This Guy Oozes Upside...He's Long

With the NBA Draft fast approaching (as in this Thursday night), a few passing thoughts on what may or may not go down.

1. The #1 pick - It'll be Derrick Rose. Although Beasley may be a better fit short-term, Rose could turn into a great team leader on a title contender. It seems that a lot of people have criticized Rose's game recently, but I think many are forgetting that he's just 19 years old. His game will improve. Is he as polished as Deron Williams was when he was the #3 pick in 2005? Of course not, Williams had played two additional years in college and worked on his game in that time. So, Rose will get better and, pending good health, be a great NBA point guard for years to come. The bigger issue for Chicago is the rest of the team. Trading Kurt Hinrich now, with his value at its lowest point, would be short-sighted. I think they are still a good player or two away from competing in the East with Boston, Detroit, Orlando, or Cleveland, so playing out the upcoming season with both Hinrich and Rose might be their best option. Let Hinrich play his value back up and then pair him with Nocioni or a re-signed Ben Gordon and try to find a solid low-block player. So, the real impact of drafting Rose remains to be seen over a season or two.

2. The #2 pick - will Miami trade it? ESPN has been reporting this possibility (which has to be annoying to the teams and their decision-makers. Would you want everyone to know your business?) for the past day or so. It seems that they will, and they should if they do not feel that Beasley is the best fit for their team. I question a Mayo/Wade backcourt, but I think that combination might be better than drafting Beasley and trading Marion (or Haslam). If the Heat can figure out a way to draft Mayo and pick up something in return, then this will be a great draft for them. That being said, if Mayo is their guy, then just draft him at #2 as opposed to moving down (such as to #7 in a trade with the Clippers) and settling for another guy.

3. The Lottery - what a jumbled mess the lottery looks right now. I challenge you to find consistency in the experts' Mock Drafts, even a day before the actual draft. Outside of Rose, Beasley, and to a certain extent, Mayo, there is little consensus among GM's, scouts, writers, or fans. I attribute this to the youth of many of these talented players. Imagine looking at half a painting; you would have little clue as to what the finished product will look like. Will it be a $200 piece of art? $2,000? $200,000? Or will it look like I painted it (um, that's not a good thing. Think finger painting from pre-school)? That's what teams are having to try and do with many of these prospects. Some are going to be hits, others misses. Unfortunately, that is just the nature of the draft nowadays.

4. The Upside Guys - unfinished or not, there are some players that might be drafted a bit later that I think could be really good. Donte Greene jumps out at me, the 6-9 forward from Syracuse. Darrell Arthur of Kansas also, but to a lesser extent, at the same position. I like Marreese Speights from Florida as well as Koufos from Ohio State as more low-block guys. Koufos, in the right system, could really be good, a la Mehmet Okur. He could also be the next Primoz Brezec. And just writing Primoz Brezec made me throw up a bit in my mouth. I'm not a huge fan of many of the guards outside of the top 10 or so, but Brandon Rush should be solid. Bill Walker has outstanding talent if he can overcome his injury issues (not that I find that possibility to be particularly promising). Personally, I am a supporter of Kyle Weaver. Again, in the right system, Weaver will serve as a solid backup who contributes some points, but mostly great D, good rebounding for a guard, and smart hustle plays. JR Giddens and James Gist also seem like possible late-second sleepers.

5. The Bobcats - last topic here are my hometown Bobcats. The Bobcats have never been so bad, nor had tremendous draft lottery luck, to gain a top talent in a good draft (although they did trade up to take Okafor in 2004). Okafor, Felton, Morrison, and Wright (traded for Jason Richardson) have been the first selections thus far. Not exactly a homerun, superstar player among that group. Well, this year is not different. Barring an aggressive and expensive move into the top 3, the Bobcats will be forced to select another quality player or two and continue to lack a dominate force on both ends of the floor. No Kobe, no LeBron, no Carmelo...not even a Joe Johnson or Chris Bosh type of second-tier star. Gerald Wallace and Jason Richardson are great players, but neither can be the unstoppable force to lead this team to a title. Thus, the Bobcats continue to stockpile young players and hope that land enough assets to make a good trade in a year or two...at least that's what I hope they are doing.

So what do the Cats do Thursday night? Well, drafting #9 and now #20 (added a pick from Denver today for a future protected 1st rounder), the Fightin' Bobs have the chance to fill both their needs in the first round - PG and C. All the talk of Brook Lopez at #9 makes me a bit queasy, but he would fill a team need. I honestly might prefer him on this squad than Kevin Love (a slow 4 man) or Anthony Randolph (he weighs like 87 pounds or something) even though his defense is fairly lacking. But, with good coaching (which it seems the Cats may have in Larry Brown), he could improve greatly. Roy Hibbert has apparently also caught the attention of the Charlotte staff, which I thought was an awful thing last year. However, he could be more ready to contribute now than anyone else taken with our high pick, so grabbing him at number 20 would be ok.

The biggest problem the Bobcats had this past season was defending the other teams with a versatile 4 man. Guys like Bosh, Lewis, Dirk and Marion constantly gave Okafor fits and foul trouble and made our bench guys look bad. Finding a constant low-post scorer that can also guard this position would be ideal, but guys like Arthur and Randolph have seen their stock tumble. I do think finding a backup point guard (or potential starter if Felton is not going to be the guy long-term) is important, but not worth a high selection. All that being said, I'm cool with drafting Lopez at #9 and Donte Greene at #20 or taking Joe Alexander (if he's available) at #9 and Hibbert at #20. Then, they can draft a backup point guard in the second round (Kyle Weaver anyone?).

I'm excited about this draft, but not as much as recent years. I really think this could be a great draft if a lot of these "upside" guys pan out, but it could look like the 2001 draft if they do not. Just a lot of bang or bust potential here. That being said, I'll probably have some immediate thoughts posted after the draft. I doubt it will be a "running diary" per say, but some time-stamped, draft pick-stamped thoughts nonetheless.

Stuntin' like my daddy...