC Kick-off event this week) and deserved to be fired, the prudent decision would have been to allow him to coach out the season and then make a move. At least that was the right thing to do in the best long-term interest of the football program. It is clearly to the detriment of the program as a whole (current players, staff, fans, etc) to make this move right now. As I stated after the firing was announced, it shows a complete lack of the big picture effect on the program. The allegations-turned-violations-turned-sanctions are in and of themselves enough to really put the program in a bad spot. Add in firing the coach and you've got a worse spot. But essentially ruining another season while undermining the supposed emphasis and support the football program receives is enough to set this program back for years and years to come - and that's the worst spot of all: hopeless.
An already-bad situation has been made worse. This is not a mole hill; the issues are bigger than that. But a situation that should have been just a rolling hill has now been made into a mountain. It's almost like we're trying to give ourselves the Death Penalty (SMU-style, not electric chair). The self-flagellation by the institution's leadership is set to ruin the program long-term. No prominent coach will look at UNC as the "sleeping giant" it is; instead, they will see a coach fired after trying to fix his errors. They see an institution that does not truly support, and nearly attempts to screw over, its football program.
To me, the Play Together trait should have led to the entire university coming, you know, together, to build towards a solution. A program that wins the right way, year after year. When a child makes a mistake, yelling at him or her and putting them in the corner is only half the battle. The NCAA and/or self-imposed sanctions are punishment enough, the equivalent of putting UNC in the corner. But, teaching that child the error of his or her ways and allowing the issue to be fixed moving forward - i.e. "learning their lesson" - seems to be the other half. A unified institution would have done this. And it would have done this at the proper time, not at a time where it screws over the current football student-athletes and remaining staff. How are we supposed to play with our own university leadership against us? How are fans expected to fill the new Blue Zone and support the school, along with these players? How are we supposed to recruit the next generation of student-athletes when they don't know who might be around to coach them? Until the University of North Carolina decides to Play Together, these types of problems will continue.
For now, academia has won. The right people are ultimately in power to make these decisions and have done so....at completely the wrong time, at the expense of the student-athletes and the program as a whole. It's a really tough time, a time when it's a little bit embarrassing to be a Tar Heel. Tough to encourage and implement The Carolina Way when our leadership is not embodying the traits themselves.
A few other thoughts, in a less-poetic form:
- I don't see how Carolina is going to be able to attract a coach with any decent resume following the season. So here's hoping that the interim coach (Pittman, Withers, whomever) is a good one and ready to stick around. Hopefully that will help ease the recruiting impact to some extent.
- That said, if they go outside the current staff after the season, they're going to have to grab a young head coach from a smaller school or an assistant looking for his first "big" gig. Mike London, Derek Dooley types. Or, one might say, a Mack Brown type. IMO, there's a high-level recruiter who's worked really hard for a number of successful programs and whose father has won the right way for a lot of years at an ACC rival in Blacksburg that might be that type of fit. I know he hasn't been a head guy before, but I'm just saying. Biased, yes, but I'm just saying.
- I fully expect the current edition of the Tar Heel football team to unify and be very, very motivated for this season. I hope the coaching staff and leaders on the team can bottle this feeling of betrayal up (cause let's be honest, that's what they feel right now) and turn it into something positive on the gridiron.
- I doubt Dick Baddour is sleeping well these days. This happened on his watch too.
- I'm betting State fans are sad to see Butch go given his lack of success in the rivalry. Now you know how we felt after you fired Sidney. And ran Herb off. And Les Robinson.
- Could you imagine if this had happened to the basketball program? Riots in the streets. Football is a big, big deal to me, probably more so than most others. But still...I'd jump off something really high if it were hoops. For now, I'm just turning to Goldschlagger.
- Just kidding.
- Again, for now. I'm just kidding for now.
- In his relatively brief term as Chancellor, I have found Holden Thorp to be engaging and fun. He seemed to "get it". I'm not sure his ability to relate to people has changed through this decision, but I can promise you that folks' ability to like him has. It's a bit tough anytime you're in a high-level leadership position to please even a majority of people, much less all of them. But I think anyone with a remotely-high level of common sense would say that the timing of his decision, which he is claiming is his and his alone, is horrendous. Ridiculous. Lunacy. Sabotage. It, um, blows.
- The last time I stayed up late to write about Carolina athletics was this here. Boy, what a different feeling that night.
- A writer friend and I were discussing earlier about Carolina football as a sleeping giant. We've heard it for years: the recruits are close by (NC, SC, VA, and select others), the facilities are built, the school is excellent, yada yada yada. It would seem that folks would be excited, dare I say hopeful, about becoming a program who is at the top of both revenue sports. Texas, Florida, Ohio State...and North Carolina. But it is almost like the school has a collective fear of being that good in two sports, for being known as an elite athletics institution as opposed to an elite basketball school. Of any school in the ACC, Carolina is probably the best bet to ever become that. At least until now.
Monday, April 26, 2010
State of the Union: Charlotte Bobcats
The 2009-2010 season ended for the Charlotte Bobcats tonight, a 4-0 series sweep at the hands of the defending Eastern Conference Champion Orlando Magic. The series was never in doubt, as all but one game was won easily by Orlando. While I think most people who really follow them (all six of us) knew this was an awful matchup for the Cats, a number of national media types and analysts thought Charlotte had a chance to spring an upset or at least test Orlando. So much for that. Dwight Howard was a virtual non-factor in all four games, yet Orlando dominated most of the series. Jameer Nelson, Rashard Lewis, Vince Carter, etc...each had a hand in the series win. Now, with the season officially over following the Bobcats' first ever playoff appearance, we must address what's next. Who stays, who goes, who coaches: a Bobcats State of the Union.
First, we need to acknowledge where this current team is. As constructed, the Bobcats just about maximized their potential this season. A better first-round matchup might have allowed for a playoff win or two, perhaps even stealing one series, but that is it. Charlotte wins games when they out-hustle & out-focus opponents. However, that is not an effective formula for playoff wins when everyone is engaged and ready to go. So, this exact team is not going to do much better than this.
Second, all decisions are going to be made in relation to the salary cap. Hoopshype has an organized, easy-to-follow NBA Salaries section, which any fan of the league should reference when considering his or her team's moves. Seriously, take two minutes to click the link and see how things break down for the Bobcats and others, it is much easier than you think. Now, we can assume Tyson Chandler will exercise his Player Option for a sparkling $12.75 million (yay!). Obviously that sucks, but this was known when the Bobcats traded for him in exchange for Emeka Okafor's ridiculously terrible contract that has four more years on it. The $59.536 million total the Bobcats are on the hook for is about $9 million below the estimated luxury tax threshold for 2010-2011, but that does not include Raymond Felton being re-signed or getting someone to take his place, nor does it account for any drafted players. It does, however, take into account a potential qualifying offer for Tyrus Thomas.
Speaking of, that brings us to the third item for the upcoming off-season: who to re-sign. I don't so much want to speculate much about who potential free agents might be to target, but maybe we can at least establish who might be back. I actually think Felton could return in spite of a ridiculously poor effort against Jameer Nelson in the playoff series. The reason is two-fold: 1) Felton's cost just went down a bit, as other teams are not going to be anxious to sign him and sell their fan base on it being a good move; and 2) Felton wants to stay in Charlotte and continue growing under Larry Brown (assuming he is back as coach...more on that later). An issue for the Cats is that by my count, Ray is one of only three current starting PG's who are on the open market this summer: Felton, Derek Fisher, & Chris Duhon. Add in guys like Steve Blake, Luke Ridnour, potentially Jordan Farmar & TJ Ford among others, and what you get is a terrible class of free agent point guards. Felton looks like Isaiah Thomas in comparison to those guys, so we'll see if the dearth of quality lead guards drives up his price and force Charlotte to move in a different direction.
The team's other major free agent decision is what to do about Ty Thomas. Acquired from Chicago to provide depth up front, Thomas has been his typical erratic self: invisible for two games, then great off the bench for two games...rinse, repeat. The kid has a ton of athletic ability and a good jumper from eighteen feet, but he has the label of being difficult to keep dialed in and lacks a great deal of basketball IQ. Taking a one-year deal from Charlotte at $6.25 million and trying to play his value up for the following summer might be in Thomas' best interest. But, can Charlotte afford that price? The answer lies in the next point.
And that point, #4 if you're keeping count, is who gets traded? MJ already alluded to the high likelihood that some trades will be made this summer. Between His Airness and His Suitcaseness, you know they will be trying to move some guys out. This team has no first-round draft pick and no really promising young players, unless there is a midget league looking to sign Augustin. We just established that the team is perilously close to the luxury tax line if they re-sign Felton & Thomas, not to mention Larry Hughes or his replacement. Therefore, some moves to clear some space and/or acquire some better players will have to be made.
At this point, Charlotte is probably willing to discuss anyone except Gerald Wallace or Stephen Jackson (unless a great offer was made). Boris Diaw or Thomas will end up playing power forward, but I don't think both stay on the team. Diaw has two years and $18 million left on his contract, but he is really a poor fit playing alongside Jackson (who has the ball in his hands a lot, making it hard for Diaw to facilitate) and the invisible man who plays center (Diaw needs a tough, defensive-minded big man next to him to cover up his PLAP tendencies). The Frenchman can be had for cheap and someone like Mike D'Antoni and the Knicks might be willing to make a deal after the July 1st free agent shakedown. Otherwise, again, everyone but Crash & Captain Jack had better be renting.
Fifth, and perhaps most important, the Bobcats must figure out who is going to be their coach. Will Suitcase Larry return to continue building this organization? A month ago, it sounded like a no. Two weeks ago, it sounded more likely. Now, it is back to no. This is unfortunately what you get with Larry Brown: rebuilding, trading, making progress, limited success...then the rumors and ultimately, a peace sign as he walks out the door. While I hope Coach Brown returns, I just don't see it happening. Too many rumors and reports for there to not be fire behind this smoke. Changing coaches means changing philosophies, changing players, changing needs, changing underwear...I feel like Tupac. Continuity means so much to a professional sports organization, especially in the NBA (see Spurs, San Antonio) and another complete turnover is not what the Bobcats need.
As you can tell, I am not particularly high on the NBA Championship potential of the Bobcats, next year or anytime soon. This team lacks the stud player needed to win a title and can't draft one (oddly, they've never sucked bad enough unless you count the time we drafted third and took Adam Morri-...%#&@*#) and won't be able to sign one (not enough $ or ability to lure someone to play for a non-descript franchise in a college market). They have too many dollars committed to guys who are average players or worse and probably will have their fourth coach in five seasons. The current team has hit its ceiling and the flexibility needed to take the next step is missing.
This summer will be very important for the Bobcats. A 45-37 record, a playoff appearance, a new owner who happens to have grown up in the state and the greatest player in the history of professional basketball...the momentum is there, but it has to be sustained. Somehow, the front office has to convince Larry Brown to commit to staying and must make the personnel moves that will maximize the roster. The wild card in Rod Higgins' pocket is $19.5 million in expiring contracts that another team might be willing to take on in exchange for an expensive piece or two with long-term deals (Chandler & Nazi). I'll be interested to see how the organization comes out of the summer and if they continue going in the right direction. Hopefully this time next year, the Bobcats will still be playing basketball and might can double its devoted fan base from 6 to 12. Time will tell.
First, we need to acknowledge where this current team is. As constructed, the Bobcats just about maximized their potential this season. A better first-round matchup might have allowed for a playoff win or two, perhaps even stealing one series, but that is it. Charlotte wins games when they out-hustle & out-focus opponents. However, that is not an effective formula for playoff wins when everyone is engaged and ready to go. So, this exact team is not going to do much better than this.
Second, all decisions are going to be made in relation to the salary cap. Hoopshype has an organized, easy-to-follow NBA Salaries section, which any fan of the league should reference when considering his or her team's moves. Seriously, take two minutes to click the link and see how things break down for the Bobcats and others, it is much easier than you think. Now, we can assume Tyson Chandler will exercise his Player Option for a sparkling $12.75 million (yay!). Obviously that sucks, but this was known when the Bobcats traded for him in exchange for Emeka Okafor's ridiculously terrible contract that has four more years on it. The $59.536 million total the Bobcats are on the hook for is about $9 million below the estimated luxury tax threshold for 2010-2011, but that does not include Raymond Felton being re-signed or getting someone to take his place, nor does it account for any drafted players. It does, however, take into account a potential qualifying offer for Tyrus Thomas.
Speaking of, that brings us to the third item for the upcoming off-season: who to re-sign. I don't so much want to speculate much about who potential free agents might be to target, but maybe we can at least establish who might be back. I actually think Felton could return in spite of a ridiculously poor effort against Jameer Nelson in the playoff series. The reason is two-fold: 1) Felton's cost just went down a bit, as other teams are not going to be anxious to sign him and sell their fan base on it being a good move; and 2) Felton wants to stay in Charlotte and continue growing under Larry Brown (assuming he is back as coach...more on that later). An issue for the Cats is that by my count, Ray is one of only three current starting PG's who are on the open market this summer: Felton, Derek Fisher, & Chris Duhon. Add in guys like Steve Blake, Luke Ridnour, potentially Jordan Farmar & TJ Ford among others, and what you get is a terrible class of free agent point guards. Felton looks like Isaiah Thomas in comparison to those guys, so we'll see if the dearth of quality lead guards drives up his price and force Charlotte to move in a different direction.
The team's other major free agent decision is what to do about Ty Thomas. Acquired from Chicago to provide depth up front, Thomas has been his typical erratic self: invisible for two games, then great off the bench for two games...rinse, repeat. The kid has a ton of athletic ability and a good jumper from eighteen feet, but he has the label of being difficult to keep dialed in and lacks a great deal of basketball IQ. Taking a one-year deal from Charlotte at $6.25 million and trying to play his value up for the following summer might be in Thomas' best interest. But, can Charlotte afford that price? The answer lies in the next point.
And that point, #4 if you're keeping count, is who gets traded? MJ already alluded to the high likelihood that some trades will be made this summer. Between His Airness and His Suitcaseness, you know they will be trying to move some guys out. This team has no first-round draft pick and no really promising young players, unless there is a midget league looking to sign Augustin. We just established that the team is perilously close to the luxury tax line if they re-sign Felton & Thomas, not to mention Larry Hughes or his replacement. Therefore, some moves to clear some space and/or acquire some better players will have to be made.
At this point, Charlotte is probably willing to discuss anyone except Gerald Wallace or Stephen Jackson (unless a great offer was made). Boris Diaw or Thomas will end up playing power forward, but I don't think both stay on the team. Diaw has two years and $18 million left on his contract, but he is really a poor fit playing alongside Jackson (who has the ball in his hands a lot, making it hard for Diaw to facilitate) and the invisible man who plays center (Diaw needs a tough, defensive-minded big man next to him to cover up his PLAP tendencies). The Frenchman can be had for cheap and someone like Mike D'Antoni and the Knicks might be willing to make a deal after the July 1st free agent shakedown. Otherwise, again, everyone but Crash & Captain Jack had better be renting.
Fifth, and perhaps most important, the Bobcats must figure out who is going to be their coach. Will Suitcase Larry return to continue building this organization? A month ago, it sounded like a no. Two weeks ago, it sounded more likely. Now, it is back to no. This is unfortunately what you get with Larry Brown: rebuilding, trading, making progress, limited success...then the rumors and ultimately, a peace sign as he walks out the door. While I hope Coach Brown returns, I just don't see it happening. Too many rumors and reports for there to not be fire behind this smoke. Changing coaches means changing philosophies, changing players, changing needs, changing underwear...I feel like Tupac. Continuity means so much to a professional sports organization, especially in the NBA (see Spurs, San Antonio) and another complete turnover is not what the Bobcats need.
As you can tell, I am not particularly high on the NBA Championship potential of the Bobcats, next year or anytime soon. This team lacks the stud player needed to win a title and can't draft one (oddly, they've never sucked bad enough unless you count the time we drafted third and took Adam Morri-...%#&@*#) and won't be able to sign one (not enough $ or ability to lure someone to play for a non-descript franchise in a college market). They have too many dollars committed to guys who are average players or worse and probably will have their fourth coach in five seasons. The current team has hit its ceiling and the flexibility needed to take the next step is missing.
This summer will be very important for the Bobcats. A 45-37 record, a playoff appearance, a new owner who happens to have grown up in the state and the greatest player in the history of professional basketball...the momentum is there, but it has to be sustained. Somehow, the front office has to convince Larry Brown to commit to staying and must make the personnel moves that will maximize the roster. The wild card in Rod Higgins' pocket is $19.5 million in expiring contracts that another team might be willing to take on in exchange for an expensive piece or two with long-term deals (Chandler & Nazi). I'll be interested to see how the organization comes out of the summer and if they continue going in the right direction. Hopefully this time next year, the Bobcats will still be playing basketball and might can double its devoted fan base from 6 to 12. Time will tell.
Thursday, April 22, 2010
2010 NFL Draft Live Rundown: Do they serve alcohol in Radio City Music Hall?
I figure that since the NFL decided to move the draft to a Thursday night in direct conflict with three NBA Playoff matchups and four NHL Playoff games, they are daring me to keep up The Blue Team Live Rundown tradition. My counter-move? Transporting additional televisions downstairs and cueing up a second computer in the kitchen for optimal viewing/information/writing. Like Lebron going to the basket, I will not be denied:
It is 7:30pm. The Bulls lead Cleveland 27-20 in game 3 and the Senators lead Pittsburgh 2-0 in game 5. The NFL Network is on the big screen in HD with NHL on the PIP. ESPN Draft coverage gets the sound until I can't take anymore Berman on TV #2, & the NBA is to the far left on TV #3. Let's get it.
7:32: Welcome from the Commish, Roger Goodell. I still like this guy. Nice tie tonight, Rog.
7:34: The St. Louis Rams are on the clock.
7:35: Made the mistake of un-muting TV #1 while Michael Irvin was talking. Scrambling for the remote to alleviate the situation. I can't believe this guy is still employed given his off-field issues and on-air ineptitude.
7:36: Sam Bradford is either ordering pizza or getting congratulations from the Rams. "Yeah, I want pepperoni & pineapple on that pie...thin-and-crispy would be good".
7:37: With the first pick in the 2010 NFL Draft, the St. Louis Rams select Sam Bradford, quarterback, Oklahoma.
7:39: Hunger has set in already. I botched my pregame tonight and neglected to pick up dinner. I am now facing leftovers for the fourth night in a row (got on a cooking spree last weekend) or having to run out to grab something real fast. Decisions, decisions...
7:43: Ndamukong Suh goes #2 to Detroit. He apparently killed a tablecloth and made a shirt out of it for draft night.
7:44: An aside about Suh. I had the pleasure of seeing him play in person twice the past two years: once at Nebraska & once here in Blacksburg. Watching him walk into the tunnel at halftime last year, I realized how ginormous this dude is, his calves are the size of my waist. But he walked so lightly for a big guy. Having seen him dominate the Hokies last year, I think he is the best player I have ever seen in person while working at Tech. Better than Matty Ice even.
7:47: Pens cut the lead to 2-1. What a great place to watch a hockey game, the Igloo in Pittsburgh. Had an awesome time there three years ago. Many thanks to Jean-Claude Van Dam for saving it and the world in "Sudden Death".
7:48: Prime Time interviewing Suh on NFL Network. I think Suh just referenced the Lions' "organation". A clear slip-of-the-tongue, but humorous nonetheless. Meanwhile, Pens go on the power play.
7:52: Gerald McCoy to Tampa Bay. Nice story about his emotion tonight honoring his mama.
7:58: Trent Williams from OU goes #4 to the Deadskins. Mel Kiper Jr makes the guy sound like a workout wonder with questionable motivation. Perfect pick for the 'Skins, an underachiever. "Silverback" will fit right in.
8:02: Derrick Rose is doing work against the Cavs.
8:03: Btw, take note that OU just had three guys go in the first four picks. They might have been the best team last year, but Bradford's injury put them out of it. I'd feel bad for them if I liked the Sooners, but...I don't.
8:05: Eric Berry time, going #5 to Kansas City. Funny, most mock drafts had him falling a bit further down, even though he is the second-best player in the draft. Saw him in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl last year and he was great. His team sucked though - thanks Lane Kiffin. I like this guy, he was very highly-rated coming out of high school and has backed it up, starting for three years and going high in the draft. Definitely think KC is moving in the right direction.
8:07: Why the hell is the Tomahawk Chop playing in the background? Because the Chiefs use it too. So no, you weren't dreaming when you heard it just then, and no, FSU doesn't have anyone getting drafted this high. They sucked last year too, remember?
8:13: Long discussion regarding Seattle needing CJ Spiller here instead of a left tackle. He won't last until they pick again at #14, so I wonder if the Seahawks might not look at trading up a bit to snag him. Jacksonville at #10 perhaps? Either way, love Spiller. More on him later.
8:15: Seattle takes Russell Okung #6. Many folks just had the "OMG, he's not Asian?!?" epiphany, as Bill Simmons referenced in his mock draft on Wednesday. Too bad, he'd have really fit in perfect in Seattle had that been the case. He also would be 5-6 and 140 lbs.
8:18: Interesting spot by Coors Light. Typical "Silver Bullet" train arriving with frost-brewed refreshment, but all the actors are African-American. I don't recall Coors Light targeting the African-American demographic much in the past, at least not exclusively in a TV spot. You see this from some major brands (McDonald's comes to mind), but I find it a bit odd coming from a brand typically associated with Caucasian consumers.
8:20: Michael Smith reports Joe Haden being taken by Cleveland over Kyle Wilson, citing Haden's alma mater of Florida boasting better competition than Wright's Boise St. Terrible reason to make that pick, in my opinion. Not saying Haden is not good, just saying that logic is unreasonable.
8:23: Commish confirms the report, Haden goes #7 to the Browns. Enjoy the city with no nightlife Joe, at least according to fellow Gator alum Joakim Noah. I once wrote that the Bobcats should draft Noah. They instead took Brandan Wright, traded him to Golden St for Jason Richardson, then eventually shipped J-Rich to Phoenix for Raja Bell & Boris Diaw. So basically we traded the chance to draft Noah for Boris Diaw's $9 million/year, PLAP ass. FML.
8:26: Bobcats tangent rant over. Uncover the kids' ears.
8:27: Raiders are on the clock. Geez. I feel like it is Derrick Morgan for some reason, even though they don't really have DE high on their need list. Annnnd, nevermind, Rolando McClain is on the phone.
8:28: McClain it is to Oakland at #8. Rolando is surrounded by 2,396 of his closest friends. Mel Kiper is not impressed. I personally think he can't be terrible, a safer pick if you will, than some of the other guys available at this point.
8:31: Who the heck are all these people with McClain?
8:31b: Buffalo Bills go with my boy CJ Spiller at #9. CJ, my brother...it is cold in Buffalo. He is going to a team with Fred Jackson & Marshawn Lynch already on board. Interesting. Something tells me one of those guys, most likely Lynch, is on his way out the door. Bills really needed an o-lineman here, but I guess Spiller's ability is just too good to pass up.
8:33: When I was working at Clemson, we watched Spiller's commitment to the Tigers live online. It was a big deal for Clemson to steal a kid out of the Gators' backyard, so people really loved him from the get-go. I hope he does well and will really be pulling for him on a team I used to claim as my #1 pre-Panthers.
8:34: Flyers score to go up 3-0 on New Jersey. What a disappointing end to the Devils' season, from 2-seed to home for the summer in five games. Wow.
8:35: FYI, tonight's attire is my DeAngelo Williams Panthers jersey. Peppers' jersey has been retired for the time being. Makes me really glad my Dad dropped $30 on this one for me when we weren't sure Williams would be any good.
8:36: Cleveland is getting trounced by Chicago right now, down 21 midway through the third quarter. Yikes.
8:38: Jacksonville reaches for Tyson Alualu from Cal at #10. Wow. Never saw him this high in any mocks. Mel does not kill the pick, nor does Mike Maycock on NFL Network. But I do. If he was a possibility for the Panthers at #48, then he has no business getting drafted here.
8:39: First trade of the night, as the 49ers move up to #11, gaining the pick from Denver for their #13 & fourth-round pick. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh has tied the game vs Ottawa after a lengthy review. This series is on the brink for the Sens.
8:43: Anthony Davis goes #11 to San Francisco. Ho hum.
8:46: Another trade, Miami gives up the 12th pick to San Diego. Lots of debate as to who the Chargers are targeting: Ryan Mathews, Dan Williams, Derrick Morgan, Earl Thomas, etc. Mort thinks it is Mathews and he is correct. NFL Network just got scooped on that one. Miami got a nice package to move back here.
8:52: Philly drops two 3rd rounders & their #24 pick for the Broncos' 13th pick to take Earl Thomas. The fans' consensus? "Eagles suck". Tom Jackson has made a good point about teams that are not great right now going out to draft in areas that they were particularly good in when they were successful. San Diego gets a RB to replace LT, Philly takes a safety to replace Brian Dawkins, etc.
8:55: Jason La Confora on NFL Network reporting something...I think he was giving a presentation to his US History classmates. Dude looks straight up nerdy.
8:56: And everything just reported is wrong. Philly takes Brandon Graham at #13. Morgan & Thomas both still on the board. Jon Gruden loves this kid as does Tom Jackson. I'm clueless on this dude. All I know is he better be pretty good with all that extra practice Rich Rodriguez had the Wolverines doing last season.
8:59: Sal Pao reporting. I love Sal Pao.
9:00: Food update: I made breakfast for dinner during picks 3-5, hence why the rundown is a little thin there. Six eggs, four turkey sausage links, two packs of grits, and a whole wheat blueberry waffle. OJ to drink, hold the Bacardi. Already had dessert too: MCC ice cream with a cookie. Boom.
9:02: Deon interviewing the Iowa lineman, giving him some good-natured crap about still being on the draft board. Maycock says Seattle going with Earl Thomas, who he likes better than Eric Berry. Earl is on the phone with somebody...
9:04: Earl Thomas goes 14 to Seattle. Earl's mama hugs him forever. She is now Earl Thomas' rich mama.
9:07: Derrick texts in lamenting the Giants draft position as of now. Derrick Morgan is there for them or a trade out is a possibility according to my favorite Rhode Islander.
9:08: Lebron almost tears down the rim on a ferocious two-handed slam to cut the Bulls' lead to 9 points with 9 minutes left. Chicago is not winning this series, but they might not win a game if they blow this lead. Pens are on the power play on my PIP.
9:10: I can think of many better things than hanging out with Mike Ditka while wearing a sweater vest.
9:11: Mort weighs in on Clausen. It's San Fran at 17 or a plummet. I could see someone trading up to snag him though.
9:11b: Cavs cut it to 6 on a Delonte West three ball. Bulls are gagging.
9:12: Jason Pierre-Paul goes to NYG at 15. Jews and Guidos rejoice. The chic next to Pierre-Paul is wearing white undies as she just showed America. Thanks for that, ma'am. I'll mail you $10.
9:15: Holy crap, the dude did 14 consecutive back handsprings at the combine. I'll wear white panties the day I can do that. Question is can he sack the quarterback though.
9:17: Pittsburgh scores to go up 3-2. Is that the end for Ottawa?
9:20: Derrick Morgan finally goes #16 to Tennessee. I smell an enigma here, not sure he can dominate at the pro level. We'll see.
9:22: Senators tie it back up so no, not the end for the Sens. At least not yet.
9:25: The 49ers use the Panthers' pick at #17 to select Mike Iupati. Good thing the Panthers traded this selection last year for #43 in 2009. Whew.
9:29: Steelers take Maurkice Pouncey at #18. Make-A-Wish kid reads the pick, something really cool the NFL has started doing this year. What a neat moment for that kid.
9:30: Props to Peter King for nailing picks 17 & 18.
9:32: Atlanta goes with Sean Weatherspoon, the freak athlete linebacker from Missouri, at #19. We'll see if he's ready for my boy DeAngelo in the open field.
9:34: Ottawa survives a Penguins' power play with six minutes left while Chicago leads 104-99 late, made tougher by Hinrich bricking two free throws. Now it is 104-102 as Lebron nails a three-pointer. Seriously, that all happened in the time it took me to type the previous sentence. Now Derrick Rose has a flashback to the 2008 National Title game, bricking one of his own. Bulls by three with ten seconds left. Hockey goes from PIP to big screen, flipping with NFL Network, sound to NBA for a minute. Can't pass up a potential big moment with Marv Albert announcing.
9:36: Houston takes Kareem Jackson at #20. The Boise St DB is still available, weird.
9:38: Chicago smartly fouls Varejao on the inbounds pass, as he hits just one of two freebies.
9:39: Men across the country swoon as Erin Andrews makes an appearance from California covering Clausen, followed by Jenn Brown from Austin, TX with McCoy. The perfect trifecta is broken by some douchebag with Tebow that I didn't see in time to catch his name. Meanwhile, Cincinnati takes Jermaine Gresham, the TE from OU. Another dang Sooner. Bill Simmons predicted Gresham here I think.
9:41: Brad Miller knocks down two for the Buls, giving them a four-point lead. Pittsburgh & Ottawa heading to OT. And Mo Williams cuts the lead to one for Cleveland. Wow.
9:43: NFL Network says Demaryius Thomas to Denver at #22 and is correct. He's tall, but I've never seen him run anything other than a deep route/jump ball because of the Georgia Tech offense. He's also not as good as Dez Bryant. Have fun catching passes from Kyle Orton's mustache, Demaryius.
9:46: Chicago hangs on, barely, 108-106, as Anthony Parker misses a halfcourt heave that would have won the game. Moving on to the Lake Show visiting Kevin Durant & Co. Also, the Flyers beat Jersey 3-0 to win the series in the NHL first round.
9:49: Ed Werder reports that Josh McDaniels wanted to take Demaryius Thomas because he reminds him of Brandon Marshall, who he just traded to Miami. Um, what? That's the dumbest thing I've heard tonight, which is possible only because Michael Irvin is still muted on TV #1.
9:51: Bryan Bulaga goes to Green By at #23. Perfect fit, as Chris Berman states. Is that his girlfriend or sister he just hugged? I'm hoping sister because a) he hugged her like a sister, not a girlfriend; and b) if it is the gf, she's about to get upgraded since he's getting paid. Although, she might be the hottest girl in Green Bay. Hmm, what a debate that would be. I am probably getting in trouble right now, I better stop.
9:55: LA up 10-0 already in OKC. The Thunder are learning about the post-season right now. Chances in game two were wasted and Kobe took his game up four notches while Durant couldn't quite do it. One day, it will be Durantchula taking games over like that. And yes, that's the best nickname I've heard for the kid yet. Someone please come up with something better than that.
9:58: Dallas trades up to #24 as Todd McShay reports that the Cowboys like Dez Bryant. Spot-on Todd, as we see Bryant's people partying it up at his house. NFL Network goes to Prime Time who credits God for handling this situation. Dez is crying hysterically, as Deon mentions himself & Michael Irvin "being there" for a guy like Bryant. I guess "being there" includes meeting with the kid while he's still in college and getting him suspended for the last nine games of last season.
10:02: Controversy in the Pens game at Ottawa scores on a kicked puck it appears, leading to a review. No goal, correctly called on the ice. Cut to the reaction from the Ottawa player just in time to see him drop a Canadian F-bomb. "What's that aboot," he wonders.
10:05: For the record, I think Dez Bryant is going to be really, really good.
10:05: Huge news of the night, as Baltimore trades their pick to Denver for the Broncos to select Tim Tebow. Berman & the ESPN gang are confused as crap as to what just happened, but nonetheless, Tebow going to Denver. I love Tebow and what he stands for, but golly gee, I'm not sure this is the right move. Clausen on the board, McCoy on the board...plus Denver has Orton & Quinn already on their roster.
10:07: Denver has also made another a huge move, changing their name from the Broncos to the Boy Scouts.
10:08: Denver gave up their 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounders for this pick. Good night, what a gamble. Story of the first round, no question. Baltimore made out like bandits here, imo. I'm really happy for Tebow though.
10:10: My boy Shivers, a native Denverian...Denverer...uh, Denverite...he is from Denver. Anyway, his insight on the Tebow selection: "Brady Quinn & Tim Teabag oh dear God, this has got to be a nightmare of some sort." I think he's skeptical.
10:12: Tebow gives Jeremy Schapp a good interview while wearing a sweet teal shirt. The Broncos got themselves leader and a worker, no doubt. The parallels to Tyler Hansbrough continue.
10:13: Speaking of Psycho T, he won a National Title while at North Carolina. In case you've forgotten.
10:14: Shivers continues: "I think we should be in the freakin arena league with this draft."
10:16: Good night in Chicago sports as the Blackhawks lead Nashville 3-0 late, needing a win tonight.
10:17: Tim Tebow thanks the critics for the motivation. He won't be short on motivation I'm afraid.
10:17b: Arizona takes Dan Williams at #26. About time that dude got picked. Mel Kiper gives himself some props mentioning this is where he had Williams going in his final mock draft. Mel has had a decent night, but I think I saw his hair sweat following the Tebow pick.
10:20: Jason Spezza, one of Ottawa's best players, takes a dumb penalty for a cross check, negating the remaining :24 seconds on a Sens power play. Let's see if the Pens can capitalize on his bonehead move.
10:23: Nope. No pressure by Pittsburgh. Compounded by a Pittsburgh penalty right after the power play expires.
10:24: New England grabs Devin McCourty at 27. Two Rutgers guys in the first round. I recall Carolina beating the do-do out of the Scarlet Knights a few years ago on a Thursday night game. So there's that. But, as Gruden points out, this kid is versatile, which New England values.
10:27: Next year, I'm having people over for the draft. I need some banter and good quotes. I can't really quote myself when I'm just talking aloud to...well, myself. So, applications are being taken beginning now for the NBA Draft & NFL Draft nights at my house. BYOB and chip dip.
10:28: Speaking of, I'm hungry again. Cereal time?
10:29: Lakers by eight with seven minutes remaining in the second quarter. Double OT in the hockey game, which is a problem because the Versus coverage joins the next game in progress. We've missed all of Chicago/Nashville already and could be impeding on San Jose/Colorado, who are in a critical game five of their own.
10:30: Miami takes Jared Odrick 28th overall. Sounds like he is going to the DE spot in Miami's 3-4 defense per the analysis.
10:33: The Jets have 3:11 remaining until they make their pick. Just sayin'.
10:35: J-E-T-S take Kyle Wilson 29th. He should fit in very well as a nickel guy. Fans are excited, probably not so much because they like the pick, but more because their team had a surprisingly good season/playoff run and because they got to wait until 29th to make a pick. Keep in mind that picks are much better when you've been drinking for three hours already. I assume they serve alcohol at the draft? Someone please advise on this, I'm not sure if they do or not.
10:38: I just tried to google the answer to my question and found that a lot of people do a live blog of the NFL Draft. But, I did not find the answer to my pondering.
10:40: Jon Gruden might be tipsy, so I think they must serve alcohol at this draft. He thinks Minnesota should take Jahvid Best to add to All Day.
10:42: A lot going on here. Jason La Confora points out that Baltimore recouped everything they gave up for Anquan Boldin, but higher picks than they would have had in those rounds. Ozzie Newsome's eyes "bugged out" when he heard the offer from Denver. Duh.
10:42b: Minny trades the 30th pick to Detroit to select...Jahvid Best. Gruden was half right. He still might be tipsy, but maybe that's his general nature. I think it is safe to say that is the case after watching him tear apart the quarterbacks on the ESPN special earlier this week.
10:46: Jahvid Best is an awesome pick for the Lions if they can block anyone. What weapons on offense now for Stafford in Best & Megatron (Calvin Johnson), not to mention Kevin Smith if he can get healthy from his knee injury.
10:50: I wonder how these TV guys go about choosing suits for three national television appearances in a row? Luckily no one shopped at Craig Sager's closet, as the TNT sideline reporter has on an off-blue coat with redish shirt and tie, complete with a flower on it.
10:52: ESPN faux-pas as they come back from the 1983 montage with Gruden, not realizing his mic was up, showing Mel Kiper a text message that says "what a crazy league, a lot of dumbass picks". I told you Gruden had been sipping on the syrup during breaks.
10:54: Jerry Hughes goes to Indy at 31. I'm glad we only have one round tonight.
10:59: Blogger needs to make it easier to upload pictures. I just spent an entire commercial break uploading and formatting the picture at the top of this entry. Whew. Plus, it has screwed up the formatting of the remainder of the blog and I can't get it fixed. I need to move to Word Press.
11:02: Drew Brees comes out to read the 32nd pick for his Super Bowl Champion New Orleans Saints. That's pretty cool. Saints take Patrick Robinson to conclude Round One. Thursday night is ov-ah.
Finishing up tonight, I'm still hungry and the Pens & Sens are still playing hockey. Clausen still has no home for next year; think the Rams are going to have some calls tonight for pick #33? Better yet, do you think they regret taking Bradford 1st overall instead of Suh or trading down, then taking Clausen or McCoy to open the second round? Minnesota sits right behind them and KC is just a few picks back, so I doubt one or both of these QBs last too long Friday night.
Quickly on the Panthers, who have no selection until #48 tomorrow night...I think they go WR. Fox & Hurney are not going to draft a QB who won't help the team next year that high. Instead, if there is a new coach and/or front office following next season, I could see that regime taking on the responsibility of drafting the new franchise QB to fit their taste/scheme. It is still possible they use the 3rd rounder on a QB I suppose - hopefully my main guy, LeFevour. DE or DT would make a lot of sense in addition to WR in those first two picks. I really like Mardy Gilyard from Cincinnati myself, as he is a solid catcher of the pigskin as well as a good return guy. Tom Sorensen of the Charlotte Observer made a similar case for Dexter McCluster from Ole Miss, who is versatile in the mold of Percy Harvin. Problem is the Panthers have not exactly shown a penchant for creativity when it comes to offense and McCluster is far from a polished WR at this point. Arrelious Benn also could be an option at WR. On the defensive side, Carlos Dunlap would be great at DE. Very interesting to see where the Panthers go and perhaps even more interesting to see what happens at the top of Round Two with the aforementioned quarterbacks.
Thanks for reading, ya'll be good.
Tuesday, April 06, 2010
I Plain, Straight Hate You, But...
Three quickies from tonight's unbelievable National Championship game:
1) How do you hate Dook? I understand the rivalry, yell expletives at Duke all the time, definitely think they benefit from block/charge calls on a regular basis, want to punch Chrissy Collins in the face, & never want to see them win the title. But man, you have to respect them. They put it together year in and year out, always get everyone's best shot, and still find a way to finish in the top 10 every season. It is Coach K, his staff, their players, the program as a whole. Their players work hard, play together, defend & rebound consistently, graduate, and go on to productive lives (ok, except Shav Randolph. He just sucked for three years and rides the bench in the NBA, stealing money from whoever pays him a contract now). Look at how much Smith & Zoubek improved from last season, how hard these guys must have worked. There is clear buy-in on their team, so they maximize the potential of the whole. I never think Duke might be cheating and don't really worry about their players getting in trouble either, something you cannot say about many other elite programs (I can think of one). So, despite a great rivalry and "hatred" for the Devils, you have to respect the program.
2) I did some quick numbers work via email with a good friend today on the "best" college basketball programs in the country. Why? Because Caulton Tudor of the Raleigh News & Observer opined that Carolina has gone from way ahead of Duke to way behind Duke as a program. Needless to say, I disagree: Carolina was never "way ahead" of Duke just because of last year's title and Harrison Barnes, nor does one down season put them "way behind" either. It is Tudor's job to write something that people will read, I get that, yet his snap judgements and hyperbole are a tired act in my opinion. But, I digress. My friend and I discussed that what people frequently forget, especially those who live in the day-to-day college hoops hotbed of NC's Triangle, is that Duke & Carolina are the two best programs in the nation, period. Both now have four titles and twelve Final Four appearances since the tournament began including multiple teams from the same conference in 1975 (this according to my math today via All Brackets; correct me if I missed something). Kentucky & Indiana both have three titles while a number of teams have seven Final Four appearances. Given that the major criteria for success should be titles and Final Fours, at least in the 64/65 team tournament era, I'd say it is pretty clear that these two are the creme de la creme. Comparing them is splitting hairs at this point. Let's just acknowledge the success and greatness of both and be happy that we get to be a part of it.
3) Can you imagine if Gordon Hayward's half-court heave goes in? Seriously. You have the following:
- Cinderella winning the title
- Butler, a mid-major, topling Duke, one of the two best programs in the country (see above)
- Duke losing and Coach K sobbing unhappy tears
- Butler winning in its home city
- A huge upset from a numbers standpoint (5-seed over a 1-seed)
- The smallest school of the modern era winning the title
- One of the five best, no three best, titles games ever
- Undoubtably the best shot to win a title, somehow knocking off the insanity of Lorenzo Charles' dunk to beat Houston
- Ok fine, if that shot goes in, everyone in Chapel Hill buys a Butler t-shirt and, as former Carolina guard Bobby Frasor tweeted, Gordon Hayward's Butler jersey goes in the rafters of the Smith Center. This means I could have purchased Heyward (Jason, of the Atlanta Braves) and Hayward (Gordon, of the Butler Bulldogs) jerseys on consecutive days.
As Bill Simmons tweeted, why couldn't the Basketball Gods have let it happen? The Butler Freakin' Bulldogs as National Champions? How much different would our sports lives be? I'd watch Sportscenter for three days straight. I'd have bought a DVD of the game, a la Boise St vs Oklahoma, just because it was so darn awesome. And yes, I'd have really bought a Butler t-shirt. But alas, it was not meant to be. Instead, we have the Evil Empire as National Champions. But damnit, do I respect you, Evil Empire.
1) How do you hate Dook? I understand the rivalry, yell expletives at Duke all the time, definitely think they benefit from block/charge calls on a regular basis, want to punch Chrissy Collins in the face, & never want to see them win the title. But man, you have to respect them. They put it together year in and year out, always get everyone's best shot, and still find a way to finish in the top 10 every season. It is Coach K, his staff, their players, the program as a whole. Their players work hard, play together, defend & rebound consistently, graduate, and go on to productive lives (ok, except Shav Randolph. He just sucked for three years and rides the bench in the NBA, stealing money from whoever pays him a contract now). Look at how much Smith & Zoubek improved from last season, how hard these guys must have worked. There is clear buy-in on their team, so they maximize the potential of the whole. I never think Duke might be cheating and don't really worry about their players getting in trouble either, something you cannot say about many other elite programs (I can think of one). So, despite a great rivalry and "hatred" for the Devils, you have to respect the program.
2) I did some quick numbers work via email with a good friend today on the "best" college basketball programs in the country. Why? Because Caulton Tudor of the Raleigh News & Observer opined that Carolina has gone from way ahead of Duke to way behind Duke as a program. Needless to say, I disagree: Carolina was never "way ahead" of Duke just because of last year's title and Harrison Barnes, nor does one down season put them "way behind" either. It is Tudor's job to write something that people will read, I get that, yet his snap judgements and hyperbole are a tired act in my opinion. But, I digress. My friend and I discussed that what people frequently forget, especially those who live in the day-to-day college hoops hotbed of NC's Triangle, is that Duke & Carolina are the two best programs in the nation, period. Both now have four titles and twelve Final Four appearances since the tournament began including multiple teams from the same conference in 1975 (this according to my math today via All Brackets; correct me if I missed something). Kentucky & Indiana both have three titles while a number of teams have seven Final Four appearances. Given that the major criteria for success should be titles and Final Fours, at least in the 64/65 team tournament era, I'd say it is pretty clear that these two are the creme de la creme. Comparing them is splitting hairs at this point. Let's just acknowledge the success and greatness of both and be happy that we get to be a part of it.
3) Can you imagine if Gordon Hayward's half-court heave goes in? Seriously. You have the following:
- Cinderella winning the title
- Butler, a mid-major, topling Duke, one of the two best programs in the country (see above)
- Duke losing and Coach K sobbing unhappy tears
- Butler winning in its home city
- A huge upset from a numbers standpoint (5-seed over a 1-seed)
- The smallest school of the modern era winning the title
- One of the five best, no three best, titles games ever
- Undoubtably the best shot to win a title, somehow knocking off the insanity of Lorenzo Charles' dunk to beat Houston
- Ok fine, if that shot goes in, everyone in Chapel Hill buys a Butler t-shirt and, as former Carolina guard Bobby Frasor tweeted, Gordon Hayward's Butler jersey goes in the rafters of the Smith Center. This means I could have purchased Heyward (Jason, of the Atlanta Braves) and Hayward (Gordon, of the Butler Bulldogs) jerseys on consecutive days.
As Bill Simmons tweeted, why couldn't the Basketball Gods have let it happen? The Butler Freakin' Bulldogs as National Champions? How much different would our sports lives be? I'd watch Sportscenter for three days straight. I'd have bought a DVD of the game, a la Boise St vs Oklahoma, just because it was so darn awesome. And yes, I'd have really bought a Butler t-shirt. But alas, it was not meant to be. Instead, we have the Evil Empire as National Champions. But damnit, do I respect you, Evil Empire.
Thursday, March 18, 2010
2010 NCAA Tournament Predictions
The Blue Team does not pay, so pardon me for working the past three days and not providing any sort of follow-up to my Sunday night post of bracket thoughts. This too will likely be brief, as I am writing extemporaneously less than an hour prior to the first game.
Midwest:
1st Round - Kansas, UNI, Michigan St, Maryland, Tennessee, Georgetown, Oklahoma St, Ohio St
2nd Round - Kansas, Michigan St, Tennessee, Ohio St
Sweet 16 - Kansas, Ohio St
Elite 8 - Kansas
As tough a draw as this is for the Jayhawks, they will only have to play Michigan St OR Maryland, Ohio St OR Georgetown OR Tennessee. Prior to the pairings, I could have absolutely seen a scenario where my Final Four was KU, Ohio St, Georgetown, & Michigan St though. Regardless, the bottom half of this region will be fun to watch. Tennessee has a tough first round opponent in SDSU and will probably lose now that I've put them to the Sweet 16. I definitely think that Oklahoma St or Georgia Tech could give the Buckeyes trouble. I really like Ohio St's squad, but their lack of depth is really concerning if foul trouble becomes an issue in that second round game. Ultimately, Kansas is still the best team in the Midwest Region, and the country, and will play as such.
West:
1st Round - Syracuse, FSU, UTEP, Vandy, Xavier, Pitt, Florida, Kansas St
2nd Round - Syracuse, UTEP, Xavier, Kansas St
Sweet 16 - Syracuse, Kansas St
Elite 8 - Syracuse
First of all, let me say that I am picking a team to go to the Final Four that could lose its first-round game. I'm sure some of you saw the story of the Vermont player whose mother passed away right before the America East Tournament Final from a long bout with cancer. The Sports Guy says never bet against God or puppies, and one would have to think that God would be on this kid's side right now.
In all honesty and seriousness, I basically picked Syracuse by default on this region. The more I look at the West, the easier it is to see it totally falling apart. I don't have a lot of faith in K-State keeping its head on straight for four consecutive games, nor Pitt hitting enough shots to win multiple games. I even picked Florida to go to the Elite 8 in one bracket. I could see Vanderbilt giving Syracuse problems, as they might have the shooters to beat the vaunted 2-3 zone, but the Commodores have to get through two tough upset-minded teams first. Syracuse was the "safe pick" here and nothing more.
South:
1st Round - Duke, Cal, A&M, Purdue, ND, Baylor, Richmond, Villanova
2nd Round - Duke, A&M, Baylor, Villanova
Sweet 16 - A&M, Villanova
Elite 8 - Villanova
Everyone has been down on 'Nova for a return trip to the Final Four, mainly because they struggled a bit against big-time Big East teams late this season. I think their experience and the time they've had to rest/refocus will help the Wildcats immensely. I'm not buying erratic-yet-athletic Baylor all the way to Indianapolis myself, and you know Duke is poised for a letdown. I honestly think A&M can give Duke a tough one and pound them down low. We'll see.
East:
1st Round - UK, Texas, Temple, Wisconsin, Washington, New Mexico, Missouri, WVU
2nd Round - UK, Wisconsin, New Mexico, WVU
Sweet 16 - UK, WVU
Elite 8 - UK
No time to summarize, maybe letter. UK is good, really good.
Final Four - KU over Syracuse, UK over Villanova
Championship - KU over UK 80-72
Enjoy the tournament ya'll, go Heels. Damn.
Midwest:
1st Round - Kansas, UNI, Michigan St, Maryland, Tennessee, Georgetown, Oklahoma St, Ohio St
2nd Round - Kansas, Michigan St, Tennessee, Ohio St
Sweet 16 - Kansas, Ohio St
Elite 8 - Kansas
As tough a draw as this is for the Jayhawks, they will only have to play Michigan St OR Maryland, Ohio St OR Georgetown OR Tennessee. Prior to the pairings, I could have absolutely seen a scenario where my Final Four was KU, Ohio St, Georgetown, & Michigan St though. Regardless, the bottom half of this region will be fun to watch. Tennessee has a tough first round opponent in SDSU and will probably lose now that I've put them to the Sweet 16. I definitely think that Oklahoma St or Georgia Tech could give the Buckeyes trouble. I really like Ohio St's squad, but their lack of depth is really concerning if foul trouble becomes an issue in that second round game. Ultimately, Kansas is still the best team in the Midwest Region, and the country, and will play as such.
West:
1st Round - Syracuse, FSU, UTEP, Vandy, Xavier, Pitt, Florida, Kansas St
2nd Round - Syracuse, UTEP, Xavier, Kansas St
Sweet 16 - Syracuse, Kansas St
Elite 8 - Syracuse
First of all, let me say that I am picking a team to go to the Final Four that could lose its first-round game. I'm sure some of you saw the story of the Vermont player whose mother passed away right before the America East Tournament Final from a long bout with cancer. The Sports Guy says never bet against God or puppies, and one would have to think that God would be on this kid's side right now.
In all honesty and seriousness, I basically picked Syracuse by default on this region. The more I look at the West, the easier it is to see it totally falling apart. I don't have a lot of faith in K-State keeping its head on straight for four consecutive games, nor Pitt hitting enough shots to win multiple games. I even picked Florida to go to the Elite 8 in one bracket. I could see Vanderbilt giving Syracuse problems, as they might have the shooters to beat the vaunted 2-3 zone, but the Commodores have to get through two tough upset-minded teams first. Syracuse was the "safe pick" here and nothing more.
South:
1st Round - Duke, Cal, A&M, Purdue, ND, Baylor, Richmond, Villanova
2nd Round - Duke, A&M, Baylor, Villanova
Sweet 16 - A&M, Villanova
Elite 8 - Villanova
Everyone has been down on 'Nova for a return trip to the Final Four, mainly because they struggled a bit against big-time Big East teams late this season. I think their experience and the time they've had to rest/refocus will help the Wildcats immensely. I'm not buying erratic-yet-athletic Baylor all the way to Indianapolis myself, and you know Duke is poised for a letdown. I honestly think A&M can give Duke a tough one and pound them down low. We'll see.
East:
1st Round - UK, Texas, Temple, Wisconsin, Washington, New Mexico, Missouri, WVU
2nd Round - UK, Wisconsin, New Mexico, WVU
Sweet 16 - UK, WVU
Elite 8 - UK
No time to summarize, maybe letter. UK is good, really good.
Final Four - KU over Syracuse, UK over Villanova
Championship - KU over UK 80-72
Enjoy the tournament ya'll, go Heels. Damn.
Sunday, March 14, 2010
2010 NCAA Tournament: Thoughts & Reactions
Well, the bracket is here. Bracket Day is winding down and all that's left is to listen to Vitale ramble about making a mid-major play the Big East schedule. Oh, we already did that? Sorry. I guess all that is left then is to dish out some Blue Team-style analysis and opinions. Per tradition, we will analyze the 2010 NCAA Tournament bracket selection first, with thoughts on the field itself, seeding, and the big picture. I'm seeing some region-by-region work over the next couple of days, then the Tar Heels' path to the Final Fo-...nevermind. Maybe instead, we'll wait a few weeks then take a look at the season that was for Carolina and the seasons to come. I'm sure I'll post my predicted bracket late Wednesday or early Thursday for anyone that cares as well. For now, let's go ahead and get busy with the initial thoughts segment of our program.
In or Out: I think the committee was close to getting this right, but is inconsistent in who they put in. To me, there were two schools of thought: 1) value lots of wins over weak competition and cite the eye test; or 2) value the tough schedules and quality victories while overlooking a few blemishes. Utah State, UTEP, Virginia Tech, & Cal fall into the first group while Florida, Illinois, Minnesota, and Georgia Tech fall into the latter. Clearly, there was room for both in the tournament, but Illinois & Virginia Tech both found themselves on the outside looking in. I think, therefore, that the perceived inconsistency between these two groups actually forms a consistency of sorts: neither school of thought wins out, they just guessed on who the best candidates were. How is Utah State's resume better than Virginia Tech's? How is Florida's resume better than Illinois'? And you can cross that up too, Utah State is better than Illinois and Florida than Virginia Tech? I don't think there was a solid formula this year at all and that is probably what does not set well with some coaches. I personally felt Illinois was more deserving than VT or Utah State, but it is not the end of the world.
On a side note, Jay Bilas said that the entire argument was stupid. His point was that there is little reason to argue over who is the 34th at-large team or the "65th" best team in the field because that team will not be playing for the National Championship. I suppose he has forgotten about George Mason's Final Four run, because the Patriots were a sqaud who were admitted to the field under heavy fire and yet proved themselves more than worthy of inclusion. No doubt someone among the last four or so teams in the field will win at least one game, maybe more. I like Jay and think he does a good job, but he is wrong on this argument.
Finally, I feel bad for Virginia Tech, as the excitement around basketball was very high here in Blacksburg this season. While Seth Greenberg has taken tremendous heat, some of it justified, for the weak non-conference schedule, one should not lose cite of the weak ACC schedule the Hokies faced. This is the major problem with unbalanced scheduling, which is now present in all of the BCS Big Six leagues, sans the Pac-10. VT played Duke, Maryland, and FSU (the top three in the ACC) only once apiece and went 0-3. They played the bottom of the league (UVA, UNC, NC State, and Miami) twice each and went 6-2. Hence, 10-6 in the ACC suddenly does not look so good, you know? That portion of the schedule is completely out of control for the coaches, but it remains a fact on the resume of the Hokies and other teams. To me, this hurt Virginia Tech's chances just as much as the non-conference schedule.
Seeding: I'll be honest, I was not too down on the seeding initially. But, now that I've sat down and digested the bracket (along with some sushi), I am beginning to scratch my head. It seems that all of the Big East teams got pushed on the high end of their seeding range, especially Notre Dame & Marquette. Temple got hosed, they've been solid all year and I think their resume is much stronger than Butler, Maryland, or Vanderbilt. A 4-seed at worst, imo. Cornell also took a low spot, as did Siena, both of whom I could see in the 10-seed range. The 6-seed for Tennessee was harsh as well. I could go on for a while here, as there just is not a lot of rhyme or reason to the way these teams were seeded.
So, why is this? I think it has a lot to do with the high number of non-major teams in the field. This year's bracket includes sixteen non-Big Six conference squads seeded twelfth or higher. That's a lot, folks, 1/3 of the top forty-eight teams in the field. That is 33% more than last year based on my quick look back and math skills, both of which should be verified. My point is that I think there was a sense of comparing apples and oranges and grapes and watermelons this year instead of having an easier criteria of teams from power leagues with similar resumes. You can thank the down year from the Pac-10 for blessing us with those extra spots. Instead of six Pac-10 teams getting into the field like last year, we had two. That left four more spots for other leagues to essentially fill in, which gave us the 33% increase in teams from outside the Big Six among the 12-seeds and higher.
Big Picture: This tournament bracket is imbalanced, period. Take a look at Kansas. Oh, Kansas. There was not much doubt in my mind who to pick this year at any point in the season until seeing the Midwest region. A road that goes through 28-4 Northern Iowa or UNLV, then Michigan St/Maryland, Ohio St/Georgetown/Tennessee? Wow. Let me put it this way: if Carolina was having a normal year and was a 1-seed stuck with the path Kansas just got, I'd be livid. The saving grace for KU is that the bottom of the Midwest region could blow up, because the 7, 10, & 11 seeds are all capable of beating any team, any place, any time. It looks to me like there are no less than five teams in this region that could earn a Final Four berth: KU, Ohio St, Georgetown, Michigan St, & Tennessee.
Kentucky and the East region is no walk in the park either. That tantilizing matchup with former number one Texas looms in the second round, with an experienced, physical team likely waiting in the Sweet 16 in the form of Wisconsin or Temple. West Virginia has been playing incredible ball the few weeks, but could have a rough time with Clemson or Missouri in the second round. I'm interested to see what Washington can do now that they're healthy and playing focused ball as well.
On the flip side, both the South & West regions are much softer. Duke itself is a weak 1-seed, as I think their style could lead to them exiting before Indianapolis this season. Villanova has struggled down the stretch, but has the experience and players to return to the Final Four. None of the other teams really jump out of the South region as scary: Baylor is erratic, Purdue is without Hummel, Texas A&M has trouble scoring...the list goes on. Notre Dame is finally starting to click, but I wonder about their ability to continue playing at a high level. I saw a great tweet earlier as well, basically saying that Louisville would either beat Duke or lose by 26 points. I'd take it a step further and say Louisville could see the Elite 8 or lose by 26 points to California - they are that maddening. To me, this is the region most likely to implode and give us a number of upsets.
Syracuse becomes a default selection of sorts in the West region, as they are definitely the best team out there. Pittsburgh & Vanderbilt are both squads I felt would be ripe for disappointment entering the tournament and somehow they ended up 3 and 4-seeds respectively in the West. It is not quite equal to the famed UCLA Invitational of 2008, but I think Syracuse got a break. I will admit to wondering if the committee might have considered this a tradeoff for sending them out west to begin with. I know things aren't supposed to work like that, but the thought crossed my mind nonetheless. Kansas St is strong at the bottom of the bracket, but they have a habit of hurting themselves with bad shots and missed free throws. They are talented, but I'm just not sure they can focus for four straight games and earn their way into the Final Four.
We'll take a more in-depth look at the regions the next couple of days and delve into some potential matchups and extended runs. I know that a lot of you readers (a lot if a relative term when there aren't many readers, but whatever) are Carolina fans and alums who are bummed that the beloved Heels are not part of March Madness. Take this season to relax and gain some further perspective on how fortunate we are to cheer for a team that not only participates in the NCAA Tournament most every March, but wins lots of games and some championships too. There is a reason that Roy Williams mentions in almost every winning post-game press conference that "we feel very fortunate to have won tonight" - because they are. I love March Madness for all of the pomp and circumstance around it, but especially when it involves Carolina. Just think, it will make it that much sweeter when we're back in the tournament and spitting nails over a bad call or just chewing on nails in the final two minutes of a tight game. 2005 does not happen without 8-20 and 201X might not happen without this year's NIT. We'll be back.
Happy March Madness to all and to all a good night.
In or Out: I think the committee was close to getting this right, but is inconsistent in who they put in. To me, there were two schools of thought: 1) value lots of wins over weak competition and cite the eye test; or 2) value the tough schedules and quality victories while overlooking a few blemishes. Utah State, UTEP, Virginia Tech, & Cal fall into the first group while Florida, Illinois, Minnesota, and Georgia Tech fall into the latter. Clearly, there was room for both in the tournament, but Illinois & Virginia Tech both found themselves on the outside looking in. I think, therefore, that the perceived inconsistency between these two groups actually forms a consistency of sorts: neither school of thought wins out, they just guessed on who the best candidates were. How is Utah State's resume better than Virginia Tech's? How is Florida's resume better than Illinois'? And you can cross that up too, Utah State is better than Illinois and Florida than Virginia Tech? I don't think there was a solid formula this year at all and that is probably what does not set well with some coaches. I personally felt Illinois was more deserving than VT or Utah State, but it is not the end of the world.
On a side note, Jay Bilas said that the entire argument was stupid. His point was that there is little reason to argue over who is the 34th at-large team or the "65th" best team in the field because that team will not be playing for the National Championship. I suppose he has forgotten about George Mason's Final Four run, because the Patriots were a sqaud who were admitted to the field under heavy fire and yet proved themselves more than worthy of inclusion. No doubt someone among the last four or so teams in the field will win at least one game, maybe more. I like Jay and think he does a good job, but he is wrong on this argument.
Finally, I feel bad for Virginia Tech, as the excitement around basketball was very high here in Blacksburg this season. While Seth Greenberg has taken tremendous heat, some of it justified, for the weak non-conference schedule, one should not lose cite of the weak ACC schedule the Hokies faced. This is the major problem with unbalanced scheduling, which is now present in all of the BCS Big Six leagues, sans the Pac-10. VT played Duke, Maryland, and FSU (the top three in the ACC) only once apiece and went 0-3. They played the bottom of the league (UVA, UNC, NC State, and Miami) twice each and went 6-2. Hence, 10-6 in the ACC suddenly does not look so good, you know? That portion of the schedule is completely out of control for the coaches, but it remains a fact on the resume of the Hokies and other teams. To me, this hurt Virginia Tech's chances just as much as the non-conference schedule.
Seeding: I'll be honest, I was not too down on the seeding initially. But, now that I've sat down and digested the bracket (along with some sushi), I am beginning to scratch my head. It seems that all of the Big East teams got pushed on the high end of their seeding range, especially Notre Dame & Marquette. Temple got hosed, they've been solid all year and I think their resume is much stronger than Butler, Maryland, or Vanderbilt. A 4-seed at worst, imo. Cornell also took a low spot, as did Siena, both of whom I could see in the 10-seed range. The 6-seed for Tennessee was harsh as well. I could go on for a while here, as there just is not a lot of rhyme or reason to the way these teams were seeded.
So, why is this? I think it has a lot to do with the high number of non-major teams in the field. This year's bracket includes sixteen non-Big Six conference squads seeded twelfth or higher. That's a lot, folks, 1/3 of the top forty-eight teams in the field. That is 33% more than last year based on my quick look back and math skills, both of which should be verified. My point is that I think there was a sense of comparing apples and oranges and grapes and watermelons this year instead of having an easier criteria of teams from power leagues with similar resumes. You can thank the down year from the Pac-10 for blessing us with those extra spots. Instead of six Pac-10 teams getting into the field like last year, we had two. That left four more spots for other leagues to essentially fill in, which gave us the 33% increase in teams from outside the Big Six among the 12-seeds and higher.
Big Picture: This tournament bracket is imbalanced, period. Take a look at Kansas. Oh, Kansas. There was not much doubt in my mind who to pick this year at any point in the season until seeing the Midwest region. A road that goes through 28-4 Northern Iowa or UNLV, then Michigan St/Maryland, Ohio St/Georgetown/Tennessee? Wow. Let me put it this way: if Carolina was having a normal year and was a 1-seed stuck with the path Kansas just got, I'd be livid. The saving grace for KU is that the bottom of the Midwest region could blow up, because the 7, 10, & 11 seeds are all capable of beating any team, any place, any time. It looks to me like there are no less than five teams in this region that could earn a Final Four berth: KU, Ohio St, Georgetown, Michigan St, & Tennessee.
Kentucky and the East region is no walk in the park either. That tantilizing matchup with former number one Texas looms in the second round, with an experienced, physical team likely waiting in the Sweet 16 in the form of Wisconsin or Temple. West Virginia has been playing incredible ball the few weeks, but could have a rough time with Clemson or Missouri in the second round. I'm interested to see what Washington can do now that they're healthy and playing focused ball as well.
On the flip side, both the South & West regions are much softer. Duke itself is a weak 1-seed, as I think their style could lead to them exiting before Indianapolis this season. Villanova has struggled down the stretch, but has the experience and players to return to the Final Four. None of the other teams really jump out of the South region as scary: Baylor is erratic, Purdue is without Hummel, Texas A&M has trouble scoring...the list goes on. Notre Dame is finally starting to click, but I wonder about their ability to continue playing at a high level. I saw a great tweet earlier as well, basically saying that Louisville would either beat Duke or lose by 26 points. I'd take it a step further and say Louisville could see the Elite 8 or lose by 26 points to California - they are that maddening. To me, this is the region most likely to implode and give us a number of upsets.
Syracuse becomes a default selection of sorts in the West region, as they are definitely the best team out there. Pittsburgh & Vanderbilt are both squads I felt would be ripe for disappointment entering the tournament and somehow they ended up 3 and 4-seeds respectively in the West. It is not quite equal to the famed UCLA Invitational of 2008, but I think Syracuse got a break. I will admit to wondering if the committee might have considered this a tradeoff for sending them out west to begin with. I know things aren't supposed to work like that, but the thought crossed my mind nonetheless. Kansas St is strong at the bottom of the bracket, but they have a habit of hurting themselves with bad shots and missed free throws. They are talented, but I'm just not sure they can focus for four straight games and earn their way into the Final Four.
We'll take a more in-depth look at the regions the next couple of days and delve into some potential matchups and extended runs. I know that a lot of you readers (a lot if a relative term when there aren't many readers, but whatever) are Carolina fans and alums who are bummed that the beloved Heels are not part of March Madness. Take this season to relax and gain some further perspective on how fortunate we are to cheer for a team that not only participates in the NCAA Tournament most every March, but wins lots of games and some championships too. There is a reason that Roy Williams mentions in almost every winning post-game press conference that "we feel very fortunate to have won tonight" - because they are. I love March Madness for all of the pomp and circumstance around it, but especially when it involves Carolina. Just think, it will make it that much sweeter when we're back in the tournament and spitting nails over a bad call or just chewing on nails in the final two minutes of a tight game. 2005 does not happen without 8-20 and 201X might not happen without this year's NIT. We'll be back.
Happy March Madness to all and to all a good night.
2010 NCAA Tournament Bracket Prognostication
Just because it is tradition, here is my final bracket prognostication for the 2010 NCAA Tournament:
Midwest (1):
1. Kansas
2. Georgetown
3. Purdue
4. Tennessee
5. Maryland
6. BYU
7. Oklahoma St
8. Notre Dame
9. St. Mary's
10. ODU
11. UTEP
12. Siena
13. Cornell
14. North Texas
15. Vermont
16. Robert Morris
West (4):
1. Duke
2. West Virginia
3. Temple
4. Baylor
5. Butler
6. Michigan St
7. Gonzaga
8. Missouri
9. Louisville
10. San Diego St
11. Goergia Tech
12. Florida
13. Oakland
14. Murray St
15. Lehigh
16. ETSU
East (2):
1. Kentucky
2. Kansas St
3. Villanova
4. New Mexico
5. Texas A&M
6. Richmond
7. Northern Iowa
8. Clemson
9. Marquette
10. Washington
11. Wake Forest
12. Illinois
13. Ohio U
14. UCSB
15. Montana
16. Winthrop vs Ark Pine Bluff
South (3):
1. Syracuse
2. Ohio St
3. Pittsburgh
4. Wisconsin
5. Vanderbilt
6. Texas
7. Xavier
8. FSU
9. Cal
10. UNLV
11. Utah St
12. Houston
13. New Mexico St
14. Wofford
15. Sam Houston St
16. Morgan St
I have the least confidence in Utah State being a part of this tournament of the teams most are projecting in, along with Florida. I really think Illinois gets in based on 5-9 vs the RPI top 50. Utah State, on the other hand, is only 2-1 against the RPI top 50. I think Florida's overall resume is stronger than Utah State, Virginia Tech, or Mississippi St, giving the nod to the Gators. So, for the record, Florida is my last team in, then Minnesota, then Illinois. The first teams out would be Utah State, Virginia Tech, Mississippi St, Seton Hall, & Rhode Island. Also, I just changed my mind six times on Utah State/Minnesota/Florida before settling on the above. It does seem to me that Utah State and Virginia Tech would have good arguments, so 3 out of 5 from the last three in/first two out should be the final bracket.
I will say that I hope the Hokies get in the tournament, I'm just not convinced that such a weak non-conference schedule, combined with the easiest ACC schedule within the league, can be rewarded despite a 23-8/10-6 record. Stressful time for the hoops fans and staff here in Blacksburg.
Merry Bracket Day to you all.
Midwest (1):
1. Kansas
2. Georgetown
3. Purdue
4. Tennessee
5. Maryland
6. BYU
7. Oklahoma St
8. Notre Dame
9. St. Mary's
10. ODU
11. UTEP
12. Siena
13. Cornell
14. North Texas
15. Vermont
16. Robert Morris
West (4):
1. Duke
2. West Virginia
3. Temple
4. Baylor
5. Butler
6. Michigan St
7. Gonzaga
8. Missouri
9. Louisville
10. San Diego St
11. Goergia Tech
12. Florida
13. Oakland
14. Murray St
15. Lehigh
16. ETSU
East (2):
1. Kentucky
2. Kansas St
3. Villanova
4. New Mexico
5. Texas A&M
6. Richmond
7. Northern Iowa
8. Clemson
9. Marquette
10. Washington
11. Wake Forest
12. Illinois
13. Ohio U
14. UCSB
15. Montana
16. Winthrop vs Ark Pine Bluff
South (3):
1. Syracuse
2. Ohio St
3. Pittsburgh
4. Wisconsin
5. Vanderbilt
6. Texas
7. Xavier
8. FSU
9. Cal
10. UNLV
11. Utah St
12. Houston
13. New Mexico St
14. Wofford
15. Sam Houston St
16. Morgan St
I have the least confidence in Utah State being a part of this tournament of the teams most are projecting in, along with Florida. I really think Illinois gets in based on 5-9 vs the RPI top 50. Utah State, on the other hand, is only 2-1 against the RPI top 50. I think Florida's overall resume is stronger than Utah State, Virginia Tech, or Mississippi St, giving the nod to the Gators. So, for the record, Florida is my last team in, then Minnesota, then Illinois. The first teams out would be Utah State, Virginia Tech, Mississippi St, Seton Hall, & Rhode Island. Also, I just changed my mind six times on Utah State/Minnesota/Florida before settling on the above. It does seem to me that Utah State and Virginia Tech would have good arguments, so 3 out of 5 from the last three in/first two out should be the final bracket.
I will say that I hope the Hokies get in the tournament, I'm just not convinced that such a weak non-conference schedule, combined with the easiest ACC schedule within the league, can be rewarded despite a 23-8/10-6 record. Stressful time for the hoops fans and staff here in Blacksburg.
Merry Bracket Day to you all.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)