2012 NBA Draft Preview

At the risk of divorce, let’s weigh in on some 2012 NBA Draft thoughts prior to tonight’s festivities – live from Punta Cana, Dominican Republic. I'm freshly married, slightly sunburned, and very anxious to see what the Charlotte Bobcats do to change the path of the franchise this evening. Without further adieu, let me get under a cabana and lay it out for you.



The Lottery:


Pick 1: New Orleans – Anthony Davis


Pick 2: Charlotte – trade with Cleveland for #4, #32, & #33. Cavs take Bradley Beal


Pick 3: Washington – Michael Kidd-Gilchrest. This is a really important pick here, as taking Barnes over MKG changes a lot for the remainder of the lottery. I think we can safely assume Beal is gone at #3, as I think Charlotte almost has to settle for one of the trade options that would still net them Thomas Robinson. The question is whether that comes from Washington or Cleveland, and the Cavs have better assets right now.


Pick 4: Cleveland – aforementioned trade with Charlotte. Bobcats take Thomas Robinson - see below for further thoughts


Pick 5: Sacramento – trade with Houston for #12 & #18 or a pick & Kyle Lowry. Rockets take Andre Drummond. I love what Darryl Morely is trying to do - convert numerous assets into 2-3 major assets.  Is it a gamble? Of course, but a calculated one.  Gather pieces, evaluate for a few years, decide who is expendable, then make some moves and get the pieces you ultimately need.  I hope it works out for him & their franchise, the NBA is more fun when Houston is good.


Pick 6: Portland – Damian Lillard


Pick 7: Golden State – Dion Waiters


Pick 8: Toronto – I think they trade out of this pick in most scenarios, but not if Harrison Barnes hangs around. They keep it & draft him here.


Pick 9: Detroit – Tyler Zeller – can bang & pick-and-roll, solid rebounder, better fit at center spot for Detroit than Henson would be. Drafting Henson would force them to keep Greg Monroe at center, which does not seem to be their plan (nor should it be). Zeller makes more sense here.


Pick 10: New Orleans – Austin Rivers. Chad Ford, among others, has dubbed him the most-polarizing player in the draft. My take, which will likely be mentioned again later, is if he learns how to be a scoring point guard, then he’s one of the 3-5 best players in this draft. If he tries to be exclusively a shooting guard, he’ll be a bench scoring ball-hog and nothing more – Ricky Davis or Jamal Crawford at best.


Pick 11: Portland – Myers Leonard


Pick 12: Houston – traded to Sacramento, who I’m not sure would keep both picks. Sounds like they want a veteran or two more than more young players. I don’t like the idea of giving up on Tyreke Evans so soon, I think he’ll be much better moved back to a guard spot – better meaning both happier & more effective. Anyway, Sacto takes Terrance Ross here if they keep the pick.


Pick 13: Phoenix – Terrance Jones


Pick 14: Milwaukee – Fab Melo (way too high, I know)


The Bobcats:


For Charlotte, tonight means a lot – getting a good player, filling needs, trying to put some salve on the sting of losing out on Anthony Davis. I’ve been consistent in saying Bradley Beal is the second-best prospect in the draft, but it just doesn’t seem like MJ & Co are that interested in taking him, even before the Ben Gordon trade (which I liked pretty well, by the way). Thomas Robinson is a decent enough selection and was a great college player, but it’s just really hard to see him improving a ton. Adding a jumper to play pick-and-roll in the new offense is essential to his success, and I think he has the tools to do it without much problem. However, in the short-term, selecting Robinson will make the likelihood of moving Tyrus Thomas for a bag of chips increase. He & his terrible salary have got to go if the Cats have Robinson & Biyombo already, perhaps in exchange for an equally-useless contract that at least plays small forward. Biyombo was drafted with the idea of playing power forward long-term, and so would Robinson, but Cho & Higgins have both said numerous times recently that they are most concerned about getting talent than exactly how all the pieces fit.


To me, the above scenario is about the best option for Charlotte if they have honed in on Robinson – pick up some additional assets and still get the guy they seem to want. Having picks 31, 33, & 34 could allow the Cats to pair two of those together to move back into the late first round as well, targeting teams who enjoy don’t want the higher salary guarantee next season & could look to draft-and-stash a guy as well. Memphis (pressed against the cap), Chicago or San Antonio could all make sense (past stashers). I could also see a scenario developing where Sacramento finally decides to move up for Robinson, but they’d have to really overwhelm Charlotte with an offer to take the guy Charlotte seems to want.


The other trade option has long been using pick numero dos to acquire a veteran scorer – Rudy Gay & James Harden having both been mentioned. I’d be here until the draft listing the reasons I don’t like that option, so we’ll just summarize by saying “no por favor”.


The Tar Heels:


Lastly, at least for this afternoon, Kendall Marshall is the only remaining UNC draftee I have not yet mentioned. It seems that unless someone really falls in love with him and trades up, he’ll likely fall to at least Dallas at #17, if not further. I would not be surprised at all to see a team take Marquis Teague ahead of him, as today’s game seems to really value speed at the point guard spot. Remember, teams are drafting prospects, not just players as they are now. Marshall will be great on the right team – I really believe that – but there are plenty of “bad” spots for him that I just hope pass him by. Either way, four more UNC guys are going in the first round tonight, making the NBA Draft another #GDTBATH.